PARX Racing Tips, Commentary, Analysis and Suggested Wagers
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: Fort Erie – https://www.guaranteedtipsheet.com/index.aspx?afid=hrt
Free PARX Racing Picks
Terry’s Picks
Race 1–Female
1 – Emily’s On Fire: Finished in the money in 5 of her last 7 races, with 2 wins and switches to a high-percent winning trainer and jockey.
4 – Miss Cinnamon: Likes PARX Racing, finishing in the money in 63% of the races, winning 11% of the starts and distance will not be a problem as she has finished in the money in 100% of the races, winning 25% of the starts.
7 – Spirited Ride: Ran 7th last out after having trouble; has a leading trainer.
Longshot:
2 – Everheart: Won last race; Highest last race speed rating; Best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters; has a leading jockey.
Alternate:
3 – Sofster
5 – Mo’s Vino Mesa
Race 2–Female
4 – Cruise Missile: Finished 2nd last out, owns today’s fastest dirt speed, and is paired with a top trainer and jockey.
3 – Queenmother: Ran 2nd last out against similar; can improve at the longer distance and gets a leading trainer and jockey.
6 – Awesome Sunshine: Second last out; Early speed running style helps chances.
Longshot:
5 – Weekend Honor: Drops in class today and the longer distance offers hope for improvement.
Alternate:
1 – Tiggy Thunder
$.50 Pick 4: 3,4,5,6/1,2,6/3,4,6,7/2,5 – Cost $48.00
Race 3-Female
1 – Midway Vow: Runner-up last out on turf; early speed suits the shorter trip. Tied for the best dirt speed among today’s starters and has a top trainer and jockey.
2 – Got Game: Won last race by 11-lenghts and has a high-percent winning trainer and jockey and this combo in the last 14 days (5 3-1-1).
6 – Tavria: Class drop today; can improve while returning to a route and is trained by a high-percentage winner.
Longshot:
5 – Judy’s Flyer: Could improve on return to this route; tied for fastest dirt speed among today’s starters.
Alternate:
3 – Gettothstoryimdone
4 – U Know When U Know
Race 4
6 – Rocket Night: Ran 3rd against tougher last race; tied for fastest dirt speed today, trainer wins 25% of races when dropping 2+ classes and has a top-winning jockey.
4 – Kevin’s Strike: Moves to a high-percent trainer (14 days: 14 5-4-1), tied for fastest dirt speed today, and recently posted a strong 4F workout (Sep-17).
3 – Winning Song: Drops in class today; has a top-winning trainer wins 50% when taking a horse from a maiden to a maiden claiming race. Blinkers are added today.
Longshot:
7 – Saucy Ham: Ran 3rd his last race and has a top trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
2 – Bag O’Loot
1 – Blacktie Gift
$.50 Pick 4: 3,4,6,7/2,5/4,5,7/2,3,4,6 – Cost $48.00
Race 5-Female
5 – Don’t Post It: Won 2 races of the last 3 starts and has a high-percentage winning trainer.
2 – Wonderfulvenezuela: Has a high % winning trainer and jockey and she can handle the distance.
7 – Royal Prado: Won last race at PARX Racing; Highest last race speed rating; Best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Longshot:
1 – Repaynt: Rail post is winning at 19% clip; Has a high % winning trainer.
Alternate:
4 – Lu Lu Vaton
3 – J J’s Honor
Race 6
7 – Grande Felino: Finished 3rd vs tougher in only start, Drops in class today with a leading trainer and jockey.
4 – Cap’n Cats: Ran 2nd vs similar in last race; Best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and has a high % winning trainer.
5 – Accelerated Dating: First time starter whose Dam has 4 winners from 6 starters and 1 stakes winner; Breeding suits today’s sprint distance and benefits from top trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
3 – Club Soda Johnny: Has a high % winning trainer and can improve in second career race.
Alternate:
1 – Lord Anthony
6 – Lucky Capo
Race 7–Female
4 – Act of Faith: Was 3rd as the favorite last time, has a trainer who wins 28% with beaten favorites returning to race; She has a good 4F workout (Sep-13).
6 – Kiss Me Slow: 2nd vs similar last out; Best dirt speed among today’s field; Top speed figure at distance; Strong 4F workout (Sep-13).
3 – Leaner and Meaner: Drops in class; may show potential with effort on dirt; well-backed on debut; solid 4F workout (Sep-13); now on Lasix.
Longshot:
2 – Tiptop: Ran 3rd in last race; has a top-winning trainer wins 50% when taking a horse from a maiden to a maiden claiming race and has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
5 – Instant Vision
7 – Sweet Distraction
$.50 Pick 4: 2,3,4,5,6/1,5/6,7/2,3,4,5,8 – Cost $50.00
Race 8-Female
5 – Date Night Kisses: Trainer has a strong record with returning beaten favorites (31%-win rate); class drop today; top speed at this distance; fastest dirt speed among today’s runners and paired with a high-percentage winning jockey.
1 – Cindy’s Song: Finished 3rd vs similar in last race, has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
2 – Bravo Zulu: She has won 2 races out of 4 starts at PARX Racing running 2nd in last race, benefits from top trainer.
Longshot:
4 – Girlfromouterspace: Ran 2nd in her last race; and has a high-percent winning trainer.
Alternate:
3 – Hi Heeled Warrior
7 – Tomarie
Bet: $20.00 Win: 5 – $10.00 – Exacta Box: 1,5 – $10.00 Exacta:5/1,2,4 – $5.00 Exacta Box: 1,2,5
Race 9–Female
6 – Annieworkstoomuch: Performs well at PARX Racing, finishing in the money 70% of the time and winning 30% of her starts. Distance is not an issue.
7 – Miss Easy: Won last race at PARX Racing and has a high-percent winning trainer and jockey.
1 – Put the Crazy Away: Finished 2nd but has a trainer has a strong record with returning beaten favorites (30%-win rate); Rail post is winning at a 20% clip and has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
3 – Awesome Annmarie: Won last race at PARX Racing; Highest speed figure at today’s distance; Best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and has a high-percentage winning trainer.
Alternate:
5 – Never Sway
4 – Karen’s Honor
Race 10
8 – Iconic Legacy: Likes PARX Racing, finishing in the money in 62% of the races, winning 24% of the starts and distance will not be a problem as she has finished in the money in 60% of the races, winning 30% of the starts.
3 – Hot Rod Rumble: Finished 2nd last time against stronger competition; drops in class today. Trainer wins 20% of the races in a horse’s first start with the trainer; recorded the highest speed at this distance.
4 – Enforcer: Switches to a high% trainer, benefits from top jockey and best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Longshot:
5 – Big Brown Shoes: Ran 2nd vs similar in last race and has the highest last race speed rating.
Alternate:
2 – Bargaining Power
Best Bet of the Day at PARX Racing – 8th Race – #5 – Date Night Kisses
Rich’s Picks
Race 1: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 35% w2w – PP: Inside Out
1 – EMILY’S ON FIRE – SIM FAV – good chance to be out front – better in 2nd up
2 – EVERHEART – TLRSP#+ 8 – a little better early – a lot better late
3 – SOFSTER – track dropper – incrementally getting better – should be forward
4 – MISS CINNAMON – by far best C ZONE – last race better than it looks – never off the board in 4 at the distance
Race 2: 1 Mile – Bias: Early Speed, 31% w2w – PP: Rail Discount, 2-7 Bonus, 8+ Discount
4 – CRUISE MISSILE – only YES horse – SIM FAV – top Total Pace of 1 ½ lengths
1 – TIGGY THUNDER – rail stinks – but closest to PAR vs the rest being noes
3 – QUEENMOTHER – just missed in her last – resume says better in 3rd up
5 – WEEKEND HONOR – biggest class dropper – will need a rebound effort in 4th race
$0.50 Pick 4: 1,4/1,2,4,6/3,4,6,7/2,5,7
Race 3: 1 Mile 70 Yards – Bias: Early Speed, 30% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2/3 Fair, 4-7 Discount, 8+ Almost Fair
1 – MIDWAY VOW – only YES horse with TLRSP#+12 – better late
2 – GOT GAME – Ness and Sanchez – 3rd up in 4th career start – 2 decent works between races – by far best C ZONE
6 – TAVRIA – track dropper – only class dropper – some good Parx works
4 – U KNOW WHEN U KNOW – top total pace – shot to be on the lead with most LP
$10 Pick 3: 1/6/5,7
Race 4: 1 Mile 70 Yards – Bias: Early Speed, 30% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2/3 Fair, 4-7 Discount, 8+ Almost Fair
6 – ROCKET NIGHT – 3SP# Increases = TLRSP#+7 – could be forward vs mid back types
3 – WINNING SONG – biggest class dropper – 3 lengths – 2nd up
7 – SAUCY HAM – only 4th career start – Z Pattern – 3rd up – Top Total Pace +5
4 – KEVIN’S STRIKE – SIM FAV and track dropper – ok PARX work
$0.50 Pick 4: 3,6,7/2,5,7/4,5,7/3,4,6
Race 5: 1 Mile 70 Yards – Bias: Early Speed, 30% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2/3 Fair, 4-7 Discount, 8+ Almost Fair
7 – ROYAL PRADO – TLRSP#+7 – SIM FAV – Top Total Pace, Par + by a decent margin
5 – DON’T POST IT – hot or cold type – wins big or gets smoked – front runner +8 ES
2 – WONDERFULVENEZUELA – Track Dropper – steady performer – should be a little better in 2nd up
1 – REPAYNT – better EP in last – rail bonus – another track dropper
$5 Exacta Key Box: 7/1,2,4,5
$5 Double: 5,7/4
Race 6: 5 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 48% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2-7 Under Par, 8+ Fair
4 – CAP’N CATS – TLRSP# +13 – Big Sim FAV at 2/5 –
5 – ACCELERATED DATING – 1st timer vs noes and 1 maybe – ok works
7 – GRANDE FELINO – 2nd race upside with good chance to be on the lead – track dropper
1 – LORD ANTHONY – not the biggest Penn shipper fan – but MSW dropper that was decently bet in debut with some EP
$5 Pick 5: 4/3,4,6/5/3/3,8
Race 7: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 35% w2w – PP: Inside Out
3 – LEANER AND MEANER – what’s Chad Brown doing here? Looking to pick up a check for a horse that’s been sidelined for more than a year – recouping spent money
4 – ACT OF FAITH – track dropper – was the even money favorite in debut – 2nd race upside – owner is trainer
6 – KISS ME SLOW – highly consistent so far – TLRSP# +11
2 – TIPTOP – moving up in class in 2nd up after more than a year off – want to keep the horse in the barn
$0.50 Pick 4: 3,4,6/1,4,5/1,3,5/3,4,8
Race 8: 1 Mile – Bias: Early Speed, 31% w2w – PP: Rail Discount, 2-7 Bonus, 8+ Discount
5 – DATE NIGHT KISSES – SIM FAV with +11 Top Total Pace – Ness and Sanchez
1 – CINDY’S SONG – just missed in her last – cutting back in distance helps
4 – GIRLFROMOUTERSPACE – only YES horse that was 5 ways better in last
2 – BRAVO ZULU – could be pacesetter – winner 2/4 at Parx
Race 9: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 37% w2w – PP: Inside 3 Edge, 4+ Same Discount
3 – AWESOME ANNMARIE – TLRSP#+5 – tends to run well in bunches
1 – PUT THE CRAZY AWAY – missed as the 8/5 Fav vs top pick in last
5 – NEVER SWAY – Top Total Pace +5 – 2nd try at Parx after a rough trip in her last
6 – ANNIEWORKSTOOMUCH – lone E potential – could be out there today – Parx 10/3-4-0
Race 10: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 37% w2w – PP: Inside 3 Edge, 4+ Same Discount
3 – HOT ROD RUMBLE – Track Dropper SIM FAV – lone class dropper – best chance to hit Par
8 – ICONIC LEGACY – just missed last out – 3rd up and likely going to be better today
4 – ENFORCER – YES horse that with better EP in last
5 – BIG BROWN SHOES – just missed in his last – maybe extra distance helps
