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Parx Racing Picks Live – March 6, 2023 – Horse Racing Today

Parx Full Card Tips, Analysis and Suggested Wagers

$100 Challenge – Suggested Wagers for Parx on a $100 Budget

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PARX Horse Racing Picks and Plays

Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapping 

Race 1

5 – Bubby Papermaker – He finished 3rd in his last race and blinkers are added today.

6 – DeSantis – He has the highest last race speed rating, may improve at the shorter distance, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and the trainer/jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (5 2-1-1).

2 – Dreaming of Smarty – He drops in class today, has a high % winning trainer who wins 24% of the races in 1st time maiden special weight races.

Longshot:

4 – Capital Conquest – He has a high % winning jockey and should improve while returning to a sprint.

Alternate:

8 – Finally Captured

3 – Union Park

Bet: $1.00 DD: 2,4,5,6 / 5,6

 

Race 2

6 – Peyton’s College – She has finished in the money in her last three races, winning two of the races and has a high % winning jockey.

5 – Rolls Royce Joyce – She has finished in the money in her last four races, winning one, has a high % winning trainer who wins 27% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again and she has a high % winning jockey.

3 – Titanic Rose – She ran 2nd vs similar in her last race, has a trainer who wins 17% of the races when taking a horse from a route to sprint. 

Longshot:

8 – Shetalkstomuch – She ran 3rd in her last two races and has a trainer who wins 21% in the races in the 2nd raced after claiming a horse.

Alternate:

4 – Carroll Girl

1 – Shutup and Hang On

Bet: $.50 Trifecta: 5,6/3,5,6/3,4,5,6,8

 

Race 3

2 – Hornbeam – He won his last race at PARX Racing; his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie) and has a high % winning and trainer jockey.

4 – Horse Be With You – He drops in class today, has a high % winning and trainer and switches to a high % winning jockey.

8 – Musk – He drops in class today and has a trainer who wins 30% of the races when taking a horse from a route to sprint.

Longshot:

6 – True Dakotan – He ran 2nd vs tougher in his last race, drops in class today and has a high % winning trainer who has won three out of five starts at PARX Racing.

Alternate:

5 – Commissioner Dave

1 – Ante Up Alex

Bet: $1.00 Pick 3 – 3rd race # 2,4,8 – 4th race # 1,8 – 5th race #6,8,10

 

Race 4

1- Darling Donna – She has won two races out of the last three races only losing the middle start of the three races because she lost the rider, she likes PARX Racing and the distance.

8 – Starship Laoban – She has an early foot, finishing in the money in her last nine races, winning three and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.

5 – Tiz Gracie – She ran 2nd vs tougher in her last race, drops in class today, has the highest last race speed rating and has trainer who wins 21% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again.

Longshot:

7 – Broad Jumper – She ran 2nd in her first race back after taking a 2-month break.

Alternate:

6 – Empress Deona

3 – Cause I Said

Bet: – $.50 Pick 4 – 4th race #1,8- 5th race # 6,8,10 – 6th race # 1,4 – 7th race #1,7

 

Race 5

10 – Ronin Warrior – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race and has a jockey who in the last 7 days has finished in the money in five out of nine starts, winning three races.

6 – Kitten Street – His early speed running style helps his chances and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.

8 – Long Gray Line – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race, has the highest last race speed rating (tie) and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.

Longshot:

7 – Open Lengths – He ran 2nd in his last race only losing by a short nose, has a high % winning trainer and jockey.            

Bet: None

 

Race 6

4 – Candy for Carmel – He came in from Southern California and won his first race at PARX Racing and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.

1 – Beachwalker – He has finished 2nd in his last two races and the rail post is winning at a 23% clip.

2 – Hometown Hero – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race, has a high % winning trainer and jockey.

Longshot:

6 – Maxim Moment – He has finished in the money 40% of the time winning 16% of the starts at PARX Racing and at todays’ distance he has finished in the money 50% of the time winning 19% of the starts.

Alternate:

5 – Predominate

3 – Formal Order

Bet: $.50 Pick 4 – 6th race # 1,4 – 7th race # 1,7 – 8th race #3,5- 9th race #8

 

Race 7

7 – Girlfromouterspace – She won two out of her last three races at PARX Racing by closing at today’s distance.

1 – Girl Trouble – She ran 2nd vs similar in her last race after winning the previous three races easily, the rail post is winning at 23% clip, and she has a high % winning trainer who wins 30% of the races when taking a horse from a sprint to sprint to a route.

6 – Social Success –She won her last race at Penn National and comes into PARX Racing to try and make it two in a row, has the highest last race speed rating and switches to a high % winning jockey.

Longshot:

4 – Gold Medal Anna – She has a high % winning trainer, Lasix added and a bullet 5F workout on Feb-27.

Alternate:

3 – Majestic Creed

Bet: $.50 Pick 5 – 7th race #1,7- 8th race # 3,5 – 9th race # 8 – 10th race #4 – 11th #1,2,4

Race 8-Female

5 – Tappin Josie – She has won two races in a row at Laurel and now going for a hat trick, has the highest last race speed rating and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.

3 – Chickieness – She has finished in the money in nine out of ten career races, winning three and finishing 2nd in her last race, has a high % trainer and can improve at the shorter distance.

4 – Empress Ariana – She ran 2nd in her last race and can improve with Lasix & blinkers added.

Longshot:

1 – Dream Chaser – She won her last race at PARX Racing, has a high % winning trainer and jockey.

Alternate:

2 – Broadwaycharlyrose

Bet: $.50 Pick 4 – 8th race # 1,3,4,5 – 9th race # 4,8 – 10th race #1,4,6,7- 11th race #1,2

 

Race 9

8 – No Confession – He has won two races in a row at PARX Racing and now going for a hat trick and has a high % winning jockey.

4 – Prove Right – He comes in from Aqueduct, drops in class today, switches to a high % winning jockey and has a trainer who wins 38% of the races he takes a horse from a Sprint-Route-Sprint.

9 – El de Chimi – He had plenty of trouble in his last race should do better here..

Longshot:

1 – John Dutton – He won his last race at PARX Racing and has a high % winning trainer.

Bet: $6.00 Win # 8

 

Race 10

4 – Blue Royal – He has finished in the money in three out of four career races, winning one, has a high % winning trainer and can improve at the longer distance.

6 – Time to Cruise – He came in from Laurel Park after winning the last race to try PARX Racing, has a high % winning trainer, switches to a high % winning jockey and the trainer/jockey combo in last 14 days has finished in the money in 100% of the races winning 50% of the races.

1 – Ninetyprcentmaddie – He drops in class today, the rail post is winning at a 23% and he has a high % winning trainer.

Longshot:

7 – Jackson Road – He finished 3rd in his last race at PARX Racing, has the highest last race speed rating and a high % winning trainer.

Bet: None

 

Race 11

1 – Go for the Kill – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race and has a high % winning trainer.

2 – Texas Basin – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race, has a high % winning trainer who wins 27% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again.

4 – Mo Ready – He finished 2nd in his last race only losing by a neck and earned the highest last race speed rating.

Longshot:

6 – Hope for Gold – He has won two out of his last four races at PARX Racing.

Alternate:

8 – Gushing Oil

9 – Healy’s Hope

Rich’s Ranks

Race 1: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed – 35% w2w – PP: 1-7 Mostly Fair, 8+ Bonus

6 – DESANTIS – has a +10 EP/LP – a little better fractions last out at 7f vs 6f

2 – DREAMING OF SMARTY – has a major EP edge through the first ½ mile – 1st Lasix could help hold it longer

5 – BUBBY PAPERMAKER – ran one of the better SP# in his debut – won’t take much of an upgrade to get this one

4 – CAPITAL CONQUEST – best race was debut, maybe first off the bench here might be a rebound race

Suggested Wagers: $0.50 Trifecta: 2,5,6/2,6/2,4,5,6,7

 

Race 2: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed – 38% w2w – PP: Rail Discount, 2/3 Bonus, 4-7 Discount, 8+ Bonus

6 – PEYTON’S COLLEGE – is just a neck from winning all three at Parx after coming from Kentucky

5 – ROLLS ROYCE JOYCE – Left Arrow horse – beat top pick three back, a little better early and late in her last

7 – OUT DANCING – lone P horse – last race was better than it looks on paper, especially early

2 – SCINTILLATING STAR – tough call over the 4, moving up in class off the claim, tr Richard Vega 22% off the claim

Suggested Wagers: $0.50 Pick 4: 5,6/2/1,8/4,6,7,8

 

Race 3: 1 Mile 70 Yards – Bias: Tactical Speed – 33% w2w – PP: Rail and Inside 3 Bias, 4-7 Fair, 8+ Major Penalty

2 – HORNBEAM – TLRSP# in first race for tr Michael Pino – maybe better in 2nd off the sidelines

3 – MISCHIEVOUS JUAN – Left Arrow horse making his third start after a layoff

6 – TRUE DAKOTAN – was better ATB In last, the last time he did the same thing, followed it up with a better race

4 – HORSE BE WITH YOU – tr Mario Dominguez moves to jy Mychel Sanchez here, they are 2/2 together

Suggested Wagers: $1 Trifecta: 1/3,4,5,6/3,4,5,6

 

Race 4: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed – 35% w2w – PP: 1-7 Mostly Fair, 8+ Bonus

1 – DARLING DONNA – won first race back after getting hurt in first race coming from southern Cali

8 – STARSHIP LAOBAN – Ness/Silvera 3rd off the break but gave up the lead to the 1 last out

7 – BROAD JUMPER – probably should not be here, but catches a field with a lot of speed and has a +13 LP edge, will run past tired legs

5 – TIZ GRACIE – hasn’t run since May, works are OK, catches a weight break, back class is there but probably going to need one

Suggested Wagers: $0.50 Pick 4: 1,8/4,6,7,8,10/4,6/1

 

Race 5: 1 Mile 70 Yards – Bias: Tactical Speed – 33% w2w – PP: Rail and Inside 3 Bias, 4-7 Fair, 8+ Major Penalty

6 – KITTEN STREET – candidate to improve in his second off the break

8 – LONG GRAY LINE – TLRSP#, is this winning distance 6/33 only 1/33 at any other

7 – OPEN LENGTHS – better ATB in fresh run after 3 months in the barn, maybe better in round two

4 – MUCHO MACHO EDDIE – lone P horse that should get a good trip

Suggested Wagers: $0.50 Trifecta: 6,7,8/6,8/4,6,7,8,10

 

Race 6: 1 Mile 70 Yards – Bias: Tactical Speed – 33% w2w – PP: Rail and Inside 3 Bias, 4-7 Fair, 8+ Major Penalty

4 – CANDY FOR CARMEL – won his first after coming from SA and nice work since ain’t going off at 3-1

6 – MAXIM MOMENT – huge bump last out, either a new level or regression here

1 – BEACHWALKER – more of a gimmick horse – Parx 5/0-2-1, distance 11/1-1-6, rail could help

2 – HOMETOWN HERO – 2 SP# increases, better ATB in last, maybe additional 70 yards helps

Suggested Wagers: $0.50 Pick 4: 4,6/1/3,4,5/1,4,8

 

Race 7: 1 Mile 70 Yards – Bias: Tactical Speed – 33% w2w – PP: Rail and Inside 3 Bias, 4-7 Fair, 8+ Major Penalty

1 – GIRL TROUBLE – Parx 4/3-1-0 – stumbled and miss by just a ½ length in the second all the others were blowouts

3 – MAJESTIC CREED – much more late in last outing, two maintenance works since with the last 4f in 47.3

4 – GOLD MEDAL ANNA – getting Lasix for the 1st time and going long for the 2nd time, 12f works since last, expecting a more complete race here

6 – SOCIAL SUCCESS – won last two including TLRSP#, better from race to race in two after debut

Suggested Wagers: $0.50 Pick 5: 1/3,4,5/1,8/1,4,6/1,2,6,11

 

Race 8: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed – 38% w2w – PP: Rail Discount, 2/3 Bonus, 4-7 Discount, 8+ Bonus

4 – EMPRESS ARIANA – ran faster fractions at 7f than 6f, getting 1st Lasix here 13f works since last

5 – TAPPIN JOSIE – TLRSP# and like to win 9/4-2-1 and is 2/2 in 2023

3 – CHICKIENESS – never off the board in 6 on a fast track 6/1-4-1, consistent performer – but hasn’t show the ability to stretch at the top of her range so far
1 – DREAM CHASER – not the biggest fan of MCL risers, but is coming off a dominant effort

Suggested Wagers: $5 Win: 4

 

Race 9: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed – 38% w2w – PP: Rail Discount, 2/3 Bonus, 4-7 Discount, 8+ Bonus

8 – NO CONFESSION – PARX 3/2-1-0, winner two in a row, cutting back 1/8 mile could help

1 – JOHN DUTTON – was better ATB in his last,  a little better in each of the three races after his debut

4 – PROVE RIGHT – does fine when he is not running in graded stakes races – track and class drop, tr James Chapman winner 38% sprint-route-sprint
5 – PRAETORIAN GUARD – better ATB in last and bullet work since

Race 10: 1 Mile 70 Yards – Bias: Tactical Speed – 33% w2w – PP: Rail and Inside 3 Bias, 4-7 Fair, 8+ Major Penalty

 

6 – TIME TO CRUISE – improved early numbers in last, potentially better in 3rd off the bench

1 – NINETYPRCENTMADDIE -stopped last out, gets LASIX, maybe that helps him get back to winning form

4 – BLUE ROYAL – has some early pace should carry it longer in his 2nd run after a rest

7 – JACKSON ROAD – got the maiden win in the 4th try with TLRSP#, but lost to the 4 two back

 

Race 11: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed – 38% w2w – PP: Rail Discount, 2/3 Bonus, 4-7 Discount, 8+ Bonus

 

2 – TEXAS BASIN – jy Silvestre Gonzalez and tr Kathleen Demasi win at 31% together with 1.59 ROI

1 – GO FOR THE KILL – 3rd after a layoff, consistent performer

6 – HOPE FOR GOLD – considerably better in the 2nd half of his last race

11 – MAHOMES MONEY – has a +8 EP edge in a field of horses that want to come from off the pace

Suggested Wagers: $0.50 Trifecta: 1,2,11/1,2/1,2,4,6,11

Parx Way to Winners’ Circle Worksheet

Parx Pace Worksheet 3-6-23

 

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