Horse Racing Picks and Analysis
Tom and Rich span the globe, from Newmarket in England to Caulfield and Randwick in Australia for the richest turf race in the world, The Everest.
Newmarket
Race 1: EMIRATES AUTUMN STAKES
Race 2: NATIVE TRAIL’S DEWHURST STAKES
Race 3: CESAREWITCH HANDICAP
Race 4: GHAIYYATH ZETLAND STAKES
Caulfield
Race 9: CAULFIELD GUINEAS
Randwick
Race 7: THE TAB EVEREST
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: https://www.guaranteedtipsheet.com/index.aspx?afid=hrt
22 to 1 Tom’s Tips
Newmarket
Race 1 -1:25
Emirates Autumn Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 (2yo) 1m
5 – Orne – Draw 3 – won first start at Kempton on the AW at 7F by 1/2L. Good starting point. Now switch to turf at 1 mile. The trainers are John & Thady Goshen, and they generally know what they are doing and placing the horse in this race.
4 – Chief Little Rock – Draw 5 – ran second last out at the Curragh in the Group 2 race at this distance. Won his second start and ran second in his first start. All races at 1 mile. A second-stringer for sure, based on what Aiden O’Brien’s other 2-year-olds are doing but he certainly will be the favorite here. Sometimes, those second-stringers of Aiden’s show up in the Breeder’s Cup races (and win).
2 – Ancient Wisdom – Draw 1 – three races 2 wins one third. Last effort at Ascot at 7F in a listed race. He won here, he’s bred to go the distance, and it’s Buick/Appleby.
Race 2 – 2:00
Native Trail’s Dewhurst Stakes (Group 1) (No Geldings) Cl1 (2yo) 7f
3 – City Of Troy – Draw 2 – he’s won his first two starts at the big favorite and by 6.5L and 2.5L both at 7F. The favorite again, is he the top Aiden O’Brien 2yo? Maybe we will see if and how he wins on Saturday. Could he show up at the Breeder’s Cup?
2 – Array – Draw 7 – won last race at 6F at Newbury as the favorite in at Group 2 race. Won novice at Newmarket. All races at 6F so add distance today. Should get the mile and should get an ok price.
5 – Haatem – Draw 8 – ran in two Group 2 races recently and was poorly beaten in one and a little better in the other. His 7F races have been stronger efforts, with a win at Goodwood and a second to the top choice at Newmarket. Why run at 6F? He appears to want more distance, he’s a Group 2 winner, and at 66-1, why not?
Race 3 – 2:40
Club Godolphin Cesarewitch Handicap (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 (3yo+) 2m2f
7 – The Very Man – Draw 33 – ran in a big money handicap at the Curragh last out and had little left in the final furlong. His form before was good with a win at Ascot going 16F and a second at Galway going 17F. His record at 2 miles plus races is 5 starts 2 wins 1 second. Return to form here.
34 – Grand Providence – Draw 7 – won last out in class 2 handicap at Newmarket at 18F. and has run well in all her last six races with three wins two seconds and one third. Being a filly and a 3yo at that, she gets a nice weight assignment of 115 lbs., and her last race was at this distance. The bettors are giving her a chance.
10 – Jesse Evans – Draw 18 – ran fourth last out at Curragh going 17F sitting on the lead and didn’t finish. He’s run in hurdle races twice and won one and ran third in the other. At 2-mile-plus races, he has 5 starts and two seconds. It’s an interesting move to bring him to Newmarket for this race. They must have seen something at home in his works.
22 – Golden Shot – Draw 21 – has been running and doing well in lower-level races and is three for three in the middle-distance type races. Over 2 miles, had started three times and ran second twice. First time in a class 2 handicap but Sir Mark Prescott has had plenty of winners and maybe this is the right kind of race for this horse.
Race 4 – 3:15
Ghaiyyth Zetland Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 (2yo) 1m2f
5 – Meribella – Draw 1 – won easily at Sandown going 7F. Went to the lead, then was headed but came back and fought on. Pretty darn good for a 2yo. She won on good to firm.
1 – Arabian Crown – Draw 5 – three races two wins and a third. Last out in a listed race, Salisbury. Sat second and more quickly forward when asked. This was a 1-mile race. He’s won on good and soft goings.
4 – Gasper De Lemos – Draw 2 – won last at the Curragh by 3L going 7F. In his first race, he ran green throughout the race. He should continue to improve with the added distance. The win was on yielding to soft going.
Race 5 – 3:50
Earthlight Darley Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 (3yo+) 1m1f
1 – Spirit Dance – Draw 5 – he has been on a roll, winning three in a row at about this distance in handicaps and last win in a Group 3. The running was good to firm. He is now six years old and running in his best career form.
8 – Padishakh – Draw 5 – recently transferred to Roger Varian, and he was gelded since his last race in August at Deauville. The former trainer put him in races with very good 3yos, including Ace Impact and Big Rock. He won his first two races but hasn’t won since. The most interesting thing here is that the horse has never run on good to firm going.
3 – Highland Avenue – Draw 9 – last two races, he ran 10F and ran fourth in both those races. Drops back in distance, can run on the lead or from the rear.
Randwick
Race 7 THE TAB EVEREST
8 – Alcohol Free – Draw 7 – she’s my favorite up-and-down horse; she won six races in her career, including a Group 1 at Newmarket, beating Naval Crown. Then she runs some awful races, like at Randwick in her first start in Australia, bet down and lost by 8L. This race was at 1600m. Her last race was at 1200m and ran fourth. She ran okay, sitting behind the leaders, but didn’t finish. She’s won on big day races, including at Royal Ascot. She runs against the best in the UK including Mistriff, Baaeed, Poetic Flare, and Artorius. I think she’s ready to pop up for a win here and will pay a big price The owners paid over 6 million dollars for her at Tattersalls.
3 – Think About It – Draw 5 – won nicely last out at Randwick by a nose with some bumping in the race. This was a Group 2 race. He has 11 starts 10 wins 1 placing and at 1200m he is 3 for 3. His gelding will again be right with them at the end.
12 – Cylinder – Draw 4 – ran third last out in Group 1 at Rosehill at 1400m. Three horses on the finish line at the end. He won the start at Rosehill at 1200m, sitting behind the leaders. At the distance, he has three starts 2 wins 1 placing. Third up, he hasn’t won in two starts but placed in both of those races. A 3yo won this race last year.
Caulfield
Neds Caulfield Guineas (Group 1)
8 – Scentify – Draw 5 – ran third last out and didn’t lose by much. Nice run at Caulfield at 1400m in group 3. He won his first two starts and ran second in his third start. His run style and breeding all suggest that 1600m should be no problem. He will catch them in the end if there’s a fast pace.
4 – Steparty – Draw 7 – undefeated after a five-race career. Last race, he did get some breaks in the race and the jockey is credited with an excellent ride. The 1600m distance should be no issue. I also like the current price.
11 – Verdad – Draw 14 – with a two-race career, he won his maiden with a very strong run and then ran 1600m in his next start and just missed by 1/2L in Group 2 at Moone Valley. He’s by Justify, and we know what his offspring have done, and I can see him a chance to win. The draw is a bit of a concern.
Rich’s Ranks
Newmarket
Race 1: EMIRATES AUTUMN STAKES
6 – Per Contra – two easy wins, both on soft
3 – Arabic Legend – won debut with ease on soft Newmarket course, better in 2nd route
2 – Ancient Wisdom – Appleby, Buick, Godolphin – not much else needs to be said
1 – Ambiente Friendly – made easy work of the competition, in command
Race 2: NATIVE TRAIL’S DEWHURST STAKES
3 – City of Troy – first two were too easy, including G2 in last
2 – Array – is not all that far from winning his last 4 and has a G2 win at Newmarket in his last
7 – Iberian – might be unbeaten in t3 if not for a funky start in race #2
4 – Eben Shaddad – looking for a rebound in third start after regressing a little in his last
Race 3: CESAREWITCH HANDICAP
10 – Jesse Evans – it looks he is in form and the longer the better
20 – Temporize – distance isn’t a problem and Newmarket 3/1-0-2
23 – Blazeon Five – 3rd up and won last two on soft going
28 – Sheishybrid – another making her third run off the sidelines – 2nd at this track/distance in last
Race 4: GHAIYYATH ZETLAND STAKES
5 – Meribella – going to try and beat the 1-1 – won debut with solid effort at Newmarket
1 – Arabian Crown – getting better race by race
4 – Gasper De Lemos – exploded on a yielding course last out, think he likes it wet
Caulfield
Race 8: CAULFIELD GUINEAS
6 – She’s a Con – definitely a miler, 2nd up improvement likely
3 – Papillon Club – 1 mile is the right distance and hoping for a rebound performance
10 – Wishlor Lass – 3rd up all or nothing horse, did regress in only other 3rd up
Randwick
Race 7: THE TAB EVEREST
3 – Think About It – hard to argue with 8/8 on good
12 – Cylinder – very competitive at all group levels, good 7/3-3-1 – distance 3/2-1
1 – I Wish I Win – better in 2nd off the bench, 6/6 ITM distance, 7/8 Good and 1 win in 1 at Randwick
9 – In Secret – loves the distance, track and surface
