Parx Racing Full Card Tips, Analysis and Suggested Wagers
$100 Challenge – Suggested Wagers for Parx on a $100 Budget
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: Finger Lakes
Parx Picks and Comments
Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapping
Race 1
1 – Live Aid – She won her last race at PARX Racing, the rail post is winning at 19% clip, she has a high % winning jockey, and her dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).
6 – Ms. Malevolence – She won her last race at PARX Racing and has the last highest last race speed rating.
5 – Boca Royalty – She likes the track finishing in the money in 59% of the starts winning 19% of the races and the distance is not a problem as she has finished in the money in 60% of the starts winning 20% of the races.
Longshot:
7 – Southern Cents – She won her last race at PARX Racing and her early speed running style helped her chances.
Alternate:
8 – Leviosa
2 – Mrs. Crews
Bet: $1.00 DD: 1,6/1,5,7
Race 2
7 – Long Term Thinking – He drops in class today and has a high % winning trainer who wins 28% of the claiming races he has an entry in.
5 – Manahawkin – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race, has a high % winning trainer and jockey who in the last 7 days has this record (17 5-2-5).
1 – One Slick Start – He won his last race at PARX Racing and switches to a high % winning trainer who wins 21% of the claiming races in the first race after claiming a horse.
Longshot:
4 – Portal One – He has won three out of nine races at PARX Racing and Drops in class today.
Alternate:
6 – Indirectly
Bet: $.50 Pick 4 –2nd race #1,5,7 – 3rd race #1,4,6 – 4th race #2,6,7 – 5th race # 2
Race 3
1 – Abidale – He won his last race at PARX Racing, the rail post is winning at 19% clip, he has high % winning trainer Jamie Ness and jockey Ruben Silvera.
4 – Touring Maryanne – He has won two out of his last three races and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
6 – Hightime Valentine – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race and has a trainer who wins 33% of the routes races he has an entry in.
Longshot:
7 – Mercy Mercy – He drops in class today, switches to a high % winning trainer and has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
2 – Wonder City
3 – Classy Miss
Bet: $.50 Trifecta: 1,4,6/1,4,6/1,4,6,7
Race 4
7 – City Rage – He drops in class today, has a high % winning trainer who wins 28% of the claiming races he has an entry in and has a high % winning jockey.
6 – Clemenza – He has finished in the money in four out of eight at PARX Racing, winning one of the starts and has a trainer/jockey combo who in the last 14 days has this record (5 2-0-2).
2 – Fox Red – He has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and he has a high % winning trainer.
Longshot:
4 – Thiscatcanjump – He drops in class today and has a good 4F workout on May-27.
Alternate:
3 – Float On
5 – Big Brown Shoes
Bet: – $.50 Pick 4 – 4th race # 2,6,7 – 5th race # 2,8 – 6th race #5,9 – 7th #5,6,9
Race 5
2 – Bustin Up – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race, has the highest last race speed rating and has a high % winning jockey.
8 – Bullet Butch – He has a high % winning trainer and high % winning jockey who in the last 7 days has this record (8 2-2-0).
4 – Hometown Hero – He has a high % winning jockey, drops in class today and has a trainer who wins 18% of the claiming race he has an entry in.
Longshot:
5 – Tuanis – He is returning to the turf where he has finished in the money in three out of six starts, winning two of the races.
Alternate:
7 – Ouch Ouch Ouch
6 – More Than a Dance
Bet: $10.00 Win: #2
Race 6
5 – Texas Basin – He has finished in the money in four out of five starts at PARX Racing, finishing in 3rd vs similar in his last race.
9 – Offshore Affair – He drops in class today and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
6 – Senior Investment – He switches to a high % winning jockey, has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Longshot:
1 – Olympic Romp – He has a high % winning trainer and jockey, and the rail post is winning at a 19% clip.
Alternate:
2 – Henrythethird
4 – Sacred Rider
Bet: $.50 Pick 5 – 6th 1,5,6,9 – race 7th race #1,5,6,9,10 – 8th race # 1- 9th race # 6 – 10th #5, 11
Race 7
6 – Minxzhippsdontleye – He won his last race at PARX Racing; his breeding suggests he will like the grass and he has a high % winning jockey.
5 – Gliding Afleet – He comes in from Gulfstream Park to try PARX Racing, has a high % trainer and high % winning jockey.
9 – Sal N Louie – He comes in from Golden Gate Fields after finishing in the money in four out six starts, winning one of the races and has a decent 5f ft on May 27 Parx.
Longshot:
1 – C C Goldrush – He switches a high % winning jockey, and his best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Alternate:
10 – Tap the Candy
Bet: $.50 Pick 4 – 7th race #1,5,6,9,10 – 8th race # 1- 9th race # 6 – 10th #5, 11
Race 8
1 – Kate’s Golden Dude – He has finished in the money in four out of his last five starts at PARX Racing, winning three of the races and finishing in 2nd vs similar in his last race and has a high % winning trainer.
5 – Substantial – He has won three races out of his last five starts, he is trained by Jamie Ness and ridden by Ruben Silvera.
8 – Jump Shot – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race, has a high % trainer and switches to a high % jockey.
Longshot:
6 – U U Star – He has won two races out of the last three starts and switches to a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
7 – Puttheglassdown
2 – Nick the Cardshark
Bet: $10.00 Win: #1
Race 9
6 – Pudding – He won his last race at Gulfstream Park and was claimed by a trainer who wins 29% of the claiming races in the first race after claiming a horse and switches to a high % winning jockey.
5 – Uncle Ernie – He finished 4th in his last race as the favorite but has a high % winning trainer who wins 37% of the races with a beaten favorite who returns to race again and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
2 – Five Dreams – He is always in the mix finishing in the money in nine out of the last ten starts and has the highest last race speed rating.
Longshot:
4 – Hopeful Treasure – He ran 2nd in his last race and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
1 – One More Scoop
3 – King Kumbalay
Bet: $10.00 Win: #6
Race 10
11 – Paradise Pride – He was claimed in his last race by a trainer who wins 34% of the races in the first race after claiming a horse and switches to a high % winning jockey.
5 – Empire’s Score – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race and his early speed running style helps chances.
1 – San Antone – He won his last race and was claimed in that last race by a trainer who wins 21% of the races in the first race after claiming a horse.
Longshot:
6 – Mississippi – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race, the shorter distance may be just the key and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Alternate:
8 – Cobble Hill
Rich’s Ranks
Race 1: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed – 33% w2w – PP: Inside 3 Edge, 4-7 Under Par, 8+ Fair
1 – LIVE AID – won last in claiming ranks, tr Mary Pattershall 35% with claim repeaters, better ATB in last
6 – MS. MALEVOLENCE – TLRSP# and better times at 6 1/2f v 6f and pace ATB
5 – BOCA ROYALTY – has the back class, cutting back to 6 ½ v should help, beat many of these
4 – VALUABLE BREIGH – running at the lowest level in last 10, BTN as the $0.90 favorite, maybe better in round two
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Trifecta: 1,6/1,3,4,5,6/1,5,6
Race 2: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed – 36% w2w – PP: Fair 1-7, 8+ Bonus
5 – MANAHAWKIN – nice overlay as SIM FAV, last race was better than it looks with better 6f final time by nearly 2 seconds
7 – LONG TERM THINKING – Silvera/Ness – dropping in class, concerned about distance 22/1-8-3
9 – MANOLETE – tough call over the 1, but outside posts a little better, better Parx and 6f numbers with a good chance to pop in round two off the bench
1 – ONE SLICK START – Miachael Calatano Jr 22% 1st off the claim – distance 6/3-1-0
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Pick 4: 5,7/1,4,7/3,6/2,8
Race 3: 1 Mile 70 Yards – Bias: Early Speed – 28% – PP: Rail Edge, 2-7 Fair, 8+ Under Par
4 – TOURING MARYANNE – +8 EP/LP combo – 1st off the claim, a couple of works since, 3SP# increases – Paco rides
1 – ABIDALE – Silvera/Ness – moving aggressively up in class, strong rail – better ATB in last
7 – MERCY MERCY – has the back class, solid combo of EP and C-Zone
3 – CLASSY MISS – tough call over the 6, but can’t ignore last race, it was brilliant and she followed her previous peak races with a carbon copy next out, maybe the pattern repeats
Suggested Wager: $1 Trifecta: 4/1,7/1,3,6,7
Race 4: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed – 36% w2w – PP: Fair 1-7, 8+ Bonus
3 – FLOAT ON – +6 EP/LP edge – should not be too far off the pace, 4 good works since being claimed in early April
6 – CLEMENZA – right distance 9/3-3-1 – only 1 win in 9 at any other distance, expecting more in 2nd up
2 – FOX RED – has a 5 point EP edge, dangerous if he holds the lead into the stretch – best combo of EP and C-Zone
7 – CITY RAGE – Ness/Silvera – drops in class after not firing in first race at Parx after coming in from tier 1 track – would have liked to see a work between races
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Pick 4: 3,2,6,8/2,4,9/5,6,9,11
Race 5: Race 7: 1 Mile 70 Yards Turf – 8 races Bias: Early Speed – 66% w2w – PP: None form the Rail, 2/3 Fair, 4-7, Little Discount, 8+ Major Bonus
2 – BUSTIN UP – early speed won both yesterday – should be up front top C-Zone, TLRSP, Parx grass 2/0-2-0
8 – BULLET BUTCH – might not look like it – but should also be close up, first on grass – Robert Reid 0-15 – Paco helps
6 – MORE THAN A DANCE – 2nd best C-zone and big drop off from there, top EP/LP number
4 – HOMETOWN HERO – results haven’t been there on grass yet, but some of the best races – should show up in W/P/S sometime
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Trifecta: 2,8/2,6,8/2,4,5,7,8
Race 6: 1 Mile 70 Yards – Bias: Early Speed – 28% – PP: Rail Edge, 2-7 Fair, 8+ Under Par
2 – HENRYTHETHIRD – overlay with top C-zone, TLRSP# and won last race by 16 w TLRSP# by a big margin – 50/50 he runs the same or bounces
9 – OFFSHORE AFFAIR – down in class, Ness/Silvera – back class, 1st off the claim 32% for Ness, Nice works
4 – SACRED RIDER – tough call over the 5 – Kendrick comes in to ride just this one? Must think the horse is ready and has back speed
1 – OLYMPIC ROMP – 2nd off the bench could be better, last race was better than it looks with faster fractions
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Pick 4: 2,4,9/2,4,9/1,2,4,5,9
Race 7: 7 ½ Furlongs Turf – Bias: 5 Races – 3 Early Speed – 2 w2w – PP: All Winners 4+
5 – GLIDING AFLEET – Gulfstream shipper, strong turf pedigree, tr Guadalupe Preciado winner 5/15 2nd off the claim
6 – MINXZHIPPSDONTLEYE – TLRSP# and the off track record suggest he might like grass
11 – LONG LEGGED BOY – best combo of EP, Overlay and C-Zone – if he gets in
9 – SAL N LOUIE – been off for almost a year to a day – the workouts are there and the AW record is there
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Pick 4: 5,6,9,11/1,8/5,6/3,5,11
Race 8: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed – 36% w2w – PP: Fair 1-7, 8+ Bonus
8 – JUMP SHOT – TLRSP# by a wide margin – better ATB in last, better fractions at 6 ½f v 6f and 3rd up
1 – KATE’S GOLDEN DUDE – drops in class, has the back class, but Parx 11/1-1-0
6 – U U STAR – drops off the claim for tr Ruperto Perez – winner 2/3 on the claim and drop
5 – SUBSTANTIAL – Ness/Silvera combo – again, could move up the ladder in race two off the sidelines with top EP/LP score
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Superfecta: 1,8/1,8/5,7,9/2,5,7,9
Race 9: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed – 33% w2w – PP: Inside 3 Edge, 4-7 Under Par, 8+ Fair
5 – UNCLE ERNIE – Never off the board in 10 at PARX – BTN FAV – tr John Servis 37% rebound, 3rd up and has by far the most upside
6 – PUDDING – Jorge Delgado bringing him up from Florida off the claim – 30% off the claim – could be hard to beat if he like PARX surface – no works is the concern
2 – FIVE DREAMS – drops in class, very consistent performer, ITM 10/12 at Parx – Distance 9/1-6-1
4 – HOPEFUL TREASURE – a tough call over the rest, but has been facing much tougher consistently
Suggested Wager: $2 Double: 5,6/3
Race 10: 7 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed – 32% w2w – PP: Strong Inside Out Bias
3 – MISTER WINSTON – NYRA class and track dropper with early speed and an inside draw
11 – PARADISE PRIDE – 1st off the claim for Ness, 34% winner, drops off the claim 37% winner, better ATB last out – but outside post hurts
5 – EMPIRE’S SCORE – much better fractions last out at 7f vs 6 – just missed at this level last out
12 – SOPHOS – best record at Parx and distance in this race, but outside post, although shouldn’t hurt as much as a closer
Suggested Wager: $1 Exacta Key Box: 3/5,11,12
