22 to 1 Tom’s Tips
Paris Longchamp – Sunday, October 2nd
Race 1
7f Qatar Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere (Grand Criterium) (Group 1) (2yo Colts & Fillies) (New Course) (Turf) (2yo)
7 – Pivotal Trigger
Won maiden at Galway after 2 previous starts by 1 1/2L close to the lead
On the lead in last on soft going, ran 3rd at 1 mile and didn’t have much at the end
Drops back to 7F and should make the lead again
After winning a maiden at Galway, shipped to ParisLongchamp for prep race for this race?
Breeder’s Cup horses? She’s bring other horses over so let’s see what he can do here
1 – Breizh Sky
Won the first start in a maiden by 8L in good time vs standard
Won by a head at Deauville against listed company time was ok
Last race, group 3 at ParisLongchamp, ran 2nd by a head, sat 3rd move to the lead, and lost by a head nod
Winner at distance and over the good to soft going
No reason I can see for a form reversal
5 – The Antarctic
Lost twice to Blackbread at the Curragh in group 1’s by 2L
Quick turnaround having raced 9 days ago
1 win at 6F over the good to soft going but placed in 5 of 6 races
He’s raced in 2 group 1’s, 2 group 2’s, 1 group 3 and 1 listed race
Maybe he prefers the softer going?
Race 2
1m Qatar Prix Marcel Boussac – Criterium des Pouliches (Group 1) (2yo Fillies) (Grande Course) (Turf) (2yo)
7 – Habana
2 races 2 wins, both in Germany
Last out group 3 win over the soft going by 2L
Won first start at 6 1/2F with much effort
Distance suits and going just a matter of if he’s good enough vs this bunch
Price? Maybe because he’s only raced in Germany but was the favorite in both races
2 – Wed
Won last by 2L in group 2 race at Deauville
4 races 3 wins, only lost was a run 2nd losing by 1 1/4L on the good to soft going
She will sit back and make 1 run at the leaders based on past race form
1 – Ardent
Only a maiden winner by 1 3/4L last out
First race was a 3rd back by 4 1/2L
She was a big favorite in both races
Steps up for Andre Fabre and seems to be on the right track to repeat
Race 3
1m4f Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (Group 1) (3yo+ No Geldings) (Grande Course) (Turf) (3yo+)
14 – Alpinista
This has been the target race for this race mare from the start
She’s raced twice this season, winning both by short margins
Last year, she raced mainly in Germany and beat last year’s winner of the Arc
She hasn’t lost since September of 2020
I was really impressed with her St Cloud race this year
She’s improved with age and for me is the one to beat
2 – Torquator Tosso
Won this race last year at 72-1, loves the soft to heavy going
Missed in his prep race at Baden-Baden by a head on the good to soft
Missed behind Pyledriver at Ascot in group 1 over the good to firm going
His first this season was his worst race running 6th by 18L
He certainly will not be 72-1 this time around but you still should get a good price
He will again love the very soft going
10 – Mendocino
Winner last out in 4 horse race at Baden-Baden beating Torquator Tosso
He ran 3rd and 4th at ParisLongchamp in listed and group 3 races
The race at Chantilly was not great with a 5th, he was ridden hard but ran evenly at the end but won a group 1 next out
A bit of a price, maybe?
Going is a question
Race 4
1m2f Prix de l’Opera Longines (Group 1) (3yo+ Fillies & Mares) (Grande Course) (Turf) (3yo+)
7 – Nashwa
Winner of last 2 races at Chantilly & Goodwood on good to firm and good to soft
She’s lost 1 race this season at Epsom at 12F which appears not to be her distance considering that she’s won at 8F, 10F, 10.5F
Distance and going are what she wants
Hollie Doyle & The Gosden’s have a very good horse
12 – Above The Curve
Winner of her last 2 at ParisLongchamp and the Curragh
She has 3 wins from 4 starts with a second in the race at Chantilly over soft ground
Distance is right, step up a bit in class and going should be ok
Ryan Moore rides for Joseph O’Brien which is interesting because he is generally the first call on Aiden O’Brien’s horses
5 – My Astra
Ran 2nd last out in June at the Curragh in group 1 race and returns here
She’s raced only 3 times this year with 1 win 1 second 1 third
Her win was at the listed level and also her 3rd in first start of the season
Last season they brought her backup for a similar break and she ran second in listed races at Salisbury
Saving her for the fall races?
Race 5
5f Prix de l’Abbaye de Longchamp Longines (Group 1) (2yo+) (Sprint Course) (Turf) (2yo+)
5 – Coeur De Pierre
2 races this season, 1 win and a 2nd in group 3 and listed races at Deauville and ParisLongchamp
Has won on the very soft in listed race last year and the ran awful in the next race in group 3 over the very soft
Difference? The win was at 5.5F and the other at 6F
Her races at 5F on the soft to very soft have been good but this is a step up in class
Price? Maybe
6 – Agioto
Won last 2 in Italy over the good going at San Siro and Campanella
He has mainly been racing on listed to group 3 type races
It took her 5 races to get his first win in 2021
Why pick? Big odds, likes the soft to heavy going
Big step up in class here
7 – Berneuil
Won the last start in group 3 at ParisLongchamp at 5F bu 3/4L on the soft going
Ran 3rd start before in listed race at the favorite
He was the favorite because in the race before that one, he beat top-class Suesa in a listed race by 2L
Likes 5F races and does well overall on soft going, only bummer race was on the heavy going
Race 6
7f Qatar Prix de la Foret Presente par Education Above All (Group 1) (3yo+) (New Course) (Turf) (3yo+)
10 – Tenebrism
Ran 3rd by 4L in last going 8F over soft going
The winner was Pearls Galore and Saffron Beach ran 2nd
Her 3rd race back was at Deauville going 7F, she won by 1 1/4L.
Her 5 races this season, 4 at 8F and 1 at 7F in top company
Her win? In the 7F race
She did good on good to soft and ran the last one on soft going
Ryan Moore to ride for Aiden O’Brien
5 – Goldistyle
Won her only start at 7F in listed race at ParisLongchamp but that was 4 races back
Mixed results all season with 1st, 4th, 3rd and 7th last out
Last out I am going to toss, never on terms
I think she is good enough to get a placing but she is not like her mother, Goldikova who won 3rd Breeders Cup races and ran 2nd the Breeder Cup race at 1 mile
2 – Fong
In form with 2 wins in last 2 in group 3 and allowance company
He has 1 bad race this season at 6F but the others are at 6.5F, 7F, and 7.5F
He has shown that he needs the extra distance beyond 6F
5 races 4 wins and the 6F race
He has won at ParisLongchamp too
Very soft should be at going he likes
