Parx Full Card Tips, Analysis and Suggested Wagers
$100 Challenge – Suggested Wagers for Parx on a $100 Budget
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: Horseshoe Indianapolis
Parx Picks and Comments
Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapping
Race 1
6 – Assume Control – She drops in class today; her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters, and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
2 – Show Some Skin – She finished 3rd vs similar in her last race and has a high % winning trainer who wins 18% of the races in dirt starts.
3 – Kenai Cool – She finished 3rd vs similar in her last race, has the highest last race speed rating and has high % winning jockey Paco Lopez.
Longshot:
1 – Halligirl – She drops in class today and the rail post is winning at a 20% clip.
Alternate:
5 – Leviosa
4 – Hey Dewzpots
Bet: $2.00 DD: 2,6/6
Race 2
6 – Enraged – He has finished in the money in his last ten races, winning the three of the races and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
4 – Souper Fly Over – He ran 2nd vs tougher in his last race, drops in class today has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).
1 – Tactical Plan – He drops in class today; the rail post is winning at a 21% clip and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).
Longshot:
3 – Empire’s Score – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race and his early speed should help.
Alternate:
2 – Samurai Saint
5 – Illustrious
Bet: $.50 Pick 4 –2nd race #6 – 3rd race #2,4,5,6 – 4th race ##1,3,4,5- 5th race #5,8,9,10
Bet: $10.00 Win: #6
Race 3
5 – Twirling Wind – She drops in class today, will improve while returning to dirt and has the highest speed figure at today’s distance.
4 – Miss Chamita – She won her last race at PARX Racing and has a high % winning trainer who in the last 14 days has this record (6 2-2-0).
2 – Without a View – She likes the track finishing in the money in 66% of the starts, winning 17% of the races and likes the distance finishing in the money in 60% of the starts, winning 13% of the races.
Longshot:
6 – Speightster’s Gold – She ran 2nd vs similar in her last race, has a high % winning trainer and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Alternate:
3 – Tonala
Bet: None
Race 4
5 – Dial for Love – She switches to high % winning trainer Jamie Ness who wins 34% of the races in the first race after claiming a horse, switches to a high % winning jockey and a good 5F workout 0nJun-10.
3 – Wicked Sight – She is a first-time starter whose Dam has 3 winners from 5 starters, has a high % winning trainer and jockey and this combo in the last 14 days has this record (6 2-1-2).
1 – Leggs – She drops in class today; the rail post is winning at a 22% clip, and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
4 – My Hunny Bunny – She has the highest last race speed rating and has the 2nd highest Prime Power Number: 102.6.
Alternate:
3 – Social Rebel
6 – Kate’s Cuban Kiss
Bet: – $.50 Pick 4 – 4th race #1,3,4,5- 5th race # 5,8,9,10 – 6th race #6 – 7th #1,2,4
Race 5
8 – Sovereign Change – He ran 2nd in his last race as the favorite but has a high % winning trainer who wins 21% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again and has a high % winning jockey who in last 7 days has this record (12 6-2-0).
10 – Dalton – He finished 3rd vs similar (on Dirt) in his last race and has the highest last race speed rating.
5 – Mr. Einstein– He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race and has a high % winning trainer and jockey and this combo in the last 14 days has this record (6 2-1-2).
Longshot:
9 – Mega Charlie – He has finished in the money in eight out of his last ten races, winning three and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
2 – Marathoner
Bet: $0.50 Trifecta Box: 5,8,9,10
Race 6
6 – Shiny Penny – She comes in from Charles Town after running 2nd vs tougher in her last race beaten only a neck, drops in class today and has a high % winning jockey.
5 – Seamialaugh – She drops in class today, has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
3 – Anginetti – She won her last race at PARX Racing and has a high % winning trainer.
Longshot:
2 – Boca Royalty – She finished 3rd vs similar in her last race.
Alternate:
7 – Smooth as Glass
4 – Mrs. Crews
Bet: None
Race 7
2 – Mischievous Jones – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race, has the highest last race speed rating and has a high % winning jockey who in the last 7 days has won three out of six starts.
4 – Jokemeister – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race, his early speed running style helps chances and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
1 – Lucky as a Seven – He finished 3rd vs tougher in his last race and the rail post is winning at a 20% clip.
Longshot:
3 – Cousin Andrew – He has the highest speed figure at today’s distance.
Alternate:
6 – Vero Sun
Bet: $.50 Pick 4 – 7th #1,2,4- 8th race # 1 – 9th race # 5- 10th # 2,3,4,10
Race 8
1 – Sophos – He won his last race at PARX Racing; the rail post is winning at a 20% clip and has a good trainer/jockey combo who in the last 14 days has this record (3 2-1-0).
2 – One Slick Start – He drops in class today, has a high % winning trainer, switches to a high % winning jockey and this combo in last 14 days has won two out of four starts.
6 – Just a Thought – He drops in class today, has trainer who wins 50% of the races when dropping a horse down 2+ classes and can improve while returning to a sprint.
Longshot:
3 – Nine Toe Johnny – He drops in class today and has Sofia Vives in the irons.
Alternate:
4 – Catch My Vibe
Bet: $2.00 DD: 1/5
Bet: $10.00 Win: #1
Race 9
5 – Peachy Weachy – She came in from Gulfstream Park and won her first race at PARX Racing and has a high % winning trainer and switches to a high % winning jockey.
7 – Chelsea Wall – She traveled to Penn National and won a race and returns to PARX Racing, has a high % winning trainer and jockey and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
3 – Miss Peppina – She has won four races out of eleven starts at PARX Racing, has a high % winning trainer who has won three out of his six starts.
Longshot:
4 – Broad Jumper – She has finished in the money in six races out of six starts, winning two of the races.
Alternate:
6 – Mercy Mercy
2 – Lindalovesgold
Bet: None
Race 10
3 – Boat’s a Rockin – He has finished in the money in eight races out of nine starts, winning four of the races and his best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters.
10 – Tough Tickets – He won his last race at PARX Racing and has a good 4F workout on June 10th.
2 – Lease – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race, has a high % winning trainer and switches to a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
4 – Offshore Affair – He has a high % winning trainer and a high % winning jockey and has the highest speed figure at today’s distance.
Bet: None
Rich’s Ranks
Race 1: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed – 34% w2w – PP: Inside 3 Bias, 4-7 Discount, 8+ Close to Fair
3 – KENAI COOL – TLRSP#, better 2/4f pace#s and fractions at 6 1/2f v 6
2 – SHOW SOME SKIN – Parx 5/0-2-2 and one of the strongest C-Zones
6 – ASSUME CONTROL – class dropper making the 3rd start after a layoff, maybe most upside
5 – LEVIOSA – sneaky class dropper from 5k nw2 – should be pace setter with top C-Zone
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Trifecta: 2,3/2,3,6/1,2,3,5,6
Race 2: 7 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed – 31% w2w – PP: Strong Inside Out Bias
6 – ENRAGED – has a +12 total pace edge, TLRSP# by a decent margin and drops, lone PC
4 – SOUPER FLY OVER – ran better fractions last out and was better ATB
3 – EMPIRE’S SCORE – likely pacesetter, could be lone E, dangerous if the fractions are right
2 – SAMURAI SAINT – 1st off the claim, 23% for tr Elliott Soto-Martinez, pace#s better ATB
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Pick 4: 4,6/2,4,6/1,3,5/2,8,10
Race 3: 7 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed – 31% w2w – PP: Strong Inside Out Bias
6 – SPEIGHTSTER’S GOLD – TLRSP# with better times at 1m70y vs 1m – not sure cut back help
4 – MISS CHAMITA – big race last out at 1m70y – weight break, but distance 5/0-0-1
2 – WITHOUT A VIEW – if she can run back two and break to the front, runs more confidently, pace #suggest she’ll be close to the front – distance 12/2-0-6
5 – TWIRLING WIND – pretty good drop in class to a level where she was competitive – Parx 18/0-1-6
Suggested Wager: $1 Exacta Key Box: 2/4,5,6
Race 4: 5 ½ Furlongs – Bias: 50/50 – 32% w2w – PP: Strong Inside 3 Bias, 4-7 Penalizes, 8+ Fair
3 – WICKED SIGHT – Bullet and go, and the one before it was good, and the one before that…
5 – DIAL FOR LOVE – comes in from Laurel off the claim for Jamie Ness, has some EP too
1 – LEGGS – MSW dropper, was well bet in debut, rides the hot rail, showed EP
6 – KATE’S CUBAN KISS – showed some giddy up in debut, going up in class
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Pick 4: 3,5/2,7,8,10/5,8/2
Race 5: 1 Mile 70 yards Turf – Bias: 1 Race won w2w from 4-7
8 – SOVEREIGN CHANGE – 3rd off a break, Parx Turf 3/2-1-0 – last race better than the winning effort in the prior start
10 – DALTON – SIM says he is an overlay as the lone P horse – has early speed, but fortunately not too much speed to the inside – +5 Total Pace edge
2 – MARATHONER – just ¾ lengths from winning both when Rueben Silvera rode – he’s on again
7 – HASHTAG NO WONDER – tough call over the 5, but track dropper with top pedigree, slightly over the 1, Distance 8/1-2-4
Race 6: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed – 37% w2w – PP: Fairish 1-7, 8+ Bonus
5 – SEAMIALAUGH – dropping in class to the lowest level in the last 10
8 – LULINDA’S HEART – strange drop in class, maybe a new condition opened up?
3 – ANGINETTI – last race looked good on paper, but slower fractions, struggled in last 6 at this level
7 – SMOOTH AS GLASS – does have some early speed, 2nd at this level last out
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Trifecta: 5,8/2,3,5,7,8/3,5,8
Race 7: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed – 34% w2w – PP: Inside 3 Bias, 4-7 Discount, 8+ Close to Fair
2 – MISCHIEVOUS JONES – lone PC, should sit behind the speed and try to run by at the end
4 – JOKEMEISTER – likely pacesetter with strong SIM for EP and C-Zone combo, Parx 11/0-1-3
1 – LUCKY AS A SEVEN – lowest level in last 10, consistent performer, strong rail, but Parx 5/0-0-1
3 – COUSIN ANDREW – 1st off claim 20% for 16% winning tr Juan Guerrero, ITM with jy Jaime Torres at 80% with 1.24 ROI
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Pick 4: 2,4/1,2,3/2,5/2,3,10
Race 8: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed – 34% w2w – PP: Inside 3 Bias, 4-7 Discount, 8+ Close to Fair
1 – SOPHOS – tr Hugo Padilla 2/2 when keeping in claiming ranks off the win, likes Parx 18/6-3-2
2 – ONE SLICK START – distance 5/1-2-2, last race better than it looks with faster fractions, drops in class
3 – NINE TOE JOHNNY – left arrow horse, gets a weight break with Sofia, won with ease at this level
7 – STAY HYDRATED – should be at least close to the front, the remaining two weren’t anywhere near
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Trifecta: 1,2,3/1,2,3/2,3,10
Race 9: 7 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed – 31% w2w – PP: Strong Inside Out Bias
5 – PEACHY WEACHY – claim and drop, aggressive move, but $55k purse and a win makes it very profitable
2 – LINDALOVESGOLD – early speed, gets 1st Lasix, usually a good combo, some fast works getting ready for first race since January in NGSTK
7 – CHELSEA WALL – Ness/Silvera – usually coming at the end, wonder if 7f is too short?
4 – BROAD JUMPER – top Total Pace horse in the race, by a little, dis beat the 7 when they met, overlay
Suggested Wager: $1 Double: 2,5/2,3,10
Race 10: 1 Mile Turf – Yesterday was 1st race – won by a closer from 8 post
3 – BOAT’S A ROCKIN – lone EP with a +7 EP edge, Kendrick on a speed horse in lone mount, 3rd off the bench with two maintenance works between races
10 – TOUGH TICKETS – tied with the 3 for top Pedigree number, has a couple of good works between race, passed the 3 at 7 ½ furlongs last out, going longer should help
2 – LEASE – Parx Grass 5/2-2-1, the third start after a layoff, PACO rides
4 – OFFSHORE AFFAIR – Ness/Silvera – BTN FAV last out in first run at Parx, flipping to turf for a horse that was facing much tougher at tier 1 tracks
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Trifecta: 2,3,10/3,10/2,3,4,8,10
