Kentucky Derby Prep Races – The Louisiana Derby and Sunland Derby Picks

Weekend Kentucky Derby Prep Race Analysis by Chris Pomerleau 

We are just 6-weeks away from the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs.  This weekend there are two prep races on North American soil with the Louisiana Derby at Fairgrounds on Saturday which is the first (100) point prep race (100-40-20-10).  New Mexico’s day to shine is Sunday at Sunland Park for the Sunland Derby which is a race that awards (50) points to the winner (50-20-10-5). I will spend the time this week providing some insight with the Louisiana Derby.  If you have not been reading the weekly report, I challenge everyone to peek at the trip notes and then watch the replay to train your eye on things to watch.

(Race 12) Saturday at Fairgrounds 6:44pm est G2 LOUSIANA DERBY; 1 3/16 mile on dirt.

The weather forecast looks good, 74 degrees and sunny.

Pace visual out of the gate based on pace type and early speed (Quirin Points).

Saddle Cloth and Pace Type of each entry 

Projected quarter position based on pace type and Quirin Points.

Pace Analysis…

• From a pace standpoint this race sets up perfect for Epicenter as he is the true lone EARLY speed horse in this field.  The only question for me is can Pioneer of Medina run alongside Epicenter to push the pace, otherwise all signs point to a wire-to-wire winner in this one.
• There is a total of (21) Quirin Points which for a prep race of (9) horses are low, again advantage Epicenter.

Stats of Note in 3-year-old Graded Stakes races at the Fairgrounds

• Of (49) 3yo Graded Stakes the favorites win (43%) and horses 5:1 or less win (69%).
• Of 9–10-furlong races (28%) go wire to wire; the Early Speed bias is (63%). Early Speed (E) runners win (40%).  The average beaten lengths are (2.4) at 1^st call and (1.4) for 2^nd  Back speed can win but these stats lean towards a horse that is forwardly placed.
• Average Par Speed of the winner is a (97). Only one horse has hit that speed figure mark with #6 Epicenter who earned a (98) in the Risen Star.  Two other contenders within range are #2 Zozos who is the lightly raced with only two starts who earned a (94), he would need to take another step forward to win this race.  #9 Rattle N Roll is the other who earned a (95) in the Breeders Cup Futility back in November.  Coming off the layoff can he show that form again in his 2^nd

TRIP NOTES

#1 Silent Power (50:1)

Delta Downs shipper. Broke well and taken back, slow fractions and heading into the stretch swung way out, 7-wide. Gained down the stretch but it was more of an illusion against tired front runners. (X) 

#2 Zozos (8:1)

Oaklawn shipper.  Broke well and managed to get to the 2 path at the front. Fractions were slow. Broke away from the field in the stretch. Intriguing horse who can improve in 3rd start. 

#3 Call Me Midnight (6:1)

Beat Epicenter back in the LeComte, got benefit of a quick first fraction for that race and was able to catch in the stretch. Watching the replay, he was placed well against the rail about 10 lengths back on the back stretch. Didn’t even show on the screen until the final turn and he came flying. Swung out wide of a wall of 4-5 horses to get through. 5-6 wide heading down the stretch passing the tired and timing was perfect to catch Epicenter. Not easiest trip but benefactor of pace pressure.

Call Me Midnight is the #8; Epicenter is the #5

#4 Curly Tail (30:1)

Oaklawn shipper that won Maiden after 6 starts. Ran 3-wide on first turn and 6 lengths back on the backstretch. On the turn ran 3-wide, ran hard down the stretch, and passed the tiring horses. (X)

# 5 Kupuna (8:1)

Slight hesitation out of the gate. Positioned well into the first turn getting over on the rail. Slow first fraction and quicker 2nd fraction. Ran into the turn behind the two front runners and swung out 4 wide. Ran a good 2nd and had a good gallop out. Concern here is how strong this field was and we’ve already seen Cyberknife fail against top runners.

#6 Epicenter (7:5)

Jostled a bit out of the gate but ran out front to be positioned on the rail. Pressured a bit into the turn but was able to get alone out front. Was much the best, watch Rosario on the turn as he’s sitting like a statue while others are pumping away. Wasn’t really asked and made the others looked inferior, may be an instant replay of what we see in Louisiana Derby.

Epicenter is #5

#7 Pioneer of Medina (5:1)

Broke well to be forwardly placed. Tan a length off Epicenter on the backstretch. Epicenter created some distance from him moving I got the turn. Urged early in the turn and faded in the stretch. (-)

#8 Galt (8:1)

In the Fountain of Youth, he was on the far outside post (13) and got hung outside 6 wide into the first turn. At the back heading into the backstretch. Never showed up on screen until he leaped over the fallen horse. Toss this last race, let’s go back and revisit the prior effort once again. Broke well from the rail. Had a perfect trip on average fractions and was gassed 1/2 way into final turn. (X)

#9 Rattle N Roll (6:1)

I was all about Rattle N Roll in the Fountain of Youth. I liked the tactical speed and only concern was coming off the layoff. Last race review: Jockey positioned himself off the front runners and moved nicely on the rail heading into the first turn. Ran about 6 lengths back on the backstretch along the rail. Moved up on backstretch as the others fueled to the outside paths. Looked like he was ready to accelerate into the turn and just faded. Jockey was not pushing him and feel he needed a race and may see more here. (+)

Rattle N Roll is the #6

Louisiana Derby Picks:

There are no guarantees in horse racing, but I believe this race sets up perfect for #6 EPICENTER.  With no early speed to his inside, he should be able to get out front and grab the front-end rail.  Those 5f bullet works to build some stamina, Assmussen/Rosairo connection hits at (25%)   The question is if anyone pushes the pace and believe that would have to be #7 Pioneer of Medina.  I’m going to give another chance to #9 RATTLE N ROLL to get in the mix thinking he was not in form after five months on the bench.  Old school handicapping with the 5f bullet right before the next race.  This is the key horse for me to use in picks if I can maintain the ML value.  #3 CALL ME MIDNIGHT because all he did was dig in to win the Lecomte, you’re not going to get anywhere close to 29:1 odds that he was last time but he’s worth including at a price.  #2 ZOZOS I’ll include just because he’s only had two starts and is 2/2 and there are some positives.  Needs to step forward against much tougher competition but only at a big price.

LOUSIANA DERBY PICKS:

Sunland Derby Picks: 

(Race 11) Sunday at Sunland Park 7:15pm est G3 Sunland Derby; 1 1/8 mile on dirt. 

As mentioned at the beginning there is another less hyped Kentucky Derby prep race occurring Sunday in New Mexico.  A couple of interesting facts; the most wins by a jockey record is help by Victor Espinoza and Martin Garcia who have both won the race twice.  The trainer with the most Sunland Derby wins (3) is no other than Bob Baffert who has no entries in this year’s race.  Notable recent prior winners are Cutting Humor (2019), Runaway Ghost (2018) and Hence (2017).  This is the first time the race has been run since 2019 due to the pandemic, may everyone associated with Sunland Park have their day in the sun this weekend.

Now for the race which is run at 1 1/8m on the dirt, the weather forecast looks good with a partly cloudy forecast and 86 degrees.

One of the early derby favorites Slow Down Andy ships in for Doug O’Neill looking for a win and a derby birth.  This race is won on the front end or just from off the pace, (45%) winners are E-speed types and favorites have won (46%) of these races at Sunland.

SUNLAND DERBY PICKS

1^st: #4 SLOW DOWN ANDY (2:1).  I believe he is the best of this class, and I can make a couple of excuses with him coming off the 2-month layoff and there was no advantage to having the far outside post position (10) in the Risen Star.  He got hung 3-wide in the first turn and was wide throughout.  He did have a burst into the turn but had some trouble into the stretch and flattened.  I’ll take 2:1 here as I think he’s the best of the group.  I believe he can pick up the lead from just off the pace down the stretch.

Here is the Risen Star again, #10 is Slow Down Andy

2^nd: #8 STRAIGHT UP G (5:2).  He’s got the pace advantage in this race on the Quirin early speed points (+2) and he’s going to the front.  The 2 Classic Moment needs to press him, or he could get loose on the front-end.  I would ask for more on the tote board here, my concern is does he want anything longer than 1 1/16.

3^rd:  #5 BYE BYE BOBBY (9:2).  He finished 2^nd to Straight Up G in the Mine that Bird back on February 27^th.  Trainer Todd Fincher is (23%) wins and I think this horse may want a little more distance and the extra 1/16 is not a problem based on his running style.

SUNLAND DERBY PICKS: