Horse Racing Picks and Analysis
Back-to-back weeks for Tom and Rich and off to England they go for a British Championship Series at Newmarket and a quarter of strong races at Ascot racetracks.
Newmarket Tips
R4: SUN CHARIOT STAKES (British Championship Series)
Ascot Picks
R2: JIM BARRY CUMBERLAND LODGE STAKES
R3: JOHN GUEST RACING BENGOUGH STAKES
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: https://www.guaranteedtipsheet.com/index.aspx?afid=hrt
22 to 1 Tom’s Tips
Newmarket Picks
Race 4
Virgin Bet Sun Chariot Stakes (Group 1) (Fillies & Mares) (British Champions Series) Cl1 (3yo+) 1m
3 – Inspiral – Draw 3 – won last start at Deauville in group 1. She’s mainly raced at the 1-mile distance with successes in group 1 races against the boys. If she wins here and comes out of the race in good shape, they are talking Breeder’s Cup Turf Mile as her next start.
2 – Heredia – Draw 8 – winner of her last two races, one at Sandown in group 3 and the other at Haydock in a listed race. Both these races were at 1 mile. This is a big step for her because she’s never run in a group 1 race, but she’s in form and should make another reasonable effort.
4 – Mqse De Sevigne – Draw 7 – at winner of her last two at Deauville at 1 mile and one mile plus on the soft going. She’s run first or second in all her races this season in France. She’s in form but has only run on the good to soft going lately (ran second twice). Andre Fabre placed her in an exciting race to see if she was a miler and likes the going. Breeder’s Cup?
Ascot Tips
Race 1 – 1:50
Blue Eagle Rous Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (3yo+) 5f
4 – Nymphadora – Draw 9 – missed by a neck last out in group 3 at Newbury after some disappointing efforts but she was running against Live in the Dream and Highfield Princess in group 1 and 2 races. She succeeded early in the season in a listed race at York and Chester. Drop class helps her chances.
9 – Zudu Spirit – Draw 8 – she has been racing in France with some success, with the last win at Toulouse at 6F in May. Since that race, she has run 5 times, with the best finish being a second. Her two races have been at 5F, with a third and sixth against the listed company. Purchased and moved to the UK, she should run well here.
2 – Emaraaty Ana – Draw 2. His last two races have improved, with a second to Lezoo in the listed race and a third to Commanche Falls at York. Both these races were at 6F. He hasn’t won since 2021 but did run second last year in the Breeders Cup Turf Sprint. He will attach money in the betting, but I don’t see him winning.
Race 2 – 2:25
Jim Barry Cumberland Lodge Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 (3yo+) 1m4f
6 – Fortino – Draw 7 – a John Gosden import from Chile with his first start on the all-weather at Kempton, did what you would expect: nothing—a great run of form in Chile, with 11 starts, eight wins, and 3 seconds. Let’s see if this race is more suited to him vs. his first start.
3 – Al Qareem – Draw 4 – layoff since running in Dubai in March, came back and won at Chester by a neck. He’s a group 2 winner in France at a longer distance, but with the last race, he came back in form and ready to go. He will sit with the leaders and be up at the 2F marker.
1 – Israr – Draw 5 – ran in the same race as my top choice on the all-weather and did nothing. He beat Adayar (Derby winner) at Newmarket in a group 2 and ran his other races except the last. He will be more favored in the betting, but I think he will do no better than a placing here.
Race 3 – 3:00
John Guest Racing Bengough Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 (3yo+) 6f
6 – Vadream – Draw 5 – he won a 5F Group 3 at Newmarket in May over Live In The Dream (Breeder’s Cup bound) but has done nothing since but he has also been running in the top company of Group 2 and Group 1 races. He hasn’t raced since July, so the refresh, a drop down to a level he has won at, plus his three wins from 14 starts are at 6F—a good spot for an upset here.
2 – Garrus – Draw 10 – not much last out in group 1 at Haydock but was hampered a bit in the race’s final stages and didn’t finish. Race before at Deauville, a strong second in a group 3 that followed a second at ParisLongchamp in a group 3. He beat the favorite at Newmarket in a group 3 in April and if you toss the last because of issues, he should be running at the end. The draw is a bit of a concern.
10 – Pink Crystal – Draw 4 – won last start in a listed race restricted to fillies and mares at Ayr. She looked good coming from the back of the field. She had good runs overall this season, the last being a win. Can she get up in time for a piece? I think so, based on her current form.
Race 4 – 3:35
Howden Challenge Cup (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 (3yo+) 7f
7 – Rhoscolyn – Draw 17 – won last out at Goodwood in a class 2 handicap at 1 mile, got up by a head. In the past, he hasn’t fared well in the big money handicaps, but they are dropping in the distance, and he runs well at 7F with a record of 29 starts, six wins, two seconds, and four thirds. His won on all types of going-the-post positions is the most significant negative for me.
18 – Hickory – Draw 2 – good at 7F and ran third last out at Ascot and second at Ascot the previous time. There is a break between these two races. He’s a lightly races five years old with nine starts and three wins, 2 seconds and 1 third, but only one win on the turf. It doesn’t hurt to get William Buick along for the ride.
17 – Peale D’or – Draw 9 – won last out at Newbury, going 7F over the heavy going in a class 3 handicap. He’s raced well since July with two wins, 1 second, and one third in a mixture of class 4 to class 2 races and all these races have been at 7F. He’s found his distance and a placing make sense to me.
Rich’s Ranks
Ascot Picks
Ascot R1: BLUE EAGLE ROUS STAKES
4 – Nymphadora – seems to run well in bunches and ran a much improved race from the prior pair
9 – Zudu Spirit – 4 wins, the last two were first up like today
2 – Emaraaty Ana – likely favorite, likes the distance 8/2-2-2, but not Ascot 2/0-0-0
6 – Glamorous Breeze – nothing wrong with her last 5 races, up in class, but one of the few with decent Ascot record 3/0-1-1
Ascot R2: JIM BARRY CUMBERLAND LODGE STAKES
1 – Israr – runs well in 2nd up starts, Ascot 2/0-0-2, Distance 4/1-1-2
2 – Al Aasy – great form in last 3, may have regressed a little in last, Distance 9/4-3-0
4 – Claymore – 1 for 1 at Ascot on a good track and ran well in 2 of 3 off the bench races
7 – L’astronome – won his two 2nd up starts
Ascot R3: JOHN GUEST RACING BENGOUGH STAKES
7 – Dark Trooper – two for two at Ascot, Distance 6/4-1-0 – winner 4 in a row
10 – Pink Crystal – tends to run well in form, won her last race, and does well in 2nd up
1 – Commanche Falls – runs best on good surfaces – distance 32/12-4-3
3 – Jumby – Ascot 4/1-0-1, last two were awful – but if you look back at last 3 race cycle, first two were bad and then pow, win out of nowhere
Race 4: HOWDEN CHALLENGE CUP
5 – Quinault – Ascot 2/1-0-1, Distance 2/2-0-0, runs best on a good surface
18 – Hickory – best races on a good surface, Ascot 2/0-1-1 and distance 5/1-2-1
12 – Maywake – another that runs his best on a good surface and is coming off a strong performance
1 – Popmaster – mixed bag on a good surface, either really good or bad, Ascot 9/2-2-0
