PARX Full Card Tips, Analysis and Suggested Wagers
$100 Challenge – Suggested Wagers for PARX Racing on a $100 Budget
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: Turf Paradise
Parx Picks and Plays
Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapping
Race 1
5 – Look Out Lambo – He ran 2nd vs tougher in his last race, drops in class today and has a high % winning trainer and jockey, the combo in last 14 days has won four out of five starts.
4 – Mission Oberon – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race at PARX Racing, winning the previous race.
3 – In Equality – He drops in class today, has a high % winning trainer and jockey and has the highest speed figure at today’s distance.
Longshot:
6 – Son of a Saint – He won his last race at PARX Racing and likes the distance.
Alternate:
7 – Runningforhome
2 – Private Network
Bet: $1.00 DD: 3,4,5,6/ 1,7
Race 2
7 – Londonderry – She finished 3rd vs similar in her last race, switches to a high % winning trainer who in the last 14 days has won four races out of eight starts.
1 – Sugar Streak – She finished 2nd in her last two races, the rail post is winning at 22% clip and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
4 – Not a Trace – She drops in class today and has the highest speed figure at today’s distance.
Longshot:
5 – Brody Slam – She won her last race at PARX Racing and has the highest last race speed rating (tie).
Alternate:
3 – Just Stay Home
Bet: $.50 Trifecta: 1,4,7/1,4,7/1,4,5,7
Race 3
6 – Shiftinggears – He won his last race at PARX Racing, was well bet in that debut and Lasix is added.
5 – Minxzhippsdontleye – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race, has the highest last race speed rating, has a high % winning trainer and jockey and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
4 – Ryan’s Fleet – He drops in class today and his early speed running style helps chances.
Longshot:
1 – Runnin Joke – He drops in class today and has a high % winning jockey.
Bet: $1.00 Pick 3: 6/1,2,4,5 /4,8,9
Race 4
5- Baton – He finished 7th in his last race after being bumped at the start and coming into the stretched 4 – wide, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie) and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
1 – Moon Warrior – He has finished in the money in his last four races, winning two and the rail post is winning at a 22% clip.
2 – Mutasallem – He won his last race at PARX Racing and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
4 – Simovitch – He switches to a high % winning jockey, may improve at the shorter distance and he has a good 5F workout on Mar-03.
Alternate:
7 – Celtic Heart
Bet: $.50 Pick 4 – 4th race #1,2,4,5 – 5th race # 4,7,8,9- 6th race # 3,4,5 – 7th race #6
Race 5
4 – Flight – She ran 2nd vs similar in her last race, has a high % winning trainer and should improve while returning to a sprint.
8 – Road to Dreams – She was well bet in her debut race and won it at PARX Racing and then took a 6-month break but has a good 4f ft :48 B 4/56 on Feb15.
9 – Angelofcanterbury – She has a high % winning trainer, drops in class today, the highest last race speed rating and a good 4F workout on Mar-05.
Longshot:
7 – Old Head – She won her last race at PARX Racing and has a high % winning trainer and jockey who in the last 14 days has this record (5 2-1-0).
Alternate:
5 – Bay and Gold
2 – Arrogante
Bet: None
Race 6
3 – Elusive Ryder – She finished 3rd vs similar in her last two races and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
4 – Mani Pedi – She has finished in the money 44% of the time at PARX Racing, winning 22% of the starts, drops in class today and likes the distance.
5 – Canoochee – She won her last race at PENN National and has won previously at today’s distance.
Longshot:
2 – Lula’s Roadrunner – She switches to a high% trainer and has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
1 – Valerie First
Bet: None
Race 7
6 – Irish Exit – He won his last race at Aqueduct, has a high % winning trainer and jockey and this combo in the last 14 days has this record (5 2-1-0).
7 – Senior Investment – He drops in class today; has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
1 – Nautilus –He has won two out of three races at PARX Racing, drops in class today and the rail post is winning at 22% clip.
Longshot:
4 – Ron Don Scorese – He finished 3rd in his last race and the trainer in last 14 days has finished in the money seven out of eight starts, winning three of the starts.
Alternate:
3 – Vasariano
2 – Midnight Act
Bet: $.50 Pick 5 – 7th race #1,6,7- 8th race # 3,4,5,8 – 9th race # 3,5 – 10th race #1 – 11th #3’7
Race 8
8 – Mitropanos – He finished 3rd in his debut start at PENN National and has a good 4F workout Mar-02.
5 – Liberty for All – He is a first-time starter whose Sire wins 18% of the races with 1st time Starters, breeding suits today’s sprint distance and he has a bullet 3F workout (Mar-01).
3 – Holy Moly Moses – He is a first-time starter whose Dam has 1 winner from 1 starter.
Longshot:
4 – Threepete – He is a first-time starter whose Dam has 1 winner from 2 starters and the breeding suits today’s sprint distance.
Alternate:
7 – Nicky Da Fox
Bet: – $.50 Pick 4 – 8th race # 3,4,5,8 – 9th race # 3,5 – 10th race #1 – 11th #2,3,4
Race 9
3 – Glory Song – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race, has a high % winning trainer who wins 30% of the races when taking a horse from a sprint to route and the trainer/jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (6 2-1-2).
5 – The King Cheek – He has won three out of eight races at PARX Racing and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
7 – Celtic Treasure – He finished 3rd in his last race and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
8 – El Hermano – He won his last race at PARX Racing.
Alternate:
2 – Yes Sir Colonel
4 – Kodapendent
Bet: None
Race 10
1 – Ifihadachance – She has finished in the money in her last five races, winning the last three races and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
7 – R Tenderoni – She has finished in the money in her last four races, winning two of the races and has trainer Jamie Ness.
6 – Beach Daze – She ran 2nd vs tougher in her last race, drops in class today and has the highest last race speed rating.
Longshot:
3 – Tiz a Sharpie – She finished 3rd in her last race and has the highest speed figure at today’s distance.
Alternate:
9 – Fine One Won
8 – Ami’s Link
Bet: $10.00 Win #1 – Bet: $1.00 DD: 1/ 1,2,3,4
Race 11
4 – Gia’s Fuego – She drops in class today and she has the highest last race speed rating.
3 – J J Loves Billy – She drops in class today and has a high % winning trainer who wins 22% of the races when taking a horse down 2+ classes.
2 – Smooth as Glass – She has a trainer who wins 22% of the Claiming races he has a horse entered in and should improve at the shorter distance.
Longshot:
1 – Kenai Coo – She finished 3rd vs similar in last race.
Alternate:
6 – Let’s Celebrate
Rich’s Ranks
Race 1: 1 Mile – Bias: Early Speed – 54% w2w – PP: Big Rail Edge, 2/3 Plus, 4+ a Little Under Par
7 – RUNNINGFORHOME – last race better than it might look, same fractions at 1m70y vs 7f
5 – LOOK OUT LAMBO – better EP numbers and times at 1m70y vs 1m, cut in distance helps here
2 – PRIVATE NETWORK – too much of an EP edge to pass
3 – IN EQUALITY – drops in class, won and 2nd by a neck the last pair he ran at this level
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Pick 5: 2,3,4,7/1,7/4,5,6/2,5/9
Race 2: 1 Mile 70 Yards – Bias: Tactical Speed – 32% w2w – PP: Big Rail Bump, 2-7 close to Fair, 8+ Major Ding
7 – LONDONDERRY – fist off the claim tr Michael Pino – 22% winner, decent maintenance work since claim – improved 2/4f pace#s in last
1 – SUGAR STREAK – cannot overlook huge rail edge for a horse that upped her game in the last two
5 – BRODY SLAM – been competitive vs many of these, race cycle review says regression here is likely
4 – NOT A TRACE – beneficiary of 2 scratching and should set the tone from the jump
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Trifecta: 1,7/1,4,7/1,3,4,5,7
Race 3: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed – 38% w2w – PP: Little Downgrade Rail, 4-7, all others a Slight Bonus
5 – MINXZHIPPSDONTLEYE – TLRSP# with same times at 7f as 6 1/2f, cut back is the difference maker today
4 – RYAN’S FLEET – looks like big class drop, but was running over his head after maiden win, does have a +9 EP edge to the half mile marker
6 – SHIFTINGGEARS – top LP vs a group where most want to be forwardly placed, won debut with ease and gets Lasix today
1 – RUNNIN JOKE – drops in class – 3rd off the break and 2nd off the claim, 21% angle for tr Guadalupe
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Trifecta: 4,5,6/4,5/1,4,5,6,7
Race 4: 1 Mile 70 Yards – Bias: Tactical Speed – 32% w2w – PP: Big Rail Bump, 2-7 close to Fair, 8+ Major Ding
5 – BATON – is a neck from wining his two at Parx, another could be coming based of recent Parx work
2 – MUTASALLEM – really consistent performer with Parx record 10/2-4-2
1 – MOON WARRIOR – lone P. big fan of Tyler Conner, not so much for Pen Shippers – but the rail has too much of an advantage not to play
3 – BODE O – bullet work right before first race since Jan 11, little weight break
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Pick 4: 2,5/9/3/1,6,7
Race 5: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed – 38% w2w – PP: Little Downgrade Rail, 4-7, all others a Slight Bonus
9 – ANGELOFCANTERBURY – Silvera/Ness, really good workout since last and has a +11 EP/LP edge
5 – BAY AND GOLD – if she can run back to debut, possible with 1st Lasix
8 – ROAD TO DREAMS – crushed a short field in debut way back in August, consistent work pattern since Jan 11 and last was very good
7 – OLD HEAD – Left Arrow horse, Pennington/Servis won 7/18 together, +2.72 ROI, OK work after MCL win in 4th try, tough call over the 4,3
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Trifecta: 5,8,9/5,9/4,5,7,8,9
Race 6: 1 Mile 70 Yards – Bias: Tactical Speed – 32% w2w – PP: Big Rail Bump, 2-7 close to Fair, 8+ Major Ding
3 – ELUSIVE RYDER – considerably better fractions last out and dropping a few pounds here, won the last time she had a similar weight break, tells me tr Danial Velazquez takes pounds off when she is ready
4 – MANI PEDI – was a little better through the first half mile of last
1 – VALERIE FIRST – TLRSP# and rides the hot rail
5 – CANNOCHEE – looks to be in better form than the 2
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Trifecta: 3,4/1,3,4/1,2,3,4,5
Race 7: 1 Mile 70 Yards – Bias: Tactical Speed – 32% w2w – PP: Big Rail Bump, 2-7 close to Fair, 8+ Major Ding
6 – IRISH EXIT – a repeat of the last race would be good enough, some regression likely in round two off
1 – NAUTILUS – last race was a little better than it looks with better times, Parx 3/2-0-0, Distance 5/2-2-0
7 – SENIOR INVESTMENT – decent class drop and has a couple of nice works since his last race
3 – VASARIANO – better pace#s ATB in last, moving up in class
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Trifecta: 1,6,7/1,6/1,3,4,6,7
Race 8: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed – 33% w2w – PP: Rail and 8+ Bonus, 2-7 Almost Fair
5 – LIBERTY FOR ALL – tons of bullet works at GO, 280K work
3 – HOLY MOLY MOSES – like the Feb 21 work of 4f in 48
7 – NICKY DA FOX – sim says forwardly placed and you got to have him
4- THREEPETE – another first times works are OK
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Pick 4: 3,5,7/3/1,6,9/4
Race 9: 1 Mile 70 Yards – Bias: Tactical Speed – 32% w2w – PP: Big Rail Bump, 2-7 close to Fair, 8+ Major Ding
3 – GLORY SONG – Ness 30% sprint to route, TLRSP# with decent work between starts
5 – THE KING CHEEK – ran about a second faster in his last relative to the previous start, maybe better in second off the break
7 – CELTIC TREASURE – recent resume says second start after a layoff could be sizable bump
4 – KODAPENDENT – really consistent performer, dropping in class with a work between outings
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Trifecta: 3,5/3,5,7/3,4,5,7,8
Race 10: 1 Mile 70 Yards – Bias: Tactical Speed – 32% w2w – PP: Big Rail Bump, 2-7 close to Fair, 8+ Major Ding
1 – IFIHADACHANCE – winner 3 in a row, PARX 5/3-1-1, a pair of good works since last race
9 – FINE ONE WON – some issues at the start of her last race, if she breaks sharply, close to the lead she will be formidable
6 – BEACH DAZE – much better 1 mile time last out by more than 2 seconds, PARX 9/3-3-1
7 – R TENDERONI – dropping off the win for Jamie Ness, 25% winner
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Trifecta: 1,6,9/1,9/1,3,6,7,9
Race 11: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed – 33% w2w – PP: Rail and 8+ Bonus, 2-7 Almost Fair
4 – GIA’S FUEGO – improved pace through the first half mile of last – lone P
1 – KENAI COOL – better fractions in last – rail bonus could help
5 – GAVICHI – some EP in a route last out, cutting back in distance should help, 10 pound weight break
3 – J J LOVES BILLY – best of the rest with a chance to rebound in second off the break following a terrible effort
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Trifecta: 1,4/1,4,5/1,2,3,4,5
Parx Way to the Winners’ Circle Worksheet
