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Melbourne Cup Picks 2023

22 to 1 Tom’s Melbourne Cup Selections and Analysis

Melbourne Cup – Tuesday, November 7th

5 – Vauban – Barrier 3

  • The perfect inside draws for one of Ryan Moore’s rail riding runs off his victory in the BC Turf.
  • The distance isn’t an issue, nor is the track condition.
  • Nice win at Ascot at 2816m in Group 3
  • Last 10 races, he has 5 wins, 3 seconds, and one third at distances of 2200m to 3400m.
  • A Negative is moving from hurdles just three months ago.

 

15 – Lastotchka – Barrier 21

  • She’s a small horse who won at ParisLongchamp at 3100m last September in Group 3.
  • In her last ten races, she has four wins, 2 seconds 1 third, with wins at distances from 1800m to 3100m
  • The going could be an issue; she has preferred softer going in the past.
  • She’s a nice price, and being a filly, she gets the weight off.

 

20 – More Felons – Barrier 24

  • He ran well late last out a Geelong at 2400m, made up ground and first race in Australia.
  • Chris Waller-trained import who hasn’t won the big races yet.
  • Last 10 races, 3 wins and 2 seconds with a range of wins from 1600m to 3400m.
  • The barrier is an issue, and will being wide early help or hurt?
  • Take him at a price for a placing.

 

4 – Breakup – Barrier 18

  • Japanese starter who has tons of speed and could be leading them all the way around.
  • His last start, first up, was in the Caulfield Cup at 2400m, he had one pace and was a good overall run.
  • He wins have come at 2200m to 2500m so this will see if he can stay the 3000m
  • He’s better second up off a layoff – 6 starts, 3 wins, 1 second, 1 third.
  • He ran 4th in the Tenno Sho last year.
  • Barrier position doesn’t do him any favors so some early speed and racing luck will be needed to have a chance.

 

 

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