Kentucky Downs Full Card Tips, Analysis and Suggested Wagers
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Kentucky Downs Picks and Comments
22 to 1 Tom’s Tips
1st Race
8 – Watchtower
First-time starter for Chad Brown – 20% with first timers & 18% with debut turf runners.
Average works all on the dirt.
Breeding is all turf.
He should get bet down.
2 – Fun Loving
The first start had an issue out of the starting gate, pulling wide, and then stayed on to run 4th at Ellis.
Maybe the 1 mile would suit this horse if he learned from the last race.
Workout okay coming into this race.
1 – Moonlight Gambler
It was the same race as my 2nd choice, and she also had a troubled trip but made up 9L to run 5th, losing by 3L for a placing.
Workout average coming into this race; she may have just needed a start.
2ND Race
9 – Ogema Bay
Ran 6th by 15L in the first start at Gulfstream with issues and bumping.
The last workouts were at Saratoga on the training turf course, not fast but this tells me they saw enough to think this race was best for her.
She was 23-1 last out, and I think I will get the same odds.
3 – Etheric
He hasn’t raced since June 2022, but good overall record of never being out of money and has made money run coming off a layoff.
She will be in the back of the field and make one run.
Maybe this course will suit her for a win, but I have at least used her on my tickets and how she ran in maiden races in the past.
1 – Heckled
Moved to the lead in the last race and was caught at the end, running 2nd.
Ran 2nd in the race before.
He will keep up with the leaders throughout the race.
The 1 mile may suit this horse better.
3RD Race
2 – Arrest Me Red
Fought hard and lost by a head in the last race at Saratoga.
All his previous race has been either in graded or stakes company.
Won a grade 2 at Churchill.
Ran third here last year in a graded stakes race.
Off the last race, he looks good. My only question is that extra ½ furlong, he’s never run the 6 1/2 F before.
5 – Heaven Street
Won the last race at Belmont on yielding going and did it going wire to wire.
A winner at KD before. The other was a graded stakes race and ran 5th.
Changed trainers coming into this race from Welsh to Maker.
He has 14 turf runs with four wins, one second and three-thirds.
7 – Mischievous Rogue
He has won his last three races with one on the all-weather and two on the turf.
He has won off a layoff.
He is one of these horses who has improved as he has gotten older.
He has 3 turf starts and 2 wins.
4th Race
5 – B G Warrior
She showed good speed last out and faded at Ellis going 7F.
She had one turf start and ran 5th, and it was a stakes race.
She’s one win on the all-weather and four placings.
This is a class drop for her, and if they can set a reasonable pace, she could go all the way.
Very good workouts coming into this race on the all-weather.
8 – Zoom Erin
She tried stakes company last time out, and it didn’t go very well, running 9th of 9 by 12L.
Her other two turf races were winning efforts, and one was against older horses.
She should be close to the leaders, and let’s see how she handles that uphill climb to the finish. Hopefully, she will have something left.
11 – Madrilena
Came off a layoff to run 5th last out at Ellis. Close to the pace early, made a bid for the lead and then was done.
She needed the race, and fitness maybe wasn’t 100%.
Since coming from Argentina, has a spotty record of two seconds and one third.
She did run at KD and just missed by a head.
Off the last race, it suggests to me she is ready for a good run here.
5TH Race
1 – Thunder Ball
The best way to describe the first start is all over the place. He shifted around but kept going. As I see it, it is a learning experience.
One fast workout coming into this race and the best workout of his recorded workouts.
The last workout appears to be more of a maintenance workout.
11 – Can Group
Two starts on the dirt at Ellis and ran third both times.
It was no match for the first two finishers, losing by 15L.
He’s been trying in both his starts.
Breeding suggests turf, and there are winners in his family.
Did Mark Casse place this horse to see what he has, or he knows something?
5 – Augustine Red
Ran third in the first start and cut the corner nicely to get up in time.
Workouts are average, and Eddie Kenneally’s record with horses racing for the 2nd time on turf is a 33%-win rate from 6 starters.
An interesting one to consider.
6th Race
4 – Just Say When
He hasn’t raced since December 2022, and the race was run in the starting gate, very upset.
The race before wasn’t much better.
But the allowance race at KD was a winning effort at 6 1/2F.
Workouts look good for a return to the races.
Was this spot pick because he won before?
3 – Gatlinburg
After failures on the dirt, the last start was a 1-mile turf race, and he went wire to wire as the favorite. So, he’s one-for-one on the turf.
The other factor may be that the blinkers were taken off.
Let’s see if he can go two for two.
12 – Good Heart
He won two races at Ellis this season on the dirt in starter and claiming races going wire to wire in both.
Switched to an allowance race last out on the turf and had issues in the race. He was trapped on the inside. Did he want to give more?
He won his maiden race at KD and then ran in stakes races and top-end allowance race, and they were not good.
The post position sucks but..
Jamie Spencer is to ride for Brendan Walsh.
7th Race
7 – Smoke Wagon
Tried all-weather for the first time, was wide, dueled, and didn’t finish.
His other three races were on the dirt and nothing special.
Good gate workout coming into this race on the all-weather.
Is it turf that he wants? Well, the breeding says yes.
9 – Spanish Doubloon
The first start of the 3yo season was not great. He was bumped several times, showed some early pace, and then went backward. Needed a race and a better trip.
If you toss the dirt race, he’s done okay on the turf but not a winning effort yet.
His best run was at KD and missed by a nose-running second.
Did the prep at Saratoga give him some foundation for this race?
2 – Mo Saturdays
What I see in the form and comment lines is he is trying.
He won at the FG but was DQ’ed.
He has been a “cloud” running and getting going late.
We are having a distance switch from the two-turn turf races to a sprint, and the other sprint he ran in, he missed by 1/2L running second.
8th Race
3 – Gaslight Dancer
First start of the season in a stakes race at Saratoga, he was bumped at the start, moved up within 1 1/2L, and then evened out—needed race.
He’s run the 1-mile distance once, and that was the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile Turf. He had post position 14 and ran 6th at the odds of 66-1.
Now, with a race under his belt, he is ready to roll here.
He won his maiden race at KD by 5L last year.
6 – Talk of the Nation
This is a horse that is getting better with each race.
Last out a Belmont going 1-mile in a grade 3 race, he ran second by 1 1/2L and he fought in that race.
He has two wins on the turf, both at Tampa.
Turf workouts at Saratoga look good and he’s fit to have a big effort here.
9 – Wadsworth
He has gone off as the favorite in his last three races, missed by a nose in one of them, and won the other two.
These were in listed races that had good money offered and good fields.
He has also done some nice races on the all-weather.
Oh, by the way, this horse is owned by Godolphin.
9th Race
3 – Queen Picasso
Ran second in the last race on the turf at Woodbine in a grade 3 race, going 1 mile.
The race before at Belmont, she won going 7F.
Her workouts are good, but the last one shows me she is ready to go on the turf at Saratoga training track 4F :47.4B.
Jamie Spencer has the ride.
5 – Mammas Girl
Ran her last race at Newbury, going 7F. When asked to go she did but lack room and was carried out, losing lengths but still managing 4th.
Early in the season, in her first race going 7F, she won a Group 3 race at Newmarket.
Then they decided to try higher level 3yo races running against Mawj, Tahiryra, Swingalong, and other good horses.
The six 1/2F suits her, and she gets Florent Geroux to ride.
She has shown a liking to the firm turf course.
10 – L J’s Emma
She won her last three races at five 1/2F and keeps improving with each race.
Came from off the pace to win at Saratoga by a neck last out at 17-1.
Improving 3yo finding herself on the turf to her liking.
She will be running at the end, and let’s see if the pace of the race helps her.
10th Race
6 – Ancient Rome
After racing in France, he was sent to England, and under new trainer Charlie Hills, he won his first start in a class 2 race at Goodwood at 33-1.
He has been racing in group company in France, but the most recent win was in an allowance race at Chantilly.
But he was completive in many of his races.
15 starts, five wins, 3 seconds, two thirds. One win was on the all-weather.
Jamie Spencer to ride and an exciting move to ship this horse over for this big dollar race. They must think big things are to come.
8 – Churchtown
His last race at Woodbine in a grade 2 race was, well, a very strange race in the stretch. Ran 4th by 1 1/4L. He got it together when it was too late.
In most races, he is on or near the lead. Last race, he was in the rear.
He lost by a head to Annapolis at CD on derby day.
His record at 1 mile is four starts one win, and 3 seconds.
He will be right in the thick of the battle if he runs his typical race.
10 – Annapolis
I can’t leave this horse off my ticket, but this is KD.
In the last two races at Saratoga in graded company, he was beaten by the best miler in the country in Casa Creed.
He sits back and moves mid-race.
His horse has run only one really bad race, which happened to be in the Breeder’s Cup Mile Turf with issues at the start, which is very uncommon for this horse.
If he likes this course, he could win and certainly will be the favorite.
11th Race
7 – Calm Cool
The first three races of his career were not great. He was tired at the end or just plain didn’t run.
Then in the last race, he moved up between horses and was 6th by 2 3/4L.
Considering he’s been losing by 7L or more in his other three races, this is a major improvement.
The five 1/2L sprint was his type of race, one one-turn race.
Workouts are okay coming into this race.
The trainers’ record of the third run after a layoff is 32% win rate.
Price shot here, my type of horse showing life.
5 – Tidal Tactics
First-timer start who is bred to love the turf.
Workouts are ok
Trainers’ record, however, is not great with first timers and turf horses.
But with her breeding by English Channel out a Galileo mare, I am willing to take a chance.
9 – Cowichan
She keeps it interesting in all her five maiden runs.
She’s always in the money but not getting it done for the win.
It’s an expensive Wesley Ward horse who has one start this year in April at Keeneland and ran good as the favorite.
Is it she’s a professional maiden?
Rich’s Ranks
Race 1: 1 Mile Turf – Day 1 – 3 Races – 2 Stalkers and a Closer, Winners Posts 4,5,6
2 – FUN LOVING – really bad start in debut and rallied for 4th by 1 ½ lengths, put some quicker works in here to get off to a better start
14 – JUDGEMENT (AE) – if she gets in – TLRSP#, hopped and off to a slow start in her debut, another looking for a better start
11 – ENIGMATIC – 1st timer for tr Brad Cox, consistent work pattern and decent turf breeding
8 – WATCHTOWER – Chad Brown first timer with solid work pattern, like the July 31 work followed by 4 to keep her sharp
4 – PHAROAH’S WINE
15 – JOKE MASTER
Race 2: 1 Mile Turf – Day 1 – 3 Races – 2 Stalkers and a Closer, Winners Posts 4,5,6
1 – HECKLED – TLRSP# and missed graduating by a neck in the last two, major ATB increases last out with dynamic LP
16 – BLESSING THE FLAG (AE) – one of two with a trip over KD, finished 3rd – 5 yo vs a trio of 4 yo and the rest are 3 yo
4 – LADY EMILY KATHRYN – good, solid run in debut with lower case Z pattern, plenty of good workouts between March debut and today
12 – SPIRIT AND FIRE – we saw a lot of speed hold on opening day, she could be out by herself and has good pedigree for grass
3 – ETHERIC
6 – DREAM FLY
Race 3: 6 ½ Furlongs – Day 1 – 5 Races 2 w2w, 2 pressured the lead, 1 closer – PP: 4,6,7,8,9
2 – ARREST ME RED – TLRSP#, did regress last couple of 2nd up efforts, a couple blah maintenance works since – a third at KD last year with a career best speed number
5 – HEAVEN STREET – been off since July 4th, tie TLRSP# and a bunch of nice works prepping, 1st up record is concerning
6 – BAKERS BAY – maybe a horse for the course? A win and place in a pair of outings, record says as good maybe a touch better in round two off the bench
7 – MISCHIEVOUS ROGUE – won two off three on turf, should be part of the EP but has also shown he can close
1 – COUNTY FINAL
3 – CHASING TIME
Race 4: 6 ½ Furlongs – Day 1 – 5 Races 2 w2w, 2 pressured the lead, 1 closer – PP: 4,6,7,8,9
10 – ACCOMPLISHED GIRL – top Total Pace Horse, TLRSP# and could be pacesetter
13 – AMERICAN STARLET (AE) – Wesley Ward horse with some really fast works getting ready for first race sine June 22
11 – MADRILENA – has a second by a neck at KD where she gave up the lead late, zoomed higher in only other second start in US
3 – FREE AND HUMBLE – 4 SP# increases in a row, third after a layoff and drops off a win
6 – CURRENT CLIMATE
12 – ABOUKIR BAY
Race 5: 7 Furlongs – Bias: 7 Races Last Year, Closers – 2 w2w – PP: None from Rail, 2/3 Fair, 4-7 Best w/ Bonus, 8+ Under Par
16 – FRONTLINE WARRIOR (AE) – TLRSP# at highest rated race for these at Toga, a trio of nice works since
14 – COMMITTEE OF ONE (AE) – very consistent, professional effort from start o finish in his debut, Chris P angle – any step forward would be enough
2 – TWIRLING POINT – consistent work pattern, decent times, and tr Jonathan Thomas wins debut at 19%
4 – EDGARTOWN – 1st time starter with some of the best Turf Breeding and on schedule works getting prepped
5 – AUGUSTINE RED
11 – CAN GROUP
Race 6: 7 Furlongs – Bias: 7 Races Last Year, Closers – 2 w2w – PP: None from Rail, 2/3 Fair, 4-7 Best w/ Bonus, 8+ Under Par
4 – JUST SAY WHEN – won at KD with career best sp#, solid 1st up record, both wins, including KD, a pair of 2nd – but 10th in last fresh run
12 – GOOD HEART – also 1 for 1 on KD grass with an easy debut win at 1m – all or nothing on the lead and interesting to note Tyler G rides the 4 for the first time after riding here for 2 of 3 wins
11 – DUNEDIN – lone win at KD at AlW $250k, last race better than it looks with some of his fastest fractions
2 – FELIX – going on grass for the 1st time, consistent performer, highly probable he improves 2nd up and we’ll see if he runs angry 1st time gelded
7 – MR. PEEKS
13 – ZARTOWNIS (AE)
Race 7: 6 ½ Furlongs – Day 1 – 5 Races 2 w2w, 2 pressured the lead, 1 closer – PP: 4,6,7,8,9
12 – STRAIGHT AND LEVEL – TLRSP#, missed by a ½ length in debut, bullet on Aug 14 and then maintenance work
3 – BEER RUN – Wesley Ward, been consistent on the track and some good workouts getting ready for fist face since mid July
9 – SPANISH DOUBLOON – only horse with KD experience, 2nd by a nose and gets 1st Lasix here
1 – CIGARETTE BOAT – 3rd up – faster fractions last out and bullet work between races
4 – ELEGANT TRIP
10 – SIX MISSIONS
Race 8: 1 Mile Turf – Day 1 – 3 Races – 2 Stalkers and a Closer, Winners Posts 4,5,6
3 – GASLIGHT DANCER – chance to be better in 2nd up, 1 for 1 at KD for $250k – only with KD experience
9 – WADSWORTH – nose away from winning 5 of last 6, won last two, faster fractions despite going longer in last and 3rd up – so far 50/50
6 – TALK OF THE NATION – really nice works preparing for 1st race since July 7, proven he can win 1st up
10 – MAJOR DUDE – does nothing but run competitively in graded stakes races – a times brilliant or late, so far hasn’t put the two together
7 – COMMUNICATION MEMO
1 – GEORGIE W
Race 9: 6 ½ Furlongs – Day 1 – 5 Races 2 w2w, 2 pressured the lead, 1 closer – PP: 4,6,7,8,9
16 – PLAYLIST (AE) – 7 point Total Pace edge, winner three in a row, plenty of EP with mid race burst
1 – DANSE MACABRE – 1 for 1 at KD and distance, been off since May but won last two 1st up races and 2nd in debut – all good stuff
8 – AMERICAN APPLE – also won her lone KD trip – MSW off the sidelines, like today, fast bullet on Aug 18 at Keeneland 4f in 46.2 – horse is ready, just hope she didn’t leave her best on the backside
10 – L J’S EMMA – TLRSP# at Saratoga in third close win in a row, 2 SP# increases, tends to make a big mid move and carry momentum to the wire
7 – SECRET MONEY
5 – MAMMAS GIRL
Race 10: 1 Mile Turf – Day 1 – 3 Races – 2 Stalkers and a Closer, Winners Posts 4,5,6
10 – ANNAPOLIS – 3rd up – best of three in only other 3 race cycle, legit horse on Turf 11/6-4-0, Distance 7/3-3-0
5 – SMOKIN’ T – much better through the first ½ mile in last race, bullet work since
8 – CHURCHTOWN – 8 high-quality starts in last 10 outings, missed to the top pick by a head when they met
12 – MAX K. O. – longshot here, but the 7 yo has 2 wins in 2 KD races, just 10 in 43 races anywhere else
2 – ATONE
6 – ANCIENT ROME
Race 11: 6 ½ Furlongs – Day 1 – 5 Races 2 w2w, 2 pressured the lead, 1 closer – PP: 4,6,7,8,9
9 – COWICHAN – 3sp# increases, alpha angle, TLRSP# and a bunch of nice works for first race since April 23rd – top Total Pace +7
15 – FANCY CABER NEIGH (AE) – been well bet in both starts, significant improvement in 2nd start, 1st Lasix and another step forward would be more than enough
16 – SNOW PRINCESS (AE) – crazy start in last, rallied for 4 by just ¾ lengths – added furlong today could help
12 – SICKLE DANCE – re-rallied in debut, a little unusual for first timers, should be more confident today
3 – CANDY BAR
7 – CALM COOL
