Parx Racing is back. After the track’s mid-summer break, we return to Bensalem for a 10-race card in the mud, and there’s no easing our way back into things.
Wet conditions can completely change the complexion of a race. Early speed can become even more dangerous, some horses simply love an off track, and others can be eliminated before the gates ever open. That makes today a perfect card to put Smart Sheets to work.
There’s also some momentum to carry into the return to Parx. Terry is looking for his third consecutive Best Bet winner, while Rich enters the day with his top choice winning at nearly 40% during August.
We’ll use Smart Sheets to dig into:
- SIM Odds versus the Morning Line
- SIM Speed and Total Pace advantages
- Projected first-call leaders and early pace
- C-Zone and PAR
- Horses whose running styles fit today’s race shape
- Value opportunities the betting public may overlook
On a muddy day, finding winners is only part of the job. Identifying horses that don’t fit the conditions or race setup can be just as valuable when we start constructing Pick 4s, exactas and the rest of the day’s tickets.
The break is over. Terry goes for three straight Best Bets. Rich tries to stay hot with his top pick winning at 40%. Smart Sheets goes back to work at Parx.
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Race 1 – 1 Mile 70 Yards – Early Speed, Rail and 8+ Best
Terry’s Picks
2 – Royalties Riches: Finished 3rd in last race; Has a high % winning trainer; Likes distance.
6 – Ranting and Raving: Likes PARX Racing, finishing in the money in 50% of the races, winning 10% of the starts; Can handle the distance, finishing in the money in 83% of the races, winning 17% of the starts.
3 – Extrasexyzqteepeye: Ran 2nd in last race; Has a high % winning trainer who wins 66% dropping off claim; Likes the distance.
Longshot:
5 – American Peaches: Finished 3rd in last race; Can improve while returning to a route.
Alternate:
7 – Catrina Zar
Terry’s Suggested Wager:
$.50 Pick 4: 2,3,5,6/3,4,5,7/2,5/3,4,6 – Cost $48.00
Rich’s Picks
6 – RANTING AND RAVING – lone Yes most upside, career best on an off track for SIM FAV
2 – ROYALTIES RICHES – standout C ZONE – much faster fractions last out
3 – EXTRASEXYZQTEEPEYE – could be lone E is she gets to the front
7 – CATRINA ZAR – TLRSP# + 5 – tough call over the 5 – but 5 tr 0-19
Rich’s Suggested Bet:
$0.50 Pick 4: 2,3,6,7/3,4/1,2,5/3,4,5,6
Race 2 – 6 Furlongs – Early Speed, Inside Out
Terry’s Picks
4 – Vix: Won last race at PARX Racing; Drops in class today; High %winning trainer and jockey.
3 – Battle Anthem: Won last race at PARX Racing; Drops in class today; High %winning trainer.
5 – Reverse the Curse: Drops in class today; Switches to a high % jockey; Strong trainer stats.
Longshot:
7 – Prairie Dunes: Ran 2nd vs similar in last race; Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Alternate:
8 – Bobo Liver
2 – Southern Dream
Terry’s Suggested Wager:
$.50 Pick 4: 3,4,5,7/2,5/3,4,6/1,2,5,6 – Cost $48.00
Rich’s Picks
3 – BATTLE ANTHEM – big SIM FAV with SIM SP# +7 and top TOTAL PACE – both wins on off
4 – VIX – Pacesetter with standout C ZONE – 2nd up and cutting back in distance helps
7 – PRAIRIE DUNES – the only other YES horse with the 3
6 – SCUDETTO – biggest in race edge of more than a length LS
Rich’s Suggested Bet:
$0.50 Pick 4: 3,4/1,2,4,5/3,4,5,6/5,6,7
Race 3 – 1 Mile 70 Yards – Early Speed, Rail and 8+ Best
Terry’s Picks
5 – War Commander: Won last race at PARX Racing; Highest last race speed rating; Has a high % winning trainer.
2 – What It Tiz: Likes PARX Racing, finishing in the money in 50% of the races, winning 20% of the starts.
1 – River’s Gamble: Rail post is winning at 21% clip; Can handle the distance.
Longshot:
3 – Run Cory Run: Can improve while returning to a route; Highest speed figure at today’s distance.
Alternate:
4 – Real Conviction
6 – Back East
Rich’s Picks
2 – WHAT IT TIZ – top C ZONE after being 5 ways better in his last
5 – WAR COMMANDER – TLRSP# +9 – maybe too big a pop – regression is possible
1 – RIVER’S GAMBLE – SIM FAV with the top SIM SP#
4 – REAL CONVICTION – pacesetter with the highest average race
Race 4 – 6 ½ Furlongs – Early Speed, Inside Out
Terry’s Picks
3 – I Believe in Magic: Finished in the money in the last 6 races, winning 2 races; Likes the distance.
4 – Sundria: Likes PARX Racing, finishing in the money in 57% of the races, winning 19% of the starts; Can handle the distance, finishing in the money in 66% of the races, winning 20% of the starts.
6 – Spirited Ride: Won last race at PARX Racing; Highest last race speed rating; Strong trainer and jockey stats.
Longshot:
2 – So Swell: Drops in class today; High %winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
1 – Solemn Oath
5 – Mollewantacracker
Terry’s Suggested Wager:
$.50 Pick 4: 2,3,4,6 /1,6/2,6,7,8/3,6,8 – Cost $48.00
Rich’s Picks
3 – I BELIEVE IN MAGIC – just missed in her last and ITM 3/3 on an off track – most upside
6 – SPIRITED RIDE – TLRSP# +8 back in March – tr +3.79 ROI off long breaks
4 – SUNDRIA – only dropper with better EP/FRACTIONS
5 – MOLLEWANTACRACKER – YES horse – best race in last 10 was off the break like today
Rich’s Suggested Bet:
$0.50 Pick 4: 3,4,6/5,6,7/3,6/1,3,4,6,8
Race 5 – 1 Mile 70 Yards – Early Speed, Rail and 8+ Best
Terry’s Picks
6 – The Tire Man: Won last race at PARX Racing; Drops in class today; Strong trainer stats.
1 – Mission Artemis: Rail post is winning at 21% clip; Has a high % winning trainer who wins 30% in the 2nd race after claim.
5 – Sincerito: Ran 2nd vs similar in last race; Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters High % winning trainer.
Longshot:
2 – Deportivo: Strong trainer and jockey stats.
Alternate:
4 – Evasive Moves
Rich’s Picks
5 – SINCERITO – most upside in the race – big pop or drop in 2nd up – biggest edge +6 LS
6 – THE TIRE MAN – Top TOTAL PACE – decent work between races jy/tr winner 2/2 -drops
7 – DESERT AIRE – SIM FAV could be on the pace w/ best PAR+
1 – MISSION ARTEMIS – tough call over the 2 – on the lead – biggest drop and better C ZONE
Rich’s Suggested Bet:
$5 Exacta Key Box: 5/1,6,7
Race 6 – 1 Mile 70 Yards – Early Speed, Rail and 8+ Best
Terry’s Picks
6 – Vino Dominus: Early speed running style helps chances; Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters; Strong trainer and jockey stats.
8 – Tiztimonial: Finished 3rd in last race; Highest last race speed rating (tie).
2 – Thomas Benjamin: Trainer who wins 25% dropping claim; Can go the distance.
Longshot:
7 – Will’s Music: Finished in the money in the last 2 races out of the last 3 starts; Longer distance offers hope for improvement.
Alternate:
3 – Easter Blessing
5 – Munyhungry
Rich’s Picks
6 – VINO DOMINUS – lone YES and track dropper with most upside
3 – EASTER BLESSING – SIM FAV and top TOTAL PACE – should be forward
7 – WILL’S MUSIC – biggest in race edge of 1 ½ lengths LS
8 – TIZTIMONIAL – tough call over the 2 – but maybe vs no – signs of life vs horrible race
Rich’s Suggested Bet:
$5 Exacta Key Box: 6/3,7,8
Race 7 – 6 ½ Furlongs – Early Speed, Inside Out
Terry’s Picks
8 – Ahsad: Has won 36% of the races during his career; Strong trainer and jockey stats.
6 – Carbonite: Drops in class today; Early speed running style helps chances; Strong jockey stats.
3 – Capital Conquest: Won last race at PARX Racing; Has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
1 – Always Gambling: Finished 3rd vs similar in last race; Rail post is winning at 20% clip.
Alternate:
4 – Nicole’s King
7 – Asmodeus
Terry’s Suggested Wager:
$.50 Pick 4: 1,3,4,6,8/2,3,6,8/3/4,5,6,8,9 – Cost $50.00
Rich’s Picks
1 – ALWAYS GAMBLING – most upside – with best SIM SP# and rides the strong rail
3 – CAPITAL CONQUEST – Maybe Pacesetter – SIM FAV – TOTAL PACE – C ZONE – cuts back
4 – NICOLE’S KING – TLRSP# + 6 – has more upside – lone P
6 – CARBONITE – should be on the pace with the 3 – 5 ways better – drops and Sanchez
Rich’s Suggested Bet:
$0.50 Pick 4: 1,3,4,6/3,6,8/3,6/4,5,8,9
Race 8 – 1 Mile – Early Speed, Rail and 8+ Best, 4-7 Fair
Terry’s Picks
6 – Sole Lute: Finished 3rd vs tougher in last race; Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters; Drops in class today.
2 – Brother Energy: Finished 2nd vs similar in last race as the favorite; The high % winning trainer wins 35% with beaten favorites; Has a high % winning jockey.
3 – Mor Cheese Please: Trouble last racer; Strong trainer and jockey stats.
Longshot:
8 – Everything Orly: Bumped start in debut race effecting his finish; Drops in class today; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
5 – Tregetour
7 – Spring St. Dreamer
Terry’s Suggested Wager:
$20.00 Win: 6
$10.00 Exacta Box: 2/6
$10.00 Exacta: 6/2,3,8
$5.00 Exacta Box: 2,3,6
Rich’s Picks
6 – SOLE LUTE – only YES is a must have and look at the Speed Chart
3 – MOR CHEESE PLEASE – track dropper – could be lone E
8 – EVERYTHING ORLY – 2nd race upside – catches Paco and MSW dropper
2 – BROTHER ENERGY – more upside in just the 3rd start
Best Bet of the Day
Race 8 – #6 Sole Lute
#6 Sole Lute is Terry’s Best Bet of the Day at PARX Racing.
Sole Lute comes into the race after finishing third against tougher company and now gets class relief. His best dirt speed is the fastest in the field, and Rich’s analysis reaches the same horse from another direction, identifying Sole Lute as the only YES horse in the race and pointing to the Speed Chart as another major positive.
Terry and Rich independently landing on #6 Sole Lute makes Race 8 one of the strongest points of agreement on today’s card.
Race 9 – 1 Mile 70 Yards – Early Speed, Rail and 8+ Best
Terry’s Picks
3 – It’s Authentic: Ran 2nd in last race; Strong trainer and jockey stats; Good 5F workout (Aug-08).
6 – Smallchangegeep: Finished 3rd in last race; Switches to a high winning jockey; Good 4F workout (Aug-08).
7 – King Barou: Likes PARX Racing, finishing in the money in 72% of the races, winning 14% of the starts; Can handle the distance, finishing in the money in 100% of the races.
Longshot:
8 – Quetzal Island: Ran 2nd in last race at PARX Racing, winning the previous race; Strong trainer and jockey stats.
Alternate:
4 – No Mor Stones
5 – Brentwood
Rich’s Picks
6 – SMALLCHANGEGEEP – only Maybe vs all no – 3rd up and 2nd at Parx after track dropping
3 – IT’S AUTHENTIC – super consistent – highest AVG race and SIM SP# – Top TOTAL PACE
4 – NO MOR STONES – SIM FAV – just missed in last with a bullet work between races
7 – KING BAROU – tough call over the rest – more consistent – ITM 5/7 at PARX
Rich’s Suggested Bet:
$5 Exacta Key Box: 6/3,4,7,8
Race 10 – 7 Furlongs – Early Speed – Inside Out
Terry’s Picks
5 – Enforcer: Finished 3rd vs similar in last race; Highest speed figure at today’s distance; Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters; High %winning trainer and jockey.
6 – Adios Jersey: Ran 2nd in last race at PARX Racing; Drops in class today; Strong trainer stats.
4 – Action Hero: Switches to a high % jockey; Drops in class today.
Longshot:
8 – Mission First: Ran 2nd vs similar in last race; Highest last race speed rating; Has a high % winning trainer.
Alternate:
9 – Cojelo Pa Ti
1 – Lord Winsalot
Rich’s Picks
9 – COJELO PA TI – most upside and drops as SIM FAV
5 – ENFORCER – Top TOTAL PACE and SIM SP# – best PARX class
8 – MISSION FIRST – TLRSP# +4 – has more upside – could also regress
4 – ACTION HERO – standout C ZONE in wide open race – needs to rebound in 2nd up
