Kentucky Derby Prep Race Picks
We are yet another week closer to the first weekend in May at Churchill Downs for the Kentucky Derby. One of my favorite prep races every year is the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park which awards (50-20-10-5) to the top 4-finishers. Last year’s winner Concert Tour was the top ranked horse coming out of the race last year. 2015 Winner American Pharoah who ultimately won the triple crown had a statue erected of him at Oaklawn Park in his honor. One other note, in the (11) Rebel Stakes races since 2010 Bob Baffert has won (8) of them, let that sink in for a minute. Let’s dive in on the race details.
Pace visual out of the gate: Quirin Early Speed Points (32)
Rebel Stakes Speed Points
Stats of Note in 3-year-old Graded Stakes races at Fairgrounds
- Of (31) 3yo Graded Stakes at Oaklawn the favorites win (48%) and horses 5:1 or less win (77%).
- Of (63) 8.5f races only (16%) go wire to wire but Early Speed type runners won (60%).
- There is a slight bias to outside posts (8+).
- Average Par Speed of winner is a (97).
(1) KAVOD (ML 12:1)
Finished fourth in the Southwest running on the front end, beaten by three others in this field. His success has been at one turn, believe that is where he needs to be. Should be on the front end to help deliver some pace pressure but anticipate same results with a late fade into the stretch.
Trip Notes: Broke well, got along the rail on the first turn. Horse wanted to run all out on back stretch and had to be reeled in a bit by jockey. Not a quick half, appeared at the beginning of the stretch he was still moving forward, and he just flattened and was passed by three horses. Had the perfect trip and still came up short.
(2) NEWGRANGE (ML 9:5)
He’s the one to beat for sure, top speed rating, 3/3 lifetime and Johnny V. races is back at Oaklawn to ride for Bob Baffert. Here’s a stat that jumps of the page, in the last 60-days, (25) mounts for Velazquez/Baffert with 60% wins!! He’s also the only horse in the field that has run to the average par. More ‘unrewarded’ derby points at stake.
Trip Notes: Broke well and was 3-wide into the first turn. Ran on the backstretch in a perfect spot behind the 2 leaders. Stayed wide as 2 horses came to his inside along the rail. Had to go four wide into the stretch, showed good effort going down the stretch.
(3) CAIRAMA (ML 15:1)
You can toss that last race in the slop at Oaklawn as he broke poorly and ran off pace. Some pedigree here and look at the price paid in spring of 2021 $525k, bred for $15k. He picked up ground in the Smarty Jones but as trip notes indicate he really was gifted the rail, believe he’s another one better suited for one turn.
Trip Notes: Finished 6th in the Smarty Jones on a sloppy track. Hesitated out of the gate at the back end of the first turn. Was gifted the rail and made a run up the backstretch to pass several horses. Got closer in the stretch but was never a threat.
(4) UN OJO (ML 12:1)
His last race is a fun replay to watch. I would like to believe he may be able to run into a fast pace but there’s a ton of question marks here. Last race was at Aqueduct in a weak Withers field that Early Voting put away with ease, did run up for 2nd.The owners change trainers who employs Ramon Vazquez to ride seem like some odd moves. I’ll consider underneath just because he’s a stalker who may be able to catch a trip.
Trip Notes: Was at the back of the pack into the first turn, was far back on the back stretch couldn’t even be seen on the screen. Showed up on the turn in past tires horses. Horse was still running hard down the stretch and got up for second. Gallup out was good. Maybe want to watch that may get under the mix at a price.
(5) TEXAS RED HOT (ML 12:1)
Last race was the much talked about Kentucky Juvenile from November 27th where Smile Happy, Classic Causeway and White Abario finished in the money. Of his two wins the first was in 2nd career start and the 2nd was back on Halloween and was a benefactor of a very hot pace. Another one who was bred for $5k with a big purchase for $130k. You can consider underneath but he’s going to need some things to unfold in front of him.
Trip Notes: Broke well but was cut off by the front runners and ended up at the back on the first turn. Jockey was trying to move him on final turn but had little left for a stretch run. The comments noted correctly that he was never a factor.
(6) STELLAR TAP (ML 10:1)
Has 4 career starts, won debut at 7f and in 3 routes has hit the board just once in a $50k Optional Claimer last race where he got the show. I like the pedigree but who wouldn’t for a $185k stud fee and a cool quarter of a million purchase. Would have to take a big step forward but has potential to get on the board.
Trip Notes: Squeezed behind two horses out of the gate slid into a night spot on the rail right behind the leader into the first turn. Shuffle to the outside position in 2 path out of the first turn. Coming out of the final turn he tried to position himself outside to make a run. Bumped with a horse to the outside. Went outside and couldn’t pick up enough ground to challenge the leader. Did look good past the wire.
(7) BEN DIESEL (ML 6:1)
His run in the Southwest wasn’t terrible and I think the comments are spot on using the word ‘lurked’. Dallas Stewart fires right back here and obviously believes in Jon Court as he’s been the jock every race. 3rd highest speed figure, he’s a good candidate to hit the board.
Trip Notes: He broke well from the rail and held throughout. Front runner came off the rail and opened an opportunity for him. Got a nice trip no excuses, finished 3rd.
(8) CHASING TIME (ML 8:1)
Here’s the social media trendy horse this week. Was superior against the weaker field, Steve Asmussen has had a different jockey for every race. This time its Tyler Gaffalione who I believe is one of the best jockeys in placing his horses in the right spot and getting them to settle. He has been the favorite for every race, as many people point out he’s a Myracehorse Stable, so all the ‘co-owners’ typically bet him down. I think he’s a contender to hit the board, but I won’t be shocked that his odds are lower with the additional betting dollars coming in.
Trip Notes: Allowance winner at Oaklawn. Broke very well to grab the lead. Longshot horse made a quick and sudden move to pass chasing time on the front end, past competition on the turn. Took off into the stretch, Easy victory against this field.
(9) BARBER ROAD (ML 9:2)
I can make some trip excuses for him in his last race and his jockey and fan favorite Reylu Guiterrez is back aboard. Has the 2nd highest pace figure and I can make a case based off pace as he’s the lone presser in the race. I would like a little more from the tote board on odds but don’t think that will happen.
Trip Notes: Midpack out of the gate, 4-wide into the first turn. Fighting into the stretch was able to go outside around traffic. Second best and look good on the Gallup out with Newgrange.
(10) ETHEREAL ROAD (12:1)
Another fun replay to watch, posted above drag t 23:23 mark and watch the 2, you’ll be happy you did. I have a soft spot for all back speed horses and love it when one runs from off the screen. This is a huge jump in class, and he didn’t beat much. Needs a melt-down pace to run into, maybe something happens, and he gets in on the back end of tickets. What I do like is if you look at the pace comparison from that day is it was not quick which makes the worst to first run even more impressive.
Trip Notes: Longshot who won his first in fourth start. Stumbled hard out of the gate and was left at the back of the pack. Couldn’t even be seen on the screen until the horses got to the final turn. Was an impressive run even against weak competition to be as far back as he was to be able to win the race.
(11) DASH ATTACK (ML 8:1)
I was geared up on Dash Attack as my top pick in the Southwest at Oaklawn back in January. His win in the slop in the Smarty Jones looked good and the trip was impressive. Kenny McPeek is firing back with David Cohen again and he has a couple of 5f bullet works the past 2-weeks. I am concerned he may have peaked, PP comments of being ‘One paced throughout’ are perfect as I would have noted that he was flat as a pancake. He will need to bounce back big to beat the top contenders.
Trip Notes: Very slight hesitation out of the gate. Was mid-pack around the first turn heading into the backstretch. Was expecting more from this horse attempted to make a run heading into the stretch and he just flattened.
Summary: I really want to pick against chalk here but believe it’s going to be a challenge to find value here. From a pace perspective this race projects as a brisk pace but nothing like we’ve seen in the recent prep races. There is a void of one-type speed horses in this race which I believe helps Newgrange. I believe Velazquez will place him along the rail just off the pace and put this field away in the stretch. I like to pick opposite pace types in the top 2 spots, therefore I will roll with Newgrange over Barber Road at the top and look to incorporate some of the prices underneath with the back speed with Ethereal Road, Dash Attack, Un Ojo as underneath plays to add value to your tickets.
PICKS: 2-9-8-10
If you didn’t get a chance, please be sure to watch The Players Edge with special guest Vic Stauffer as the team reviews a few races from the big Oaklawn Saturday card.
