Kentucky Derby Prep Races – The Florida Derby Picks

Weekend Kentucky Derby Prep Race Analysis by Chris Pomerleau

This weekend there are three prep races with the Florida Derby at Gulfstream, the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn and the Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway Park.  I have been in south Florida this week soaking up the sun preparing for the Florida Derby which I believe is going to be a great race.  For this write up I will focus on the Florida Derby details and watch the other two prep races, stop back later this week to see my updated Derby rankings coming out of the weekend and I’ll share some of my experiences from spending the week at Gulfstream.

(Race 14) Saturday at Gulfstream Park 6:38pm est G1 FLORIDA DERBY; 1 1/8 mile on dirt.

There is expected rain in the forecast mid-afternoon which could impact the race.  If things do go to an off-track give (2) Classic Causeway and (6) Charge It an upgrade. 

Pace visual out of the gate based on pace type and early speed (Quirin Points).

Pace Analysis…

• Classic Causeway breaks so well from the gate, and I expect him to do the same thing here grabbing the front end into the first turn. It shouldn’t be any secret that Charge It runs hard from the 6-post to get alongside CC.  Simplification from the 3-post should be able to get set up well right behind the front runners.
• There is a total of (35) Quirin Points but when you look at the visual above it looks like the bulk of the field wants to get forwardly placed, advantage to the inside horses. 

Stats of Note in 3-year-old Graded Stakes races at the Fairgrounds

• Of (40) 3yo Graded Stakes the favorites win (48%) and horses 5:1 or less win (75%).
• Of 9-furlong races (20%) go wire to wire; the Early Speed bias is (20%). The average beaten lengths are (4.0) at 1^st call and (2.7) for 2^nd Off the pace horses tend to have an advantage here.
• Average Par Speed of the winner is a (103). Simplification earned a (103) back in October,  Pappacap is within range  with a (100) earned in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, Charge It makes just his 3^rd start and some feel this may be the one and can take a big step forward.  Cajun’s Magic ran a (103) back in September, that is really the top speed figure horses in the race.

TRIP NOTES 

#1 Strike Hard (20:1)

Finished fourth in Sam F. Davis Derby. Ran to the back out of the gate, made move on first turn . Moved up slightly on back stretch running 3-wide into final turn. Had to go 5 wide into stretch. Not easiest trip but appeared to be outmatched.

#2 Classic Causeway (7:2)

Smooth out of the gate and got to the front rail well. Wire to wire but never really pushed.  Will be interested to see what he does with more pressure.

#3 Simplification (5:2)

He moved well out of the gate moved well into rail slot behind the front runner. Ran wide on the turn moving well and took over in the stretch.  I like his versatility coming from off the pace.

Simplification is the #2

#4 King of Truth (50:1)

Last race was on turf. Broke well and ran in 2 path on the turn. Ran just off the leader into the final turn. Out dueled in the stretch, hung on for 2nd but two others were gaining. (X) 

#5 Pappacap (10:1)

Broke well from the gate on the rail. Had a good trip around and was gifted the rail by front running Epicenter. Flattened in the stretch and was passed by several. (X)

#6 Charge It (7:2)

Won MSW, was the heavy favorite. Far outside post and broke well. Got to the front and controlled the front on the backstretch. Easy win and never urged.

Charge It is the #10

#7 White Abarrio (3:1)

Broke well and ran behind leader in the 2 path. Ran past the front runner in the final turn. Never really faced any trouble while Simplification was wide.

#8 Cajun’s Magic (30:1)

Broke well and was forwardly placed into first turn along the rail. Had the rail into final turn and was moved outside to pass and flattened in stretch.

#9 O Captain (20:1)

Ran 3rd in the Fountain of Youth. Slid over nicely out of the gate . Ran at the back throughout the back stretch. Slid past the spill in front of him and finished strong down the stretch to get 3rd. Consider him for the back end of verticals. (+)

#10 Clapton (30:1)

Broke well and ran outside the front runner. Moved on the turn and wasn’t asked for much. Not a tough trip but am intrigued.

#11 Steal Sunshine (30:1)

Finished 2nd in Allowance. Ran at the back out of the gate as pace setter ran very quick 21.97 as the field was distanced. 45 second fraction and showed on screen heading into the stretch. Didn’t look impressive, benefactor of pace. (-)  

Florida Derby Picks:

This appears to be a four-horse race on paper.  All Classic Causeway has done is win two big races at Tampa and look strong doing it.  The thing he hasn’t faced is have another horse run with him adding pace pressure.  I believe CC and Charge It will get locked up on the front end and run some quick fractions.  Therefore, I believe the pace sets up for 3 SIMPLIFICATION.  He has a great post position from the 3-spot and should be able to sit off the pace into the final turn and run the top 2 down in the stretch.  6 CHARGE IT is taking a big step up, I did see him the other day while schooling and have to say he looks very impressive, the trendy horse for sure but I want a little more than what the M/L odds are giving me to place him on top.  I will place the Saffie Joseph trained 7 WHITE ABARRIO 3^rd as he can also win off the pace and Saffie at Gulfstream wins at a (21%) clip.  I’ll round it out with 2 CLASSIC CAUSEWAY,  as noted above he has done nothing wrong, but I think he gets more pace pressure here and will have to outkick the competition.  Good luck and enjoy your day of racing!

FLORIDA DERBY PICKS: