Kentucky Downs Horse Racing Tips, Commentary, Analysis and Suggested Wagers
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: Albuquerque – https://www.guaranteedtipsheet.com/index.aspx?afid=hrt
Free Kentucky Downs Picks
Terry’s Picks:
Kentucky Downs – 8-28-25
Race 1-Female
8 – Aggressive Lime – She is first-time starter and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
4 – Backgammon – She has finished in the money in two of her three career starts and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
5 – Riotous – She is first-time starter whose Breeding suggests she will like the grass bred well for route distance and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
10 – More Carats – She finished 3rd in her last race, can improve while trying grass as her Dam has 3 winners from 5 starters and 1 Turf winner and she has a good 4F workout on Aug-22.
Alternate:
3 – Bounce
Bet: $1.00 Exacta Box: #4,5,8,10
Race 2-Female
7 – Muffin Music – She was off a bit slow and steadied which caused her to finish 4th in her debut race, and she has a high % winning trainer.
12 – Dolce Vino – She finished 3rd in her debut race and then ran in the mud and finished poorly and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
11 – Next Award – She is first-time starter whose breeding suggests she will like the grass and has a high % winning trainer.
Longshot:
10 – Last Curtain Call – She finished 3rd in her last race, and she has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
13 – Should’ve
Bet: $1.00 Exacta Box: #7,10,11,12
$.50 Pick 4: 7,10,11,12,13/1,5,7/1,7/5,7,8 – Cost $45.00
Race 3-Female
7 – Stellify – She has won her last two races in a row and now goes for a hat trick, and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
5 – Youknownothing – She finished 3rd in her last race at today’s distance, and she has a high % winning jockey.
1 – Holy Foley – She ran 2nd in her last race at today’s distance, only missing by a neck and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
4 – Parish Lane – She is a closer finishing 2nd in her only race at today’s distance, drops in class today and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
2 – Parish Lane
6 – Cha Cha Tap
Race 4-Female
7 – Foxxy Cleopatra – She has finished in the money in six of her seven career starts, winning three races, drops in class today and she has a high % winning trainer who wins 30% of the allowance races he has a horse competing in.
1 – Freedom Speaks – She is one for one at Kentucky Downs, she has a high % winning jockey Franco Dettori and she can handle the distance.
4 – Smiling Ellie – She has won three races out of the last four starts and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
6 – Crown Imperial – She won her only start at Kentucky Downs at today’s distance and she has a trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
2 – Do Gooder
8 – Out too Late
Bet: $1.00 Exacta Box: #1,4,6,7
Race 5-Female
5 – Unreasonable – She won her last race at Saratoga, has the highest last race speed rating and her best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters.
7 – Miwa – She has a high % winning trainer and jockey and her best turf speed is faster than the Avg Winning Speed.
8 – Lucky Speech – She has won three races out of her last seven starts, likes the distance and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
2 – Indy Label – She finished 3rd (on Dirt) in her last race, she has a high % winning trainer who wins 22% of the races when taking a horse from Dirt to Turf and she has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
4 – Candy Gray
1 – Stephanieswarrior
Race 6
9 – Intricate Spirit – He won his debut race, has a high % winning trainer who wins 30% of the races whose horses win 2YO races, he has a high % winning jockey and a bullet 4F workout on Aug-21.
6 – Thousandsticks – He is first-time starter whose breeding suggests he will like the grass and suits today’s sprint distance and he has a high % winning trainer.
7 – Street Beast – He finished 2nd in his debut race and he has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
10 – Easy Wind – He won his debut race, and he has a high % winning trainer.
Alternate:
5 – Collecting
Bet: $1.00 Exacta Box: #6,7,9,10
Race 7
12 – Turf Star – He finished 2nd in his debut race, has a high % winning trainer who wins 25% in a horse’s 1st at route race and he has high % winning jockey Franco Dettori.
3 – Tailored – He is first-time starter whose and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
6 – Thesheriffisnear – He is first-time starter whose breeding suggests he will like the grass and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
4 – Campaign Quote – He is first-time starter, has a high % winning trainer who wins 25% of the races in debut Turf racing a horse has.
Alternate:
9 – Ciborio
Bet: $10.00 Win & $20.00 Place: #12- $5.00 Exacta: #12/3,4,6 – $1.00 Exacta Box: #3,6,12
Race 8-Female
6 – Mackinac – She is a closer who can catch the front runners and win, she has the highest last race speed rating, her best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
4 – Sassy C W – She undefeated in three career starts, she has high % winning trainer and jockey and two bullet workouts in a row.
2 – Collective Beauty – She won her last race by 9-lenghts and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
7 – Satisfied Mind – She had lots of trouble in her last race finishing poorly so I will throw out the race, has a high % winning trainer who wins 27% of the 2YO races he has a horse running in and she has a good 4F workout on Aug-21.
Alternate:
9- Sapphire Beach
$.50 Pick 4: 2,4,6/6,10/6,7,12,14/4,7,9,10 – Cost $48.00
Race 9-Female
10 – Scattitude – She has finished in the money in three out of her five career starts, winning one of the races, running 2nd in her last race and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
6 – Mechaya – She has been competing in graded stakes races finishing poorly in her last start after plenty of trouble and should redeem herself today, drops in class today she has high % winning trainer and jockey and Lasix is added.
7 – Bunratty Manor – She drops in class today and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
8 – Theatrix – She has finished in the money in her last three starts, winning the last start and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
11 – Grade A
1 – Bundchen
Race 10–
14 – Lagynos – He has finished in the money in six of his last seven starts, winning two races, he high % winning trainer who wins 19% of the Non-Graded Stake races he has a horse competing in and he has a high % winning jockey.
12 – Nelson Avenue – He finished 2nd in his last race and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
7 – Cameo Performance – He has finished in the money in five of her nine career starts, winning two races, he has a high % winning jockey and blinkers added today.
Longshot:
6 – Multitask – He has won his last two races in a row and now goes for a hat trick and he has a high % winning trainer.
Alternate:
3 – Nineeleventurbo
Race 11–
10 – Eleven Bravo – He has been knocking at the door, finishing in 2nd in his last three races, he has a high % winning trainer and jockey and a bullet 4F workout on Aug-22.
7 – Timayyyy – He finished 2nd in his last race, he has the highest last race speed rating and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
9 – Western Run – He has a high % winning trainer and jockey and he has two bullet workout in a row.
Longshot:
4 – Montador – He won his last race at Colonial Downs, and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
11 – Ky Do Declare
3 – Barker
Best Bet of the Day at PARX Racing – 7th Race – 12 – Turf Star
Rich’s Picks:
Race 1: 1 Mile – Bias: Closers, 20% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2/3 Fair, 4-7 Bonus, 8+ Discount
5 – RIOTOUS – 3rd rated first timer with a back bullet on most inside post
8 – AGGRESSIVE LIME – 2nd rated first timer for trainer Brad Cox
4 – BACKGAMMON – +13 Top TOTAL PACE for the experienced horses
11 – COMBUSTIBLE MASS – Top Rated 1st timer – but outside post could hurt
$1 EX Box: 4,5,8,11
Race 2: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Stalker, 36% w2w – PP: Strong Outside In
13 – SHOULD’VE – Top Rated 1st Timer vs all noes with a back bullet and outside post
7 – MUFFIN MUSIC – 2nd race Parability by a handful of points
4 – AGRIPPINA – 2nd rated 1st timer with a back bullet
11 – NEXT AWARD – tough call over the 2 – but you can’t ignore PP bias
$0.50 Pick 4: 4,7,11,13/1,5,7/1,2,6,7/5,8
Race 3: 1 ½ Miles – Bias: 5 Races, Closers, 1/5 w2w – PP: 4/5 from 8+
7 – STELLIFY – 3SP# increases before going getting a rest – TLRSP+4 – Top TOTAL PACE +20
5 – YOUKNOWNOTHING – runs well off the sidelines – probably should rate behind the 1 – but once again – PP bias must be considered
1 – HOLY FOLEY – another with 3 SP# increases and bullet and go work 4f in 46.4 – by far her best published number
2 – PARISH LANE – biggest class dropper with strong maintenance work between starts
$4 Win: 7
Race 4: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Stalker, 36% w2w – PP: Strong Outside In
6 – CROWN IMPERIAL – just needs a better break this time – won lone trip at the distance
7 – FOXXY CLEOPATRA – six of her seven races should be good enough
1 – FREEDOM SPEAKS – finally healthy horse with a Bad PP – but limited resume says 2nd up will be better
2 – DO GOODER – TLRSP# +3 – faster fractions despite going longer – again, post could hurt
$0.50 Trifecta Box: 1,2,6,7
Race 5: 1 5/16 Miles – Bias: 9 Races, Stalkers, 0 w2w – PP: 1-7 Bonus, 8+ Struggled
5 – UNREASONABLE – TLRSP#+10 – top in race edge LS +7 – 3rd up with strong Breeding
8 – LUCKY SPEECH – won her lone KD trip at today’s distance with best SP#
7 – MIWA – top breeding for grass – been regressing, but maybe change to Joe Sharp barn ignites
2 – INDY LABEL – hard call over the 6 – but bigger odds and chance to be better in 2nd up with a touch more upside
Race 6: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Stalker, 36% w2w – PP: Strong Outside In
9 – INTRICATE SPIRIT – 2nd up Parability with 4 works since debut
10 – EASY WIND – another 2nd race Parability with a difficult trip in debut win – has heart
6 – THOUSANDSTICKS – 2.99 firster with robust works
7 – STREET BEAST – the last of the 2nd race Parabilities w/ potential LP edge
$1 Exacta Box: 6,7,9,10
Race 7: 1 Mile – Bias: Closers, 20% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2/3 Fair, 4-7 Bonus, 8+ Discount
3 – TAILORED – 3 of 3 firster with a back bullet
12 – TURF STAR – well bet in debut with an excuse – but still 2nd race Parability
4 – CAMPAIGN QUOTE – 2nd rated 1st timer – bullet and go – could be nice price
6 – THESHERIFFISNEAR – 3rd rated 1ster also with a back bullet
$0.50 Trifecta Box: 3,4,6,12
Race 8: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Stalker, 36% w2w – PP: Strong Outside In
6 – MACKINAC – TLRSP#+ 7 in debut – any improvement is more than enough
4 – SASSY C W – unbeaten in 3 – going out front – not surprising from a Larry Rivelli trainee
2 – COLLECTIVE BEAUTY – smoked in her debut as the 7/5 Favorite for tr Brad Cox
11 – FROSTY MOJITO – taking a flyer here – but I have noticed in all YES races – top – outlier C ZONES seems to always show up – probably going to regret not putting the 7 here
$0.50 Pick 4: 2,4,6/6,11/3,7,12,14/2,3,9,10
Race 9: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Stalker, 36% w2w – PP: Strong Outside In
11 – GRADE A – SIM FAV, Top TP, best C ZONE, Top PAR+ – Post fits
6 – MECHAYA – catches Lasix for the 1st time – 2 best runs after rest – like today
10 – SCATTITUDE – highly versatile – can run from anywhere on the track
7 – BUNRATTY MANOR – highly consistent performer – had troubles in 3/5 races – two races without issue – Luis Saez rode – who rides today?
$5 Exacta Key Box: 11/1,6,7,10
Race 10: 1 Mile 70 Yards – Bias: 2 Races – Speed, 1 w2w – PP: Both from 4-7
14 – LAGYNOS – has a KD win in two tries and rerunning last race would work
12 – NELSON AVENUE – if speed is going to win – this is the one +5 EP and Top TP 7
7 – CAMEO PERFORMANCE – better ATB in last – nice works since
3 – NINEELEVENTURBO – SIM FAV – lost to a decent horse in lone KD trip
$1 Exacta Box: 3,7,12,14
Race 11: 1 Mile – Bias: Closers, 20% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2/3 Fair, 4-7 Bonus, 8+ Discount
2 – SWIRLING EIGHTS – YES Horse SIM FAV – Top TP – Top PAR+ by decent amount
9 – WESTERN RUN – best published works by far since last and a YES Horse
10 – ELEVEN BRAVO – very consistent YES horse – better EP and 3rd up
3 – BARKER – top rated firster with back and bullet and go
