PARX Racing Full Card Tips, Analysis and Suggested Wagers
$100 Challenge – Suggested Wagers for PARX on a $100 Budget
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: Thistledown
Parx Picks and Commentary
Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapping
Race 1
7 – Bluey – He came in from Gulfstream Park to try PARX Racing, drops in class today, switches to a high% trainer and has the highest last race speed rating.
4 – The Boatman – He finished 3rd vs tougher in his last race, drops in class today, has a high % winning trainer and switches to a high % winning jockey who in the last 7 days has winning seven out of twelve starts.
6 – Dooq – He was well bet and finished 5th in his first start after experiencing problems, drops in class today and has a high % winning trainer.
Longshot:
2 – El Gran Cuyaya – He has an early foot so the shorter distance will help, and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
5 – Just Divine
3 – Jsk Pharaoh’sreign
Bet: $1.00 DD: 2,4,6,7/2,3,6
Race 2
3 – Country Captain – He has won two out of the last four races, drops in class today and has a high % winning trainer.
6 – Celtic Heart – He takes a big drop-in class today and likes the distance finishing in the money in 50% of the starts and winning 25% of the races.
2 – Mr. Tuttle – He has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
8 – Bode O – He drops in class today, has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and a trainer who wins 30% of races when taking a horse from a route to sprint.
Alternate:
7 – Dadashev
9 – Jay’stalker
Bet: $.50 Pick 4 –2nd race #2,3,6 -3rd race #1,5,6-4th race #3,4 – 5th race # 1,5,9
Race 3
5 – Freddyness – He drops in class today and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
6 – Mister J T – He has an early foot so he should improve at the shorter distance and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
1 – Jokemeister – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race the rail post is winning at a 19% and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Longshot:
2 – Primordial Fear – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race and has the highest last race speed rating.
Alternate:
4 – Wispering Springs
3 – Rockin Freebee
Bet: $.50 Trifecta Box: 1,5,6
Race 4
4 – True Dakotan – She went to Penn National and had a disappointing finish and returns to PARX Racing where she finishes in the money in 57% of the starts and winning 21% of the races and drops in class today.
3 – Singinthruthestorm – She has finished in the money in four races out of her last six starts, winning two of the races and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
2 – Formal Order – She ran 2nd vs similar in her last race, has the highest last race speed rating and the highest speed figure at today’s distance.
Longshot:
1 – Connoisseur – She has a high % winning jockey and rail post is winning at 21% clip.
Alternate:
5 – Splitzville
6 – Strum and Pluck
Bet: – $.50 Pick 4 – 4th race # 3,4 – 5th race # 1,5,9 – 6th race #1 – 7th #1,2,5,7
Race 5
5 – Captain Courtney – She finished 3rd vs similar (on Dirt) in her only start, her breeding suggests she will like the grass as she has a Dam has 3 winners from 7 starters and 2 Turf winners and has a trainer who wins 19% of races in a horse’s 1st race on the grass.
9 – Vanilla Bean – She comes in from Penn National after finishing second in her last race on the turf.
1 – Tempest Rising – She finished 2nd vs similar (on Dirt) in her last race and she has a Dam who has 1 winner from 2 starters and a jockey who in the last 7 days has this record (12 5-0-1).
Longshot:
4 – Gryphon’s Wings – She finished 4th in her maiden race, and she has a Dam who has 4 winner from 6 starters and has a high % winning trainer.
Alternate:
3 – Whatsagizmo
Bet: None
Race 6
1 – Paradise Valley – He won his debut race by 14 lengths at PARX Racing, switches to a high % winning jockey, the rail post is winning at 21% clip and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
5 – Parkerness – He has finished in the money in three races out of four career starts, winning one of the races and has a high % winning trainer.
7 – McCrakens Ghost – He finished 7th in his last race after coming into the stretch six wide, has a high % winning trainer and jockey and a good 4F workout on May-20.
Longshot:
2 – Pine Valley – He has a high % winning trainer whose entries wins 28% of the races when taking a horse from a sprint- route-sprint.
Alternate:
4 – Battuta d’Oro
Bet: $10.00 Win: #1
Race 7
5 – Breezy Gust – He is another horse who has won two races in a row and is now going for a hat trick, drops in class today and his jockey who in the last 7 days has this record (18 5-3-4).
6 – Ego Man – He has finished in the money in eight races out of his last nine starts, winning three of the races, has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
3 – In Sky We Trust – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race, has the highest last race speed rating (tie) and a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
4 – Easy Day – He has won six races out of thirteen starts at PARX Racing and has a high % winning trainer.
Alternate:
1 – Dollarization
Bet: – $.50 Pick 4 – 7th #3,4,5,6 – 8th race # 1,4- 9th race # 7,10 – 10th #1,2,4,6
Race 8
4 – Ruthanne – She has finished in the money in her two career starts, winning the last one at PARX Racing, has a high % winning jockey and the highest last race speed rating.
1 – Dream Chaser – She ran 2nd vs similar in her last race, has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
3 – Biogenic Babe – She 2nd vs similar in her last race, she is trained by Jamie Ness and ridden by Ruben Silvera.
Longshot:
2 – Dancing On My Own – She has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
7 – Blome
5 – Valiant Majesty
Bet: None
Race 9
10 – Possiblemente – He finished in the money in six races out of seven career starts, winning three of the races and his best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters.
7 – Roadtriptonowhere – He won his last race at PARX Racing, has a high % winning trainer and has the highest speed figure at today’s distance.
5 – Sovereign Change – He won his last race at PARX Racing and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
4 – Kodapendent –has a high % winning trainer and a bullet 5F workout on May-20.
Bet: $4.00 Win: #10
Race 10
2 – Sevier – He drops in class today, has a high % winning trainer whose entries wins 32% of the races when taking a horse from a sprint-sprint-route and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
6 – Speightster Red – He finished in the money in six races out of ten starts at PARX Racing, winning three of the races and switches to a high % winning jockey.
4 – Awesome Launch – He finished 2nd vs similar in his last race.
Longshot:
1 – Cartier Cat – He returns to the dirt where he seems to do better and at a distance he likes.
Alternate:
8 – Saint Marco
3 – Super Dude
Rich’s Ranks
Race 1: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed – 33% w2w – PP: Inside 3 Bias, 4-7 under Par, 8+ Fair
4 – THE BOATMAN – interesting that Paco rides this one instead of the 7 that he rode at GP
7 – BLUEY – TLRSP# and drops in class and track dropper
6 – DOOQ – well bet in debut and had a funky trip, drops in class today
2 – EL GRAN CUYAYA – flashes early speed and gets Sofia Vives today – weight break
Suggested Wager: $1 Exacta Key Box: 4/2,6,7
Race 2: 7 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed – 33% w2w – PP: Strong Inside 3 and then down from there
3 – COUNTRY CAPTAIN – All or nothing at Parx 4/2-0-0, both at 7f, drops in class
6 – CELTIC HEART – lowest level on last 10, only 1 work – but most upside
8 – BODE O – drops in class too, distance 7/1-2-1, much better late in last, Sofia weight break
1 – WHERESTHEPASSION – top EP/LP combo and rides the hot rail
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Pick 4: 3,6,8/1,6/3/1,4,5
Race 3: 5 ½ Furlongs – Bias: 50/50 – 34% w2w – PP: Inside 3 edge, 4-7 Discount, 8+ Fair
6 – MISTER J T – major ES improvement in his last, cutting back to 5 ½ furlongs helps
1 – JOKEMEISTER – faster fractions at 6 ½ f versus 5 ½, cut back to 5 ½ helps
5 – FREDDYNESS – Ness/Silvera and drops in class
2 – PRIMORDIAL FEAR – TLRSP# and lone PC horse and has plenty of pace to chase
Suggested Wager: $1 Exacta Key Box: 6/1,2,5
Race 4: 1 Mile – Bias: Early Speed – 49% w2w – PP: Inside Out Bias
3 – SINGINTHRUTHESTORM – drops in class back to where he finished 2nd by a head the last time he tried
4 – TRUE DAKOTAN – distance 11/0-4-4, top EP/LP combo with most LP
1 – CONNOISSEUR – can’t ignore EP edge with strong C-Zone
2 – FORMAL ORDER – TLRSP# at this level, Z pattern with 3SP# increases
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Trifecta: 1,3,4/3,4/1,2,3,4,5
Race 5: 7 ½ Furlongs Turf – Bias: 2 races – 1 w2w – 1 off the pace – 1 win 4-7 and the other 8+
5 – CAPTAIN COURTNEY – top Turf Pedigree by a decent margin – consistent in race #s from start to finish in debut – usually a good sign
4 – GRYPHON’S WINGS – second career start – first was OK – decent work between races
1 – TEMPEST RISING – Chris P angle at this level last out with TLRSP# – lone off track trip hints she might take to turf
9 – VANILLA BEAN – Chris P angle too, but MCL to MSW riser, should be closing
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Trifecta: 1,4,5/1,4,5/1,4,5,6,9
Race 6: 7 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed – 33% w2w – PP: Strong Inside 3 and then down from there
1 – PARADISE VALLEY – +15 EP/LP advantage, MCL win in debut by 14 – TLRSP#
7 – MCCRAKENS GHOST – Ness/Silvera on the drop, last was better than it looks with better early fractions, not sure if was class or slop that he didn’t like
5 – PARKERNESS – down in class and most consistent horse in the field, cutting back in distance could help
2 – PINE VALLEY – could be on the lead, won with ease the lone time Frankie Pennington rode
Suggested Wager: $1 Exacta Key Box: 7/1,2,5
Race 7: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed – 37% w2w – PP: Mostly Fair with 8+ Bonus
6 – EGO MAN – TLRSP# – plenty of early speed, cutting from 7f to 6f, should be fit
5 – BREEZY GUST – resume says he should up his output in 2nd up off the break – big class drop
3 – IN SKY WE TRUST – trending in the right direction and Paco riding
4 – EASY DAY – regressed 3 in a row, but has the best Parx and distance numbers, needs to bounce back
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Pick 4: 3,5,6/2,3,4/3,5,10/2,6,8
Race 8: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed – 37% w2w – PP: Mostly Fair with 8+ Bonus
3 – BIOGENIC BABE – running vs better at OP, 1st off the claim for Jamie Ness – 35% winner for 23% trainer – big Alpha angle – if 6f times from OP translate – wins by at least 1 length
4 – RUTHANNE – big MSW win with TLRSP# – late race improvement
2 – DANCING ON MY OWN – good class drop, Pennignton and Servis winner 6/14 together
1 – DREAM CHASER – distance 4/0-3-0 – Paco riding here
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Trifecta: 3,4/2,3,4/1,2,3,4
Race 9: 1 Mile 70 Yards Turf – Bias: 4 races 50/50 -2 w2w – PP: None from Rail, Bonus 2/3 and 8+, 4-7 under par
5 – SOVEREIGN CHANGE – just ran a week ago with huge LP, won both grass races – Paco
10 – POSSIBLEMENTE – a head and two necks away from winning six of last 7
3 – DALTON – top EP/LP horse in the race – big overlay and big chance to be on the lead
7 – ROADTRIPTONOWHERE – should improve in 3rd after a layoff, 3rd in lone trip on Parx turf
Suggested Wager: $1 Double: 5/2,4,6,8
Race 10: 1 Mile 70 Yards – Bias: Early Speed – 28% w2w – PP: Rail Edge – 2-7 Fair – 8+Discount
8 – SAINT MARCO – TLRSP# with a better 1m70y time by more than 3 seconds, if he runs back to the March 8th race, it won’t be close
6 – SPEIGHTSTER RED – owner and tr the same, – won by 6 ½ lengths the only time Paco road two back
2 – SEVIER – likes PARX – 17/11-0-2 – not a big fan of the regression last out
4 – AWESOME LAUNCH – finished 2nd at this level last out whereas a lot of the others are coming up in class, could improve 2nd up
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Trifecta: 2,6,8/6,8/2,4,5,6,8
