Kentucky Derby Prep Race Picks
We are yet another week closer to the first weekend in May at Churchill Downs. The busiest prep race weekend to date and I am going to focus the energy this week in drilling down into the Fountain of Youth which is a prep race to not only the Kentucky Derby but also the Florida Derby which is a month away. Let’s dive in on the race details.
(Race 12) 5:42pm est GRADE 2 FOUNTAIN OF YOUTH; GULFSTREAM 1 1/16 MILE ON DIRT
Pace visual out of the gate based on pace type and early speed (Quirin Points).
Fountain of Youth Quirin Points
Saddle Cloth and Pace Type of each entry
If Pace Makes the race…
- There are (4) Early Speed horses who are going to need to get to the front. They should set the pace early and break away from the pack. I would look for a Presser or EP who is comfortable running several lengths off the pace that can close.
- There is a total of (70) Quirin Points which means the pace should be hot.
Stats of Note in 3-year-old Graded Stakes races at Gulfstream Park
- Of (32) 3yo Graded Stakes the favorites win (47%) and horses 5:1 or less win (75%).
- Of (10) 8.5f races (30%) go wire to wire. Early Speed (E/EP) type runners won (100%) of all the races. The average beaten lengths are (0.9) at 1st call and (.5) for 2nd
- There is a bias on the rail (30%) wins and to the outside posts 8+ (23%).
- Average Par Speed of winner is a (97).
(1) MARKHAMIAN
Trip Notes: Winner last race in stakes race at Tampa Bay downs. Clean break and got to the front on the rail. Head-to-head with 11:1 horse with a quick quarter 22.2./44.8 half. Pushed on the final turn appeared to be passed by the two horses to the outside. Had the inside lane on the stretch but the passing two looked gassed and just quit. Like the fight setting the fractions, just concerned if that happens verse a much better field.
(2) SIMPLIFICATION
Trip Notes: Finished 2nd in Holy Bull. Off slow, 3 wide into first turn. Stayed wide along the backstretch. Was moving forward on the turn, 4-wide heading in the stretch. Had a tough trip and flattened in stretch staying ahead of Mo Donegal who got 3rd. For an Early Speed horse who left the gate poorly he ran well. (+)
Simplification is the 4 in this race.
(3) HOWLING TIME
Trip Notes: In the Kentucky juvenile he broke well and got to the front and maintain the rail heading into the first turn, went wide and recollected to get back on the rail. Ran confidently on the front with average fraction 23.95/48.74. Once the pressure came half-way into final turn, he looked inferior. Flattened hard in stretch, had perfect trip. No excuses finishing 5th, 8-lengths off the winner. (-)
(4) IN DUE TIME
Trip Notes: Won last start in Optional Claiming, respectable pace figures. Was the rail in gate with scratch, pushed well out of the gate and got positioned behind the front runners. Advanced well just behind the front runner along the rail. Taken back a bit into the turn with a quick 2nd fraction. Moved off the rail into the stretch going 3 wide. Ran well but the front speed was gassed. Got a good trip. (-)
(5) DEAN DELIVERS
Trip Notes: Finished 2nd in G3 Swale. Broke well and was positioned behind the outside speed. Ran in the 3 spot, quick fraction 22.3, 44.8. Passed the tired runners and swung 3-wide. Outrun to his outside but was running hard in the stretch. Gallop out was good as he ran off the screen past the winner. (+)
Dean Delivers is the 4 in this race.
(6) RATTLE N ROLL
Trip Notes: Long layoff as last race was BC Futility which he won. Has yet to win off the bench with a couple of nice 5f works. Positioned well into the first turn along the rail behind the front runners. 22.8/46.7 fractions, rail opened, and he moved with ease on the back stretch. Had a whole other gear into the final turn and moved quick to the outside. 3-wide into the turn as front runners appeared to have little left. Moved away down the stretch and looked good doing it. Looked good in gallop out, beat some talented horses. (+)
Rattle N Roll is the 6 in this race. Tough to see with the same color saddle cloths but he’s the winner at the end.
(7) A.P.’S SECRET
Trip Notes: Broke well got to the front. Grabbed the rail 23.8/46.2 and wasn’t asked for more until the stretch run. Looked good against a weaker field. Big jump up in class.
(8) EMMANUEL
Trip Notes: Saw last at the end of January at Tampa with the win. Broke well and got to the front. Ran in the two path with another front runner at long odds to the inside on the rail. 25 second first fraction, 49.88. In stretch another horse slipped in close along the rail and Emmanuel just ran away. Super easy with slow fractions but he looked like he had a lot more to give.
(9) HIGH OAK
Trip Notes: Long layoff as he last raced at the Spa back in early September finishing 4th in the Hopeful. He has won twice off the bench. Broke well in that race and was placed mid pack. Quarter was 22.2 and conceded some distance to the front runners. Ran outside on the turn with a lightning-fast half at 44.49. Went 5 wide into stretch. Ran past the tired horses and flattened.
(10) GIANT GAME
Trip Notes: Saez jumps off to ride Emmanuel. Off a step slow and went 3 wide into turn but tucked in nicely running in 2 path. Was pushed into turn but had nothing left in the tank. (-)
(11) O CAPTAIN
Trip Notes: Trailed the field out of the gate. 21.7 quarter. Passed tired, not impressed. (-)
(12) GALT
Trip Notes: Finished 4th in Holy Bull. Broke well from the rail and moved well. Grabbed front end on first turn. Had a perfect rail trip on not the quickest of fractions and faded. (-)
Fountain of Youth Plays: I’m going to take a swing with a back speed price based on what I anticipate will be a hot pace. 6 RATTLE N ROLL comes off the bench for Kenny McPeek, has a couple of nice works at 5 furlongs. Almost a 5-month lay-off does concern me but I don’t worry so much about back speed coming off a layoff as I do front runners. 8 EMMANUEL gets Luis Saez aboard and when the Toddster employs his services they mean business, lightly raced, and wouldn’t surprise me to see him go wire to wire is he can get to the front and put the other early speed away early on. 2 SIMPLIFICATION I can make excuses as trip notes indicate above. Based on the last race he may have some tactical speed and gets a major jockey upgrade to Jose Ortiz who should get him out of the gate well. 5 DEAN DELIVERS I’ll round things out with another back speed horse. Ran well in G3 Swale just missing and who doesn’t like good gallop outs.
FOUNTAIN OF YOUTH PICKS:
Picks for the other (3) Kentucky Derby Prep Races on Saturday:
Turfway Park Race 5 John Battaglia Memorial (8:14pm)est
Another race with potential for early pace pressure (39×2). I’m landing on 11 BLOODLINE as he has the pedigree and form coming off the turf. 4 STOLEN BASE based on potential pace, jockey Corrales and Maker (40%) when they connect. 8 ERASE because he should be on the lead and won stakes race last time out. I’ll round it out with another closer in 6 LEGENDARY LORE
Aqueduct Race 10 Gotham Stakes (5:27pm)est
A ton of early pace here (56×4) and I’m going to play back speed. 9 MORELLO is a presser, 2 starts and continues to improve. Assmussen and Lezcano (25%) and has the looks with a $17.5k breeding price, sold for $250k. 2 GLIDER finished 2nd in an Optional Claimer at Tampa and Casse ships north and brings Antonio Gallardo with him. Like the form and horse has already shown he can close from 5 lengths back. 10 ROCKEFELLER it’s Baffert and he’s going to take money. Has already won at the distance and he will be ready to fire. 5 DEANS LIST moving up in class, 2 starts, 2 wins and has already run at the par for this race.
Santa Anita Race 6 San Felipe Stakes (5:30pm)est
I expect a brisk pace here but there should be 2 front-runners (25×2). 5 DOPPELGANGER Baffert and Prat (29%) wins when they connect, I like the works which are normal for Baffert when he has a good horse. I believe the other Baffert runner can and will run with Forbidden Kingdom enough to wear him down for the pass in the stretch. 6 FORBIDDEN KINGDOM has the pace advantage, Pharoah pedigree and of the eleven races at the distance this meet (45%) have gone wire to wire. The stats are there to play on top but there’s that MyRaceHorse angle again with owner money coming in on their horse and I don’t believe there is going to be any value. 3 ARMAGNAC the other Baffert is a real contender based off pedigree. It’s Santa Anita and it wouldn’t surprise me to see the front speed carry right through the stretch. Johnny V has been the go-to jockey for Baffert of late and they are 47% wins. 2 WORSE READ SANCHEZ because he’s a presser and think he will be in the right place at the right time.
