It’s one of the biggest weekends of French racing. So big, Tom and Rich give a double serving of Paris Longchamp picks including the PRIX DE L’ARC DE TRIOMPHE.
Paris Longchamp Tips
Saturday – September 30
Race 1: QATAR PRIX CHAUDENAY
Race 3: QATAR PRIX DU CADRAN
Race 6: QATAR PRIX DE ROYALLIEU
Race 7: QATAR PRIX DANIEL WILDENSTEIN
Race 8: QATAR PRIX DOLLAR
Sunday – October 1
Race 1: QATAR PRIX JEAN-LUC LAGARDERE
Race 4: QATAR PRIX DE L’ARC DE TRIOMPHE
Race 5: PRIX DE L’OPERA LONGINES
Race 6: PRIX DE L’ABBAYE DE LONGCHAMP LONGINES
Race 7: QATAR PRIX DE LA FORET
Free Paris Longchamp Picks and Comments
22 to 1 Tom’s Tips
SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 30
The track is drying out, so for a change, the going will be good or good to soft.
Race 1 – QATAR PRIX CHAUDENAY (GROUP 2) (3YO) (GRANDE COURSE) (TURF) (3YO) 1M7F
4 – Gallerist – Draw 5 – won last out at a distance has won last five races but the last was the furthest so far. The favorite without question and looks good again vs. this group.
9 – Dschingis Star – last two races have been ok with a second and fourth. These races were in a listed and group 3 races 2500m and 2800m. Ratings are good off those two races. This looks like a nice spot for him
5 – Harbour Wind – ships in from Ireland after some promising races. Last out at Leopardstown in a listed race at 2800 won nicely. Only one lost from four races and appears to be getting better.
Race 3 – QATAR PRIX DU CADRAN (GROUP 1) (4YO+) (NEW & GRANDE COURSE) (TURF) (4YO+) 2M4F
5 – Emily Dickinson – she’s run against the males and done well, they have options on where to run her, but this is the best spot for the best results, she ran a good second last out at Goodwood on the good/soft going and won at the Curragh in a group 2 on the soft going. The issue maybe distance but she’s game and tough on all goings.
4 – Trueshan – finally one one last out with three starts this season, won this race 2021 and certainly be the big favorite but the going is a big question mark, he wants softer going than he may be getting today.
5 – Run For Oscar – running ok but not winning; he will have an excellent chance to hit the board in this short field.
Race 6 – QATAR PRIX DE ROYALLIEU (GROUP 1) (3YO+ FILLIES & MARES) (GRANDE COURSE) (TURF) (3YO+) 1M6F
3 – Melo Melo – strong efforts over this course this season with 1 win and two seconds, she ran 20 days ago with a good second in group 1 over the track at 12F. She will be fighting to the end.
15 – Library – she improved with a nice run in a listed race at the Curragh, then ran a dud next out a Leopardstown, her next two races, she ran third in a group 1 and second in a group 3 at Cork. She has been involved all along and this may show her best.
11 – Thunder Roll – won last after running second or third in his four previous races. The horse is not losing by much and tries every time. Interestingly the last race was the maiden win. Joseph O’Brien trained and should be a fair price.
Race 7 – QATAR PRIX DANIEL WILDENSTEIN (GROUP 2) (3YO+) (GRANDE COURSE) (TURF) (3YO+) 1M
8 – Poker Face – won last two races, one at Deauville and the other at Pontefract with a second at Haydock. Since running poorly at Royal Ascot, this horse has found his footing and move up to a group 2 in the best form of his racing life.
3 – Fast Raj – toss last, a mess in group 1 and never in it. Won the previous two races in group 3 and listed company. He runs stinkers and then come in with a nice run. My second choice vs. this field.
1 – Witch Huner – a winner last out in group 2 at Newbury. Won at Royal Ascot and then ran a bunch of ok races but not winning efforts. Won at Ascot at 50-1 but you won’t get that prince today.
Race 8 – QATAR PRIX DOLLAR (GROUP 2) (3YO+) (GRANDE COURSE) (TURF) (3YO+) 1M2F
1 – Jack Darcy – found his best form last race at Deauville winning a group 2 race at 12.5F. He ran second to Hamish at Goodwood but his other efforts were only very average. He is finally in form and I look for him to repeat. Frankie Dettori to ride.
5 – Checkandchallenge – his been good to run fourth in too may races this season but facing good company overall. The biggest disappointment was the listed race at Ascot. Jockey change to Holly Doyle is positive to me and I am looking for a good price.
6 – Bolthole – ran second in last two races and won two races before those at the listed level. Moves up from group 3 races but in form and rarely runs a bad race.
SUNDAY, OCTOBER 1ST.
RACE 1 – QATAR PRIX JEAN-LUC LAGARDERE (GRAND CRITERIUM) P (2YO) 1.400 GR.I
11 – American Native – undefeated in his only two runs, one at York and the other at the Curragh. Winning by nice margins. My only question is one race in May then the second in September. Was this the plan all along or did we have issues? I am going with a 2yo that they are being very patience with, Wants the good to firm going.
1 – Zabiari – won last start in group 3 at ParisLongchamp bu a good 1 1/4L. Ran second to two previous starts and won his debut also at ParisLongchamp. He is undefeated at this track and hasn’t run a bad race yet. I won’t be surprised if he wins this one.
8 – Evade – won his first start at Deauville and than a fourth (of 5) and a second at this track both were group 3 races. Ok odds in all races but may be Andre Fabre is preparing for this race and beyond. Breeders Cup?
RACE 2 – QATAR PRIX MARCEL BOUSSAC – CRITERIUM DES POULICHES P (2YO) 1 mile GR.I
3 – Rose Bloom – two races, two wins one at 7F and the next at 8F. Big favorite in both races. Steps up but has been very impressive. My top choice.
9 – Opera Singer – Won last race in group 3 at the Curragh. Won his maiden at Leopardstown. The other two races were second going 7F and the first start was a nothing race except being a first start. Aiden O’Brien trainee looks to continue to improve here.
6 – Rabaltagaia – on start, big win at minor track. Moves up here but looks iike he could be something special. Ran on ths soft going but shouldn’t mind the better going here. Should be a bit of a price against this bunch.
RACE 4 – QATAR PRIX DE L’ARC DE TRIOMPHE P (3 & +) 2.400 GR.I
15 – Continuous – supplemented into this race after a strong effort in the St Leger at Doncaster winning by over 2L and it could have been more. As they have added distance to his races, he has gotten better and better. He faced the favorite in the Prix du Jockey and ran an awful race then came back at Royal Ascot with a strong effort at 12F. I don’t think Aiden O’Brien would have put this horse into this race without looking at those past two races and see he may have a top class horse. This is not his best 3yo but right now he is.
9 – Through Seven Seas – the Japanese have been trying to win this race for too many years with the best finish being second. This mare is a lightly raced, late developing horse with a good chance to make history. She was flying at the end of her last race to be beaten by a neck to the top turf horse in the world, Equinox (the track condition would have suit him but that’s not the norm in Paris at this time of year). If she runs that last efforts, she will have a chance. The workout reports from Chantilly have been very positive. May be get 8-1 or better?
7 – Hukum – a 6yo who has won 11 out of 17 races and finished off the board twice in he’s career. Top form and beat Westover last out at Ascot in July. The effort will happen but a 6yo hasn’t won this race since the 1930’s but remember that geldings are not allowed to run in this race. He has a chance.
RACE 5 – PRIX DE L’OPERA LONGINES P (3 & +) 2.000 GR.I
10 – Muskoka – won last out at Dusseldorf in group 1 by a neck. She’s won here last three races nicely, Her first start in May was a second but now is in her best form. She keeps up at the rate she’s going, she’s a top 3yo filly in this race.
6 – Jannah Rose – she run one crap race in her overall career. She’s won all the others by very short margin but she wins. Last out, a good performance at 10F in group 2 with a winning effort. I think she’s the one to beat.
5 – Rogue Millennium – found the backend of Tahiyra last out at Leopardstown. A very average effort the race before at Deauville. But won at Royal Ascot at odds of 10-1 in her third start back. She’s good enough to get a placing here.
RACE 6 – PRIX DE L’ABBAYE DE LONGCHAMP LONGINES P (2 & +) 1.000 GR.I
13 – Rogue Lighting – big step up here but a winner of three in a row with a nice effort last out at Doncaster in a listed race. He’s numbers suggest that this maybe a good race for a group win. Late developing 3yo.
19 – Highfield Princess – she run (and won) races this season but no group 1 race. She’s always running at the end. Her last race in Ireland was her worst running 5th with a troubled start. She will bounce back here and another big effort. She is heading to the Breeder’s Cup after this race, maybe.
17 – White Lavender – big effort last out at Goodwood behind Highfield Princess running second. Given a break before this race is a bit of a concern, but she has won first up and has a win over this course at this distance.
RACE 7 – QATAR PRIX DE LA FORET P (3 & +) 1.400 GR.I
6 – Topgear – after running some good races, he tossed in an average effort of this course last out. So, they drop him from 1 mile races to 7F here. Last time at this distance, he won and at 6F, 6.5F and 7F, he is undefeated. He’s run ok at 1 mile with three seconds but the winning distances are at 7F or less. Going should suit him just fine.
12 – Sauterne – big effort last out with a win in group 1 at 1 mile. Out of the money once in her career (a first start at 7F at this course) but he battles all along and has been good on both the all-weather and turf tracks. With the breakthrough last out, she could repeat with another winning effort.
1 – Kinross – won this race last year and went on to run third to Modern Games in the Breeder’s Cup turf mile. Started out the season at Royal Ascot and that was a bust but since that race, he been good with a third in a 6F race and then two wins going 7F at Goodwood and York in group 2 races. He will put in top effort here.
Rich’s Ranks
Saturday – September 30
Race 1: QATAR PRIX CHAUDENAY
9 – Dschingis Star – yet to catch a good surface, lone win came 3rd up, improvement today
4 – Gallerist – won 5 in a row, hard to argue with that – improved in both 2nd ups
5 – Harbour Wind – is just a ½ length from being undefeated in 4, appears the longer the better
7 – Double Major – just missed vs Gallerist in their last, always involved at the end
Race 3: QATAR PRIX DU CADRAN
4 – Trueshan – defending champ – goes to the front on soft fractions in field of closers
2 – Moon Wolf – fared well at Longchamp, extra distance and good footing could help
6 – Emily Dickinson – won by 5 ½ Lengths in last 1st up and has multiple good showing in group ranks
Race 6: QATAR PRIX DE ROYALLIEU
10 – Shamida – 2 for 2 at the distance, never a bad race in 5, has some versatility can run mid to back
8 – Melo Melo – Longchamp 3/1-2-0, but just a neck and ½ length from 3-0
7 – Sea Silk Road – hasn’t gone this far yet, but is a closer and probably appreciates the added runway
4 – Alpenblume – taking a bomb, hasn’t seen a firmer course yet, has 3 wins in 8 starts, but undefeated in a pair of 2nd up efforts
Race 7: QATAR PRIX DANIEL WILDENSTEIN
7 – Embesto – 3 of 4 races have been solid, with a 2nd, should sit mid-pack and attack late
5 – Poker Face – unbeaten in three at 1 mile, including last two
10 – Isaac Shelby – probably going to be one of the favorites, but deserves to be as he’s mostly handled his business in 7 group races following his debut – however, might need a rest
2 – Caracal – won three of four, something went wrong in the loss as she was sidelined for more than a year after, came back to win – concerned about regression or I’d rank higher
Race 8: QATAR PRIX DOLLAR
7 – Horizon Dore – winner 2/3 at Longchamp and 3/3 at the distance 5/7 overall
2 – Erevann – 3rd up for the 1st time, moved forward in G1 last out
6 – Bolthole – distance 9/5-2-1, won last two first up efforts and only 1 bad result in last 10
9 – American Flag – another with a solid 1st up resume, good footing might be an issue – lone run didn’t go well
Sunday – October 1
Race 1: QATAR PRIX JEAN-LUC LAGARDERE
4 – Beauvatier – unbeaten in 4, a pair at the distance and his last at Longchamp
3 – Unquestionable – Moore / O’Brien team here and not on the 5 – a tell as they say in poker
1 – Zabiari – unbeaten in a pair of Longchamp wins and both were easy
11 – Native American – two easy wins to start career, no idea how good a horse is until it loses
Race 4: QATAR PRIX DE L’ARC DE TRIOMPHE
13 – Ace Impact – undefeated in 5, until he loses…
14 – Fantastic Moon – German invader, 7/5-1-1 and 2 for 2 at the distance and usually wins back to back, won his last
4 – Simca Mille – Longchamp 4/2-2-0, distance 6/4-1-0, won 4 of last 5 first up races
11 – Mr Hollywood – another German invader, could be better in round 2 off the bench
Race 5: PRIX DE L’OPERA LONGINES
6 – Jannah Rose – 2 for 2 at Longchamp, winner 4/5 and room to be better in 2nd up
10 – Muskoka – never off the board in 6/4-2-0, but just a head and ½ length from winning 6/6
12 – Blue Rose Cen – got to love the Longchamp history 5/4-0-0, but current form not so good
8 – Excellent Truth – ITM 6/7 lifetime with distance 2/1-1-0
Race 6: PRIX DE L’ABBAYE DE LONGCHAMP LONGINES
13 – Rogue Lightning – won last 3 since shortening up, distance 4/3-0-1
4 – Coeur De Pierre – ran much last faster last out and tends to run well in bunches
19 – Highfield Princess – tough trip last out, rebounds here, distance 7/3-2-0
3 – Moss Tucker – distance 12/4-3-3, rolling right now in good form
Race 7: QATAR PRIX DE LA FORET
12 – Sauterne – sharp race last out that was 2 seconds faster than prior LCH outing
1 – Kinross – Likely favorite, win good form, but maybe not the biggest Longchamp fan?
2 – Fang – is a big Longchamp fan, 4-3-0-0 – all at 7f – today’s distance
5 – King Gold – OK off the bench, otherwise would be higher up, but LCH 6/3-0-2 and distance 7/4-1-2
