Kentucky Downs Horse Racing Tips, Commentary, Analysis and Suggested Wagers
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Free Kentucky Downs Picks
Terry’s Picks:
Kentucky Downs -9-05-25
Race 1
3 – Carson Street: Debuting on turf, with strong breeding, top trainer and jockey stats, and a solid 3F workout on Aug-30.
8 – Mister Punch – He is a First-time starter whose Breeding suggests he will like the grass, and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
10 – Silver Sniper: High-percentage jockey and hot trainer/jockey combo (7: 2-1-1 last 14 days). Shows potential on grass; dam has produced 4 winners from 6 starters.
Longshot:
2 – Jet Off – Displayed early speed on debut, led most of the way. Has a high-percentage trainer and jockey; could improve trying turf.
Alternate:
7 – Vito Corleone
Bet: $.10 Superfecta Box: #2,3,8,7,10– ($12.00)
Race 2-Female
11 – Weighted Average – Finished 2nd as the favorite last out; trainer wins 29% with beaten favorites returning and has a high-percentage jockey aboard.
2 – Mendee – Finished in the money in five of her last six races; has the highest last-race speed rating; may perform better at this shorter distance; owns today’s fastest turf speed.
4 – Unmerited Favor – Runner-up last time; has a top trainer, now has a high-percentage winning jockey, and posted a solid 4F workout on Aug-29.
Longshot:
8 – Mildred Pierce – She placed in two of three races and closed to finish 2nd last time so the extra distance should suit her, and she has a top-winning jockey.
Alternate:
5 – Plot
9 – Rather Distinct
Bet: $.10 Superfecta Box: #2,4,8,11– ($2.40)
$.50 Pick 4: 2,4,8,11/2,8,7/3,7/2,4,7,10 – Cost $48.00
Race 3
8 – Winnebago – Imported from Great Britain, he placed in both US starts and is teamed with a high-percentage trainer and jockey.
7 – Walley World – Finished in the money in eight of the last nine races, with three wins; has a top trainer and jockey.
2- Oy Gevald – Won last race, has top jockey and trainer, plus a solid 4F workout on Aug 24.
Longshot:
1 – Move to Gold – Finished in the money in five of six career races winning one race, has the highest last race speed rating and his best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Alternate:
9 – Unleash the Power
Bet: $.10 Superfecta: #2,7,8/1,2,7,8,9/1,2,7,8,9/1,2,7,8,9 – ($4.80)
Race 4–
7 – Time Song: Drops in class today, strong Aug-28 (Sharp 4F) workout, and top jockey Frankie Dettorie rides.
3 – Common Defense – He placed in five out of seven starts, won once, and is paired with a high-percentage trainer and jockey.
5 – Mickey Shillelagh – Third in last race; highest speed rating; blinkers added today.
Longshot:
4 – Alpha Omega – He won his last race and he has high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
10 – My Boy Tony
8 – Fort Thomas
Bet: $.10 Superfecta: #3,5,7/3,4,5,7,10/3,4,5,7,8,10/3,4,5,7,8,10 – ($14.40)
Race 5
2 – R Slew of Cash – First-time starter bred for turf and route distance with a high-percentage trainer and jockey.
4 – Market Chill: Finished poorly after a stumble at the start but has top-performing jockey Irad Ortiz and trainer Chad Brown.
10 – Classic Glide – He finished 2nd in his last race and he has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
7 – Temeraire – He is a First-time starter bred for turf and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
11 – Imaginationthelady
3 – Paris Twilight
Bet: $.10 Superfecta: #2,4,7,10/2,4,7,10,11/2,3,4,7,10,11/2,3,4,7,10,11 – ($19.20)
Race 6-Female
6 – Always Forever – Finished 3rd as the favorite last time; trainer wins 30% with returning beaten favorites and has a high win rate with both trainer and jockey.
4 – Cha Cha Chukka: Placed second in consecutive races; has a high-percentage trainer and jockey.
7 – Massarat – Won last race at Churchill Downs with the top speed rating; paired with a high-percentage trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
11 – Good Game – She Won last race, she has high % winning trainer who wins 22% of the Allowance races he has horses running in and she has high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
1 – Love Song
15 – Tarneema
Bet: $.10 Superfecta: #4,6,7,11/4,6,7,11/1,4,6,7,11,15/1,4,6,7,11,15 – ($14.40)
Race 7 -Female
10 – Ramsey Pond – Won last race at Keenland, has high-percentage trainer and jockey, plus a bullet 4F workout on Aug-29.
5 – Waskesiu: Last race winner, top trainer and jockey stats, now on Lasix.
9 – Justifiable Belle: Third in her last race, she has the fastest turf speed today, a strong trainer/jockey combo, and a solid 4F workout (Aug-28).
Longshot:
7 – Landed – She has won 5 of 9 career starts and is trained and ridden by top-percentage professionals.
Alternate:
3 – Mo Fox Givin
6 – Queen Judith
Bet: $.10 Superfecta Box: #5,7,9,10 – ($2.40)
Race 8
4 – We’re in Trouble: With 5 top finishes in 7 career starts, including 2 wins, and a trainer and jockey with high win rates.
5- Script – He placed in the top spots in his last 5 races, including one win. Both his trainer and jockey have high win rates.
11 – Attache: Finished 2nd last race; trained by a trainer with an 18%-win rate in Sprint races.
Longshot:
8 – Dark Vintage – He ran 2nd in last race and has a good 4F workout (Aug-28).
Alternate:
3 – Linzer
6 – Gilded Ruler
Bet: $.10 Superfecta: #4,5/3,4,5,8,11/3,4,5,8,11/3,4,5,6,8,11 – ($7.20)
$.50 Pick 4: 4,5/3,4,5,8/10,11,12/1,5,7,9 – Cost $48.00
Race 9-Female
5 – Vive Veuve: Winner of last two races, aiming for a third straight under a high-percentage trainer and jockey.
4 – Grayosh: Placed 3rd last race, trained by a top-winning trainer and jockey, fits the distance.
8 – Pharoah’s Wine: Won 2 of her last 3 races, placed 2nd last time out, trained by a high-percentage winner, and suited for the distance.
Longshot:
3- Waves of Mischief: Beaten only a neck in her last start, trained by a high-percentage winner, and suited for the distance.
Alternate:
6- Watchtower
Bet: $.10 Superfecta Box: #3,4,5,8– ($2.40)
Race 10
10- British Isles – He’s unbeaten at this distance on turf and boasts a high-percentage trainer and jockey.
11 – Mutaawid: Won his last race, has the highest recent speed rating, top trainer and jockey win percentages, and the fastest turf speed among today’s entrants.
12 – Navy Seal – He won his last race and he has high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
9 – Emergence: Winner of 2 of 5 starts, dropping in class today with a strong trainer-jockey team.
Alternate:
7 – Presider
2 – Cyber Ninja
Bet: $.10 Superfecta: #10,11,12/7,9,10,11,12/2,7,9,10,11,12/2,7,9,10,11,12 – ($14.40)
Best Bet of the Day at PARX Racing – 10th Race – 10- British Isles
Race 11
5 – Maginnesontap – Finished 3rd in debut; has tied highest last race speed rating and best turf speed among today’s runners; trainer and jockey have high win percentages.
1 – Master Chief Mike: Tied for highest last race speed rating, strong grass breeding (Dam with 2 winners from 3 starters, including 1 Turf winner), and a trainer who wins 26% of horses’ second career race.
9 – Jorge’s Ace – He ran 3rd in his last race and he has high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
7 – Honey Dutch – Finished third last race. Trainer wins 25% of races with Sprint-Sprint-Route horses. May improve on grass at a longer distance; sharp 4F workout (Aug-29).
Alternate:
3 – Quarry
12 – Vitruvian Man
Bet: $.10 Superfecta: #1,5,9/1,5,7,9/1,3,5,7,9/1,3,5,7,9,12 – ($5.40)
Best Bet of the Day at PARX Racing – 10th Race – 10- British Isles
Rich’s Picks:
Race 1: 7 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 2/6 w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2/3 Bad, 4-7 Fair, 8+ Bonus
First timers – ranked in order with works
3 – CARSON STREET
9 – REPENTLESS
6 – MUSTBETHEMUNNING
11 – TRABOLTA
$0.10 Superfecta: 3,6,8,9,11,12/3,6,9/3,6,9,11/3,6,9,11,12
Race 2: 1 5/16 Miles – Bias: Stalkers, 0/9 w2w – PP: 1-7 Bonus, 8+ Bad
4 – UNMERITED FAVOR – just missed in last out – 3rd up for the first time – Boom/Bust
2 – MENDEE – SIM FAV – class dropper and tends to run well in first ups
11 – WEIGHTED AVERAGE – is closing with a Top TP edge of +7 – Top C ZONE – post hurts
7 – GROVE CITY SUNSET – YES horse with better EP and Fractions – 2nd Up – improved 2x
$0.50 Pick 4: 2,4,11/1,2,7,8/3,5,7,10/1,4
$0.10 Superfecta: 2,4,7,11/2,4,11/2,4,5,7,10,11/2,4,7,10,11
Race 3: 1 Mile – Bias: Closers, 20% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2/3 Fair, 4-7 Bonus, 8+ Discount
1 – MOVE TO GOLD – TLRSP#+5 – 2nd start after more than a year off – Boom or Bust
7 – WALLEY WORLD – Top PAR+ – finally healthy horse 2nd up for the first time in 2 years
8 – WINNEBAGO – robust Turf breeding – been close in both runs since coming from GB
2 – OY GEVALD – going to take a flyer – has some early speed in race without speed – better ATB and fractions
$0.10 Superfecta: 1,2,7,8/1,8,7/1,2,7,8,9/1,2,7,8,9,10
Race 4: 1 ½ Miles – Bias: Closers, 1/5 w2w – PP: Inside 3 None, 4-7 Discount, 8+ Big Bonus
10 – MY BOY TONY – as consistent as can be – big pop in last 3rd up
3 – COMMON DEFENSE – was in derby trail last year – great works – bad post?
7 – TIME SONG – popping to the front – YES horse down from the GI Arlington Million
5 – MICKEY SHILLELAGH – biggest in race edge with 1 length LS – better EP and Fractions
$0.10 Superfecta: 3,5,7,10/3,5,7/2,3,5,7,10,12/3,5,7,10,12
Race 5: 1 Mile – Bias: Closers, 20% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2/3 Fair, 4-7 Bonus, 8+ Discount
4 – MARKET CHILL – tough start in debut – still 2nd race parability – winner came back to win non graded stakes with ease
1 – LOTTA ALPHA – Par Run in debut – any 2nd race improvement and see you later
6 – I’M A LITTLE CRAZY – Top Rated 1st timer with some strong works
9 – VERONICAFORTHEWIN – tough draw but the works and the ranking is there
$0.10 Superfecta: 1,2,4,6,9/1,4,6,9/1,4,6/1,2,4,6,9,11
Race 6: 1 5/16 Miles – Bias: Stalkers, 0/9 w2w – PP: 1-7 Bonus, 8+ Bad
7 – MASSARAT – strong LS edge of a length for Top TP
1 – LOVE SONG – another closer – was a little faster early in last – more distance helps
6 – ALWAYS FOREVER – ITM 5/5 races so far
11 – GOOD GAME – SIM FAV – a little better ATB in last and ran a little faster
$0.10 Superfecta: 1,6,7,11/1,6,7,11,15/1,6,7/1,4,6,7,11,15
Race 7: 1 Mile – Bias: Closers, 20% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2/3 Fair, 4-7 Bonus, 8+ Discount
10 – RAMSEY POND – 6 SP# increases and a bullet work since and a win at KD
5 – WASKESIU – probably the best horse in the race – been off for more than a year – works are there
7 – LANDED – excellent works prepping – excellent work on Aug 17th – first turf race for Wesley Ward
9 – MALLEYMOO – 2nd up should be better – Brown and Prat
$0.10 Superfecta: 5,7,9,10/5,7,10/5,6,7,9,10/3,5,6,7,9,10
Race 8: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Stalkers, 36% w2w – PP: Outside In, None from Rail
3 – LINZER – some of his best works prepping – pacesetter
11 – ATTACHE – very likely better in 2nd up
7 – MISCHIEVOUS ROGUE – another that should be better in 2nd off the bench – SIM FAV and Top TP
10 – BERGEN – first time making three starts in a row for the first time – boom or bust
$0.50 Pick 4: 3,7,10,11/5,8/2,11,12/1,5,8,12
$0.10 Superfecta: 3,7,10,11/3,7,11/3,4,7,10,11/3,4,5,7,10,11
Race 9: 1 Mile 70 Yards – Bias: 2 Races – Early Speed, 1/2 w2w – PP: 4-7 Both Wins
5 – VIVE VEUVE – TLRSP#+6 and Top TOTAL PACE – by far PAR+ – 2nd up
8 – PHAROAH’S WINE – just missed in last at KD – should be better in round 2
4 – GRAYOSH – Brown horse that just missed in a Grade III
1 – SPARKLE BLUE – YES horse that should be close to the front
$0.10 Superfecta: 5,8/4,5,8/ALL/ALL
Race 10: 1 ½ Miles – Bias: Closers, 1/5 w2w – PP: Inside 3 None, 4-7 Discount, 8+ Big Bonus
12 – NAVY SEAL – has the best turf breeding – yes horse with a strong C ZONE
11 – MUTAAWID – TLRSP#+11 – by far top PAR+ with a 1 length LS edge
2 – CYBER NINJA – 3rd in his lone race at KD – big win in last
10 – BRITISH ISLES – ITM 11/16 on turf – should be better in 2nd up
$0.10 Superfecta: 2,11,12/2,10,11,12/1,2,9,10,11,12/1,2,10,11,12
Race 11: 1 Mile – Bias: Closers, 20% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2/3 Fair, 4-7 Bonus, 8+ Discount
1 – MASTER CHIEF MIKE – YES horse and Top Total Pace of a length – 2nd race parability
5 – MAGINNESONTAP – the other YES horse with room for more in 2nd start
8 – KINGOFSOMEWHEREHOT – Top firster – with a back bullet
12 – VITRUVIAN MAN – another making his second start with upside
$0.10 Superfecta: 1,5,8,9,12/1,5,8/1,5,8,12/1,3,5,8,9,12
