Kentucky Downs Full Card Tips, Analysis and Suggested Wagers
$100 Challenge – Suggested Wagers for Kentucky Downs on a $100 Budget
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: Delaware Park
Kentucky Downs Picks and Comments
Charming Charles’ Choices
1. 5,10,11,4
2. 3,12,2,6
3. 4,1,2,7
4. 4,5,6,8
5. 2,5,6,8
6. 12,8,9,4
7. 2,7,4,11
8. 14,10,4,5
9. 5,9,1,7
10. 1,3,5,11
Plays
Race 1
5 – Bizzee Channel – 2nd up after layoff, strange effort last out, need race for the new trainer.
4 – Race Craft – good works, coming in off layoff, get Irad.
2 – Stat – speed to take them all the way, trainer doing well at KD
Race 2
8 – Princely – just missed on the dirt at 1 mile; the only turf race was big money allowance at 1 mile 3/8; since adding blinkers, this is a different horse.
7 – Humor Me Now – good works, issues in the last race, first turf race here, Asmussen/Rosario.
9 – Three On The Tree – After issues in the last race, did ok and DQ in that race. He has won at this level before at HOU. Level?
Race 3
2 – Lindy – import from France facing the top company (Group 1), race second in Group 1 at Longchamp to the best three-year-old filly in France; Good works, the one to beat and won on good going.
4 – Poca Mucha – moved in class, but scratches changed this race. Ran well in the last two races (even with a head toss) and has the form to run well here.
1 – Delight – issues in last in big field, should not have this issue today with a short field. A grade 2 winner could take this field wire to wire or hold on for a placing.
Race 4
4 – Spirit Maker – claimed for $50k for this race, ran second last out, good works, and Irad gets the ride.
3 – Miranda Rights – hasn’t won on the turf yet but has placed in three out of four races on the turf. Has raced at KD before.
7 – He’s Got Swagger – moves back to the turf after issues in last start, another non-winner on the turf but has three placings from 5 starts.
Race 5
5 – Palm Tree – first start on dirt, showed speed, and ran third, bred for turf and is owned by Godolphin. Looks good here.
3 – Tango Yankee – adds blinkers after awful debut, slow at the start in the last race, works good, and Maker/Irad.
8 – Drewmania – excellent works at EVD; breeding suggests turf, so why not take a chance with Jon Court onboard.
Race 6
9 – Last Leaf – This is the first time Lasix has been run well in graded stakes races. This is a drop in class for her, and she’s won twice on the turf with six starts.
4 – Oeuvre – won minor stakes last out at HAW at this distance, has speed, and has a good turf record of 8 starts, four wins, and two thirds. Has seen the backend of Caravel in the past.
12 – Twirled – will show speed or sit right behind, add distance will help.
Race 7
11 – Jungle Cat – oldest mare in the race, issues last out, adds blinkers today, big price, but has done well on turf in the past (2021).
4 – Lady Claypoole – adds blinkers and Lasix, better last out at CNL; UK races are average and didn’t show much. Chance, but not sure.
3 – Blame the Stars – better late in his only race, works look ok, and has the breeding for a placing.
Race 8
5 – Hidden Path – maiden and allowance winner, ran in 2 stakes races and showed nothing, drops back to a much better spot for the win.
14 – Chasing the Crown – The last two races have been interesting; both ran second, but one from way back and the other closer to the lead. Draw in off the AE list, and he will be the favorite.
10 – Beuys – just missed last out, adds blinkers, and should get the job done today for a placing.
Race 9
5 – Viareggio – OK workouts coming into this race, ran ok (one win) in all US starts Group 3 winner at the Curragh. If ready, she should win.
6 – Kate’s Kingdom – ran well last out, appeared to check, layoff coming into race with average works but has won before off layoff.
9 – Candy Light – moved too early in the last race and ran 4th. Ok, works coming off the layoff; she should be full of run late in the race.
Race 10
3 – Judgement – first race, hopped at the start and then got rolling when it was too late. He has a better post position and should get a better trip.
5 – You’re Kitten Me – add blinkers today; lacked room in the last race; the turf races have been okay. Add Irad, and he may push his way forward.
8 – Foreseen – The first start on the dirt at 7F was interesting because he was on the wrong lead on the way to the wire—the time between races and useful works. Breeding is turf.
Rich’s Ranks
Race 1: 1 Mile – Bias: Stalkers – w2w 8% – PP: None from Rail, 2/3 a Little Bonus, 4-7 Best, 8+ Big Ding
5 – BIZZEE CHANNEL – KD 4/0-2-1, likely better in 2nd up and was better ATB in last, tr Larry Rivelli winner 5/10 in 2nd race with a horse that changes barns
7 – CLEAR FOR ACTION – got to have a bomb, going with this one, could be lone E horse, has a win in 2 at KD and loves the distance 10/5-1-2
3 – PARKLAND – won last two with some R&R, distance 5/3-1-0
10 – PINE KNOLL – probably has the most back class, dropping in class, really good works leading to 1st race since late July
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Trifecta 3,5,7/2,3,5,7,10/3,5,7
Race 2: 1 Mile – Bias: Stalkers – w2w 8% – PP: None from Rail, 2/3 a Little Bonus, 4-7 Best, 8+ Big Ding
3 – SHANKAR – five of five ITM since debuting on dirt -easily could have won all 5
2 – THETHRILLOFVICTORY – 4SP# increases in a row – TLRSP# and resume says he’ll be better in 2nd op
8 – PRINCELY – 3SP# increases, better 1 mile time by about a second – 3rd up – we’ll see
10 – LAZARUS – this is the longshot, nice work on July 29th – good turf breeding
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Trifecta: 2,3,8/2,3,5,8,10/2,3,8
Race 3: 1 Mile – Bias: Stalkers – w2w 8% – PP: None from Rail, 2/3 a Little Bonus, 4-7 Best, 8+ Big Ding
2 – LINDY – ran competitively in French group level races, runs well off the bench and the US works, especially the last one says she is ready, 1st Lasix helps too
1 – DELIGHT – drops from a grade 2, last was better than it looks with quicker fractions
4 – POCA MUCHA – better 2/4 pace#s, consistent performer
7 – DO YOU LOVE ME – if she can get to the lead on comfortable fraction in short field
Race 4: 1 Mile – Bias: Stalkers – w2w 8% – PP: None from Rail, 2/3 a Little Bonus, 4-7 Best, 8+ Big Ding
3 – MIRANDA RIGHTS – has a 2nd in lone KD trip, runs well fresh, 16f works since last and most recent work was sparkling
4 – SPIRIT MAKER – lone PC horse, 1st of the claim for tr Peter Miller, 21% v 15% overall – alpha
10 – BABA VOSS – got better in last two following debut, strong turf breeding and bullet work on September 2nd
13 – REAL FAST – won debut with ease with strong late pace, 16f of good works since
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Trifecta: 3,4,10/3,4,9,10,13/3,4,10
Race 5: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Stalkers, 27% w2w – PP: Rail Fair, 2/3 Discount, 4+ a Little Better than Par
7 – COMMITTEE OF ONE – TLRSP# and Chris P angle – sharp work on Aug 9 and then maintenance
1 – ACT OF MUTINY – fairly strong debut – two nice works since
11 – RUNAWAY JOKE – the flyer pick, bullet and go work with some of the best turf pedigree
2 – DEEP STRIKE – well bet in debut at $2.20 favorite, top turf pedigree
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Trifecta: 1,7,11/1,2,6,7,11/1,7,11
Race 6: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Stalkers, 27% w2w – PP: Rail Fair, 2/3 Discount, 4+ a Little Better than Par
4 – OEUVRE – 1 race at KD, OTM but best sp#, TLRSP# – two bullet works since – turf 8/4-0-2
12 – TWIRLED – KD 1/0-1-0, solid turf breeding for what’s left after scratches
9 – LAST LEAF – consistent performer, could see uptick in race with first Lasix
8 – SOUPER MUNNINGS – drops from a 200K NGSTK, bullet work since
Race 7: 1 5/16 Miles – Bias: 4 Races – Closers, 1 w2w – PP: 2 from Rail, the other 2 winners 4+
4 – LADY CLAYPOOLE – +15 top total pace, +22 LP and won’t be too far from the pace with 1st Lasix
7 – BOLTORO – 3rd start after a layoff, 2nd by a nose in lone KD trip
10 – SOUTHAMPTON DOCK – coming off of her best race and has a bullet work since
2 – SRI LANKA – been close to graduating a few times already
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Pick 4: 4,7/8,10,14,15/5,7,8/1,2,3,10
Race 8: 7 Furlongs – Bias: 4 Races – Tactical Speed, 1 w2w – PP: 1 from 2/3, 1 from 4-7, 2 from 8+
8 – AXTHELM – 1 for 1 at KD coming off the bench like today, good works getting ready for 1st race since March
14 – CHASING THE CROWN – ITM 7/8 on grass, solid race after solid race, high floor low ceiling
10 – BEUYS – never made it two starts in a row without a layoff, either going to improve or maybe regress badly – don’t think there will be a middle ground
15 – SOLIDIFY – +6 top total pace and SIM Favorite – we’ll take him as our price play
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Trifecta: 8,10,14/4,8,10,14,15/4,8,10
Race 9: 1Mile 70 Yards – Bias: 1 Race won from way back, PP 4-7
5 – VIAREGGIO – drops from a pair of graded stakes races – nice bullet work on Sep 2
7 – FOR THE FLAG – going to try and be out front, fraction will be everything
8 – SISTER LOU ANN – only horse with KD experience, usually tries to go forward, but showed huge LP potential in last, maybe something new coming today
1 – JUBILEE BRIDGE – all or nothing in grass 6/3-0-0, a chance to deliver more in 2nd up
Suggested Wager: $1 Double: 5/1,2,3,5,6,10,11
Race 10: 1 Mile – Bias: Stalkers – w2w 8% – PP: None from Rail, 2/3 a Little Bonus, 4-7 Best, 8+ Big Ding
3 – JUDGEMENT – off to a bad start in debut and still rallied nicely, looking for a cleaner trip her
1 – YATTA – money burner as beaten favorite in both starts, there must be something Tlyer G likes to stay on
2 – I’M A MESS – becoming a big fan of strong back workouts followed by maintenance works and then debut
10 – JOKE MASTER – 1st route and displayed some closing interest in her first grass go
