Kentucky Downs Tips
Race 1 – 1 Mile
Bias: Closers, 20% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2/3 Fair, 4–7 Bonus, 8+ Discount
Tom’s Picks
1 – In The Stars – She’s raced once on the turf at one mile and ran second, making a move at the top of the stretch, but was outfinished. Her last race was on the dirt, where she had some issues, finishing fifth more than eleven lengths behind. The workouts have been okay, and she gets Irad today.
11 – Alongcomesawoman – This is her first start since last September. None of her three races was awful, but only a third on the turf was her best. She has two recent workouts and adds Lasix today. The post position doesn’t help, but she has broken from the outside and still contended until the end.
9 – Les Is Best – She’ll run last throughout most of this race and come flying late. She has eleven starts with five in the money, from six furlongs to a mile and a sixteenth. The quirky Kentucky Downs course might suit her best.
Rich’s Ranks
10 – Running Game – If he reruns his last, he works, but the outside post hurts.
1 – In The Stars – Rail bonus. Last race was better than it looks with improved EP.
11 – Alongcomesawoman – First Lasix helps, best published workout.
4 – Champagne Brunch – Second up and clearly better on grass.
Race 2 – 1 Mile
Bias: Closers, 20% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2/3 Fair, 4–7 Bonus, 8+ Discount
Tom’s Picks
4 – Ontology – In her first start around two turns, she broke from post eleven and didn’t get the best trip, but made up ground late to finish fifth, four-plus lengths back. This feels like the “needed a start” type. By Kitten’s Joy and with a better post, she looks ready to win today.
12 – Conceit – A wide draw hurts this first-time starter by Not This Time, but the works are sharp. Brad Cox has had good success with debuting 2-year-olds (27% wins). She looks well-bred and talented, one of three runners here by her sire.
5 – Secretly Delighted – This debut runner was the most expensive at the sales and has worked well. By Constitution out of a Discreet Cat mare, the turf should be ideal. All six of her siblings are winners, and the dam won a minor stakes.
Rich’s Ranks
2 – La Dolce Vita – Normal 2nd race improvement would make her hard to beat.
4 – Ontology – Another second-timer who just needs a better start.
12 – Conceit – Brad Cox first-timer with some great works.
5 – Secretly Delighted – Top turf breeding and best works for a debut.
Race 3 – 6 ½ Furlongs
Bias: Stalkers, 36% w2w – PP: Strong Outside In
Tom’s Picks
7 – Reagan’s Flame – Two starts this year without much, but her turf record shows a win, a second, and a third from four tries. Her jockey won on her last year in the mud at Ellis. Strictly a longshot, but Kentucky Downs is the place for those.
2 – Mean Eileen – Showed speed last out before fading to fifth at a mile. She won the start before at Churchill at 5 ½ furlongs. Both wins are on turf, including her maiden at Kentucky Downs. She should be forwardly placed.
6 – Ready to Jam – Three recent Woodbine starts against graded company: two seconds and a close fifth. This looks like her best distance.
Computer Picks: 6-2-1-4
Formula Picks: 6-5-4-10
Rich’s Ranks
10 – Fancy Caber Neigh – Boom or bust in second start after a year off. Bullet work.
2 – Mean Eileen – Usually comes off the bench ready. All or nothing type.
6 – Ready to Jam – Most upside. Regressed in last. Could bounce back.
4 – Hideki – Longshot. Smart Sheets SIM favorite, gets a bit more distance.
Race 4 – 6 Furlongs
Bias: Early Speed, 3/6 w2w – PP: None from Rail, 2/3 Best, 4–7 Fair, 8+ Discount
Tom’s Picks
9 – No Ah A – Won his debut at Hawthorne despite trouble at the start, then pulled away late. One rival he beat came back to win by eleven in his next race. Looks like he fits here at a good price.
3 – Stiglets – Made a move in his last race before getting bumped and losing momentum. No turf placings in two tries, but his works are strong. Claimed for 100k at Oaklawn, and now Irad rides for Phil D’Amato.
7 – Pharoah’s Dynasty – Returns from a layoff after a maiden win and two stakes tries. Adds Lasix and has solid works coming in.
Rich’s Ranks
1 – Operation Sunrise – Fast fractions last time. Anything close repeats.
2 – Floodlites – Steady runner. Won lone trip at Kentucky Downs.
3 – Stiglets – Don’t usually get Irad on a 15-1. Sharp 5f work in 58.4.
12 – Northern Chill – Lone turf and off dirt record says no, but best SP#s.
Race 5 – 6 Furlongs
Bias: Early Speed, 3/6 w2w – PP: None from Rail, 2/3 Best, 4–7 Fair, 8+ Discount
Tom’s Picks
8 – Sunshine Daydream – Has shown speed in both starts before fading. Drops in distance, which could be just what he needs.
6 – Bois Blanc – Was blocked last time and still managed fourth. The race prior, she rallied for second, just a half length short. Consistency and a better trip would help.
3 – Pointsetmatch – Faded badly in her last two dirt tries. Earlier at Fairgrounds on turf routes, she finished closer. A return to turf and forward placement helps her chances.
Rich’s Ranks
12 – Senora D’Oro – Second race improvement likely. Steadied in debut and still rallied.
6 – Bois Blanc – Only horse with a PAR race. Chance to be better second up.
4 – Autumn Sunshine – Top-rated first-timer with a bullet work.
16 – Tempting Eve – Could be lone E; if in, he’ll try to wire.
Race 6 – 6 Furlongs
Bias: Early Speed, 3/6 w2w – PP: None from Rail, 2/3 Best, 4–7 Fair, 8+ Discount
Tom’s Picks
10 – Mary’s Lad – Ran decently in May and has worked four times at Saratoga since. Recently gelded, which may improve him.
3 – Beer Run – Consistently hits the board (7 for 9 ITM) but has been outfinished often. Reliable but tough to trust on top.
8 – O’ Patrick – Debuted poorly after a slow start, finishing last. Adds blinkers and has a sharp work. Turf switch could help.
4 – Peixe – Well-bred gelding with solid works for Wesley Ward. First-time starter that will take betting action.
Rich’s Ranks
10 – Mary’s Lad – Likely pacesetter. Could improve in second race.
3 – Beer Run – Has a TLRSP# +6. Two solid works since.
4 – Peixe – Wesley Ward first-timer with solid works.
11 – Clear the Beach – Parability type who showed stakes-level late pace.
Race 7 – 2 1/16 Miles
Bias: Limited history – lone w2w winner came from posts 4–7
Tom’s Picks
7 – Flatten the Curve – Ran poorly on Saratoga dirt when his race came off turf, but rebounded in Germany with a win at Hamburg over two miles. Has a Group 2 win at Hoppegarten. With others untested at this trip, he’s dangerous.
1 – Goldeneye – Has won his last two, most recently at Saratoga. Also has a front-running win at Kentucky Downs. First time at this distance, but speed is his weapon.
4 – Limited Liability – Won this race last year by eight lengths at 2-1. Since then, he’s been less sharp, though Dettori rides again. Concerns about his latest effort.
Rich’s Ranks
1 – Goldeneye – TLRSP#+7, tends to pair peak numbers. Two solid works since.
4 – Limited Liability – Dominated lone KD trip in second-up start.
7 – Flatten the Curve – Group 2 winner in Germany. Toss US dirt try.
3 – Tawny Port – Burned me before. Capable but risky.
Race 8 – 6 ½ Furlongs
Bias: Stalkers, 36% w2w – PP: Strong Outside In
Tom’s Picks
7 – Qujda – Won seasonal debut at Woodbine. 17 career starts with 7 wins, including a Group 3 in France. Targeted this race after her prep.
12 – Simply in Front – Closer who won at Ellis last time from seventh and also won here last year from behind. Loves the distance and has good form.
3 – Jody’s Pride – Tried dirt in slop at Saratoga, but turf is her breeding. A G3 winner at Aqueduct, with sharp recent turf works.
Rich’s Ranks
6 – AG Bullet – TLRSP# +4. Undefeated at this distance, including KD win.
11 – Kehoe Beach – Forward mover, third-up for the first time. Boom or bust.
9 – Irish Maxima – Longshot. Second on turf. Excuses last time (3 wide, checked).
4 – Danse Macabre – Z-pattern horse, 12/14 ITM on turf.
Race 9 – 6 Furlongs
Bias: Early Speed, 3/6 w2w – PP: None from Rail, 2/3 Best, 4–7 Fair, 8+ Discount
Tom’s Picks
10 – Pipsy – Toss her last troubled trip. Won at Saratoga and Keeneland before that, and was second here last year. Versatile style makes her dangerous.
2 – Howard Wolowitz – Failed in Saudi Arabia but returns with sharp Saratoga works. Won here last year as the favorite. Could be better on all-weather but still dangerous.
6 – Khaadem – Unpredictable but talented. Loves Royal Ascot and ran well here last year. At 9, still has class and must be respected.
Rich’s Ranks
2 – Howard Wolowitz – Great works. Sometimes needs one after overseas trip.
7 – Arrest Me Red – Best when fresh. Triple-digit SP# in last KD run.
1 – Implementation – Bad post but unbeaten at KD. “Horse for course.”
6 – Khaadem – Form questionable, talent isn’t.
Race 10 – 1 5/16 Miles
Bias: 9 races – Stalkers win, 0 w2w – PP: 1–7 Bonus, 8+ Struggled
Tom’s Picks
1 – Hill Road – Started in Ireland, then was third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Won the Peter Pan but tailed off in the Jim Dandy. Back to turf now, with two sharp turf works.
12 – Wimbledon Hawkeye – UK shipper with tough competition experience. Consistent (11: 2-4-3), just missed at Goodwood. Has a Group 2 win. Must include.
2 – Test Score – Gate issues but always runs big. Belmont Derby winner and hasn’t missed the board this year.
Rich’s Ranks
1 – Hill Road – Looks the best horse. Returns to turf.
2 – Test Score – TLRSP+3. Third up, but risk of regression.
12 – Wimbledon Hawkeye – From England, strong recent efforts.
8 – Sandman – Faced best dirt 3YOs. Turf breeding says he fits.
Race 11 – 1 Mile
Bias: Closers, 20% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2/3 Fair, 4–7 Bonus, 8+ Discount
Tom’s Picks
3 – Cheshire Dancer – Won last out at Ascot at 22-1. Has two other wins this year, including Leicester, and ran third at Royal Ascot. Hugo Palmer trainee with Dettori up.
2 – Special Wan – Imported last year and won first US start. This year has been mixed but she’s run well at Gulfstream and Saratoga. Reliable turf form.
6 – Lady IIze – Lightly raced German G1 winner of the 1000 Guineas. Last time was fifth at Newmarket at 50-1. Interesting contender.
Rich’s Ranks
9 – Charlene’s Dream – Won both at a mile. Better ATB last time.
1 – In Our Time – Usually sharp off the bench.
2 – Special Wan – Biggest class dropper. ITM 8/9 on grass.
8 – Landed – Ward horse trying turf for first time. Turf works sharp.
Race 12 – 6 Furlongs
Bias: Early Speed, 3/6 w2w – PP: None from Rail, 2/3 Best, 4–7 Fair, 8+ Discount
Tom’s Picks
2 – Time for Money – First-time starter by Not This Time with strong works. $800k Keeneland purchase.
1 – Boonesboro – Well-bred homebred with good works. Dam has produced six winners. Trainer’s debut stats are low, but talent is here.
9 – Judicial Review – Maker trainee with bullet works. $60k son of Take Charge Indy. Pedigree is modest but training suggests readiness.
Rich’s Ranks
First-timers ranked by Smart Sheets:
5 – Cynical Humor
1 – Boonesboro
7 – Wexford One
2 – Time for Money
14 – Vito Corleone (AE)
