Nine races at Parx today, and Rich is looking to keep the momentum rolling after connecting on two of four Pick 4 tickets yesterday.
The track is fast, but don’t let that fool you.
A pair of maiden races loaded with first-time starters could make the multi-race sequences and vertical wagers a lot trickier than they appear on paper. Pick 3s, Pick 4s, Pick 5s and exactas can turn quickly when an inexperienced horse takes a bigger step forward than the betting public expects.
That makes today another good card to put Smart Sheets to work.
We’ll be looking for hidden contenders, comparing first-time starters against the experienced runners, identifying projected pace advantages and finding the races capable of creating the biggest separation between winning and losing tickets.
The goal remains the same: find the speed, understand the race shape, identify the horses that fit—and make sure the price justifies the play.
The toughest races often create the biggest opportunities.
Let’s get to work at Parx.
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Race 1 – 1 Mile 70 Yards – Early Speed, All Solid Except 2/3
Terry’s Picks
4 – Fromanothamutha: Won 2 races in a row going for hat trick; Drops in class today; Strong trainer and jockey stats.
1 – Legal Deal: Likes PARX Racing, finishing in the money in 58% of the races, winning 26% of the starts; Can handle the distance, finishing in the money in 50% of the races, winning 20% of the starts.
3 – Praetorian Guard: Ran 2nd vs tougher in last race; Drops in class today; Highest speed figure at today’s distance; Strong trainer and jockey stats.
Longshot:
8 – Bob John Ray: High % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternates:
5 – Fast Bob
2 – Marty’s Magic
Terry’s Suggested Wager
$.50 Pick 4: 1,3,4,5,8/1,3,4,6,7/2,6/3,5 – Cost $50.00
Rich’s Picks
1 – LEGAL DEAL – drops and tops for SIM SP# and Total Pace
2 – MARTY’S MAGIC – most upside – SIM FAV with top PAR+ and better EP/F
8 – BOB JOHN RAY – win 3 of 4 at the distance including 2 back at Parx 5/1-0-0
7 – INMORTAL J – standout C ZONE – better EP/F and 2nd up
Rich’s Suggested Wager
$0.50 Pick 4: 1,2,7,8/3,4,7/2,6/1,2,3,4
Race 2 – Female – 5½ Furlongs – Early Speed – 50% w2w – Rail and 8+ Best
Terry’s Picks
4 – Turning to Gold: Ran 2nd vs similar in only start; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
7 – Betty Sue: Ran 2nd vs similar in only start; Highest last race speed rating; Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters.
1 – Olympic Dreamer: 2nd as favorite last out; high % winning trainer wins 23% with beaten favorites; Rail post is winning at 27% clip; Strong trainer and jockey stats.
Longshot:
3 – Ginster: High % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternates:
6 – Six of Spades
5 – She’s a Gray
Terry’s Suggested Wager
$.50 Pick 4: 1,3,4,7/1,2,3,6/3/1,2,5,6,7,8 – Cost $48.00
Rich’s Picks
7 – BETTY SUE – 2nd race parability on Track Drop
4 – TURNING TO GOLD – 2nd best 2nd race parability
3 – GINSTER – 7/5 favorite in debut – Paco goes here and gets off the the …
1 – OLYMPIC DREAMER – pacesetter potential with best published work between races
Rich’s Suggested Wager
$0.50 Pick 4: 3,4,7/2,6/1,2,3,4/2,5,7,8
Race 3 – 6 Furlongs – Early Inside Speed
Terry’s Picks
2 – Ready as Ever: Won 2 races in a row going for hat trick; Strong trainer and jockey stats.
6 – Tough Guy Tony: Ran 2nd vs similar in last race; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey; Good 4F workout (Aug-19).
3 – Okie Den Den: Ran 2nd in last race; Highest last race speed rating; Strong jockey stats.
Longshot:
1 – Bala de Plata: 2nd as favorite last out; high % winning trainer wins 31% with beaten favorites; Strong trainer and jockey stats; Good 4F workout (Aug-19).
Alternate:
7 – Play the Gray
Rich’s Picks
2 – READY AS EVER – SIM FAV, top SIM SP#, TOTAL PACE and C ZONE – Ness/Sanchez
6 – TOUGH GUY TONY – on the pace – drops – 3 SP# Increases before sidelining – good works – Paco
3 – OKIE DEN DEN – ITM 11/12 at the distance 8/18 at any other – better 5 ways and drops
1 – BALA DE PLATA – YES Ness horse – but appears to prefer an off track
Rich’s Suggested Wager
$1 Pick 3: 2,6/1,2,3/2,5,7,8
Race 4 – Female – 6 Furlongs – Early Inside Speed
Terry’s Picks
3 – Call Me Andy: Won last race; Highest last race speed rating; Strong trainer and jockey stats.
5 – Slim Slow Slider: Has a high % winning trainer and jockey; Blinkers added today.
1 – Charbonnay: Won 2 races out of the last 3 starts; Strong trainer and jockey stats.
Longshot:
2 – Altobelli: Won last race; Can go the distance.
Alternate:
4 – Soze
Terry’s Suggested Wager
$.50 Pick 4: 1,2,3,5/2,5,7,8/4,7/1,3,4 – Cost $48.00
Rich’s Picks
1 – CHARBONNAY – biggest in race edge + 3 lengths LS – tied most upside
3 – CALL ME ANDY – Sanchez and Ness – better early Fractions and LP – strong C ZONE
2 – ALTOBELLI – on the pace with 5 sp# increases – SIM FAV
4 – SOZE – Yes horse with the 1 and tied for most upside – could be lone E
Rich’s Suggested Wager
$0.50 Pick 4: 1,2,3/2,5,7,8/2,7/1,4,7,8
Race 5 – Female – 5½ Furlongs – Early Speed – 50% w2w – Rail and 8+ Best
Terry’s Picks
2 – Welovemollynteddy: First time starter whose Dam has 1 winner from 2 starters; Strong trainer and jockey stats.
5 – Philly Girl: First time starter who has a good 4F workout (Aug-19); Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
7 – Yourownspecialway: First time starter whose Dam has 2 winners from 3 starters; Strong trainer and jockey stats; Good 4F workout (Aug-19).
Longshot:
8 – Scottish Prize: First time starter whose Dam has 6 winners from 6 starters; Strong trainer and jockey stats.
Alternates:
6 – Quality Spring
1 – Miss Novie
Rich’s Picks
5 – PHILLY GIRL – first timers in order with workouts as the tie breaker
2 – WELOVEMOLLYNTEDDY
7 – YOUROWNSPECIALWAY
8 – SCOTTISH PRIZE
Rich’s Suggested Wager
$0.50 Trifecta Box: 2,5,7,8
Race 6 – Female – 1 Mile 70 Yards – Early Speed, All Solid Except 2/3
Terry’s Picks
4 – Legal Lightning: Ran 2nd vs similar in last race; high % winning trainer wins 30% trainer when taking a horse from a Sprint-Sprint-Route.
7 – Maddie’s Garden: Finished in the money in 3 out of the last 4 races, winning 2 races; Drops in class today; Has a high % winning trainer.
6 – Spastic Bid: Finished 3rd vs similar in last race; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
2 – Medium Cool: Won 2 of last 4; drops in class; strong trainer/jockey stats.
Alternate:
8 – Always in Play
Terry’s Suggested Wager
$.50 Pick 4: 2,4,6,7/1,3,4,7/2,3,4,5,6,7/1 – Cost $48.00
Rich’s Picks
2 – MEDIUM COOL – maybe too much ES with a 2 length edge – tied most upside
7 – MADDIE’S GARDEN – only YES horse – Top SIM SP#, TOTAL PACE – tied upside with 2
4 – LEGAL LIGHTNING – 3 SP# increases with TLRSP# +6 for Ness
8 – ALWAYS IN PLAY – SIM FAV and biggest drop
Rich’s Suggested Wager
$0.50 Pick 4: 2,4,7,8/1,4,7,8/2,5,6/1,5
Race 7 – 5½ Furlongs – Early Speed – 50% w2w – Rail and 8+ Best
Terry’s Picks
1 – Bishops Gate: First time starter; Rail post is winning at 27% clip; Strong trainer and jockey stats.
3 – Schubert Sonata: Finished in the money in 1 out of 3 races at PARX Racing; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
4 – Hurricane Mo: Finished in the money in 3 out of the last 4 races; Drops in class today; Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Longshot:
7 – Joke Teller: First time starter; Strong trainer and jockey stats.
Alternate:
7 – Joke Teller
Rich’s Picks
7 – JOKE TELLER – first timers in order with edge to workouts – 1 exception
1 – BISHOPS GATE
8 – CANNONBURY
4 – HURRICANE MO – Class and Track Dropper from NYRA – but regressing form
Race 7 Comparison
This is one of the more interesting disagreements between Terry and Rich on today’s card.
Terry’s Top Pick: #1 Bishops Gate
Terry puts the first-time starter on top. The rail is winning at a strong 27% clip, and Bishops Gate brings strong trainer and jockey statistics into the debut.
Rich’s Top Pick: #7 Joke Teller
Rich goes directly to another first-time starter, putting Joke Teller ahead of Bishops Gate based primarily on his first-time-starter evaluation and workout edge.
That gives us an interesting maiden race where Terry and Rich agree on two important horses — #1 Bishops Gate and #7 Joke Teller — but reverse their order.
Rich also introduces #8 Cannonbury, a horse Terry does not have among his primary selections.
Race 8 – Female – 6 Furlongs – Early Inside Speed
Terry’s Picks
3 – Shetalkstomuch: Finished in the money 3 out of the last 4 races; Highest speed figure at today’s distance; Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
5 – Snappy Ride: 2nd last out; strong trainer/jockey stats; likes distance.
4 – Little Cocoa Bean: Likes PARX Racing, finishing in the money in 60% of the races, winning 27% of the starts; Can handle the distance, finishing in the money in 45% of the races, winning 18% of the starts.
Longshot:
6 – Misspent: Throw out the last race as she had a lot of trouble affecting her finish; Ran 2nd in the previous race; Highest last race speed rating (tie).
Alternates:
7 – Pearls and Heels
2 – Mila Rose
Rich’s Picks
2 – MILA ROSE – all or nothing at Parx 8/4-0-0 – won 4 in row – Top TOTAL PACE +8 – 2nd up
6 – MISSPENT – big SP# move in last and tends to pair them
5 – SNAPPY RIDE – Sanchez and Pino winning at nearly 50% – that’s crazy
4 – LITTLE COCOA BEAN – tough call over the rest – leader +5 EP with solid C ZONE – lone drop
Rich’s Suggested Wager
$5 Exacta Key Box: 2/1,4,5,6
Race 8 – Terry vs. Rich
This is an excellent race to demonstrate why looking at both sets of picks can uncover horses that might otherwise be missed.
Terry prefers #3 Shetalkstomuch, based on her consistency, strong distance figure and top Dirt Speed.
Rich goes in a completely different direction with #2 Mila Rose. The Smart Sheets case is compelling: Top TOTAL PACE by eight points, four consecutive Parx victories and a potentially favorable second-up situation.
One horse both handicappers find interesting is #6 Misspent. Terry makes her the Longshot, while Rich ranks her second. That makes Misspent particularly interesting if the betting public allows a price.
Agreement Horses: #5 Snappy Ride, #4 Little Cocoa Bean and #6 Misspent.
Major disagreement: Terry’s #1 is #3 Shetalkstomuch, while Rich’s #1 is #2 Mila Rose.
Race 9 – 1 Mile 70 Yards – Early Speed, All Solid Except 2/3
Terry’s Picks
1 – The Fridge: Ran 2nd in last race; Rail post is winning at 21% clip; Strong trainer and jockey stats.
4 – Little Sneckdraw: Finished in the money 3 out of the last 4 races; Drops in class today; Can improve while returning to Dirt.
2 – Gunman Jayvo: Best Dirt speed is close to the Avg Winning Speed.
Longshot:
5 – Lucky Capo: Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters; Has a trainer who wins 20% of the races with a horse after 46-90 days Away.
Alternates:
6 – Ur Honey
8 – Irish Warrior
Terry’s Suggested Wager
$20.00 Win: 1
$10.00 Exacta Box: 1/4
$10.00 Exacta: 1/2,4,5
$5.00 Exacta Box: 1,2,4
Rich’s Picks
1 – THE FRIDGE – Parx 4/0-4-0 – SIM SP# +7 and Top TOTAL PACE +7 – standout C ZONE
5 – LUCKY CAPO – only YES horse = must have
6 – UR HONEY – moving up the speed ladder – only 5 ways better and drops
8 – IRISH WARRIOR – maybe a crazy pick – biggest dropper and trainer has 2 wins in 39 races – both of them on moving down multiple classes like today
Rich’s Suggested Wager
$5 Exacta: 1/4,5,6,8
Best Bet of the Day
Race 9 – #1 THE FRIDGE
Terry’s Best Bet of the Day at PARX Racing is #1 The Fridge.
This is also one of the strongest Terry/Rich agreement horses on the entire card.
Terry puts The Fridge #1, and Rich also makes him his top selection.
The Fridge has finished second in all four of his starts at Parx, so the obvious question is whether we’re dealing with a horse that likes to finish second rather than win. But today’s setup gives him another legitimate opportunity to finally break through.
Rich’s Smart Sheets numbers strengthen the case considerably.
SIM SP# +7
Top TOTAL PACE +7
Standout C ZONE
Add the inside post and Terry’s strong trainer/jockey statistics, and there are several independent reasons pointing toward the same horse.
The biggest concern is obvious: four Parx starts and four second-place finishes.
But if The Fridge converts those strong underlying numbers into a winning effort, today could finally be the day he stops knocking on the door and walks through it.
Terry & Rich – Strongest Agreement Horses
Several horses stand out because Terry and Rich independently landed on the same runners.
Race 2 – #7 Betty Sue
Terry’s second choice and Rich’s top selection.
Race 3 – #2 Ready as Ever
Both Terry and Rich make him their #1 selection. Rich also has him as the SIM favorite with top SIM SP#, TOTAL PACE and C ZONE.
Race 4 – #3 Call Me Andy
Terry’s top pick and Rich’s second choice.
Race 5 – #2 Welovemollynteddy / #5 Philly Girl
Terry and Rich have the same four primary horses, although they disagree on the order.
Race 6 – #7 Maddie’s Garden
Terry’s second selection and Rich’s second selection. Rich calls her the only YES horse and gives her top SIM SP# and TOTAL PACE.
Race 7 – #1 Bishops Gate / #7 Joke Teller
Both handicappers use the two first-time starters but reverse their order.
Race 8 – #6 Misspent
Terry’s Longshot becomes Rich’s second selection, making her an intriguing price horse.
Race 9 – #1 The Fridge
The strongest late-card agreement: #1 for Terry and #1 for Rich.
Today’s Final Board
BEST BET – Race 9 #1 THE FRIDGE
The strongest combination of Terry/Rich agreement and Smart Sheets support. Both make him their top selection, while Rich has the SIM SP#, TOTAL PACE and C ZONE all pointing in the same direction.
STRONG WIN – Race 3 #2 READY AS EVER
Another Terry #1/Rich #1 agreement horse. He’s seeking his third consecutive victory, while Rich has him as the SIM favorite with top SIM SP#, TOTAL PACE and C ZONE. Ness/Sanchez adds another positive.
VALUE PLAY – Race 8 #6 MISSPENT
This is where comparing Terry and Rich becomes especially useful. Terry identifies Misspent as his Longshot, but Rich likes her enough to rank her second overall. If the public treats her like Terry’s longshot rather than Rich’s major contender, that’s exactly the kind of discrepancy worth investigating at post time.
LONGSHOT – Race 7 #7 JOKE TELLER
Terry labels the first-time starter his Longshot, but Rich goes much further and makes Joke Teller his #1 horse in the race. That’s one of the most interesting Terry/Rich differences on today’s card.
Terry’s Best Bet
Race 9 – #1 THE FRIDGE
Rich’s Strongest Win Candidate
Race 3 – #2 READY AS EVER
Best Terry/Rich Agreement
Race 3 – #2 READY AS EVER
Best Price Opportunity
Race 8 – #6 MISSPENT
Longshot to Watch
Race 7 – #7 JOKE TELLER
If I Had to Pick Just One Horse Today
Race 3 – #2 READY AS EVER
Even though #1 The Fridge is Terry’s official Best Bet, Ready as Ever may present the cleanest overall handicapping case.
Terry has him first.
Rich has him first.
He’s won two straight and is going for the hat trick.
And Rich’s Smart Sheets analysis gives him:
SIM Favorite
Top SIM SP#
Top TOTAL PACE
Top C ZONE
That is a lot of important information pointing toward the same horse.
