PARX Full Card Tips, Analysis and Suggested Wagers
$100 Challenge – Suggested Wagers for PARX on a $100 Budget
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Free Parx Picks and Commentary
Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapping
Race 1
3 – Peacelovenkarma – She ran 2nd vs tougher in her last race, drops in class today and has the highest last race speed rating.
5 – Live Aid – She won her last race at Penn National, has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
2 – Xenatown – She drops in class today and early speed running style helps her chances.
Longshot:
4 – Risque’s Jewel – She ran 3rd in her last race, and she has a trainer who wins 19% of the claiming races he has a horse running in.
Alternate:
6 – Miss Alex
1 – Southern Cents
Bet: $1.00 DD: 3/1,4,6,8
Race 2
6 – Lean On E – She likes PARX Racing, finishing in the money in 66% of the her starts, winning 27% of the races and is having a good year finishing in the money in 71% of the her starts, winning 14% of the races.
1 – Take Charge Erica – She finished 3rd vs tougher in her last race, the rail post is winning at 22% clip, she drops in class today and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
8 – This Round’s Mine – She finished in 4th in her last race as the favorite but has a trainer who wins 24% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again, has the highest last race speed rating, and should improve at the shorter distance.
Longshot:
4 – Frankly My Dear – She finished 3rd vs similar in her last race and she has high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
3 – Frame This
Bet: $.50 Pick 4 -2nd race #1,4,6,8 – 3rd race #2,3 – 4th race #4,5,6 – 5th race #3,4,5
Race 3
2 – Juliet’s Music – She won her last race at PARX Racing, and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
3 – Tribord – She drops in class today, her early speed running style helps chances and she has a high % winning trainer.
6 – Beyond a Million – She drops in class today, has a high % winning trainer who wins 19% of the claiming races he has an entry in, and she has the highest speed figure at today’s distance.
Longshot:
4 – A Bit Bad N Boujee – She won her last race at Delaware Park, drops in class today and has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
1 – Mercy Mercy
5 – Tonala
Bet: None
Race 4
5 – Under the Radar – He drops in class today and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
4 – Speightster Red – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race, has the highest last race speed rating and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey and this combo in the last 14 days has this record (3 2-1-0).
6 – Roan Mountain – He drops in class today and he has the highest speed figure at today’s distance.
Longshot:
3 – Vine Jet – He switches to a high % winning trainer who wins 35% of the of the races when dropping a horse after claiming the horse.
Alternate:
2 – Margin of Air
1 – Cobble Road
Bet: – $.50 Pick 4 – 4th race #4,5,6 – 5th race #3,4,5 – 6th race #7 – 7th #1,2,3,6
Race 5
3 – Colonel Juan – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race, has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
5 – Kingsville – He drops in class today; he has a high % winning trainer who wins 40% of the of the races when dropping a horse down two plus classes and he has a good 5F workout on Sep-06.
4 – Heffner – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last two races.
Longshot:
1 – Jupi’s Lightning – He drops in class today.
Alternate:
8 – This Round’s Mine
Bet: None
Race 6
7 – Fancy Scepter – She won her last race at PARX Racing, and she has a high % winning jockey Paco Lopez.
6 – Louella Street – She drops in class today; she has a high % winning trainer and jockey, and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
3 – Heart Light – She ran 2nd vs similar in her last race and has a trainer who wins 20% of the starts in route races he has an entry in.
Longshot:
5 – Why Not Babe – She drops in class today, returning to dirt should help, she has a trainer who wins 25% of the starts when taking a horse from turf to dirt and she has a jockey who in the last 7 days has this record (8 2-1-3).
Alternate:
4 – Bruno Barber Girl
1 – Divinary
Bet: $10.00 Win #7
Race 7
6 – Bartlett – He is a first-time starter whose Dam has 5 winners from 6 starters, has a Sire who wins 20% of the starts with 1st time starters and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
3 – Swing Oil – He drops in class today, has a high % winning trainer, switches to a high % winning jockey and his speed rating earned in his only start labels him a threat.
1 – Whiskeyromeosierra – He finished 7th in his last start after having to take up sharply at the ½ mile, he drops in class today and the rail post is winning at 22% clip.
Longshot:
2 – Chineseiam – He is a first-time starter whose breeding suits today’s sprint distance and he has a good 4F workout on Sep-02.
Alternate:
8 – Chain Lightning
7 – Madurai
Bet: $.50 Pick 4 – 7th #1,2,3,6 – 8th race # 1 – 9th race # 5 – 10th # 2,4,5,10,14
Race 8
1 – Miss Dillingham – She won her last race at PARX Racing for the second win in a row and is now going for a hat trick, she has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
4 – Ifihadachance – She is another entry who has won two races in a row and is now going for a hat trick, and she has a high % winning trainer and switches to a high % jockey.
5 – Chelsea Wall – She has won two races out of the last three starts and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
2 – Amaterasu – She ran 2nd in her last race and has a high % winning trainer.
Alternate:
3 – Doctor Abbie
Bet: $10.00 DD 1/5 – $10.00 Win #1
Race 9
5 – Icy Storm – He comes in from racing at Monmouth Park after winning three out of the last four races returning to PARX Racing where he has done well in the past and he has a high % winning trainer.
8 – Social Group – He has finished in the money in five out of the last six races, winning two of the starts and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
6 – Celtic Treasure – He finished 3rd vs similar in last race and has high % winning Jockey Paco Lopez.
Longshot:
7 – Saint Marco – He finished 2nd in his last race only missing by a neck, he has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Alternate:
4 – Look Out Lambo
Bet: $10.00 Win #5
Race 10
4 – Retweet – He finished 2nd vs tougher in his last race, which was his first try on the turf at 7-1/2 furlongs and now extends out to a mile which may be the only thing he needs, and he has a trainer who wins 33% of the starts when running a horse in their second turf start.
2 – Last Dream – He has been knocking at the door finishing in the money on the dirt in his last seven races and now tries the turf for the first time to see if the door opens for him.
5 – Run for Karl – He likes the turf finishing in the money in both of his two career races and has finished in the money in nine out of the last ten races.
Longshot:
14 – Frugal Jude
Bet: None
Rich’s Ranks
Race 1: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 30% w2w – PP: Rail Fair, 2/3 Bonus, 4-7 Small Penalty, 8+ Fair
3 – PEACELOVENKARMA – track dropper from MTH, TLRSP#, average race is usually better than the best of any of the others
1 – SOUTHERN CENTS – going to take a shot here, better 2/4f pace#s in last, 3rd up with major step forward in most recent 3rd off the break
5 – LIVE AID – trending in the right directions with consecutive SP# increases, steps up in class after running a slowish race at Penn
SUGGESTED WAGER: $0.50 Pick 5: 3/8/1,2,6/4,5,6/2,3
Race 2: 5 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed, 36% w2w – PP: Strong Rail, Inside 3 Bias, 4-7 Under Par, 8+ Small Bonus
8 – THIS ROUND’S MINE – TLRSP#, taking a step down in class, 3rd up, a little better ATB, but Distance 4/0-0-0
1 – TAKE CHARGE ERICA – a little better late in her last run, small class drop, should be close to the pace on the strong rail
3 – FRAME THIS – down in class and consistent, gets a weight break today after being a little faster early in her last
4 – FRANKLY MY DEAR – better ATB in last and 3rd up, last 3rd up was the best of the bunch
SUGGESTED WAGER: $0.50 Trifecta Key: 8/1,3,4,6
Race 3: 1 Mile 70 Yards – Bias: Early Speed, 31% w2w – PP: Small Rail Bonus, 2-7 Fair, 8+ Small Penalty
1 – MERCY MERCY – Z pattern, maybe a little faster early in her last – drops in class close to a level she won with ease three back
2 – JULIET’S MUSIC – 3SP# increases in a row, a little slower fractions last out, but better at the end
6 – BEYOND A MILLION – drops in class, back to a level of her last win, all or nothing at PARX 18/6-0-0
3 – TRIBORD – should be part of the early going and has the most back class, every now and then throws in a big race
SUGGESTED WAGER: $0.50 Trifecta: 1,2,6/1,2/1,2,3,4,6
Race 4: 1 Mile 70 Yards – Bias: Early Speed, 31% w2w – PP: Small Rail Bonus, 2-7 Fair, 8+ Small Penalty
5 – UNDER THE RADAR – at times has brilliant LP, Parx 2/1-0-1, Distance 9/1-0-6
4 – SPEIGHTSTER RED – this horse like Paco, 2 wins, 2 seconds and a 5th
6 – ROAN MOUNTAIN – resume says either big improvement or big regression in 2nd up off the bench
3 – VINE JET – claim and drop for tr Michael Pino, slightly profitable if he wins, curious
SUGGESTED WAGER: $0.50 Pick 4: 4,5,6/2,3/3,7/1,3,6,8
Race 5: 1 Mile 70 Yards – Bias: Early Speed, 31% w2w – PP: Small Rail Bonus, 2-7 Fair, 8+ Small Penalty
3 – COLONEL JUAN – showed more LP in 1st up, stretching out from 7f could be useful
2 – RELATIVLEA – TLRSP# and drops in class, off since June 5th – 20f works since, some better than others
1 – JUPI’S LIGHTNING – drops in class and comes in after running mostly at MTH, PARX 29/6-5-4
4 – HEFFNER – cutting back from 1 1/16 miles could help, distance could be right, 7/2-2-1
SUGGESTED WAGER: $0.50 Trifecta: 2,3/1,2,3/1,2,3,4,7
Race 6: 1 Mile 70 Yards – Bias: Early Speed, 31% w2w – PP: Small Rail Bonus, 2-7 Fair, 8+ Small Penalty
7 – FANCY SCEPTER – TLRSP# in MCL win, PARX dirt 9/0-4-3, potential to be better in r2 off the bench
3 – HEART LIGHT – down in class following a Z pattern – distance 7/0-4-1 – PARX 5/0-3-1
5 – WHY NOT BABE – lone win came after flipping from turf to dirt, maybe it happens at a price here
6 – LOUELLA STREET – much better 2/4 pace#s in last, better ATB
SUGGESTED WAGER: $0.50 Trifecta: 3,5,7/3,7/1,3,5,6,7
Race 7: 5 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed, 36% w2w – PP: Strong Rail, Inside 3 Bias, 4-7 Under Par, 8+ Small Bonus
6 – BARTLETT – back bullet angle, July 26th, Parx 4f in 47.4 followed by a maintenance
8 – CHAIN LIGHTNING – another back bullet horse, Aug 10 at MTH and then a maintenance before today
3 – SWING OIL – very consistent performance from start to finish in debut w/o any real drop off
1 – WHISKEYROMEOSIERRA – a run back to the debut might be enough to get this after trying NGSTK in 2nd career start
SUGGESTED WAGER: $0.50 Pick 4: 6,8/2,4/5,6,7,8/2,4,5
Race 8: 1 Mile 70 Yards – Bias: Early Speed, 31% w2w – PP: Small Rail Bonus, 2-7 Fair, 8+ Small Penalty
2 – AMATERASU – could be pacesetter based on pace charts, weight break, distance 7/3-3-0
4 – IFIHADACHANCE – PARX 9/5-2-1, Distance 6/3-2-0, better late in last – not far from winning 8 of last 10
1 – MISS DILLINGHAM – TLRSP# being much better ATB, could regress a touch in round two
5 – CHELSEA WALL – Ness/Silvera in 2nd up, CV hints a more here with class drop
SUGGESTED WAGER: $0.50 Trifecta Key: 2/ALL
Race 9: 1 Mile 70 Yards – Bias: Early Speed, 31% w2w – PP: Small Rail Bonus, 2-7 Fair, 8+ Small Penalty
5 – ICY STORM – TLRSP#, 1st up since July 28th, pair of blah works, won last 1st up with race – all or nothing at the distance 9/5-0-0
8 – SOCIAL GROUP – should be on the gas from go and benefits from cut back in distance
6 – CELTIC TREASURE – can’t overlook PACO, consistent performer, best strides are late
7 – SAINT MARCO – Top Total Pace as lone EP horse, can be brilliant late at times
SUGGESTED WAGER: $0.50 Trifecta: 5,6,8/5,6/4,5,6,7,8
Race 10: 1 Mile Turf – OFF: 1 Mile – Bias: Early Speed, 36% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, Inside Out Bias
2 – LAST DREAM – fast track 8/0-3-4 – better ATB in last – trainer 0 for 37
4 – RETWEET – drops in class after a Z pattern, trainer is owner
5 – RUN FOR KARL
14 – FRUGAL JUDE
SUGGESTED WAGER: $3 Exacta Cold: 2/4
