Foreign Friday heads to France for one of the biggest days on the international racing calendar as Tom and Rich tackle six Group 1 races from ParisLongchamp, highlighted by the Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe.
This is exactly what Foreign Friday was built for: elite international horses, unfamiliar form lines, different distances and race shapes, soft-ground questions, huge fields and opportunities to find horses the American betting public may overlook.
The card begins with two Group 1 races for two-year-olds before one of the fastest races of the day in the Prix de l’Abbaye. Then comes the centerpiece — the Arc — followed by the Prix de l’Opera and Prix de la Foret.
Tom approaches the races through traditional international form, class, trips, distance and going. Rich’s Ranks look for improvement patterns, course and distance records, pace scenarios, second-up improvement and opportunities to get away from the obvious choices.
Six Group 1 races.
ParisLongchamp.
And the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe.
Foreign Friday goes to Paris.
Race 1: Qatar Prix Marcel Boussac – Criterium des Pouliches – 7:31 a.m. ET
22-1 Tom’s Tips
8 – Green Empress – In her four races, she lost to Sun Goddess three times, finishing second each time. Without question, Sun Goddess is Europe’s best two-year-old. She won a Group 2 race at the Curragh over this distance. No Sun Goddess today, and she should be the favorite.
1 – Spirit Tango – She ran ok in her first start, running fifth, and then went on to win her next two starts, one on the all-weather and one on the soft going, following the leaders. Steps up and continues to get better with each race.
11 – Data – She did not have a clear run last time and finished third over one mile. Distance helps, and she will be moving at the end with a better trip.
Rich’s Ranks
8 – GREEN EMPRESS – only lost to SunGoddess – who has won 5 in a row
1 – SPIRIT TANGO – improved sharply in lone 2nd up and the extra distance helps
11 – DATA – 1 mile times are better than the rest
5 – QUEEN OF THE DAY – not a bad race in 3 and another where more distance helps
Race 2: Qatar Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere – 8:09 a.m. ET
22-1 Tom’s Tips
6 – Avec Toi – undefeated after four races, including a listed race and two Group Three races. She will run on the lead or press the leaders. She has been the favorite in every race.
10 – Amusingly – had the best of trips last time out over a mile; she was hampered and lost by a neck. Her other race was on the softer going.
1 – Folsom Blues – she has raced five times and won two of these races and ran second twice and third in her debut. Last time, she won a Group One at the Curragh by six lengths. She will be the favorite.
Rich’s Ranks
10 – AMUSINGLY – just missed in her last – lots of speed in here and a closer
1 – FOLSOM BLUES – coming off a dominating Group 1 win
9 – MAN’S BEST FRIEND – playing the closing angle vs a lot of speed again with O’Brien & Moore
6 – AVEC TOI – hasn’t lost in 4 – you don’t know how good a horse is until it loses
Race 3: Prix de l’Abbaye de Longchamp Longines – 8:47 a.m. ET
22-1 Tom’s Tips
12 – Shiri – she ran a good second last time in this race and won her previous race. She is stepping up but runs well in every race.
8 – Rumstar – this horse runs well almost all the time; the exception was at Royal Ascot. He has not won in a while but runs second or third against some of the top company in England. He ran third in his last two races; both were Group One races.
15 – Naana’s Shadow – won her last start beating Shiri. Like Shiri, she steps up in this race but has the form versus some of the other horses.
Rich’s Ranks
9 – MISS YECHANCE – this one is going to the front – most all others middle back
15 – NAANA’S SHADOW – won at the track and distance in last – 4 wins in 6 with Murphy
2 – COROLLA POINT – longshot for sure – but why not when ITM 7/7 at the distance
7 – MISSION CENTRAL – All or Nothing – been nothing but bad of late – time for some all
Race 5: Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe – 10:05 a.m. ET
22-1 Tom’s Tips
9 – Kalpana – she won her last two races, the last by a head. In the previous race, she beat Calandagon, one of the top runners in the world. Everything I see in her form shows this is her race.
14 – Maltese Cross – won his last start at York by two lengths and won the race before at this track by a head. He has five wins from seven starts, and in the other two races, he ran second.
16 – Diamond Necklace – ran second at Deauville last out on the soft going in a Group One race. That race was her only loss. She won at this track as a two-year-old and on the soft to heavy going. She will have to overcome the outside draw, but she has run well from outside before.
Rich’s Ranks
1 – DARYZ – will be the favorite and rightfully so
10 – FRIENDLY SOUL – 2 for 2 at Longchamp – including a Group 1 last out
14 – MALTESE CROSS – has not run a bad race in 7 and won lone race here in July
16 – DIAMOND NECKLACE – damn near $2M horse – 2/2 at the track and 7/6-1-0 lifetime
Race 6: Prix de l’Opera Longines – 10:50 a.m. ET
22-1 Tom’s Tips
10 – Miss Scott – won her last start at the Curragh in a Group Three race by over three lengths. She has only five starts and has never been out of the money. She will like the going and will be a short price.
2 – Aventure – should be the favorite and ran second to Diamond Necklace in her last start. She won a Group One at this track but has also run some poor races against top company. She has run well against her own sex. I am going to try to beat her, but she is good right now.
5 – Venetian Lace – ran fourth at Woodbine last time in a Grade One at 18-1. She pressed the leader but finished fourth, beaten by only half a length. Her Goodwood run was okay, finishing third in a Group Three race at a longer distance. She has a good chance to run in the money against these horses.
Rich’s Ranks
9 – MISS SCOTT – exploded last out in first ride by Soumillon – if they can build on that
2 – AVENTURE – rightful favorite and most likely winner – 2/2 at the distance
7 – JENNIFER JANE – crazy pick – but popped in both 2nd ups after horrible 1st up – best 1st up
8 – PRECISE – just one solid effort after the next
Race 7: Qatar Prix de la Foret – 11:25 a.m. ET
22-1 Tom’s Tips
4 – The Secret Adversary – his races at one mile have not been good, but at seven furlongs he has done much better, running first or second. He lost last time by three lengths at Deauville in a Group One going one mile; the race before, at seven furlongs, he won. He is a three-year-old and may have matured; the longer races will be better.
8 – True Love – She failed in her last two races at Leopardstown and Deauville, but those races were at one mile and six and one-half furlongs. She ran well before at Royal Ascot and Deauville against top horses. Win, no. In the money is my way to play her in this race.
5 – Nighttime – He does better at seven furlongs than at the one-mile distance. He has won and placed in group races at this track. He drops back to this distance and should have a better chance at seven furlongs.
Rich’s Ranks
7 – SHOWNA – improved both times in 2nd ups – short field – why not
2 – SAMANGAN – heavy ML favorite – did not win debut or lone 1st up
4 – THESECRETADVERSARY – has fired in 1st ups – beaten the other considerations
Where Tom and Rich Agree
The day starts with about as much agreement as possible.
In Race 1, Tom’s top three are Green Empress, Spirit Tango and Data.
Rich’s top three are Green Empress, Spirit Tango and Data.
Same horses. Same order.
Green Empress is particularly interesting because both handicappers arrive at her through the same basic idea: she has repeatedly run into Sun Goddess. With Sun Goddess absent, this may finally be her opportunity.
Race 2 has the same three major players but a different order. Tom puts undefeated Avec Toi on top, while Rich tries the closing Amusingly against a race containing plenty of speed. Both also respect the Group 1-winning Folsom Blues.
Race 3 provides our clearest shared opinion with Naana’s Shadow. Tom puts her third after defeating Shiri, while Rich moves her to second based on her track-and-distance win and four victories in six starts with Murphy.
Then comes the race everyone will be watching.
Race 5 – The Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe
This is where Tom and Rich start in completely different places.
Tom lands on Kalpana, who enters off consecutive victories and has already defeated Calandagon.
Rich goes with likely favorite Daryz.
But underneath them, the opinions converge.
Both have Maltese Cross third.
Both have tremendous respect for Diamond Necklace.
Maltese Cross has done virtually nothing wrong through seven starts, while Diamond Necklace brings a remarkable 6 wins and a second from seven lifetime starts along with a perfect record at Longchamp.
Different opinions on top.
Plenty of agreement behind them.
That’s what an Arc should look like.
Race 6 – Prix de l’Opera
There is another major crossover here with Miss Scott and Aventure.
Tom likes Miss Scott’s lightly raced profile, recent Group Three victory and ability to handle the going.
Rich also puts Miss Scott on top after her explosive last performance in her first ride with Soumillon.
Aventure is the horse Rich considers the most likely winner, while Tom acknowledges how good she is but deliberately tries to beat her.
That creates exactly the kind of race we like for Foreign Friday: respect the favorite without automatically surrendering the betting opportunity.
Race 7 – Prix de la Foret
Tom and Rich find common ground with The Secret Adversary.
Tom sees a horse who is simply better at seven furlongs than a mile.
Rich sees one who has performed well fresh and has already beaten some of the other contenders.
Rich takes the bigger swing on top with Showna, whose previous second-up improvement patterns make her interesting in a short field.
Foreign Friday Goes to Paris
Six races.
Every one a Group 1.
Two-year-olds trying to establish themselves among Europe’s best.
Five-furlong sprinters going flat out in the Abbaye.
Top-class fillies and mares in the Opera.
Seven-furlong specialists in the Foret.
And right in the middle of everything is one of the races every racing fan wants to win:
The Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe.
Tom brings the international form.
Rich looks for the patterns, pace and prices.
And if you’re willing to wake up early enough on Sunday morning, ParisLongchamp gives us nearly four hours of world-class racing.
Foreign Friday goes to Paris — on Sunday.
