22 to 1 Tom’s Melbourne Cup Selections and Analysis
Melbourne Cup – Tuesday, November 7th
5 – Vauban – Barrier 3
- The perfect inside draws for one of Ryan Moore’s rail riding runs off his victory in the BC Turf.
- The distance isn’t an issue, nor is the track condition.
- Nice win at Ascot at 2816m in Group 3
- Last 10 races, he has 5 wins, 3 seconds, and one third at distances of 2200m to 3400m.
- A Negative is moving from hurdles just three months ago.
15 – Lastotchka – Barrier 21
- She’s a small horse who won at ParisLongchamp at 3100m last September in Group 3.
- In her last ten races, she has four wins, 2 seconds 1 third, with wins at distances from 1800m to 3100m
- The going could be an issue; she has preferred softer going in the past.
- She’s a nice price, and being a filly, she gets the weight off.
20 – More Felons – Barrier 24
- He ran well late last out a Geelong at 2400m, made up ground and first race in Australia.
- Chris Waller-trained import who hasn’t won the big races yet.
- Last 10 races, 3 wins and 2 seconds with a range of wins from 1600m to 3400m.
- The barrier is an issue, and will being wide early help or hurt?
- Take him at a price for a placing.
4 – Breakup – Barrier 18
- Japanese starter who has tons of speed and could be leading them all the way around.
- His last start, first up, was in the Caulfield Cup at 2400m, he had one pace and was a good overall run.
- He wins have come at 2200m to 2500m so this will see if he can stay the 3000m
- He’s better second up off a layoff – 6 starts, 3 wins, 1 second, 1 third.
- He ran 4th in the Tenno Sho last year.
- Barrier position doesn’t do him any favors so some early speed and racing luck will be needed to have a chance.
