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Parx Horse Racing Picks and Analysis

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Parx Racing Picks & Analysis: Terry’s Picks and Rich’s Ranks

Terry’s Picks and Rich’s Ranks for all 12 races at Parx including the Smarty Jones Stakes

It’s a huge 12-race card at Parx Racing, and Terry and Rich attack the entire program with two different handicapping approaches. Terry focuses on recent form, trainer/jockey statistics, track and distance records, class, workouts and longshot opportunities, while Rich’s Ranks combines Smart Sheets, SIM Odds, SIM Speed, Total Pace, C-ZONE, pace and fraction advantages, class movement and Parx-specific track profiles to identify contenders and betting value.

Here are Terry’s Picks and Rich’s Ranks for all 12 races at Parx including the Smarty Jones Stakes.

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Race 1: 1 Mile 70 Yards – Early Speed, Rail and 8+ Best

Terry’s Picks

3 – Warrior Wayne: Finished in the money 5 races out of the last 6 races, winning 2 races; Likes the distance; High % winning trainer and jockey.

11 – Youbetterbejoking: Won 2 races out of the last 3 starts; Switches to a high % jockey; High % winning trainer.

6 – Modica: Likes PARX Racing, finishing in the money in 63% of the races, winning 25% of the starts; Can handle the distance, finishing in the money in 60% of the races, winning 20% of the starts.

Longshot: 9 – Traffic Master: Ran 2nd vs similar in last race; High % winning trainer.

Alternate: 4 – Master of None

Rich’s Ranks

3 – WARRIOR WAYNE – big drop and +7 Total Pace

11 – YOUBETTERBEJOKING – biggest dropper – better EP/FRACTIONS

8 – BESTSUGARDADDYEVER – most upside – switching back to Sanchez helps

2 – MALIBU WARRIOR – on the pace with the best C-ZONE

$5 Exacta Key Box: 3/1,2,8,11


Race 2: 7 Furlongs – Early Speed – Inside Out

Terry’s Picks

9 – Ten Plus Ten: Won 2 races in a row going for a hat trick; Speed rating increasing the last 3 races; High % winning trainer and jockey.

3 – Trotsky: Finished 3rd in last race; Likes the distance; Strong trainer stats.

2 – Right Wing Runner: Early speed running style helps chances; High % winning jockey.

Longshot: 7 – Biz Whiz: Won last race; High % winning trainer and jockey.

Alternate: 8 – Global Steve

$.50 Pick 4: 2,3,7,9/2,8/2,3,4,6/1,2,9 – Cost $48.00

Rich’s Ranks

9 – TEN PLUS TEN – SIM FAV – only with better EP/FRACTIONS

7 – BIZ WHIZ – Ness and Hazelwood with top C-ZONE

3 – TROTSKY – Top C-ZONE and most upside as SIM SP# Fav

6 – KING DEIVYS – biggest in-race edge +15 LS and 1 length TOTAL PACE edge

$0.50 Pick 4: 3,6,7,9/2,3,8/2,3,5,6/2,9


Race 3: 1 Mile 70 Yards – Early Speed, Rail and 8+ Best

Terry’s Picks

8 – Center Stage: Finished in the money 8 races out of the last 10 races, winning 2 races; High % winning trainer and jockey.

2 – Girvinized: Likes PARX Racing, finishing in the money in 80% of the races, winning 20% of the starts; Can handle the distance, finishing in the money in 73% of the races, winning 27% of the starts.

1 – Umbral: Ran 2nd vs similar in last race; Rail post is winning at 21% clip; Early speed running style helps chances.

Longshot: 4 – Winkiwinki: Won 2 races in a row; High % winning trainer wins 27% of the races when taking a horse from a Sprint to Route; High % winning jockey.

Alternates: 9 – Tara’s Talent, 3 – Miss Jones

Rich’s Ranks

3 – MISS JONES – SIM FAV – best value – super consistent – distance 9/4-0-3

2 – GIRVINIZED – Ness and Hazelwood again – only better EP/FRACTIONS and drops

8 – CENTER STAGE – most upside in the race – tied for the biggest drop

1 – UMBRAL – the other with the biggest drop and Top TOTAL PACE

$5 Exacta Key Box: 3/1,2,8


Race 4: 6½ Furlongs – Early Speed, Inside Out

Terry’s Picks

3 – No Easy Days: Likes PARX Racing, finishing in the money in 100% of the races, winning 30% of the starts; Can handle the distance, finishing in the money in 90% of the races, winning 20% of the starts.

2 – Paco the Taco Man: Finished in the money in the last 7 races, winning 5 races; High % winning trainer and jockey.

4 – Chris’s Revenge: Finished in the money 9 races out of the last 10 races, winning 3 races; High % winning trainer and jockey.

Longshot: 6 – Lasso: Won 5 races out of the last 10 starts; Highest last race speed rating; High % winning trainer.

Alternates: 8 – Lucky Dude, 5 – Downtownchalybrown

$.50 Pick 4: 2,3,4,6/1,2,9/1,3,4,6/1,6 – Cost $48.00

Rich’s Ranks

2 – PACO THE TACO MAN – Sanchez & Ness – 3/2-1-0 at Parx – by a ½ length

5 – DOWNTOWNCHALYBROWN – SIM FAV – strong value and solid C-ZONE

3 – NO EASY DAYS – could be on the pace with the most upside – ITM 9/10 at PARX

6 – LASSO – TLRSP#+5 – most LP with better Early PACE/FRACTIONS and drops

$0.50 Pick 4: 2,3,5,6/2,9/1,3,6/1,3,4,5


Race 5: 7 Furlongs – Early Speed – Inside Out

Terry’s Picks

2 – Yes Picnic: Ran 2nd in last race, winning the previous race; Strong trainer and jockey stats.

1 – Dadoo: Rail post is winning at 22% clip; High % winning trainer and jockey.

9 – Formaggio: Finished 3rd in last race; Strong trainer stats.

Longshot: 3 – Maximus Angelicus: Finished in the money 3 races out of the last 4 races; Switches to a high % jockey; Good 4F workout (Aug-08).

Alternates: 7 – Ruby Ruby, 11 – Prayed for Girl

Rich’s Ranks

2 – YES PICNIC – Top C-ZONE with TLRSP# +3 – Ness & Hazelwood 2/2 at PARX

9 – FORMAGGIO – SIM FAV – top SIM SP# and 1 length TOTAL PACE

1 – DADOO – benefits from the rail – drops – ranks well in most Smart Stats

3 – MAXIMUS ANGELICUS – Paco on the lead and drops


Race 6: 6½ Furlongs – Early Speed, Inside Out

Terry’s Picks

1 – Unwritten Rule: Finished in the money 4 races out of 5 career races, winning 3 starts; Drops in class today; Strong trainer and jockey stats.

3 – Connor’s Crew: Won last race at PARX Racing; Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters; Strong trainer and jockey stats.

6 – Fulmine: High % winning trainer and jockey; Can improve while returning to dirt and a sprint.

Longshot: 4 – Mister Monday Nite: Won 2 races out of 4 career starts; High % winning trainer and jockey.

Alternates: 5 – Mailata, 2 – Flyin Hawaiian

$.50 Pick 4: 1,3,4,5,6/1,6/3,5/3,4,5,6,7 – Cost $50.00

Rich’s Ranks

3 – CONNOR’S CREW – TLRSP# +13 with best C-ZONE – 3rd up – regression possible

1 – UNWRITTEN RULE – Pacesetter and Track and biggest dropper

6 – FULMINE – what’s Flavien Prat doing here? Track dropper with strong C-ZONE too

5 – MAILATA – most upside in the race – but that last race sucked


Race 7: 6½ Furlongs – Early Speed, Inside Out

Terry’s Picks

1 – Buccherino: Likes PARX Racing, finishing in the money in 89% of the races, winning 67% of the starts; Can handle the distance, finishing in the money in 100% of the races, winning 100% of the starts.

6 – Spikezone: Finished in the money in the last 6 races, winning 3 races; Strong trainer and jockey stats.

5 – Houghton Shuffle: Ran 2nd in last race; Has a high % winning trainer.

Longshot: 4 – Fire Pit: Won 2 races in a row going for a hat trick; Strong trainer and jockey stats; Bullet 5F workout (Aug-11).

Alternates: 3 – Maximus Meridius, 2 – Bump N Run

Terry’s Best Bet of the Day

Race 7 – #1 BUCCHERINO

Bet: $20 Win: 1 – $10 Exacta Box: 1/6 – $10 Exacta: 1/4,5,6 – $5 Exacta Box: 1,5,6

Rich’s Ranks

3 – MAXIMUS MERIDIUS – SIM FAV with the most upside and should be forward

1 – BUCCHERINO – should be involved early too 4/4 at the distance

4 – FIRE PIT – Flavien again – Parx 7/4-1-1 – elsewhere 12/1-2-2

5 – HOUGHTON SHUFFLE – biggest in-race edge 2 lengths LS and Top TOTAL PACE


Race 8: 6½ Furlongs – Early Speed, Inside Out

Terry’s Picks

5 – Morethanafeeling: Won 2 races out of the last 3 starts; High % winning trainer wins 25% of the races when dropping off win; Has a high % winning jockey.

3 – Fine Diamond: Finished in the money 2 races out of the last 3 races, winning 2 races; Strong trainer and jockey stats.

2 – Coach Bennett: High % winning trainer wins 22% of the Allowance races; Switches to a high % jockey; Returning to a sprint will help.

Longshot: 4 – Get Set: Has a high % winning trainer; Switches to a high % jockey; Highest speed figure at today’s distance; Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters.

Alternates: 6 – A Votre Sante, 8 – Charlie Mac Mac

Rich’s Ranks

4 – GET SET – Only YES horse – better EP/FRACTIONS – Sanchez and Pino 40% win rate

5 – MORETHANAFEELING – SIM FAV – 1st up is questionable

3 – FINE DIAMOND – potential to be on the pace with Top TOTAL PACE

9 – RESPIRATOR – Top SIM SP# – biggest Value – highest AVG race


Race 9: 1 Mile – Early Speed, Rail and 8+ Best, 4-7 Fair

Terry’s Picks

6 – Offaly Cool: Won 6 races out of the last 10 starts; Strong trainer stats; Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie); Bullet 5F workout (Aug-10).

7 – Wild Vine: Finished in the money in the last 10 races, winning 5 races; High % winning trainer and jockey.

3 – Nelson Avenue: Can improve while returning to dirt; High % winning trainer wins 19% of the Non-Graded Stakes; High % winning jockey.

Longshot: 5 – Stronsino: Won 2 races in a row going for a hat trick; High % winning trainer and jockey.

Alternate: 4 – Grand Mo the First

$.50 Pick 4: 3,5,6,7/1,2,3,4/6/2,3,5,7,9,10 – Cost $48.00

Rich’s Ranks

7 – WILD VINE – most Upside 50 cent SIM FAV – TLRSP# +5 – Top TOTAL PACE +8

6 – OFFALY COOL – biggest in-race edge +8 LS – wins 1st up

5 – STRONSINO – better EP/FRACTIONS – 2nd race after a year off – lookout with the lead

4 – GRAND MO THE FIRST – Paco on a track and class dropper

$0.50 Pick 4: 6,7/2,6/2,4,5,6/3,5,6,7,9


Race 10: 1 Mile 70 Yards – Early Speed, Rail and 8+ Best

Terry’s Picks

2 – Tap to Open: Finished in the money 4 races out of 5 career races, winning 2 starts; Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie); Strong trainer and jockey stats.

3 – Ms Sophistication: Won 2 races in a row; Can handle the distance, finishing in the money in 100% of the races, winning 50% of the starts.

4 – Miss Fulton Gal: Won 3 races out of the last 6 starts; Drops in class today; Strong trainer stats.

Longshot: 1 – Project Maximus: Won 2 races out of 4 career starts; Rail post is winning at 21% clip; High % winning trainer.

Alternates: 6 – Moon Halory, 5 – Mollewantacracker

Rich’s Ranks

2 – TAP TO OPEN – TLRSP# +3 with top SIM SP# +5 and Top TOTAL PACE of 2 lengths

6 – MAJESTIC LUCIA – late race advantage of a length LS – better EP/FRACTIONS drops

4 – MISS FULTON GAL – top C-ZONE – track dropper that ran in the Black-Eyed Susan

5 – MOON HALORY – longest shot – 5 horse field – why not?


Race 11: 1 1/16 Miles – Closers, Outside In – but Rail Better than 2/3

Terry’s Picks

6 – Ponder and Dream: Won last race at PARX Racing by 14 lengths; Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters; High % winning trainer and jockey.

3 – Freedom’s Echo: Won last race at PARX Racing; Strong trainer and jockey stats; Good 4F workout (Aug-08).

1 – Tifosi: Ran 2nd in last race; Has a high % trainer; Likes the distance.

Longshot: 2 – Micanopy: Finished in the money 3 races out of the last 4 races, winning 2 starts; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.

Alternates: 4 – Star Sweeper, 6 – Lord Winsalot

Rich’s Ranks

6 – PONDER AND DREAM – on the pace w/ TLRSP# +5 – most upside

2 – MICANOPY – biggest in-race edge of 2 lengths LS – bias fit

5 – VERY VOLATILE – boom or bust in first 3rd up – needs to be forward

4 – STAR SWEEPER – only class dropper – Parx 3/2-1-0


Race 12: 6½ Furlongs – Early Speed, Inside Out

Terry’s Picks

10 – Ringer Card: Won last race at PARX Racing; Strong trainer and jockey stats; Good 4F workout (Aug-10).

9 – Lady Annabelle: Won 4 races in a row; Highest speed figure at today’s distance; Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters; Strong trainer and jockey stats.

7 – Mamarsha: Won last race at PARX Racing by 7 lengths; Highest last race speed rating; Strong trainer and jockey stats; Good 4F workout (Aug-10).

Longshot: 3 – Sister Eve: Won 2 races in a row going for a hat trick; High % winning trainer and jockey.

Alternates: 5 – Divine Seeker, 2 – West of Lex

Rich’s Ranks

7 – MAMARSHA – Top C-ZONE and was better 5 ways – won last – 1st at Parx with ease

9 – LADY ANNABELLE – pacesetter with best C-ZONE for ES – won 4 in a row

6 – BANCO DI SICILIA – SIM fav and Track Dropper – big Value – speed 1st Lasix

3 – SISTER EVE – top TOTAL PACE with the biggest in-race edge +7 LS – won 3/4 at Distance

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