Horse Racing Picks and Analysis
It’s been a while, but foreign Friday is back and so is Hurricane Lane at Newbury Racecourse. That’s where Tom and Rich will make their picks.
Newbury Racecourse (Free Newbury Past Performances)
Race 1: Finest Surprise Stakes
Race 2: The Fred Darling Stakes
Race 3: Watership Down Stud Too Darn Hot Greenham Stakes
Race 4: Spring Cup Handicap
Race 7: Millennium Millionaire Handicap
Newbury Tips and Comments
22 to 1 Tom’s Tips
Race 1 – 1:30
Dubai Duty-Free Finest Surprise Stakes (Registered As The John Porter Stakes) (Group 3) Cl1 (4yo+) 1m4f
4 – Hurricane Lane – Draw 6
Two races in 2022, a third at Royal Ascot, and a complete bust in the last race as a 4/5 favorite. The winner of that race won the Arc.
Place his return in a group 3 race as a 5yo and see if he still wants to run.
His record is ten starts, six wins, and two placings.
He’s won on the soft going.
If he is ready, he’s the one to beat, but I have my questions are we going to see the old Hurricane Lane, or did maturity do the trick?
In the early entries, Yibir was also put into this race but they decided to run Hurricane Lane, and they may say something too.
8 – Surry Mist – Draw 5
My longshot play is this horse because he ran a race this year and appears to have been short on fitness because he didn’t finish. This race was a group 3 at St. Cloud.
In his last two races last year, he won in a listed race at Deauville and a class 3 race at Windsor.
He may not be at the level of some of the other horses in this race, but he is 4yo and coming to form at the right time, where some of them will need a race before their best.
7 – Mojo Star – Draw 3
He hasn’t raced since June of 2022 when he ran into Kyprios in his first attempt running 20F. He ran second to the best distance horse in Europe.
This is a horse with a strange record; his only a maiden winner but has placed in some big races like the Epsom Derby.
He has five placings from 8 starts.
He only ran two races out of the money: the Irish Derby and the Arc.
I think the distance may be too short for him but
Because of his ability to get in the money but not win, I can’t leave him off my ticket.
Race 2 – 2:05
Dubai Duty-Free Stakes (Registered As The Fred Darling Stakes) (Group 3) Cl1 (3yo) 7f
7 – Magical Sunset – Draw 2
A winner of her last two races, one at Newbury going 7F on the heavy going, she won by five lengths and a 6F win at Leicester.
She takes a step up in class but is bred to be a sprinter but they have talked the mile too.
She’s won on the good to firm and soft heavy going.
If she’s ready, I think she’s the one to beat.
1 – Bridestones – Draw 8
The comment on her only races was “impressive” at the 8F race on the soft going at Yarmouth.
The breeding says she’s a miler, and this may be no more a prep for something bigger, but the Gosden team generally knows what they are doing and she will go off the favorite.
3 – Embrace – Draw 13
She’s run two races on the all-weather and won one of them easily.
The days between these races were 24 days, and the first race comment was never near to challenge.
The interesting part here is the odds. The debut, she was 20-1. The next race, she was the favorite at 11/4. So, watch the odds on this one.
Race 3 – 2:40
Watership Down Stud Too Darn Hot Greenham Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 (3yo) 7f
7 – Streets of Gold – Draw 8
Even though he’s run against the lesser company, this one is undefeated, with five starts and five wins.
In the last one at York, he drew post 13 and won by ½ length at 7F.
He has speed and could even get the mile, but this distance suits him to start his 3yo career.
In one race, he started slow and still won.
This is the one for me with the record and today’s distance and at 12-1, you may never see a price like that again.
11 – Zoology – Draw 3
He has the benefit of a start this season, winning by a neck at the novice level. This race was at 7F (turn) on the all-weather.
He won his first race at Yarmouth on the good to soft going at 6F.
They tried group 1 company next out, and he wasn’t close.
With a race, this is a good spot to get a placing.
1 – Chaldean – Draw 7
While my top choice is undefeated, this horse started his career with a lost but hasn’t lost since, including group 1, 2, and 3 races, all at 7F.
Could he be a 7F specialist, or can he get more distance?
He’s the favorite, and if ready to go, he will be very tough in here but change from 2yo to 3yo. You never really know until they race.
Race 4 – 3:15
Betgoodwin Spring Cup Handicap Cl2 (4yo+) 1m
3 – Brunch – Draw 8
The season’s first race was at Doncaster, ran second by four lengths on the heavy going at 8F.
He’s dropping from a listed race to class 2 level, which may be good enough to win here.
He is a listed race winner, and the jockey changed to William Buick tells me he will win and needs a good trip.
6 – Alrehb – Draw 7
A winner of his last two races on the all-weather at 8F and 8.5F.
He is a much better all-weather runner than flat races but has finished in the money three times.
In form but
5 – Dawn Of Liberation – Draw 10
He hasn’t run since July 2022 in a listed race at Newmarket and did nothing.
He won off a layoff last year in a class 5 race at Doncaster.
He won at an 8F but in this race, I see him more as a in the money runner.
Race 7 – 4:55
1m2f Dubai Duty-Free Millennium Millionaire Handicap (Class 4) (4yo+ 0-85)
5 – Tuxedo Junction – Draw 12
The last two races haven’t been gems, running 6th at Doncaster and 11th at Kempton in the handicap level.
He was much better earlier in his career, with one and two seconds at the novice and maiden levels, including a second at Newbury.
Lightly raced returns at a distance he has won at before.
Take a chance at a good price.
11 – Stately Home – Draw 6
He has two races this year at Kempton, with a win at the class 5 level. He moved up to class 3 and ran an ok 5th.
He has never run at this distance, but after some of his efforts this year, try.
This level should suit, and this is a wide-open race.
7 – Chantico – Draw 15
I have two races this season on the all-weather at 10F and 11F, with a win and a 4th.
He ran 3rd in two races on the turf at the novice and maiden levels.
This is a really interesting horse; you should get a good price.
The draw sucks
Rich’s Ranks
Race 1: Finest Surprise Stakes – 8:30 am
4 – Hurricane Lane – class of the field, only concern is 1st up
1 – Max Vega – horse for the course 5/2-2-0 – soft/heavy record solid
5 – Israr – 1st up record 2 wins and a third, Turf 8/3-1-3
8 – Surrey Mist – tough call over the 7 – but Newbury numbers are a little better, so we’ll take the higher odds
Race 2: The Fred Darling Stakes – 9:05 am
13 – Swingalong – G2 winner – lone soft race was 6 length win
1 – Bridestones – Godolphin horse – won debut with powerful late run, will answer how good she is here
7 – Magical Sunset – all or nothing horse 5/3-0-0
10 – Remarquee – scored the maiden win on a soft track with a strong class rating
Race 3: Watership Down Stud Too Darn Hot Greenham Stakes – 9:40 am
6 – Knight – undefeated in two, one on soft one on heavy – both 7f – G3 win in last at Newbury
1 – Chaldean – winner 4/4 at the distance – lone miss was debut – concerned he might not be at his best first up – going to be a big favorite as a G1 winner
2 – Charyn – last race of 22 was a G2 win on lone soft trip in 4 races, also won debut – suggests he runs well fresh
8 – Theoryofeverything – won debut with ease on a soft surface, from the back to the front by 6 in a 13 horse field at 3.33 to 1 odds
Race 4: Spring Cup Handicap – 10:15 am
6 – Alrehb – would prefer on AW – but is a pair of necks away from winning 4/5
12 – Lattam – unbeaten in two at the distance – all or nothing 5/3-0-0 – one good one on soft and one bad
5 – Dawn of Liberation – 2 of 3 runs at a mile fit – won last 1st up – footing is the concern
4 – Saga – first time Gelded – runs well fresh – can he handle the soft is the question again
Race 7: Millennium Millionaire Handicap – 11:55 am
Good luck with this one – to me – it looks like it’s up for grabs.
15 – Mustazeed – two of soft runs were solid – usually well bet
6 – Myristica – right distance for this mare 12/3-4-3 – all others 13/1-0-1
14 – Time Interval – maybe ok fresh – did beat top pick when they met
8 – Sweet Reward – done OK at the distance and OK at the track
