Kentucky Downs Horse Racing Tips, Commentary, Analysis and Suggested Wagers
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Free Kentucky Downs Racing Picks
Terry Hollywood Hay’s Picks:
Kentucky Downs -9-11-24
Race 1
8 – Captain Fancy – He ran 2nd in his last race, has the highest last race speed rating and his best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters.
3 – El Oso – He ran 2nd in his last race and increased his speed rating by 13-points.
4 – Cutlass King – He is first-time starter whose breeding suggests he will like the grass; he has a high % winning trainer who wins 33% of the races with horses competing for the 1st time and he has a good 5F workout on Aug-29.
Longshot:
6 – Coastertothemoon – He first-time starter whose breeding suggests he will like the grass; he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
9 – So Grand
1 – Storm the Streets
Bet: $1.00 Exacta Box: #3,4,6,8
Race 2
2 – Material Witness – He has an early foot which will help, his best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
7 – Bloody Colors Wave – He ran 2nd in his last race and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
8 – Moringa – He ran 2nd in his last race, he has a trainer who wins 22% in a horse’s 2nd career race and he has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
5 – Mo Attitude – He ran 3rd in his last race, he has a high % winning trainer and jockey and Lasix & blinkers are added.
Alternate:
6 – From Scratch
Bet: $1.00 Exacta Box: #2,5,7,8
Race 3
10 – Stormin Tanda – He won his last race, his Dam has produced 1 Turf winner, he has a high % winning trainer who wins 25% of the races with horses in their second race since their maiden win and he has a high % winning jockey.
2 – Demolition Duke – He ran 3rd in his last race as the favorite but has a trainer who wins 21% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again and he has a high % winning jockey.
1- El Rey Rey – He comes in from Southern California and he has high % winning jockey Irad Ortiz, the rail post is winning at 19% clip and he has a good 4F workout on Aug-30.
Longshot:
9- Glacial Power – He ran 5th in his in his last race after being bumped at the start and he has high % winning jockey Jose Ortiz, and he has a trainer who wins 21% of the allowance he has an entry in.
Alternate:
13 – Tunisian Spring
$.50 Pick 4: 1,2,9,10/3,6,8,10/1,2,13/6,9– Cost $48.00
Bet: $1.00 Exacta Box: #1,2,9,10
Race 4-Female
8 – Ramsey Pond – She has a high % winning trainer and jockey; the longer distance may be a plus and blinkers added today.
10 – Mambo Queen – She is first-time starter whose breeding suggests she will like the grass, she has a high % winning trainer and jockey and a good 4F workout on Aug-30.
3 – Lush Lips – She comes in from Ireland after finishing 2nd and she has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
6 – Fixin to Bee – She trainer who wins 22% of the races in the 2nd career race a horse has and she has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
5 – Tizntshelovely
Bet: $1.00 Exacta Box: #3,6,8,10
Race 5
13 – Dominican Pioneer – He has a perfect record at Kentucky Downs, winning two races out of two starts, drops in class today, he has high % winning jockey and a bullet 5F workout on Aug-26.
1 – Mischievous Angel – He ran 4th in his last race after being bumped and pinched off at the start and he has high % winning jockey Irad Ortiz and he has high % winning trainer.
2 – Dude N Colorado – He finished 3rd in his last race, has the highest last race speed rating, can improve at the shorter distance and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
3 – Double Clutch – He drops in class today and has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
4 – Oscar’s World
Race 6
9 – Reverse Merger – He ran 4th in his last race after getting a slow start, he has a high % winning trainer who wins 36% of the races in the 2nd route race he has a horse run in and he has a high % winning jockey.
6 – Fleming – He finished 3rd in his last race, has a high % winning trainer who wins 22% in a horses in the 2nd grass race a horse competes in and he has a high % winning jockey and a bullet 5F workout on Sep-05.
7 – Lucky Mischief – He has a high % winning jockey and he has a good 4F workout on Sept-03.
Longshot:
3 – Power of Will – He is first-time starter whose breeding suggests he will like the grass and he has a high % winning trainer.
Alternate:
8 – High Limit
Bet: $1.00 Exacta Box: #3,6,7,9
Race 7 -Female
10 – Lute Warm – She has won three races in a row and she has high % winning trainer and jockey.
7 – Justifiable Belle – She has won two races in a row and is now going for a hat trick and has a high % trainer and jockey.
1 – Join the Dance – She finished 3rd in her last race and has an early foot so the shorter distance should help.
Longshot:
13 – Heavenly Appointed – She drops in class today, she has high % winning trainer and jockey and has a good 5F workout on Aug-31.
Bet: $10.00 Win & $20.00 Place: #10 – $10.00 DD:10/1
$.50 Pick 4: 7,10/1,7,9/1,3,6,9/1,2,6,8 – Cost $48.00
Race 8
1 – The Grey Wizard – He has won the last two starts and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
9- Familiar Dreams – He won his last race in Ireland and comes to the USA to see if he can repeat that win, he has a high % winning trainer who wins 60% of the races in Non-Graded Stakes he has a horse running in and he has a high % winning jockey.
7 – Limited Liability – He ran 2nd in his last race, switches to a high % jockey and he has high % winning trainer.
Longshot:
8 – Conglomerate – He has finished in the money in four out of her last five starts, and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Race 9-Female
9 – Pin Up Betty – She has finished in the money in eight out of her last ten starts, winning two of the races, running 2nd in her last race and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
6 – Kathynmarissa – She has finished in the money in her last four starts, winning two of the starts, she has high % winning trainer and she has high % winning jockey Frankie Dettori.
1 – Waves of Mischief – She won her last race and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
3 – Yatta – She has finished in the money in six of her seven career starts, winning two races and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
5- Siege of Troy
Race 10-Female
1 – Pure Breeze – She has a high % winning trainer and jockey and the rail post is winning at 19% clip.
2 – Isle of Capri – She is first-time starter whose breeding suggests she will like the grass and she has a good 4F workout on Aug-30.
6 – Cheetah Lady – She is first-time starter whose breeding suggests she will like the grass and distance and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
8 – Anna’s Promise – She broke slowly in her debut race and finished 4th, her breeding suggests she will like the grass and switches to a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
4 – Sweet Star
Best Bet of the Day at PARX Racing – 7th Race – 10 – Lute Warm
Rich’s Picks:
Race 1: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Stalkers, 32% w2w – PP: Strong Rail, 2-7 Discount, 8+ Fair
6 – OASTERTOTHEMOON – 2.8 first timer with a back bullet
8 – CAPTAIN FANCY – 2nd race improvement could push him past par for this level
13 – HOFF – the 2nd best 1st timer versus a field that hasn’t come close to reaching the level needed to win here
1 – STORM THE STREETS – can’t ignore the benefit of the rail
Race 2: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Stalkers, 32% w2w – PP: Strong Rail, 2-7 Discount, 8+ Fair
11 – UNHIDDEN GEM – 2nd race improvement – well bet in Saratoga debut – strong breeding
2 – MATERIAL WITNESS – rerun her lone KD race and she finally graduates
7 – BLOODY COLORS WAVE – another that moves forward in her second race and she’ll be a handful to overcome
5 – MO ATTITUDE – hit the sidelines as a 2 yo -comes back and gets 1st Lasix as a 3 yo – builds at all on her last race and lookout
Race 3: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Stalkers, 32% w2w – PP: Strong Rail, 2-7 Discount, 8+ Fair
13 – TUNISIAN SPRING – 2nd by a head in his debut at KD – most upside by a longshot so fat
2 – DEMOLITION DUKE – turf 5/0-3-2 and been squaring up versus the toughest competition
10 – STORMIN TANDA – hidden upside potential in just the 3rd start and the first two were close enough to beat almost all of these
8 – AJAAYB – tough call over the 9, but 3rd in the only other 3 race cycle improved tons over the 2nd
Race 4: 1 Mile – Bias: Stalkers, 13% w2w – PP: Inside 3 Bonus, 4-7 Discount, 8+ Penalty
Wide open race
3 – LUSH LIPS – Irish invader that probably faced better in both races
1 – EL JOURY – heavily bet in her debut – definitely going forward
10 – MAMBO QUEEN – breeding is there, trainer is there, and works are there for debut
6 – FIXIN TO BEE – typical 2nd race improvement is enough – been off since July with plenty of works
Race 5: 7 Furlongs – Bias: Stalkers, 1/8 w2w – PP: Rail Bonus Best, 2-7 Discount, 8+ Bonus
Another wide open race
13 – DOMINICAN PIONEER – unbeaten in a pair at KD
1 – MISCHIEVOUS ANGEL – giant step up in only other 2nd up
10 – TWO EAGLES RIVER – makes strong mid moves – first on grass but the off track races say no worries
2 – DUDE N COLORADO – lone EP type – strong breeding – will be pilot or co pilot
Race 6: 1 Mile – Bias: Stalkers, 13% w2w – PP: Inside 3 Bonus, 4-7 Discount, 8+ Penalty
6 – FLEMING – might be the biggest favorite of the day
10 – COALMOON – 2nd race improvement – 9 will likely be lower odds – both debuted at Ellis – this one ran more than a second faster at 1 mile
9 – REVERSE MERGER – decently bet in debut – off to a slow, slow start but rallied hard late
5 – BALTORO – longshot first timer with strong breeding, solid works, but trainer 9/0-0-0 at KD
Race 7: 1 Mile – Bias: Stalkers, 13% w2w – PP: Inside 3 Bonus, 4-7 Discount, 8+ Penalty
10 – LUTE WARM – only question to answer is long break and competition faced
9 – STRIKINGLY SPUN – 3 sp# increases and has a 3rd in lone KD race
1 – JOIN THE DANCE – cannot pass on the best of the inside 3 horses considering the bias
7 – JUSTIFIABLE BELLE – is a neck from winning three in a row and all 3 wins came at a mile in 5 races – oh for 5 at any other length
Race 8: 2 1/16 Miles – Bias: No Races
1 – THE GREY WIZARD – has the most upside in the race and regularly beat a lot of the other main contenders
3 – CYBER NINJA – have to give him a chance because you know many of the others haven’t been able to beat the 1
9 – FAMILIAR DREAMS – well bet in both Irish races and won at 2m last out
7 – LIMITED LIABILITY – of the horses that faced the one, came the closest to beating it
Race 9: 1 5/16 Miles – Bias: Closers, 2/9 w2w – PP: Big Rail Edge, 2/3 Bad, 4+ Small Bonus
6 – KATHYNMARISSA – always close at the end – first time making 3rd up – bullet work since
5 – SIEGE OF TROY – competitive run in a Group III in Ireland – should fit here
12 – DANCING N DIXIE – will be closing in third off the sidelines, should look a lot like her last
11 – MO FOX GIVIN – another making the third start off the sideling and drops from a GIII
Race 10: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Stalkers, 32% w2w – PP: Strong Rail, 2-7 Discount, 8+ Fair
11 – REAGAN ALICE – 2.9 – back bullet and best works
7 – NILE VALLEY – 2.9 as well with best string of works
8 – ANNA’S PROMISE – 2nd race improvement
2 – ISLE OF CAPRI – 2.8 – strong breeding
Thomas’s Picks:
RACE 1
9 – So Grand
He showed some early speed in his first race and then didn’t show much at all to run tenth. So, today they add blinkers and good foundation of a good workout from the starting gate. Add Irad and you have a winner.
10 – Tap ‘Em’ Out
He has some incredibly good workouts including the last one on the Hawthorne turf course. Add that he is by Tapit and cost $40k (stud fee is $185k) and the mare foals to race, eight starters, six are winners, two have won stakes races and three have won on the turf. This is good for me to run in the money at a price.
3 – El Oso
His first start was a off the turf dirt race, and he ran around the track. His second start was on the turf, two turns and ran much better by making the lead early and getting caught at the end. The owners paid a whole $1k for the horse. Off the last effort, he must be considered.
RACE 2
10 – Jerseys Parade
She is a first-time starter with some excellent workouts on the all-weather. The :34.4 breezing from the starting gate is exceptional. The very little in the breeding to suggest she will like the turf and this is the first foal to race. But the trainers recent record is surprisingly good from a small number of starters, nineteen starters won at the rate of 26% and in the money 42% with a positive ROI. I looked at this, found a few that have been okay to good in their starts but nothing exceptional. This will be my top pick.
11 – Unhidden Gem
Her first race was at Saratoga, she broke from the one hole, came out well, was rated behind horses, pulled up for the stretch run and did not finish behind by 3 plus lengths. Good first try overall. Second time around will be a better effort and will caught out wide and must final kick. I think she will.
5 – Mo Attitude
She has started twice; the first race was forgettable. The second race was a good third on the all-weather and they laid her off until now. In the last race, she ran into some trouble at the start, and it was not the cleanest of trips. She has some good workouts, especially the last one and appears ready for a top effort.
RACE 3
3 – Surf City
He is coming into this race off a win at Ellis where he closed well to get the win by two lengths. He got the advantage of an inside trip and with today’s post, they should rate him that way again. He moves up in class. He again has excellent workout coming into this race. There appears to be a lot of speed/front-runners in this race and with his closing kick, I think he gets the job done.
2 – Demolition Duke
In his six starts this year, he has gone off the favorite in every race and not won but is doing a superb job coming in second, third or fourth. The only fourth place finish was on the dirt. It is hard for me to leave him off the ticket based on his consistency.
7 – Where Ya At Vince
Of the horses who have speed, this horse has the least experience with only two races. He won on the dirt in his first start at Keeneland and ran fourth last time at Hawthorne on the grass. The horse switched trainers before this start. His workouts are fast and the break between the two has not slowed down the workouts. Of the horse I think can hold on for third, he is my choice. (Watch him win)
RACE 4
8 – Ramsey Pond
Raced at Kentucky Downs on opening day and had pace moved forward but in way was getting to the winner and ran fourth beaten by over ten lengths. Adding blinkers today. Returns for the final day and with experience and Irad will get the win this time.
7 – Party Queen
She has some good workouts to suggest she is ready for her first start. Mare has produced five foals to race, four are winners and two have won on the turf. Mike Maker is lighting up the meet but this is an interesting starter.
5 – Tizntshelovely
She ran three nondescripts’ races on the dirt. The first one was okay, the other two, awful. First start on the grass, she ran the best race so far finishing second by just over one length. She tried and failed to close on the winner. She looks good to me to continue to improve, as long as she running on the turf.
RACE 5
9 – County Final
His last three races have been against graded stakes company and one on the dirt at Oakland was okay but the other two were a complete bust. He is dropping down for this race and to get into the race, he has to run for a tag. He won here last year in a similar race by over four lengths. I think that with the drop, experience, and ability, he will win the race.
7 – Money War
He has not been out of the money in any of his five races. He won his first three race in front running style and the the last two, he has stalked the pace and did not better than third and second. Last time, at Hawthorne, he lost by half a length. Last race, he went off at short odds but the other have been 8-1 or better. I am playing him to run in the money.
1 – Mischievous Angel
The one post has not done well at Kentucky Downs, but this horse had all kinds of problems last time out at Saratoga and he has been competitive in all but one race (a stakes race). He get Irad and he will have some work to do if they are going to have a chance at the end.
RACE 6
6 – Fleming
He should be the favorite in the race. In his only start, he ran third with making a move and then not finishing. He needed a start to figure it out. Excellent workout coming in this race.
8 – High Limit
The first race was not a thing of beauty. He was bothered at the start and bumped. He moved okay in the middle of the race and then didn’t finish the race. This was his first start on the grass and the other two starts on the dirt were awful. He did show some early signs of life in the last dirt race but still was behind by 22 lengths at the end. Why play? Last race was the best effort yet and he will have a chance to run well here.
5 – Baltoro
First time starter with some good works on the all-weather. Bred for the turf. The mare has two foals to race, both are winners, both won on the turf, and one is a stakes winner. The trainer has done pretty well with turf debut horses, 40 starters, 13% winners, 35% in the money with a positive ROI. It should be interesting.
RACE 7
7 – Justifiable Belle
She won her last two races and then a layoff. These two wins are with the trainer and the horse was transferred to him. It appears that he figured her out. She won her first start to the new trainer coming off a layoff. Her workouts are at a training track so hard to measure. She has been in the money six of her nine starts on the grass with three wins. She should run close to the pace.
10 – Lute Warm
She has won three in a row and never been out of the money. She drew off in her last two starts winning by over four lengths. She broke her maiden in the mud in a off the turf race. Her speed figure really jumped in the last race. She should be on the lead and will have company but the way she been running, she will be right there at the end of the race.
2 – She’s Lookin Lucky
If Lute Warm is the outside speed, then this horse is the inside speed. Her two turf races have been really good with a win and a third by a one length. She has raced in pretty good company on and place in a stakes race on the dirt. Has she found her true and preferred racing surface on the grass? I think so.
RACE 8
9 – Familiar Dreams
Gordon Elliott must think a lot of this mare. She has only two starts and won her last race at Tramore in Ireland in a two-mile race and she five years old. The trainer has done very well shipping horse to this country and the percentage prove it. The other interesting fact is, she was bought at auction this year in the Goffs Sale for $332k. For a five-year-old? She’s here to win and using Gallalione is also interest.
1 – The Grey Wizard
He does not win by large margins, but he does win. He can be on the pace for close. He has won his last two races and appears to be getting better with age. He has run a few stinkers in his racing career. The favorite with the inside post and it’s a long race.
7 – Limited Liability
He has been running some very good races but winning races. He has seen the backend of the favorite in his last two races. He is a midpack closer who want something to run at or so it appears, but he is better at finishing third than winning. With sixteen starts on the turf, he has won two, ran second twice and third six times. That is why he is my third horse. May be Dettori will make the difference.
RACE 9
3 – Yatta
She won her last race at Laurel in an allowance as the favorite easily. She has placed in a graded stakes race and run decent numbers in all her races. She run good races with a record of seven starts, two wins two seconds and two thirds. She won her maiden at this track coming from off the pace. Morning line is 15-1.
5 – Siege of Troy
She ships in with only one win and that was at the Curragh going one and a quarter mile. She has placed into two other races and her last race at Cork was in a small field of six, group race, and she ran fourth by one plus lengths. Johnny Murtagh trained for Qatar Racing. In here for the money but really how good could she be? Will find out.
9 – Pin Up Betty
On the eighth in maiden races, she finally won and her next start, she won a graded stakes race. Okay, she ran well in some of her maiden’s races overall. Her last two races have been in graded stakes races and ran fourth by two plus lengths and missing by a head in her last race after setting the pace. Irad’s riding, so on the lead again.
RACE 10
2 – Isle of Capri
First time starter with some good workouts on the all-weather. The trainer has done well at this meet, and this looks like a wonderful way to finish. The mare has two foal who raced, one won on the grass.
1 – Pure Breeze
She run in one race, it was at this track and it was not a positive experience. He broke from the starting gate badly and never really recovered being too wide on the turn. Some of the horses that have started twice at Kentucky Downs have done well. With Irad, I think she will too even with the number one post position. May be that helps her?
6 – Cheetah Lady
First time starter with good, consistent workouts. The mare has produced one other foal to race, he won on the grass in his first start. The oddsmaker thinks she has a good chance and so do I.
