PARX Full Card Tips, Analysis and Suggested Wagers
$100 Challenge – Suggested Wagers for PARX on a $100 Budget
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: Thistledown
Parx Picks
Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapping
Race 1
1 – J Wass – He finished 2nd in his last race, has a high% trainer and has the highest last race speed rating.
4 – Porsupuesto – He likes PARX Racing finishing in the money in 52% of his starts and likes the distance, finishing in the money in 75% of the starts.
2 – Jokemeister – His early speed running style helps chances, he has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Longshot:
5 – Mr. Tuttle – His best dirt speed is close to the avg winning speed, and he has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
6 – Dadashev
7 – Vero Sun
Bet: $10.00 DD: 1/7 – $1.00 DD: 1/2,3,4,5,6
Race 2
7 – Hurricane Highway – He finished 3rd vs tougher in his last race, he has a high % winning trainer who wins 32% of the starts when taking a horse down 2+ classes and a high % winning Jockey in who last the last 7 days has this record (8 3-1-2).
4 – Saint Marco – He drops in class today; his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie) and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
3 – Jw’s Third Mischie – He won in his last race at PARX Racing, and he has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
6 – Jump Shot – He has a high % winning jockey, and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).
Alternate:
2 – Rack Gin
5 – Crypt
Bet: $.50 Pick 4 -2nd race #3,4,7 – 3rd race #2,5 – 4th race #2,4,5,6 – 5th race #3
Race 3
5 – Carly Hustle – She finished 2nd in her last two races and returning to a route should help.
2 – Pecan Pattie – She has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
1 – Kentucky Pride – She drops in class today, has a trainer who wins 28% of the races when dropping a horse down 2+ classes, and the rail post is winning at a 21% clip.
Longshot:
6 – J J Loves Billy – She has four wins at PARX Racing.
Bet: None
Race 4
6 – Harley’s Charly – His early speed running style helps his chances, can improve at the shorter distance and he has the highest speed figure at today’s distance.
5 – Muttley – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
2 – Skyhook – He won his last race at PARX Racing, has the highest last race speed rating and he has a high % winning trainer.
Longshot:
4 – Little J P – His best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and his early speed running style helps his chances.
Alternate:
7 – Catty’s Uncle
3 – Spirit’s Hero
Bet: – $.50 Pick 4 – 4th race #2,4,5,6 – 5th race #3 – 6th race #3,4,5,7 – 7th #1,4,5,6
Race 5
3 – Gia’s Fuego – She ran 2nd vs tougher in her last race at PARX Racing, drops in class today and has the highest last race speed rating.
1 – Baci – She ran 2nd vs tougher in her last race and drops in class today.
8 – Boca Royalty – She finished 3rd vs similar in her last race and likes the distance.
Longshot:
7 – B B’s Rocket – She has finished in the money in three out of her last four races and the distance will not be a problem.
Alternate:
5 – Frankly My Dear
2 – Takestwotowiggle
Bet: $1.00 Exacta Key Box 3/All – $10.00 Win # 3
Race 6
5 – Runningforhome – He traveled to Penn National and won a race and now returns to PARX Racing where he has won five of his starts.
4 – Yes Sir Colonel – He likes PARX Racing finishing in the money in 46% of his starts, winning 23% of the races and likes the distance, finishing in the money in 52% of the starts and winning 22% of the races.
7 – Mister Winston – He drops in class today and has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
3 – Cartier Cat – He won his last race at Monmouth Park, returns to PARX Racing, drops in class today and he has a high % winning trainer.
Alternate:
2 – Causalistic
Bet: None
Race 7
6 – We Got Barnyard – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race and has a high % winning trainer.
4 – Bali Amour – He drops in class today, has the highest last race speed rating and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
5 – Savage Dragon – He drops in class today and he has a trainer who wins 30% of the starts when taking a horse from a maiden to a maiden claiming race.
Longshot:
1 – Myheartwillgoon – He drops in class today and the rail post is winning at 23% clip.
Alternate:
7 – Jesus’ Dream
2 – Klaatubarada Nikto
Bet: $.50 Pick 4 – 7th #4,6 – 8th race # 1,5 – 9th race # 2,6 – 10th # 1,5
Race 8
5 – North Pole – He has been knocking on the door finishing 2nd in his last three starts at PARX Racing, earning the highest last race speed rating.
1 – Winged Foot – He won his last race, and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
4 – Kenner – He ran 2nd vs tougher (on Turf) in his last race, drops in class today, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters, and he has a high % winning trainer who wins 31% of the starts when taking a horse from a sprint to route and has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
8 – Smarten Up – He has a high % winning trainer and has a bullet 5F workout on Aug-26.
Alternate:
3 – Supreme Being
7 – Titanium Reckage
Bet: None
Race 9
2 – Charm Alarm – She has finished in the money in eight out of eight career races, winning the last start and has a bullet 4f ft workout on Aug 23rd.
6 – Dream Concert – She drops in class today, can improve while returning to the dirt and she has a high % winning trainer who wins 19% of the starts when taking a horse from turf to the dirt and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
5 – Blome – She has been the bridesmaid in her last three starts and will try and be the bride by winning today and has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
1 – Wildcat Girl – She only needs to repeat her last win and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
3 – Comedy Act
4 – Kisses for Emily
Bet: $1.00 DD: 2/1
Race 10
1 – Bronx Tale – He ran 2nd in the last start, his first career race, has a high % winning trainer who wins 32% of the starts when taking a horse up one class has a high % winning jockey.
5 – Tatum – He drops in class today, has a high % winning trainer who wins 27% of the starts the first time in maiden claiming races his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie) and he has a trainer/jockey combo who in the last 14 days has this record (10 3-1-1).
6 – Marvelousmoondance – He switches to a high % winning jockey, can improve while returning to the dirt and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).
Longshot:
2 – Mo Than Luck – He drops in class today, switches to a high % winning jockey and should improve at the shorter distance.
Alternate:
7 – Caddy Man
Rich’s Ranks
Race 1: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed, 37% w2w – PP: 1-7 Fair, 8+ Bonus
1 – J WASS – better ATB in his last with TLRSP#
2 – JOKEMEISTER – most likely pacesetter and catches a weight break today with Sofia
6 – DADASHEV – fairly significant drop in class, last race was plenty better than it looks with better early fractions
4 – PORSUPUESTO – lone closer that is dropping in class
Suggested Wagers: $0.50 Pick 5: 1,2/3,5,7/1/2,4,5,6/3
Race 2: 7 Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed – 31% w2w – PP: Strong Inside 3 Bonus, Inside Out from There
5 – CRYPT – we’ll take the flyer with the strong overlay because upped pace# ATB and won last time he cut from a route to a sprint
7 – HURRICANE HIGHWAY – Ness – going to lose money on this horse if it’s claimed – why?
3 – JW’S THIRD MISCHIE – could be the pacesetter – not the biggest fan of claim and rise here
6 – JUMP SHOT – drops to lowest level in last 10 – tough call over the 4, but the 4 regressed badly the last time he ran a peak number like he did in his last
Suggested Wagers: $1 Exacta Key Box 5/3,6,7
Race 3: 1 Mile – Bias: Early Speed – 38% w2w – PP: Inside Out with 1-3 Edge, 4+ Under Par
1 – KENTUCKY PRIDE – drops multiple classes – chance to be better in 2nd up
2 – PECAN PATTIE – been regressing, maybe 3rd up is the difference
5 – CARLY HUSTLE – Z pattern in last – Parx looks like the right track 8/1-2-3
6 – J J LOVES BILLY – a little better fractions last out
Race 4: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed, 37% w2w – PP: 1-7 Fair, 8+ Bonus
6 – HARLEY’S CHARLY – probably raced way above his head last out, drops in class, should be as good or maybe better in round 2 off the bench – lone C versus all Es
2 – SKYHOOK – 3SP# increases in a row, MCL 16k winner in 10th try – can he go back to back?
4 – LITTLE J P – 3SP# Increases, held speed longer despite going a little longer
5 – MUTTLEY – could be the speed of the speed with the top C-Zone for speed horses
Suggested Wagers: $0.50 Pick 4: 2,4,5,6/3,8/7/1,3,4,5
Race 5: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed, 37% w2w – PP: 1-7 Fair, 8+ Bonus
3 – GIA’S FUEGO – TLRSP# and drops in class, benefits from the 4 scratching as main threat to be pacesetter
8 – BOCA ROYALTY – Lone C versus a field that want to be close to the front, Top LP but won’t be too far behind this bunch
1 – BACI – drops in class, weight break, much better late last out
2 – TAKESTWOTOWIGGLE – track and class dropper trying PARX for the first time
Suggested Wagers: $0.50 Trifecta: 3,8/1,3,8/1,2,3,7,8
Race 6: 1 Mile 70 Yards – Bias: Early Speed – 30% w2w – PP: Inside Out Bias – Mostly Fair, 8+ Small Penalty
7 – MISTER WINSTON – could have an aggressive EP edge and drops in class
5 – RUNNINGFORHOME – a little better ATB, should be closing late
4 – YES SIR COLONEL – aggressive drop in class, been regressing – has the back class to make this one EZ
2 – CAUSALISTIC – lowest level in last 10 – been performing at a level that should be really competitive for the win here – 15-1 odds seem off.
Suggested Wagers: $1 Double: 7/ALL
Race 7: 5 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Stalkers – 35% w2w – PP: Strong Inside 3 Edge, 4-7 Discount, 8+ A Little Better than Par
4 – BALI AMOUR – MSW dropper with the TLRSP# by a decent margin
5 – SAVAGE DRAGON – major improvement from debut to second start, same improvement gets it done
1 – MYHEARTWILLGOON – MSW dropper too, 1st gelded, but what catches my eye is a pair of 1 mile works since his last race – should be fit enough to run 5 1/2f all out
3 – NUEDORF – first time with a workout pattern that’s been paying off, a bullet works three back followed by 3 maintenance works
Suggested Wagers: $0.50 Pick 4: 1,3,4,5/4/1,3,6/1,2,5,8
Race 8: 1 Mile – Bias: Early Speed – 38% w2w – PP: Inside Out with 1-3 Edge, 4+ Under Par
4 – KENNER – Ness/Silvera making 3rd start after a layoff – small drop in class
1 – WINGED FOOT – won his last on Delaware turf, flips back to dirt after the MCL win
5 – NORTH POLE – going to on the gas from go, this is the right distance 11/0-5-5 – hangs late
8 – SMARTEN UP – best PARX numbers with a bullet and go for first race since mid June
Suggested Wagers: $0.50 Trifecta: 1,4,5/1,4/1,3,4,5,8
Race 9: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed, 37% w2w – PP: 1-7 Fair, 8+ Bonus
1 – WILDCAT GIRL – 4SP# increases w/TLRSP#, a little quicker at 6f v 5 ½ – aggressive step up
6 – DREAM CONCERT – major class drop from a pair of NGSTK – Distance 3/2-1-0 – 3/0-0-0 in all others
3 – COMEDY ACT – left arrow horse – Ness/Silvera – first go at Parx
5 – BLOME – 3SP# increases – better late in her last
Suggested Wagers: $0.50 Trifecta: 1,3,6/1,6/1,3,4,5,6
Race 10: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed, 37% w2w – PP: 1-7 Fair, 8+ Bonus
1 – BRONX TALE – +14 total pace says this one should be the easy winner, but…
5 – TATUM – Pure MSW to MCL dropper, fast track 7/0-3-2
8 – MOB JUSTICE – the only other pure MSW dropper, showed a lot of EP in debut, backed up, first Lasix could be the difference maker
2 – MO THAN LUCK – tough call over the 6, but the 6 has had 30 chances to win, this one is a NYRA track dropper with top jockey Pennington and improved nicely in only other 2nd up effort
Suggested Wagers: $1 Exacta Key Box: 8/ALL
