Parx Full Card Tips, Analysis and Suggested Wagers
$100 Challenge – Suggested Wagers for Parx on a $100 Budget
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: Turf Paradise
Parx Horse Racing Picks and Comments
Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapping
Race 1
1 – Rose Legacy – She ran 2nd vs similar in her last race, has the highest last race speed rating and has a high % winning jockey who in the last 7 days has this record (15 4-2-3).
3 – Pearlbdancing – She finished 3rd vs similar in her last race and has a good 4F workout on Feb-08.
2 – Yellow Dress – She drops in class today, has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Longshot:
7 – Nana’s Boopa – She has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
6 – Bella Maria
5 – Frieder Fanatic
Bet: $1.00 DD: 1,2,3,6,7 / 4
Race 2
4 – Mystic Link – He drops in class today and has a jockey who in the last 7 days has this record (19 6-3-4).
2 – French Toast – He has an early foot and will try to lead all the way to the finish line, so his early speed running style helps chances and has the highest last race speed rating (tie).
7 – In Equality – He has won seven races at PARX Racing and drops in class today.
Longshot:
3 – Curlin’s Thrill – He finished 3rd in his last race and has the highest last race speed rating (tie).
Alternate:
5 – E T’s Super Star
Bet: – $.50 Pick 4 – 2nd race #4- 3rd race # 1,2,3- 4th race # 2,3- 5th race #1,2,3,4,5,6,7
Bet: $10.00 Win # 4
Race 3
1 – Kerness – He drops in class today; his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and is trained by Jamie Ness and ridden by jockey Ruben Silvera.
2 – DeSantis – He drops in class today and has the highest last race speed rating.
3 – Chip’s Friend – He drops in class today and he has a high % winning trainer who wins 33% of the races when using 1st time Lasix.
Longshot:
6 – Doctor Magic – He drops in class today.
Alternate:
4 – Bubby Papermaker
Bet: None
Race 4
3 – Exit Right – He finished 3rd in his last race, has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
2 – Ron Don Scorese – He has finished in the money in six out of eight races at PARX Racing, winning two of the races and can handle the distance.
4 – Silver Edge – He has won two out his last four races and has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
1- Crafty Don – He won his last race at PARX Racing; the rail post is winning at 24% clip and he has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
6 – Willy Mc
5 – Off the Meds
Bet: None
Race 5
4 – Cabra Chica – She has finished in the money in three out of five races at PARX Racing, drops in class today and has a good 4F workout of Feb-08.
7 – Nothins Free – She drops in class today, has the highest last race speed rating, the highest speed figure at today’s distance and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).
2 – Kenai Cool – She finished 3rd vs similar in last race.
Longshot:
5 – Penance – She has won eleven out of thirty-six races and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).
Alternate:
6 – Anginetti
3 – Smooth as Glass
Bet: None
Race 6
4 – Shadow Chaser – He finished in the money in his last three races, has the highest last race speed rating and has a 5F workout on Feb-08.
6 – Blackwater Falls – He finished 2nd in his last two races and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
3 – Runnin Joke – He can improve with Lasix & Blinkers added.
Longshot:
2- Run for Karl – He has a high % winning trainer and Lasix is added.
Alternate:
5 – Show Em the Lights
1 – Ecliptical David
Bet: $.50 Pick 4 – 6th race #3,4,6 – 7th race # 2,3,6 – 8th race # 1,4,5 – 9th race #12
Race 7
2 – My Coralena – She has won two races in a row, going for a hat trick, has a high % winning trainer and the distance will not be a problem.
3 – Tribord – She drops in class today and has a high % winning trainer.
6 – Don’t Tell Frankie – She finished 3rd vs similar in last race.
Longshot:
4 – Speightster’s Gold – She has done well at PARX Racing in the past and the distance should not present a problem.
Bet: $10.00 Win # 2
Bet: $5.00 Exacta: #2 – 1,3
Race 8
4 – Decoupage – She won her last race at Laurel and has a trainer who in the last 14 days has this record (11 4-1-2).
5 – Nurturing – She won her last race at PARX Racing, has the highest last race speed rating, drops in class today and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
1 – Take Charge Erica – She won her last race at PARX Racing and has a high % winning trainer.
Longshot:
2 – Akemi – She won her last race at PARX Racing.
Alternate:
3 – Spanikopita
6 – Enchanting Way
Bet: $.50 Pick 4 – 8th race #1,4,5 – 9th race # 3,5,12 – 10th race # 1,6 – 11th race #5,9
Race 9
12 – Loverboy Lou – He has finished in the money in six out of his last seven races at PARX Racing, winning four of the races and finishing 2nd in his last race.
3 – Passage of Lines – He won his last race at PARX Racing and has a high % winning jockey.
5 – Manolete – He has won two out of the last four races.
Longshot:
11 – Cajun Lover – He won his last race at PARX Racing and has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
14 – Rudy Rod
2 – Fielder
Bet: $10.00 Win # 12
Race 10
1 – Dreaming of Gerry – He ran 3rd in his last race, the rail post is winning at 24% clip and has a trainer who wins 25% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again.
6 – Liam’s Blue Moon – He has won three out of the last five races and has a high % winning jockey.
3 – Abuelo Nuno – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race and has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
2 – Will E Sutton – He won his last race at PARX Racing.
Alternate:
4 – Good Culture
5 – Kodapendent
Bet: None
Race 11
9 – Angelofthegalaxy – She finished 3rd vs tougher in her last race, drops in class today and has the highest last race speed rating.
5 – Bet On Drama – Her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and has a high % winning jockey.
1 – Scarlet’s Song –The shorter distance may help and her best dirt speed is faster than the Avg winning speed.
Longshot:
6 – College Try – She drops in class today and can improve while returning to a sprint.
Alternate:
4 – Ruby Dooby Doo
Bet: None
Rich’s Ranks:
Race 1: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Stalker – 31% w2w – PP: Rail, 4-7 Fair, 2/3 Under Par, 8+ Bonus
1 – ROSE LEGACY – TLRSP# with better late pace in last
2 – YELLOW DRESS – a little better early in last
7 – NANA’S BOOPA – faster through the first ½ mile at 7f v 5 ½ the previous race
5 – FRIEDER FANATIC – sim says there is value, so let’s roll with it
Suggested Wager: $1 Double: 1,2,5,7/2,7
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Pick 5: 1,2,5,7/2,7/1,2/3/3,7
Race 2: 1 Mile 70 Yards – Bias: Tactical Speed – 32% w2w – PP: Strong Rail Bias, 2-7 Fair, 8+ Penalty
7 – IN EQUALITY – hoping bettors pass because of last two, sneaky improvement in last
2 – FRENCH TOAST – TLRSP#, upped his game through the first half mile last out
4 – MYSTIC LINK – Silvera/Ness – you have to consider, but not a fan of Penn shippers at Parx
3 – CURLIN’S THRILL – tie TLRSP# with most LP with a small drop
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Pick 4: 2,7/1,2/3/4,7
Race 3: 7 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed – 45% w2w – PP: Rail Penalty, 2/3 Bonus, 4+ Fairish
2 – DESANTIS – TLRSP# and Drops, his best has been much better than the best of the experienced horses
1 – KERNESS – last race was a little better than the prior start, especially late
3 – CHIP’S FRIEND – tough start in debut, a couple of 3f works since say tr Michael Pino want a better start, if so, 1st Lasix could help him hang on
5 – BEN’S IMAGINE – 1st timer without a lot to beat after the first three
Suggested Wager: $2 Trifecta: 2/1/3/6
Race 4: 1 Mile 70 Yards – Bias: Tactical Speed – 32% w2w – PP: Strong Rail Bias, 2-7 Fair, 8+ Penalty
3 – EXIT RIGHT – faster fractions in 2nd start off the sidelines, TLRSP#, maybe faster in round three off the break
6 – WILLY MC – went win, win, 4th, win, win, 4th – does that mean he wins again to keep the pattern intact.
4 – SILVER EDGE – going to make a big move heading into the turn, classic 3rd after a layoff, 3rd was by far best in the last 3 race cycle
1 – CRAFTY DON – strong at the distance 7/0-2-4, we saw the rail win the opener at this distance yesterday, jy Mychel Sanchez hitting at 24% with early speed horses
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Pick 4: 3/4,7/2,3,4/3
Race 5: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Stalker – 31% w2w – PP: Rail, 4-7 Fair, 2/3 Under Par, 8+ Bonus
4 – CABRA CHICA – left arrow horse, drops to her lowest level in last 10, decent work between starts
7 – NOTHINS FREE – better ATB in last with slightly better fractions, TLRSP# and drop
2 – KENAI COOL – a lot of late improvement in last was some back speed in the PPs too, maybe
5 – PENANCE – tough call over the 6, but has fared better versus some of these
Suggested Wager: $1 Double: 1,2,5,7/2,7
Race 6: 7 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed – 45% w2w – PP: Rail Penalty, 2/3 Bonus, 4+ Fairish
2 – RUN FOR KARL – lone E, +13 EP advantage through 4f, 1st Lasix, 2 maintenance works since last race – 10-1 confuses me
4 – SHADOW CHASER – TLRSP#, moving up from MCL 10k, Parx 2/0-1-1 with a decent work between starts too
3 – RUNNIN JOKE – lone MSW to MCL dropper, top pedigree score in the race
6 – BLACKWATER FALLS – 2 seconds in 2 Parx races, Z pattern in last effort
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Pick 4: 2,3,5/3/5/ALL
Race 7: 1 1/16 Miles – Bias: 7 Races – Closers – 2 w2w – Rail Bonus, 2/3 Under Par, 4-7 Big Penalty, 8+ Super Sized
Bonus
3 – TRIBORD – likely tone setter with best combo of EP/LP
2 – MY CORALENA – is three 2nds by a neck from winning five of the last six
6 – DON’T TELL FRANKIE – beat the 4 Last out
4 – SPEIGHTSTER’S GOLD – should be able to beat the 7
Suggested Wager: $1 Superfecta: 3/2/6/4
Race 8: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Stalker – 31% w2w – PP: Rail, 4-7 Fair, 2/3 Under Par, 8+ Bonus
5 – NURTURING – something is wrong if she goes off at 8/5 with a +15 EP/LP edge
4 – DECOUPAGE – big number off the bench, possible improvement in round two and drop
1 – TAKE CHARGE ERICA – 1 or 1 at PARX, resume says either major improvement or major regression coming in the 2nd start after a layoff
2 – AKEMI – left arrow horse, closed to win her last race but has smoking fast 2/4 EP #s
Suggested Wager: $1 Double: 5/ALL
Race 9: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Stalker – 31% w2w – PP: Rail, 4-7 Fair, 2/3 Under Par, 8+ Bonus
3 – PASSAGE OF LINES – Silvera/Ness – staying in the claiming ranks off a win -32% angle for Ness
11 – CAJUN LOVER – Should get a good trip as an EP horse with enough early speed to be well positioned
4 – HARD WEST –overlay in SIM – so we’ll take him following two maintenance works since his last race
12 – LOVERBOY LOU – 3rd race after a layoff, a consistent beginning to end performer
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Trifecta: 3,4,11/3,4,11/1,3,4,5,11,12
Race 10: 1 Mile 70 Yards – Bias: Tactical Speed – 32% w2w – PP: Strong Rail Bias, 2-7 Fair, 8+ Penalty
6 – LIAM’S BLUE MOON – +8 2f and + EP at 4 f – 2 for 2 on a fast Parx track
1 – DREAMING OF GERRY – PARX 3/2-0-1, Distance 5/2-1-1, maybe ups his game in round 2 off the break
4 – GOOD CULTURE – deceptively better race than it looks based of fractions
5 – KODAPENDENT – 15 point late pace advantage – question is the pace here might not be too hot
Suggested Wager: $1 Double: 6/1,5,7,8,9
Race 11: 5 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed – 33% w2w – PP: Rail Penalty, 2/3 Bonus, 4-7 Penalty, 8+ Fair
5 – BET ON DRAMA – 3rd off the break, last 3rd race in the cycle was the best – big benefit from 2 scratching
9 – ANGELOFTHEGALAXY – could be lone E, TLRSP#, Drops, but tends to fade
8 – WILD KEYLIMAR – another lightly raced horse, so we don’t know if she has upside whereas a lot of the others have a lot of chances to win
1 – SCARLET’S SONG
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Trifecta: 5,8,9/5,9/1,5,7,8,9
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