PARX Full Card Tips, Analysis and Suggested Wagers
$100 Challenge – Suggested Wagers for PARX on a $100 Budget
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: Thistledown
Parx Horse Racing Picks and Comments
Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapping
Race 1
5 – W. P. Cadet – He won his last race at Delaware Park, has the highest last race speed rating and a trainer who wins 25% of the starts with a horse who wins its maiden race and is entered in the following race.
6 – Smart and Fast – He drops in class today and switches to a high % jockey.
7 – Southern Runner – His best dirt speed is close to the avg winning speed, and he has a jockey who in the last 7 days has this record (12 4-3-0).
Longshot:
2 – Liberty Runner – He Best Dirt speed is close to the Avg Winning Speed and has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
4 – La La Lucy
Bet: $1.00 DD: 5/All
Race 2
5 – Strawberry Cone – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race and received the highest last race speed rating.
1 – Center Mid Maddie – He has an early foot so returning to a sprint should help, he has high % winning jockey Paco Lopez, and he has a high % winning trainer.
7 – Taco Bean – He has the highest speed figure at today’s distance, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters, and he has a high % winning trainer who in the last 14 days has won three out of four races.
Longshot:
4 – Healy’s Hope – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race and likes to finish 2nd or 3rd and should be used in the exotics.
Alternate:
6 – Skillful
Bet: $.50 Pick 4 – 2nd race #1,4,5,7 – 3rd race #4 – 4th race #1 – 5th race #2,3,4,5
Race 3
4 – Aunt Berra – She comes in from Monmouth Park after finishing 2nd in her last three races to try PARX Racing, her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters, and she has high % winning jockey Paco Lopez.
5 – Jumpstart Love – She has finished in the money in both of her career races finishing 3rd vs similar in her last race and can improve with blinkers added today.
8 – Dial for Love – She ran 2nd vs tougher in her last race as the favorite but has a high % winning trainer who wins 29% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again, drops in class today and has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
1 – Disco Daisy – She drops in class today, the rail post is winning at 22% clip, she should improve at the shorter distance and has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
7 – Bet On Drama
6 – Orb’s Party Girl
Bet: $4.00 DD 4/1 – $10.00 Win # 4
Race 4
1 – Twist Her – She won her last race at PARX Racing by over 9-lenghts, has the highest last race speed rating and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
5 – Onthisharvestmoon – She has finished in the money in six out of twelve starts, winning one of the races and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
2 – Luna T – She finished 3rd vs similar in her last race at PARX Racing and the distance will not be a problem.
Longshot:
4 – Eighty Eight Keys – Not sure what happened in her last race but I am going to ignore it as she has a bullet 4f workout on August 25th and returning to a sprint should help.
Alternate:
8 – Shell Belle
7 – Audit Committee
Bet: – $.50 Pick 4 – 4th race #1-5th race #2,3,4,5 -6th race #1,3,4,6,7 – 7th #5,8 – $10.00 Win # 1
Race 5
4 – Lucky Opportunity – She is a first-time starter who has a high % winning trainer Scott Lake and jockey Paco Lopez and has a good 4F workout on Sep-05.
2 – She’sallatwitter – She is a first-time starter whose Dam has 3 winners from 5 starters, her breeding suits today’s sprint distance and has a high % winning jockey.
3 – Eastern Sunrise – She is a first-time starter who has a high % winning trainer, and she has a good 4F workout on Sept-6.
Longshot:
5 – Gypsy Wanderer – She ran 3rd vs tougher in her last race at PARX Racing and drops in class today.
Bet: None
Race 6
6 – Big Cheeks – She traveled to Pimlico and Delaware Park receiving the highest last race speed rating and returns to PARX Racing where she is two for two and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
7 – Baby Gundin – She has finished in the money in her last five races, winning two of the starts, she has a high % winning trainer and jockey and a good 4F workout on Sep-05.
1 – Trolley Ride – She tried turf in her last race and did not fare well and returns to a surface she seems to like better; the rail post is winning at 21% clip and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
3 – Flashndynamite – She drops in class today, has the highest speed figure at today’s distance, best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters, and she has a high % winning trainer.
Alternate:
4 – Erin’s Enthusiasm
2 – Aegean Sea
Bet: None
Race 7
5 – Bronx Boys – He finished 3rd in his only start, received the highest last race speed rating and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
8 – Big Brook – He finished 2nd in his only start, has a high % winning trainer who wins 31% of the starts when taking a horse from a maiden to a maiden claiming race and has a high % winning jockey.
6 – Dudley Dickerson – He finished 3rd in his last start, and he switches to a high % winning trainer.
Longshot:
2 – Master Mojo – He is a first-time starter whose Dam has 2 winners from 2 starters and has high % winning jockey Paco Lopez.
Alternate:
4 – Lucky Dancer
3 – Viral Video
Bet: $.50 Pick 4 – 7th #5,8 – 8th race # 4,7 – 9th race # 1,3,9,14,15,16 – 10th # 6,10,11
Race 8
4 – Jebologist – He drops in class today and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
7 – Neigh Dude – He drops in class today and he has a high % winning jockey.
2 – Big City Bob – He likes PARX Racing finishing in the money in 64% of his starts, winning 18% of the races and the distance will not be a problem as he has finished in the money in 64% of his starts, winning 18% of the races.
Longshot:
3 – Mischievous Juan – He won two races in a row, went up in class finished 5th and now drops down in class where he can be competitive.
Alternate:
5 – Fox Red
Bet: None
Race 9
14 – Roadtriptonowhere – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
1 – Keithsendshelloooo – He won his last race at PARX Racing and received the highest last race speed rating.
16 – Sevier – He has won two out of his last three races has a high % winning and trainer jockey.
Longshot:
9 – Shpilkes – He had lots of trouble in his last race at Belmont Park and lost all chance of a good finish but prior had never finished out of the money winning two of four starts.
Bet: $1.00 DD: 14/1,3,6,7,10,11
Race 10
11 – Rockin Cowboy – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race, has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and a good 3F workout on Sep-02.
6 – R Goodtime Charlie – He finished 3rd vs tougher in his last race, drops in class today, has the highest last race speed rating and may improve with blinkers added today.
10 – Hibachi – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race and can improve at the shorter distance.
Longshot:
7 – Therisastormbrewin – He had a nice 3rd finish in his last race.
Alternate:
1 – Manolete
3 – Majestic Tiger
Bet: None
Rich’s Ranks
Race 1: 1 Mile 70 Yards – Bias: Early Speed, 31% w2w – PP: Small Rail Bonus, 2-7 Fair, 8+ Small Penalty
3 – RUNNIN JOKE – lowest level in career, lone win came off the bench like today
5 – W. P. CADET – TLSRP# in an MCL win at Delaware after switching from GP – 10 day turnaround
6 – SMART AND FAST – track dropper, class dropper and better ATB in last – could be pacesetter
4 – LA LA LUCY – proven she can win at price, was at PARX and distance
SUGGESTED WAGER: $0.50 Trifecta: 4,5,6/4,6/1,2,4,5,6
Race 2: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed, 37% w2w – PP: 1-7 Fair, 8+ Bonus
7 – TACO BEAN – should be better in 2nd start and be on/near the lead, PARX 5/2-0-0, everywhere else 1 win in 26 races
5 – STRAWBERRY CONE – TLRSP# has a couple of works between races, the right distance and top Total Pace
1 – CENTER MID MADDIE – won the last time he game off the bench – PACO steers the ship
4 – HEALY’S HOPE – better ATB in last – should be coming late
SUGGESTED WAGER: $0.50 Pick 4: 5,7/4,5,8/1,3/4,6,7,8
Race 3: 5 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed, 36% w2w – PP: Strong Rail, Inside 3 Bias, 4-7 Under Par, 8+ Small Bonus
8 – DIAL FOR LOVE – Ness/Silvera on the biggest drop in the field, better through first 2/4f last out, 2nd up
4 – AUNT BERRA – Paco on a track dropper with TLRSP#, finished 2nd in last 3 and 4 of 5, professional hanger
5 – JUMPSTART LOVE – was 60 cent favorite in last, ran a little faster, went to bench, three works getting ready and last was the best of the bunch
1 – DISCO DAISY – rides the high win rate rail, has a lot of EP, drops in class, but stops
SUGGESTED WAGER: $0.50 Trifecta: 4,5,8/4,8/1,4,5,7,8
Race 4: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 30% w2w – PP: Rail Fair, 2/3 Bonus, 4-7 Small Penalty, 8+ Fair
1 – TWIST HER – TLRSP# by a big margin, stepped it up in only other 2nd start
3 – ELL GRAY – flips from turf to dirt, the only other to come close to the 1’s SP#, bullet work says might do it again
8 – SHELL BELLE – won her debut w2w, lone win, off the bench for the 1st time, July 22 bullet work and 4 good maintenance works since
5 – ONTHISHARVESTMOON – tough call over the 2 – a bit more consistent and a swift work on Aug 24
SUGGESTED WAGER: $0.50 Pick 4: 1,3/4,6,7,8/6/2,5,6,8
Race 5: 5 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed, 36% w2w – PP: Strong Rail, Inside 3 Bias, 4-7 Under Par, 8+ Small Bonus
8 – AOIFE’S MAGIC – a back bullet work followed by a pair of maintenance works, becoming one of my favorite first timer angles
4 – LUCKY OPPORTUNITY – You have to think PACO is riding this first timer for a reason, tr Scott Lake 20% in debut MSWers vs 14% overall
6 – BOSSY KATE – last work might be the best of any for this group
7 – RUNUNOPPOSED – Pennington rides, hard to believe one of the top jockeys rides if he doesn’t have some insight
SUGGESTED WAGER: $1 Exacta Key Box: 8/4,6,7
Race 6: 1 Mile – Bias: Early Speed, 36% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, Inside Out Bias
6 – BIG CHEEKS – TLRSP# by a decent margin on July 1 – that was off the bench like today, Ness/Silvera with a pair of OK works between races
7 – BABY GUNDIN – last raced on July 3rd, a handful of works and last was best of the bunch
3 – FLASHNDYNAMITE – drops in class, Parx is the place, 24/13-4-1, elsewhere 2 wins in 26 races
2 – AEGEAN SEA – Tom’s sign of life horse, strong 2/4 pace# increases, third up, right distance 9/2-2-3
Race 7: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed, 37% w2w – PP: 1-7 Fair, 8+ Bonus
2 – MASTER MOJO – bullet work at Monmouth on Aug 19, maintenance work after and Paco rides
5 – BRONX BOYS – TLRSP# in debut by a about a length over the next closest, tr Edward Coletti, tr just 2/50 in second career starts
8 – BIG BROOK – Ness and Sanchez don’t work together often, winner 3/7 – Chris P horse, usually don’t like MCL risers but nest 32% on the angle, Alpha vs 25% overall
6 – DUDLEY DICKERSON – most of his races would likely be good enough to win this, but tends to get too far behind early, for he breaks sharply for new trainer Michael Moore, lookout
SUGGESTED WAGER: $0.50 Pick 4: 2,5,8/2,4,10/1,14,16/1,3,6
Race 8: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed, 37% w2w – PP: 1-7 Fair, 8+ Bonus
4 – JEBOLOGIST – Ness/Silvera on the class drop, has the most back class
2 – BIG CITY BOB – TLRSP# and more enthusiasm late in his last, 3SP# increases
10 – JOVIAL – sizable class drop, could get overlooked based on last race, broke through the gate and still ran, rarely if ever see horses do that and win
5 – FOX RED – tough call over the 7, PACO rides, better wet record and 7 has struggled off the sidelines
Race 9: 1 1/16 Miles Turf OFF –
16 – SEVIER – Ness and Pennington with a horse that likes a wet track, 18/6-0-4, third start after a layoff and strong work between races
14 – ROADTRIPTONOWHERE – very consistent performer that should be close to the front all the way around the track
1 – KEITHSENDSHELLOOOO TLRSP#, maybe a drop in class from state bred allowance – last peak number was followed my repeat performance
9 – SHPILKES – won last two races when coming off the bench and just ¾ length from winning debut to make it 3 for 3
Race 10: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed, 37% w2w – PP: 1-7 Fair, 8+ Bonus
6 – R GOODTIME CHARLIE – could be lone E and is coming off faster fractions as drops a little in class
1 – MANOLETE – ITM 10/15 on a wet track, held speed longer in last at 7F, cutting back to 6 helps
3 – MAJESTIC TIGER – Track dropper and left arrow horse, closer that should be close to the pace and best races were on the wet
11 – ROCKIN COWBOY – very consistent performer, good wet track record, not so good 1st up record
