It’s Money Monday at Parx, and today’s 10-race card looks built for one of our favorite Parx handicapping angles: inside speed.
Nine of the ten races are sprints, with just one route mixed in, and the Profile of a Winner tells us that horses with early speed and favorable inside positioning have the edge.
Of course, knowing the profile is one thing. Finding the horses capable of taking advantage of it—and getting the right price—is another.
That’s where Smart Sheets comes in.
Terry and Rich will dig into:
- Projected first-call leaders
- % Chance to Lead
- SIM Speed and Speed Edge
- Early, Mid, Late and Total Pace
- C-Zone and PAR
- SIM Odds versus the Morning Line
- Horses whose running style and post fit the winning profile
- Potential overlays and vulnerable favorites
With nine sprints, today’s card should give us plenty of opportunities to test the theory. Who gets forward, who gets the right trip, and who has enough left when they turn for home?
Then we’ll turn those opinions into Pick 4s, Exacta Key Boxes, Terry’s Best Bet, Benny and the Bets and more.
Fast track. Nine sprints. Inside speed with the advantage.
Sounds like Money Monday at Parx. Let’s get to work.
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Race 1
6 1/2 Furlongs – Early Inside Speed
Terry’s Picks
9 – Week’s Strong: Highest last race speed rating; high % winning trainer wins 18% of the races in the 2nd start after claim; Strong jockey stats.
8 – Lorden’s Pride: Won last race; Strong trainer and jockey stats.
1 – We Miss Neil: Won last race; Rail post is winning at 21% clip; Strong trainer stats.
Longshot:
6 – Designed by Smarty: Won 2 races out of the last 3 starts; Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).
Alternates:
7 – Whoosh
4 – Basin Bay
Rich’s Picks
1 – WE MISS NEIL – on the pace on the rail – better EP/Fractions and drops
6 – DESIGNED BY SMARTY – on the pace as well with 1 – most upside
9 – WEEK’S STRONG – TLRSP# +3 – could be better in 3rd up
4 – BASIN BAY – a little more upside than the rest
Rich’s Suggested Wager
$5 Exacta Key Box: 1/4,6,9
Race 2 – Female
6 1/2 Furlongs – Early Inside Speed
Terry’s Picks
3 – Craving Carbs: Early speed running style helps chances so the shorter distance is a plus; high % winning trainer and jockey.
6 – Bective Abbey: Finished in the money in 3 out of 5 races at PARX Racing, winning 1 race; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
7 – California Smoke: Has a high % winning trainer 30% in the 2nd race after claim; Can go the distance; Blinkers added today.
Longshot:
5 – Breezefromtheeast: Highest last race speed rating; Trainer wins 22% of the Sprints; Strong trainer and jockey stats.
Alternates:
2 – Rosie Warrior
8 – Noulikeabook
Terry’s Suggested Wager
$.50 Pick 4: 2,3,5,6,7/4,5/1,3/2,3,4,5,7 – Cost $50.00
Rich’s Picks
5 – BREEZEFROMTHEEAST – TLRSP#+7 and Top TOTAL PACE +5
2 – ROSIE WARRIOR – YES horse with inside speed +6 ES – most upside
6 – BECTIVE ABBEY – only with better EP/Fractions and biggest dropper
3 – CRAVING CARBS – Sanchez and Pino – winning at 42% – ranks well across all scores
Rich’s Suggested Wager
$0.50 Pick 4: 2,3,5,6/4,5,7/1,2,3,7/4,7
Race 3
5 1/2 Furlongs – Early Speed, Rail and 8+ Best
Terry’s Picks
5 – Little Lance: Beaten only 1-1/2 lengths vs tougher in last start; Drops in class today; Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters; Strong trainer stats.
4 – Sophia’s Prince: Won 22% of the starts at PARX Racing; Drops in class today.
7 – Clever Tiger: Ran 2nd vs similar in last race; Can go the distance.
Longshot:
2 – Omaha Eight: Has a high % winning trainer and jockey; Can handle the distance.
Alternates:
1 – Big Brown Shoes
3 – Chip’s Friend
Rich’s Picks
7 – CLEVER TIGER – could be on the pace – Standout C ZONE
5 – LITTLE LANCE – has the most upside – and Top TOTAL PACE
4 – SOPHIA’S PRINCE – only better EP/Fractions and drops – forward too
1 – BIG BROWN SHOES – rail – more consistent than the rest
Race 4
6 1/2 Furlongs – Early Inside Speed
Terry’s Picks
3 – Possum: Finished in the money in 2 out of the last 3 races; Highest speed figure at today’s distance; Strong trainer and jockey stats.
1 – Captain Fancy: Rail post is winning at 21% clip; Early speed running style helps chances; Can go the distance.
2 – Chubasco Sauce: Finished in the money in 6 out of the last 8 races, winning 2 races; Strong trainer and jockey stats.
Longshot:
6 – Docsgotallthecandy: 2nd as favorite last out; high % winning trainer wins 25% with beaten favorites; Early speed running style helps chances so the shorter distance is a plus.
Alternate:
7 – King Deivys
Terry’s Suggested Wager
$.50 Pick 4: 1,2,3,6/2,3,4,5/5,6/1,2,7 – Cost $48.00
Rich’s Picks
2 – CHUBASCO SAUCE – better EP/Fractions and biggest dropper
7 – KING DEIVYS – biggest in race edge +11 LP – heavy SIM FAV
3 – POSSUM – Paco on the 3rd up with top TOTAL PACE with most upside
1 – CAPTAIN FANCY – the inside speed horse – could pop in 2nd up
Rich’s Suggested Wager
$0.50 Pick 4: 2,3,7/4,7/4,6,8/2,5,6,7,8
Race 5
6 Furlongs – Early Inside Speed
Terry’s Picks
4 – Starlord: Finished 3rd vs tougher in last race; Highest last race speed rating; Drops in class today; Strong trainer and jockey stats.
5 – Bourbon Aficionado: Ran 2nd in last race; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
3 – Adios Jersey: Strong trainer and jockey stats; Can handle the distance.
Longshot:
2 – One Improbable: Highest speed figure at today’s distance; Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Alternates:
7 – Star Man Bob
6 – Onlygodcanjudgeme
Rich’s Picks
4 – STARLORD – TLRSP#+6 – tied for the biggest drop – Top TOTAL PACE – standout C ZONE
7 – STAR MAN BOB – if speed is the way today – pacesetter
5 – BOURBON AFICIONADO – is the top closer and could have some betting value
2 – ONE IMPROBABLE – most upside in – 3rd ups have been an issue – inside speed
Rich’s Suggested Wager
$1 Pick 3: 4/4,6,8/2,5,6,7,8
Race 6 – Female
6 1/2 Furlongs – Early Inside Speed
Terry’s Picks
5 – Lady Catalina: Likes PARX Racing, finishing in the money in 100% of the races, winning 10% of the starts; Can handle the distance, finishing in the money in 43% of the races; winning 14% of the starts.
6 – Miss Tifeye: Ran 2nd in last race; Has a high % winning trainer; Can go the distance.
8 – Sugar Princess: Finished 3rd in last race; Highest last race speed rating; Can improve at the shorter distance.
Longshot:
4 – No Mo Muffins: Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternates:
2 – Astrid
1 – Alyvia Mavis
Rich’s Picks
8 – SUGAR PRINCESS – TLRSP#+3 and SIM SP# edge +6 – standout C ZONE
4 – NO MO MUFFINS – only YES horse = must have, most upside – on the pace and drops
6 – MISS TIFEYE – should be better in 2nd Parx run after track dropping from Oaklawn
2 – ASTRID – consistently ranks higher than the rest
Race 7
1 Mile – Early Speed, Mostly Fair with Rail and 8+ Getting a Bonus
Terry’s Picks
2 – Smallchangegeep: Won last race at PARX Racing; Highest last race speed rating; Drops in class today; high-% jockey.
7 – Imperial Spy: Likes PARX Racing, finishing in the money in 83% of the races, winning 33% of the starts; Can handle the distance, finishing in the money in 50% of the races.
8 – Extrasexymcsteemee: Finished in the money in 2 out of the last 3 races; Has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
5 – Kuz It’s Chilly: Finished in the money in 5 out of 6 races, winning 1 race; Has a high % winning Trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
6 – Iron Sharpens Iron
Terry’s Suggested Wager
$.50 Pick 4: 2,5,7,8/2,3/2,4/1,3,5,7,8,10 – Cost $48.00
Rich’s Picks
2 – SMALLCHANGEGEEP – TLRSP#+6 and could have more in 3rd at Parx after NYRA drop
5 – KUZ IT’S CHILLY – SIM FAV, Top SIM SP# and Top TOTAL PACE
7 – IMPERIAL SPY – super consistent – big closer and class dropper
8 – EXTRASEXYMCSTEEMEE – could get away with an easy lead vs all closers
Rich’s Suggested Wager
$0.50 Pick 4: 2,5,7/2,3/1,2,4,6/3,5,8,9
Race 8
6 Furlongs – Early Inside Speed
Terry’s Picks
3 – Spidey Man: Won 4 races out of 6 career starts; Drops in class today; Strong trainer and jockey stats.
2 – Parker Boone: Won his only race at PARX Racing by 12-lengths; Drops in class today; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
6 – Respighi: Ran 3rd in last race; Strong trainer and jockey stats.
Longshot:
5 – Smoked Bourbon: Won 1 race out of 2 career starts; Has a high % winning trainer who wins 20% when using 1st time Lasix; Strong trainer and jockey stats.
Alternates:
4 – Onceinawhile
1 – Wave Rider
Rich’s Picks
2 – PARKER BOONE – Only YES horse – on the lead 1st Lasix and won lone Parx by 12
3 – SPIDEY MAN – Jamie Ness Track dropper – TLRSP# +6 and Top TOTAL PACE +9
6 – RESPIGHI – biggest in race edge of a length LS
5 – SMOKED BOURBON – another with ES and 1st Lasix – 3rd race bounce back
Rich’s Suggested Wager
$1 Pick 3: 2/1,2,4,6/3,5,8,9
Race 9 – Female
6 1/2 Furlongs – Early Inside Speed
Terry’s Picks
2 – More Than Grace: Won 6 races in a row; Highest speed figure at today’s distance; Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters; Has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
4 – Rock Me Gently: Likes PARX Racing, finishing in the money in 81% of the races, winning 19% of the starts; Can handle the distance, finishing in the money in 80% of the races; winning 20% of the starts.
1 – Irish Banba: 3rd as favorite last out; high % winning trainer wins 31% with beaten favorites; Has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
6 – Sister Eve: Finished 3rd vs tougher in last race, winning the 2 previous races; Drops in class today; Strong trainer and jockey stats.
Alternates:
7 – I Am Rue
3 – Jump a Fox
Terry’s Suggested Wager
$20.00 Win: #2 More Than Grace
$10.00 Exacta Box: 2/4
$10.00 Exacta: 2/1,4,6
$5.00 Exacta Box: 1,2,4
Terry’s Best Bet of the Day
Race 9 – #2 More Than Grace
More Than Grace comes into this race looking for an impressive seventh consecutive victory. She owns the highest speed figure at today’s distance, has the fastest Best Dirt Speed in the field and is backed by a high-percentage trainer and jockey.
The Smart Sheets add even more support to Terry’s Best Bet. Rich has #2 More Than Grace on top as well, identifying her as the horse with the most upside by a decent margin, the SIM favorite and the Top Total Pace horse.
This is one of the strongest Terry-Rich agreements on the entire card.
Rich’s Picks
2 – MORE THAN GRACE – most upside by a decent margin – SIM FAV and Top TOTAL PACE
6 – SISTER EVE – strongest closer by a decent margin – right distance winner 3/5 else 3/31
1 – IRISH BANBA – Ness Horse that can fire 1st up
4 – ROCK ME GENTLY – on the pace with Paco and Top C ZONE
Race 10
6 1/2 Furlongs – Early Inside Speed
Terry’s Picks
3 – Pastero: Finished in the money in 2 out of the last 3 races; Can go the distance.
5 – Disco Rhodes: Has a high % winning trainer 26% in the 2nd start with trainer; Good 4F workout (Aug-19).
1 – Tiz the Coast: Rail post is winning at 21% clip; trainer wins 27% of races when taking a horse from a Sprint-Route-Sprint; Early speed running style helps chances so the shorter distance can help.
Longshot:
8 – Stormbreaker: Early speed running style helps chances; Best Dirt Speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Alternates:
7 – Thomas Benjamin
10 – Tiztimonial
Rich’s Picks
8 – STORMBREAKER – maybe -1 – all others no – pace and C ZONE edge – most upside
3 – PASTERO – biggest in race advantage of 1 1/2 lengths
5 – DISCO RHODES – toss the last – stopped and has a strong work since
9 – CHILLING TIME – TLRSP#+5 and tied for the biggest drop
Rich’s Suggested Wager
$5 Exacta Key Box: 8/3,5,9,10
Best Bet of the Day
Race 9 – #2 More Than Grace
Terry’s Best Bet: #2 More Than Grace
There is a lot to like here from both Terry’s traditional handicapping and Rich’s Smart Sheets numbers.
More Than Grace enters on a six-race winning streak and already owns the strongest Best Dirt Speed in the field. Terry also points to the highest speed figure at today’s distance and the strong trainer-jockey combination.
Rich reaches exactly the same conclusion from the Smart Sheets.
SIM Favorite.
Top Total Pace.
Most upside by a decent margin.
When Terry’s handicapping and Rich’s Smart Sheets both point this strongly toward the same horse, that gets our attention.
#2 More Than Grace is Terry’s Best Bet of the Day at Parx Racing.
Terry & Rich – Final Board
| Category | Horse | Race | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Terry’s Best Bet | #2 More Than Grace | 9 | Six straight wins, top dirt speed and excellent agreement with Smart Sheets |
| Strong Consensus Play | #4 Starlord | 5 | Terry #1 and Rich #1; TLRSP +6, Top Total Pace and standout C-Zone |
| Smart Sheets Must-Have | #2 Parker Boone | 8 | Rich’s only YES horse; Terry ranks him second after a 12-length Parx win |
| Value Horse | #4 No Mo Muffins | 6 | Terry’s Longshot and Rich’s only YES horse with the most upside |
| Longshot to Watch | #8 Stormbreaker | 10 | Terry’s Longshot becomes Rich’s #1 with pace, C-Zone and upside advantages |
| Early-Speed Play | #2 Smallchangegeep | 7 | Terry and Rich both rank him #1; TLRSP +6 and further upside possible |
Horse I’d Lean on Most
If I had to choose one horse on the entire Parx card to lean on, it would be:
Race 9 – #2 More Than Grace
The six-race winning streak is impressive by itself, but what makes her particularly attractive today is that the supporting factors continue to line up rather than suggesting regression.
Terry has her as his Best Bet, while Rich independently puts her first with SIM Favorite, Top Total Pace and the most upside by a decent margin.
She is the clearest Terry-Rich consensus horse on today’s card and the horse I would build around most heavily.
