Kentucky Downs Horse Racing Tips, Commentary, Analysis and Suggested Wagers
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Free Kentucky Downs Racing Picks
Terry Hollywood Hay’s Picks:
Kentucky Downs -9-5-24
Race 1
9 – Rag Tree – He ran 2nd in his last race, has the highest last race speed rating and his best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters.
4 – Look to the Cross – He ran 3rd vs similar in his last race and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
1 – Discombobulaator – He finished 3rd in his last two starts, has a trainer who wins 20% when taking a horse from a sprint to route and blinkers are added today.
Longshot:
12 – Concrete Cruiser – He has two 2nd out of four career starts, he has a high % winning trainer who wins 19% of the races with horses in 1st race on grass and he has high % winning jockey.
Bet: $1.00 Exacta Box: #1,4,9,12
Race 2
10 – Warheart – He ran 2nd in his debut race, has a high % jockey and he has a high % winning trainer who wins 27% of the races in a horse’s 2nd career race.
4 – City of Oscars – He finish 4th in his debut race after steading and going wide on the turn during the race and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
1 – Sprint Out Pass – He has a high % winning trainer and he has a bullet 3F workout on Aug-28.
Longshot:
5 – Asleep At Eight – He had a poor finish in his last race but ran 2nd the race before, has a high % winning trainer and he has high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
3 – Anytime Anywhere
Bet: $1.00 Exacta Box: #1,4,5,10
Race 3
12 – Nostalgic One – He has won two races in a row and is now going for a hat trick and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
7 – Yellow Brick – He comes in from Southern California after finishing 2nd and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
6 – Write Off Jerry – He ran 2nd in his last two starts and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
3- Always Above – He ran 2nd in his last start and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
8 – Goldeneye
$.50 Pick 4: 6,7,12/1,2,3,5/3,7/2,3,8,12 – Cost $48.00
Bet: $1.00 Exacta Box: #3,6,7,12
Race 4
5 – Palm Tree – He is one for one at Kentucky Downs, he has the highest last race speed rating (tie), he has a high % winning trainer, can improve with Lasix added and he has a good 4F workout on Aug-27.
2 – Clever Mischief – He won his last race at Saratoga and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
3 – Degree of Risk – He ran 3rd in his last race, has the highest speed figure at today’s distance, his best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters and he has a good 5F workout on Aug-24.
Longshot:
1 – Into It – He won his last race at Aqueduct, he has two starts at today’s distance, finishing 1st and 2nd and he has a high % winning trainer and high % winning jockey Frankie Dettori.
Bet: $1.00 Exacta Box: #1,2,3,5
Race 5
7 – Better Bet – He has finished in the money in four out of five career starts, winning two of the starts including the last race at Saratoga and he has a high % winning jockey.
3 – Call Me Harry – He won his last race at Saratoga and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
6 – Camp Hope – He drops in class today, has a high % winning trainer and switches to a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
9 – Idratherbeblessed – He won his last race and he has high % winning trainer and jockey.
Bet: $10.00 Win & $20.00 Place: #7 – $10.00 DD:7/8
Race 6 -Female
8 – Queen Regent – She comes in from Europe after finishing 2nd in her last three starts, she has a high % winning trainer, Lasix is added and she has a good 5F workout on Aug-24.
12 – Grinning – She won her last race, has a high % winning trainer and jockey and she has a good 4F workout on Aug-25.
3 – Heart Spin – She finished 3rd in her last race, has a high % winning trainer who wins 37% with horses in Allowance races and she has a high % winning jockey and she has a bullet 5F workout on Aug-31.
Longshot:
2 – Moonlight Gambler – She is having a good year finishing in the money in four out of five starts, winning the last start, has a high % winning trainer and jockey and her best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Alternate:
9 – Parish Lane
Bet: $1.00 Exacta Box: #2,3,8,12
Race 7 -Female
1 – Jeweled City – She ran 2nd in her last race, she has the highest last race speed rating, her best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters and she has high % winning trainer and jockey.
7 – Poema – She ran 2nd in her last race, has a high % jockey and she has high % winning trainer who wins 23% of the races when shipping a horse in to run.
3 – Derry Girl – She ran 2nd in her last race and she has the 2nd best Prime Power number.
Longshot:
4 – Mad About Marie – Her breeding suggests she will like the grass as her Dam has 5 winners from 7 starters and 1 Turf winner and she has a high % winning trainer who wins 20% of the races in the 2nd route race he has a horse run in.
Alternate:
5 – Daisy Flyer
$.50 Pick 4: 1,3,7/2,3,6,12/4,5/1,5,7,8 – Cost $48.00
Race 8
12 – Outadore – He has finished in the money in eight out of his last ten starts, winning six of the starts, drops in class today and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
6 – Bound for Nowhere – He won his last race at Churchill Downs and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
2 – Implementation – He is one for one at Kentucky Downs, and one for one at today’s distance and he has high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
3 – Anaconda – He has one start at Saratoga and won that race, trained by Michael Maker and ridden by Irad Ortiz, Jr.
Alternate:
10 – American Rascal
7 – Wake Surf
Race 9-Female
5 – Sister Lou Ann – She has one win out of two starts at Saratoga, should improve while returning to Turf and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
4 – Papilio – Her best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie) and she has high % winning trainer and jockey.
8 – Anatolian – She has finished in the money in four out of her last five starts, winning two of the starts, her best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie) and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
6 – Olivia Maralda – She finished 7th in her last race after plenty of trouble, finishing 2nd in the previous G1 race and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Race 10-Female
1 – Mo Chat – She finished 3rd in her last race and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
7 – Appellate – She had a poor finish in her last race after stumbling at the start, is trained by Todd Pletcher and is ridden by Irad Ortiz.
8 – Adrasteia – She drops in class today and he has a bullet 4F workout on Aug-24.
Longshot:
5 – Public Assembly – She has the highest last race speed rating (tie), her best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie), she has a high % winning trainer who wins 28% the 2nd time he uses Lasix with a horse he trains and she has a high % winning jockey.
Best Bet of the Day at PARX Racing – 5th Race – #7 – Better Bet
Rich’s Picks:
Race 1: 1 Mile – Bias: Stalkers, 13% w2w – PP: Inside Out Edge
4 – LOOK TO THE CROSS – improve off debut is what’s needed, a pair of works since means more fit
9 – RAG TREE – 2nd by a length last out – beating top pick – same race = most likely winner
6 – ANEGADA – another that any improvement off the debut, especially at the start – and he’s got a strong chance
8 – GALLO DE FUEGO – just needs to come out of the gates cleaner, the late legs are there
Race 2: 7 Furlongs – Bias: Stalkers, 1/8 w2w – PP: Strong Rail, 2-7 Discounted, 8+ Bonus
4 – CITY OF OSCARS – funky trip in debut – cleaner run today and the most likely winner
10 – WARHEART – second race improvement is all that’s needed
6 – CLASSIC SENSATION – yet another that typical 2nd race improvement is a threat to the winners’ circle – Irad riding could help
2 – THE FED’S PLOT – bets of the 1st timers, IMV
Race 3: 1 ½ Miles – Bias: 2 races, 1 w2w the other co-pilot – PP: 1 from 4-7, the other 8+
5 – SWORE – 1 for 1 at KD – easy MSW at the distance
7 – YELLOW BRICK – lone turf run was his longest race at 1 1/8 – missed by a head closing – today’s distance might suit him
1 – MY BOY TONY – missed by a head the lone time at the distance – first up a bit spotty
6 – WRITE OFF JERRY – a pair of 2nds in his two turf races – appears to like the surface and getting better
Race 4: 1 Mile – Bias: Stalkers, 13% w2w – PP: Inside Out Edge
5 – PALM TREE – 1 for 1 at KD – catches first Lasix and most upside IMO
11 – LIPS SAY BLISS – first on grass, but off track dirt record and breeding suggests no problem
1 – INTO IT – most consistent turf performer of late – usually a strong effort fresh
12 – DECANTED – 2nd up is the same at the last – maybe and ITM finish or boom – winner
Race 5: 1 ½ Miles – Bias: 2 races, 1 w2w the other co-pilot – PP: 1 from 4-7, the other 8+
6 – CAMP HOPE – drops from a NGSTK race and has the most upside
9 – IDRATHERBEBLESSED – speed seems to be the way – good shot to be pilot or co pilot
3 – CALL ME HARRY – a repat of his last race – tends to pair strong runs – better ATB with a work since
13 – TIDE OF THE SEA – another with a lot of back class – has a win at KD in two tries
Race 6: 1 5/16 Miles – Bias: Closers, 2/9 w2w – PP: Strong Rail, 2/3 Dinged Hard, 4+ a little better than fair
2 – MOONLIGHT GAMBLER – runs well fresh – has a 2nd at KD – nice prep work off TLRSP#
3 – HEART SPIN – making the 3rd start in a row for the 1st time – finally healthy and dynamite work between races
1 – CHILLED – gets the hot rail – 1st trip on grass – if she can handle it – as much upside as any
8 – QUEEN REGENT – tough call over the 4 – I think she will get over bet – if this was on AW – absolutely – turf runs in England have been mediocre vs mediocre fields
Race 7: 1 Mile – Bias: Stalkers, 13% w2w – PP: Inside Out Edge
1 – JEWELED CITY – 2nd race improvement and the rest are running for 2nd
3 – DERRY GIRL – first turf try was good enough to score here – Chris P angle
7 – POEMA – rallied late in debut at 7 1/2f – might have graduated if it was at a mile like today
9 – SARATOGA EMPRESS – first timer with breeding so much better than the rest – you have to consider
11 – CAT PAYS THE TOLL –
2 – MOON OVER CHOCTAW –
Race 8: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed, 11/33 w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2/3 Discount, 4-7 Small Discount, 8+ Small Bonus
12 – OUTADORE – a horse for the KD course 3/2-0-1 – rare 3rd up
2 – IMPLEMENTATION – 1 for 1 at KD – lone grass win at the distance – clearing the 1 is the concern
6 – BOUND FOR NOWHERE – won his lone race at KD and this old timer tends to come off the bench hot
1 – FOXTROTANNA – enough early speed to take advantage of the rail bonus
Race 9: 1 Mile 70 Yards – Bias: 2 Races, Closers, 0 w2w – PP: Both from 4-7
8 – ANATOLIAN – most of her turf tries would do
4 – PAPILIO – solid runner fresh off the sidelines like today
5 – SISTER LOU ANN – 3rd off a layoff – toss last on slop – won his last KD race with ease at the distance
6 – OLIVIA MARALDA – first two races in the US -yes – that last one? Bumped – not sure it’s the reason for a poor performance – bounce back coming
Race10: 1 5/16 Miles – Bias: Closers, 2/9 w2w – PP: Strong Rail, 2/3 Dinged Hard, 4+ a little better than fair
5 – PUBLIC ASSEMBLY – build off of 2nd career start and first turf race is all that is needed
1 – MO CHAT – any second race improvement – debuted at PID – step up for sure, rail bonus and strong turf breeding
9 – BEAUTIFUL PHARAOH – those AMERICAN PHARAOH horses love grass – it showed in last as she tied for the TLSRP# in her first try on grass – improve from there and lookout
10 – RACONTEUSE – any of his last 4 grass goes would be good enough for the W
