Kentucky Downs is back with its unique turf course, massive purses, and wide-open fields. Below, you’ll find 22 to 1 Tom’s detailed write-ups alongside Rich’s bias-based rankings for every race on the card. Together, these perspectives give you both the storytelling and the numbers you need to make smarter plays.
Race 1 – 6 ½ Furlongs
Bias: Stalkers, 36% w2w – PP: Outside In, None from Rail
Tom’s Picks
7 – Lilo Lil – First timer with good works and bred to love the turf.
12 – Hattie Jane – Slowed a little early and then retreated. Switching to turf will be the difference today.
1 – Sadie Earp – Just missed at Saratoga last time by a head. Dettori/Ward is the favorite, but the post position will need to be overcome.
Rich’s Ranks
1 – Sadie Earp – Proven she can win at this level, but post is difficult.
16 – Call Me Precious (AE) – Top rated first timer if she gets in.
11 – Triskelion – Second race parability, needs just slight improvement.
13 – Windy Houston (AE) – Another AE horse that only needs to step up in second career start.
9 – Melody Maker – Second first-timer choice with solid works and pattern.
8 – Mony Mony – Third first-timer choice with Irad and bullet work.
Race 2 – 1 5/16 Miles
Bias: Stalkers, None w2w – PP: 1-7 Bonus, 8+ Bad
Tom’s Picks
7 – Out of Deductions – Returns to the races after some speedy works at Hawthorne. Right level for the return.
11 – Master Piece – Last win was in May 2024 in a grade two. Two starts after the break with average performances but showed improvement last out. Better today.
3 – Sugoi – Should go forward and run. Drops from a stake race, and it’s been a while since he’s run at this level.
Rich’s Ranks
3 – Sugoi – Class dropper that should be better second up.
9 – Gilded Craken – Will head to the front with enough late pace to close it out.
4 – King Curlin – Last race faster than it looks. KD record 3/0-2-0.
6 – Bail Us Out – As much back class as any, drops from a G3.
1 – Risk Manager
7 – Out of Deductions
Race 3 – 1 Mile
Bias: Closers, 20% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2/3 Fair, 4-7 Bonus, 8+ Discount
Tom’s Picks
4 – State of Joy – Won last September at Down Royal. Comes off the break with two good works to suggest readiness.
10 – Cheetah Lady – Likely dead last early but rallies hard for another in-the-money finish. First start was here.
11 – Princess Attitude – Gets class relief after reasonable efforts in listed stakes. Failed last time but this is the right spot.
Rich’s Ranks
11 – Princess Attitude – Strong SIM favorite, should get favorable trip.
1 – Love You Anyway – Very consistent in 4 starts, drops after showing better EP.
5 – Golden Gamble – Best works prepping, first Lasix helps.
12 – Steampunk – Won lone KD race. All-or-nothing type (turf 4/2-0-0).
3 – Aunt Mo
2 – Bembridge Ledge
Race 4 – 6 ½ Furlongs
Bias: Stalkers, 36% w2w – PP: Outside In, None from Rail
Tom’s Picks
11 – Saturday Flirt – Toss her Royal Ascot miss, won her other three. Strong works say she’s ready for Dettori/Ward.
7 – She’s Got Will – Won last time at Saratoga from far back. With pace to chase, she’ll be dangerous.
4 – Drop the Hammer – Shown speed in last two, wired her maiden. Will set the pace today.
Rich’s Ranks
12 – Proud Starlet – Outside speed with TLRSP#+5.
10 – Rich City Girl – Won lone KD turf trip just over a year ago.
11 – Saturday Flirt – Had her way in three races, lone miss was G2 at Ascot.
13 – Scattitude (AE) – Faster fractions, better gate-to-wire pace.
7 – She’s Got Will – Deep closer who knows how to win in big fields.
9 – Love Cevere
Race 5 – 1 Mile
Bias: Closers, 20% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2/3 Fair, 4-7 Bonus, 8+ Discount
Tom’s Picks
11 – Don’t Look Now – Blew the start in debut, finished strongly while wide. Turf breeding should shine.
8 – Crimsonite – Showed speed in second start. Turf switch should help.
5 – Playa Azul – Slow start, showed some speed, then faded. Should improve second out.
Rich’s Ranks
8 – Crimsonite – TLRSP#+5. Room to grow in third career start.
11 – Don’t Look Now – Bad start, 9-wide, still finished well. Parability in second race.
7 – Agia Marina – Either of last two turf efforts would fit.
5 – Playa Azul – Can improve in second start and move to turf. Was well-bet on debut.
6 – Cleopatra Selene
13 – Crawford (AE)
Race 6 – 1 5/16 Miles
Bias: Stalkers, None w2w – PP: 1-7 Bonus, 8+ Bad
Tom’s Picks
4 – Spanish Eyes – Missed the start in all three US races, but rallied for seconds in two graded stakes. Distance suits her.
3 – Beach Bomb – Didn’t get the best run last time as the favorite. Forward placement should yield better results.
5 – Nadette – Third start after average late runs. Will be last early, closing late again.
Rich’s Ranks
6 – Stellify – Won 3 in a row. Resume says another step forward coming second up.
8 – Miwa – Strong turf breeding, dominated a KD field last out.
11 – No Mo Candy – TLRSP#+4. Boom or bust type in third career start.
4 – Spanish Eyes – Repeat of last makes her dangerous. Distance no issue.
2 – Way to Be Marie
5 – Nadette
Race 7 – 1 Mile
Bias: Closers, 20% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2/3 Fair, 4-7 Bonus, 8+ Discount
Tom’s Picks
9 – Point Lynas – Toss Pontefract miss. Prior Ascot/Chantilly efforts in group company were solid.
3 – Cairo – Didn’t fire in first US start, but Ascot and Chester efforts were good.
2 – Major Dude – Showed good speed last time at Monmouth. Sharp works coming in.
Rich’s Ranks
13 – Lagynos – Crushed competition in last KD start.
7 – Brilliant Berti – 4 wins from 5. C-Zone says good trip coming.
9 – Point Lynas – English invader with breeding. Dettori hot at KD (32%).
1 – Goliad – Won both at KD. Defending champ. Wants to be forward.
5 – Spirit of St Louis
12 – Beach Gold
Race 8 – 1 Mile
Bias: Closers, 20% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2/3 Fair, 4-7 Bonus, 8+ Discount
Tom’s Picks
10 – Clever Again – Tried turf for first time last out in a G2. Ran well despite issues. Dangerous here.
2 – Native Runner – Off slow last out, but prior efforts solid including a win. Back to one mile is key.
7 – New Century – Adds blinkers after okay efforts in G1s. Class relief helps.
Rich’s Ranks
7 – New Century – Back-to-back 100 speed figs. More coming third up.
4 – Giocoso – Top Total Pace horse, off G2 win.
11 – Rolando – First time on turf. Numbers fit, but unknown.
1 – Namaron – G3 winner in Germany. Jury still out on form.
10 – Clever Again
12 – Capitol Hill
Race 9 – 6 ½ Furlongs
Bias: Stalkers, 36% w2w – PP: Outside In, None from Rail
Tom’s Picks
9 – Kilwin – Returns to turf after 2 dirt wins including a G1. Won a stakes here last season.
5 – Tabiti – Won a G3 at Goodwood last time. Distance fits well.
4 – Abientot – Late runner. Missed at Saratoga in sprints but third here last year. Added distance helps.
Rich’s Ranks
9 – Kilwin – TLRSP#+7 with more than 2 length LS edge.
10 – Shisospicy – Pacesetter with best C-Zone.
5 – Tabiti – Pair of G3 wins in England. Dettori hot at KD.
3 – Classic Q – Speed type. Cutback helps.
8 – Shezafunkydrummer
14 – Pop Idol
Race 10 – 6 ½ Furlongs
Bias: Stalkers, 36% w2w – PP: Outside In, None from Rail
Tom’s Picks
8 – Spiced Up – Undefeated 3YO. Won a G3 at Saratoga last time. Turf has turned him around.
12 – Bridle a Butterfly – Toss mud race. Won Churchill stakes prior. Distance may test him, but late runner.
5 – Antisocial – Three good turf runs. Drops in distance. Early foot makes him a board threat.
Rich’s Ranks
6 – Chasing Liberty – Solid run in only KD start. Comes off bench ready.
9 – Mi Bago – TLRSP#+7. One of two with par races. All or nothing.
8 – Spiced Up – Three straight speed fig jumps, G3 win, second-up today.
15 – Litigation (AE)
3 – Warheart
Race 11 – 1 ½ Miles
Bias: Closers, 1/5 w2w – PP: Inside 3 None, 4-7 Discount, 8+ Big Bonus
Tom’s Picks
7 – Utah Beach – Ran well for fourth in Saratoga G1. Loves this distance (4 wins from 8). Top pick.
11 – Fort Washington – Won last out in G1 with late kick. First try at this distance, but style suits.
6 – Grand Sonata – Finished second in last two. Won this race last year wiring at 15-1. Could repeat.
Rich’s Ranks
11 – Fort Washington – Big late race edge, 2 length LS.
6 – Grand Sonata – Knocking on the door at shorter distances. Added ground helps.
5 – Mercante – Not much speed signed on, could control up front.
10 – Corruption – Best C-Zone. Winner of 5/9 on grass.
4 – Vote No
9 – Anglophile
Race 12 – 1 Mile
Bias: Closers, 20% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2/3 Fair, 4-7 Bonus, 8+ Discount
Tom’s Picks
10 – Massachusetts – Showed nothing in debut, but turf breeding and good works say better today.
2 – Orbit – Twice third on dirt and turf. Shorter trip puts him on the pace.
3 – Spun Legacy – Strong second turf start at Ellis. Narrowly missed. Sharp/Jockey switch to Irad could be key.
Rich’s Ranks
14 – Thunder Zeus (AE) – Second race improvement would make him tough.
12 – Thebabeslayer – Consistent, room for more in first route.
11 – Exonerate – Bounce back potential first time on turf.
4 – She’s On A Roll – Improved in both starts. Best work since debut.
2 – Orbit
3 – Spun Legacy
