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American Pharoah Stakes-gate 10-4-25

Horse Racing Today

Parx Racing Picks & Analysis: Smart Sheets, Bias Insights, and Rich’s Winning Strategy for Every Race

We’re right back at Parx Racing with 10 races on a fast track, and today’s card features several wide-open races with big fields — the kind of setup that rewards strong race-shape reads, pace awareness, and smart data. Rich and Terry break down the entire card with: 🏇 Full 10-race analysis ⚡ Fast-track pace dynamics and pressure points 📊 Smart Sheets insights to separate contenders from chaos 🔥 Best Bet notes and multi-race thoughts 💡 Horses that fit today’s open, competitive profiles When fields are this deep, trip, timing, and positioning matter more than ever. If you’re looking for clarity on a tricky Parx card, this show is built for exactly that. Fast track. Big fields. Open races. Let’s break it down.

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Terry’s Picks

PARX Racing – 1-06-2026

Race 1

1 – Jace Is No Joke: Placed 3rd last race with strong trainer stats (23%-win rate for returning beaten favorites) and a top jockey; Rail post wins 17% of the time.

3 – Authentic Kingdom: Ran 2nd vs similar in last race; Can go the distance.

2 – Coalville: Finished 3rd vs similar in last race; Best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.

Longshot:

5 – Skull Honor: Finished in the money in 5 of 7 starts at PARX Racing; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.

Alternate:

7 – Star Man Bob

6 – Jolly Grey Giant

Race 2Female

7 – Reina Mar: Likes PARX Racing, finishing in the money in 100% of the races, winning 25% of the starts; can handle the distance, finishing in the money in 53% of the races; Has a high % winning trainer.

1 – Sweet Marie: Finished 3rd vs similar in last race; Rail post is winning at a 18% clip; Drops in class today; Has a high % winning trainer.

2 – Repaynt: Finished in the money in 3 of 5 starts at PARX Racing, winning 1 race; Drops in class today; Best Dirt speed is close to the Avg Winning Speed.

Longshot:

6 – Eloper: Drops in class today; Has a high % winning trainer.

Alternate:

4 – Miss Jones

9 – Vicki Vale

$.50 Pick 4: 1,2,4,6,7/5,6/2,8/2,5,6,7,9 – Cost $50.00  

Race 3-Female

5 – Bright Kohana: Finished in the money in 9 out of 10 starts, winning 4 races; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.

6 – Wink of an Eye: Finished in the money in 4 of the last 4 starts, winning 2 races; Finished 2nd vs similar in last race; Can handle the distance.

3 – Miss Easy: Won 2 races out of the last 4 races at PARX Racing; Has a high % winning trainer; Has a bullet 4F workout (Dec-26).

Longshot:

4 – Ambitiously Placed: Finished in the money 2 races the last 3 starts, winning 1 race; Drops in class today; Best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.

Alternate:

2 – Leftover Sushi

1 – I Believe in Magic

Race 4Female

8 – Red Head Italian: Has won her last two races in a row and now goes for a hat trick; Highest last race speed rating; Has a high % winning trainer.

2 – Violets Smile: Finished 3rd vs similar in last race; Early speed running style helps chances so the shorter distance can help; Has a high % winning jockey.

10 – Everheart: Drops in class today; Has a trainer who wins 34% of the races in the 2nd race after claiming a horse.

Longshot:

11 – Moor Strength: Finished in the money in the 2 races out of last 3 starts; Switches to a high % winning trainer and jockey.

Alternate:

9 – Spirited Ride

7 – I’m a Lucky Girl

$.50 Pick 4: 2,8,10,11/2,6,7,9/5,6/2,3,6 – Cost $48.00  

Race 5-Female

6 – Paddy’s Gift: Won 2 of last 3 starts; Drops in class; Has a high % winning trainer; Has a good 4F workout (Dec-31).

9 – Wild Girl: Drops in class; improve while returning to a sprint; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.

7 – Shudabeenacowgirl; Finished 3rd vs tougher in last race; Highest last race speed rating (tie); Drops in class today.

Longshot:

2 – Iracebeth: Early speed running style helps chances; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.

Alternate:

5 – Rose of Sharon

Race 6-Female

6 – Moon Fleet: Finished in the money in 6 races of the last 7 starts; Drops in class today Has a high % winning jockey.

5 – Wine and Roses; Ran 2nd vs similar in last race; Highest last race speed rating; Has a trainer who wins 17% of the Sprints races she has a horse running in.

4 – Leretha: Finished 3rd vs similar in last race; Best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).

Longshot:

7 – Seven P R C: Can improve while trying dirt; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.

Alternate:

1 – People Get Ready

2 – Judy’s Flyer

Race 7

6 – Cap Steak Robbery: Finished in the money in 4 of 4 career starts, winning 1 race; Highest last race speed rating.

3 – Battle Anthem: Won the last race at PARX Racing; Has a high % winning trainer.

2 – No Mor Stones: Has won 1 race out of 2 starts at PARX Racing; high % winning trainer wins 23% of the races when taking a horse from a route to sprint.

Longshot:

5 – Desert Aire: Finished in the money in the 3 races out of last 4 starts, winning 1 race; Has a high % winning trainer.

Alternate:

8 – Punch It Margaret

1 – Reverse the Curse

$.50 Pick 4: 2,3,5,6/2,5,6,8/1,4/3,6,7 – Cost $48.00

Race 8

6 – In Spades: Finished 3rd in last race; Has a high % winning trainer.

5 – Smile Maker: Won last race at PARX Racing; Has a high % winning trainer; strong jockey stats.

8 – Jamie Dreams: Strong at PARX Racing with 43% in-the-money finishes and a 19%-win rate; handles this distance well with 44% in-the-money finishes.

Longshot:

2 – Legal Deal: Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.

Alternate:

4 – Expensive Cut

Race 9-

4 – Quasi Warrior: Finished in the money in 4 of 4 career starts, winning 3 races; Strong win percentage for trainer and jockey.

1 – Harp’s Hot Corner: Placed 4th last race with strong trainer stats (34%-win rate for returning beaten favorites) and a top jockey; Rail post wins 17% of the time.

7 – Countthebrave: Finished in the money 2 races the last 3 starts, winning 1 race; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.

Longshot:

8 – Lasso: Has won his last two races in a row and now goes for a hat trick; Highest last race speed rating (tie).

Alternate:

2 – Cojelo Pa Ti

10 – Tunisian Spring

Bet: $20.00 Win: 4 – $10.00 Exacta Box: 1/4 – $10.00 Exacta:4/1,2,7,8 – $3.00 Exacta Box: 1/4/7

Race 10-Female

7 – Take Time to Dream: Finished in the money 7 races the last 8 starts, winning 2 races; Has a high % winning trainer; Can handle the distance.

6 – Pontiffany: Drops in class today; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.

3 – Fuhgeddaboudit: Finished 3rd in last race; Highest speed figure at today’s distance; Best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters; Has a high % winning trainer.

Longshot:

2 – Winkiwinki: Finished 3rd in last race; Highest last race speed rating.

Alternate:

1 – Aruma

Best Bet of the Day at PARX Racing – 9h Race – #4 – Quasi Warrior

Rich’s Picks

Race 1: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Stalkers, 36% w2w – PP: Strong Inside 3, 4+ Similar Discount

1 – JACE IS NO JOKE – could test the lead and has a strong C ZONE

2 – COALVILLE – fairly consistent – similar fractions at a route as a sprint

$0.50 Trifecta Box: 1,2,6,7

Race 2: 1 Mile 70 Yards – Bias: Stalkers, 30% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2+ Almost Fair

7 – REINA MAR – Top TOTAL PACE with the best C ZONE – ITM 4/4 at Parx

4 – MISS JONES – SIM FAV – needs to rebound – Z Pattern

1 – SWEET MARIE – last race better early pace and fractions

2 – REPAYNT – last race 2 seconds faster – but definitely needs improvement

$0.50 Pick 4: 1,4,7/1,5,6/2,8,11/3,6,7

Race 3: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Stalkers, 36% w2w – PP: Strong Inside 3, 4+ Similar Discount

1 – I BELIEVE IN MAGIC – TLRSP#+7 and big SIM FAV  – top PAR+

5 – BRIGHT KOHANA – Top TOTAL PACE – run back to Nov 5 race and it’s easy

6 – WINK OF AN EYE – ITM 4/4 at Parx and 3/3 at the distance

3 – MISS EASY – consistent and decent works prepping

$5 Exacta Key Box: 1/3,4,5,6

Race 4: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 37% w2w – PP: Inside 3 Best, 4+ Similar Discounts

8 – RED HEAD ITALIAN – TLRSP#+9 and should be on the lead – SIM FAV

11 – MOOR STRENGTH – will be closing – could be better in 3rd up

2 – VIOLETS SMILE – Top TOTAL PACE – should be better in the 3rd up

5 – ISLAND DREAM GIRL – better EP in last – should be forward

Race 5: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Stalkers, 36% w2w – PP: Strong Inside 3, 4+ Similar Discount

7 – SHUDABEENACOWGIRL – Top TOTAL PACE +7 – better early and late

6 – PADDY’S GIFT – comes in from GP – needs to get off to a good start

3 – NANISCA – out on the lead – decent works prepping

9 – WILD GIRL – maybe cutting back in distance helps

$0.50 Trifecta Box: 3,6,7,9

Race 6: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Stalkers, 36% w2w – PP: Strong Inside 3, 4+ Similar Discount

4 – LERETHA – speed and small fade at the end – more stamina in 2nd start

5 – WINE AND ROSES – TLRSP#+4 and Top TOTAL PACE – more in 3rd up

1 – PEOPLE GET READY – track dropper – consistent performer

2 – JUDY’S FLYER – SIM FAV – better EP and Fractions

$0.50 Trifecta Box: 1,2,4,5

Race 7: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Stalkers, 36% w2w – PP: Strong Inside 3, 4+ Similar Discount

6 – CAP STEAK ROBBERY – Top TOTAL PACE +14 – better EP and Fractions

2 – NO MOR STONES – SIM FAV – Top PAR+ – run back to NON 24th and it’s a win

5 – DESERT AIRE – lone other 3rd up was a big rebound race – looking for the same here

8 – PUNCH IT MARGARET – only YES horse – great works prepping

$0.50 Pick 4: 2,5,6/5,8/1,4,7,8/2,7,8,9

Race 8: 1 Mile – Bias: Early Speed, 36% w2w – PP: Rail Discount, 2-7 Bonus, 8+ Discount

8 – JAMIE DREAMS – TLRSP#+7 – Better EP and Fractions – 3rd Up

5 – SMILE MAKER – should show some EP – better by 2 seconds – big benefit with 7 scratching

2 – LEGAL DEAL – very consistent performer – with the biggest in race edge +5 LS

3 – LOVE ME NOT – definitely filled with back class – Sanchez rides

$0.50 Trifecta Box: 2,3,5,8

Race 9: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Stalkers, 36% w2w – PP: Strong Inside 3, 4+ Similar Discount

4 – QUASI WARRIOR – pacesetter vs mostly middle back – ½ length from being undefeated

8 – LASSO – Top TOTAL PACE +5 – won with ease – concerns over peak race

7 – COUNTTHEBRAVE – track dropper – could challenge for the lead

1 – HARP’S HOT CORNER – should be better in 3rd up – distance 5/4-1-0

Race 10: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 37% w2w – PP: Inside 3 Best, 4+ Similar Discounts

2 – WINKIWINKI – SIM FAV and Top TOTAL PACE

8 – WARRIOR’S MISS – better 5 WAYS

7 – TAKE TIME TO DREAM – better early in last with room for upside in 2nd up

9 – GHOSTLY GIRL – track dropper in the 3rd up

$0.50 Trifecta Box: 2,7,8,9

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