Saturday March 25th will be a big one for racing all over the world. In the United States, we are highlighted by the Louisiana Derby (Gr.2) and Fair Grounds Oaks (Gr.2) and internationally is the Dubai World Cup card. In this article, I’ll be reviewing the Louisiana Derby and Fair Grounds Oaks.
Drawing a twelve-horse field was the $1m Louisiana Derby. Run at 1 3/16 miles it is the longest Kentucky Derby prep race in the USA, and is the same distance as the second jewel of the triple crown, the Preakness Stakes (Gr.1) and is only a sixteenth of a mile shorter than the Kentucky Derby (Gr.1)
Last year, Epicenter won the race en route to a pair of unlucky runner up finishes in both the Kentucky Derby (Gr.1) and Preakness Stakes (Gr.1) before winning the Jim Dandy (Gr.2) and Travers (Gr.1) which would be the last race he ever finished, being pulled up on the backstretch with a condylar fracture. Epicenter did enough to clinch the three-year-old championship over Taiba and Cyberknife to the joy of many, including myself who holds Epicenter a personal all-time favorite horse.
This year, we have a strong field with multiple graded stakes winners including Instant Coffee who is coming in off two straight graded victories in the Kentucky Jockey Club (Gr.2) and Lecomte (Gr.3) over other top tier three-year-olds. We also have Curly Jack who exits a frustrating eighth place effort in a fourteen horse Risen Star (Gr.2) but has won and placed in stakes like his win in the the Iroquois (Gr.3) as well as runner up efforts in both the listed Ellis Park Juvenile and the Kentucky Jockey Club (Gr.2) behind Instant Coffee.
Sun Thunder will enter the Louisiana Derby with four races and only one win but was a promising fourth in the Southwest (Gr.3) behind the likes of Arabian Knight and Red Route One. Sun Thunder enters off of a second-place finish in the fourteen horse Risen Star (Gr.2) as he came up the rail but was outkicked by Angel Of Empire who won by about a length. Joel Rosario will ride Steve Asmussen trained Disarm, who was third on debut behind two nice horses in Mo Strike, winner of the Sanford (Gr.3) and Summonyourcourage. Disarm came back to romp at Saratoga but then received six months off before running second in an allowance at Oaklawn Park behind Two Eagles River, who is a sneaky three-year-old appearing in the past performances of many three-year-old stakes winners.
Kingsbarns enters off of his second win in as many career starts for Todd Pletcher. On debut, he was ridden to victory by Luis Saez in January going a mile at Gulfstream Park. Starting slowly, he took to the rail and had to check once or twice on the backstretch, taking a lot of dirt and trouble on the backstretch and even more when he found no room to angle out until the top of the stretch, and when he did, a horse on his outside bumped him forcefully and caused him to drop back onto the rail before splitting rivals and going away to win by two lengths.
He came back in an Allowance race at Tampa under Antonio Gallardo to start slowly, settle nicely, pounce on the turn, and open up late to win by just under eight lengths. Third in that race was stablemate Cuvier who won his debut just a few races earlier than Kingsbarns won his debut. Kingsbarns has now won at a mile, and at a mile and forty yards as he enters the 1 3/16 miles Louisiana Derby. He lacks experience but he makes up for it in his outstanding physical and sharp mind as well as his ability to handle adversity and traffic.
On Saturday, he’ll be ridden by Flavien Prat for the first time as Luis Saez chooses Instant Coffee. A live longshot is Single Ruler, in six starts he only has one win and one third but his last race was very encouraging. If you watched the Risen Star and/ or read my article about it after the race, you know why. He sat towards the rear of the pack early and closed late to run fifth at long odds. It could be helped by the pace meltdown, but he came from well back and was flying late in the race, look for him to sit a little closer with some more distance.
Rounding out the Louisiana Derby field is Shopper’s Revenge, Cagliostro, Tapit’s Conquest, Dennington, Jace’s Road and Baseline Beater.
Next up is the Fair Grounds Oaks (Gr.2) which was won by two-year-old champion Echo Zulu, who would go on to finish fourth in the Kentucky Oaks (Gr.1) but win the Dogwood (Gr.3) and finish second in the Breeders Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (Gr.1) to Goodnight Olive.
This year, we have only five runners. On the rail is Southlawn who exits a career best race winning by eight lengths in her first time at Fair Grounds. Going a mile and a sixteenth in a $50k Allowance Optional Claimer, she stalked early but took command not long after the first quarter mile and never looked back. Expect her to blast out of the gate under leading rider Reylu Guttierez down towards the rail.
In post two is the New Mexican arrival Christian d’Oro. The Steve Asmussen trained daughter of Bolt D’Oro has two wins and one second in four career starts but manages to be the longest shot in the field. Why? Well, she is coming in from New Mexico. She ran second on debut at Zia Park and second time out won at the same track, then, she graduated to Sunland Park where she won the Borderplex Stakes by half a length leading all the way in a five-horse field. Last out, she finished fourth in the Island Fashion Stakes also at Sunland Park. She came up empty there after stalking early and she finished fourth in a five-horse field. Look for Joel Rosario to gun this filly out of the gate and contest the early lead.
In post three is the 8/5 favorite Pretty Mischievous. The daughter of Into Mischief holds four wins in five starts and a third-place effort in her only loss. She won on debut at Churchill Downs and then won again there in an Allowance before trying graded company at Churchill Downs in the Golden Rod (Gr.2) where she ran into one of the big fish. She finished a distant third while Hoosier Philly decimated the field under a hand ride. Pretty Mischievous came back at Fair Grounds to capture the Untapable Stakes and then last out turn the tables on Hoosier Philly in an impressive win, whilst the unbeaten Hoosier Philly was distraught with one stumble leaving her last out of the gate, she was never a threat. Expect Brian Hernandez Jr. to take a look and see approach out of the gate but likely sit just off the leaders in fourth early.
Post four is Brad Cox trained The Alys Look. Named for Ike Thrash’s granddaughter, Alys, this filly doesn’t have much of a pedigree being by Connect out of a Harlan’s Holiday mare. She holds two wins, one second and one third in five career starts, she finished third on debut at Keeneland in October before a seventh-place finish at Churchill Downs just 18 days later. From there, she was given some time off and broke her maiden at third asking at the Fair Grounds on December first before going on a roll, finishing second in the Untapable Stakes to Pretty Mischievous she won the Silverbulletday Stakes last out springing the upset over Chop Chop to win by a length, with fourteen lengths behind Chop Chop and Hayunevano in third. She comes in off that career best effort, and she’ll surely need another big effort to beat this short but salty field. Expect Luis Saez to ask this filly for some early speed.
On the far outside is Hoosier Philly, the Tom Amoss trained and Edgar Morales ridden gray daughter of Into Mischief, has three wins and one third in four starts. She started her career with a debut win at Churchill Downs, stalking early and going away late to win by two lengths. Then, she made her stakes debut in the Rags To Riches Stakes once again, stalking early and going away late, this time winning by 7 ½ lengths. Then, she went into graded stakes action when winning the Golden Rod (Gr.2) staking and then drawing away hand ridden to win by five big lengths.
The even more impressive part of that race is who she beat. Knockyoursocksoff was second, the same filly who just beat two-year-old filly champion Wonder Wheel and at the time unbeaten sister to Malathaat, Julia Shining. Third there was Pretty Mischievous who is favored over Hoosier Philly here. But then, a disastrous stumbling start left Hoosier Philly last and in traffic at the back of the back through a very slow pace in the Rachel Alexandra (Gr.2) and flattened out late to finish third, suffering her first defeat after making a big run mid race. Expect her to try to stalk early as well.
The pace in this race is shaping up to be either very fast or very slow, with each horse having good early speed and wanting to be on or near the lead. We could have a situation where it is very fast as everyone tries for the lead and whoever sits back could win, or every jockey will go in with the same idea of sitting back out of the gate and seeing what everyone else does and so then everybody is scared to go to the lead and get pressed or get stalked around the track.
Both races shape up very interestingly and there will be review articles out in the week following the races. I don’t have a Louisiana Derby pick yet but will surely say who it is on twitter when I have one. As for the Fair Grounds Oaks, Hoosier Philly is my pick to overcome her first defeat and running at what’s probably not her favorite track. I think she’ll break well this time and she can stalk if the pace is fast, but I think if it’s slow early, Edgar Morales won’t be scared to send his filly to the lead.
