PARX Full Card Tips, Analysis and Suggested Wagers
$100 Challenge – Suggested Wagers for PARX on a $100 Budget
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: Will Rogers
Parx Picks and Plays
Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapping
Race 1
6 – Juliet’s Music – She won her last race at Penn National and has a high % winning trainer.
4 – Just Stay Home – She ran 2nd vs similar in last race.
5 – Mani Pedi – She finished 3rd vs similar in last race.
Longshot:
7 – Abhaile – She has finished in the money in 42% of the races, winning 14% of the starts at PARX Racing and likes the distance finishing in the money in 46% of the races, winning 18% of the starts.
Alternate:
3 – Shez a Doubletake
Bet: $1.00 DD: 4,5,6 / 3,11
Race 2
3 – Esor – He won his last race at PARX Racing easily by 19-lenghts, has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and a jockey in who in the last 7 days has this record (10 3-1-2).
11 – Emperor’s Cause – He ran 2nd in his last race, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters, and he has a high % winning jockey.
1 – Sensible Jim – His early speed running style helps his chances and the rail post is winning at a 22% clip.
Longshot:
4 – Major Cam – I’m not sure what happened in his last race, but he has had a decent workout since then and has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
9 – Speight’spercomete
6 – Lucky Mucho Man
Bet: $.50 Trifecta: 1,3,11/3,11/1,3,4,9,11
Race 3
2 – London Lady – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race, has the highest last race speed rating, and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
5 – Java’s Lucky Lady – He has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
3 – Lucky Breeze – He finished 3rd in his last race and has a trainer who wins 22% of the races in maiden claiming races.
Longshot:
1 – Bodil – He has a high % winning trainer and a decent workout on March 25th.
Alternate:
4 – Charlize Chub
6 – Keep It Sweet
Bet: $1.00 DD: 2,5 / 1,3,5
Race 4
1- This Round’s Mine – She has finished in the money in her last six races, winning four of the races and has the highest last race speed rating.
3 – Tilsa – She has done well at PARX Racing finishing in the money in 54% of the races, winning 18% of the races and finishing 2nd vs similar in her last race.
5 – Tiz Gracie – She likes PARX Racing finishing in the money in 60% of the races, winning 15% of the races and the distance will not be a problem finishing in the money in 54% of the races, winning 27% of the races.
Longshot:
4 – Cabra Chica – She won her last race at PARX Racing and has a high % winning trainer.
Alternate:
6 – Hightime Valentine
8 – Mazal Eighteen
Bet: $.50 Pick 4 – 4th race #1 – 5th race # 1,2,4,6 – 6th race # 1,2,3,7 – 7th race #3,5,6
Race 5
6 – Almond Cider – He has finished in the money in five out his last six races, drops in class today and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
1 – Run for Karl – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race, has the highest last race speed rating and can improve at the shorter distance.
4 – Carpe All Day – He drops in class today and has a trainer who wins 21% of the maiden claiming races he has a horse entered in.
Longshot:
2 – Sharp Sensation – He finished 3rd vs similar in last race.
Alternate:
3 – Uncle Mark
Bet: None
Race 6
1 – Flashndynamite – She has a high % winning trainer and jockey; the rail post is winning at a 22% clip, and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
2 – Erin’s Enthusiasm – She switches to a high % winning trainer who wins 35% of the races in the 1st after race after claiming a horse and switches to a high % winning jockey.
7 – Ambitiously Placed – She has finished in the money in 66% of the races, winning 11% of the starts at PARX Racing and likes the distance finishing in the money in 71% of the races, winning 14% of the starts.
Longshot:
3 – Big Cheeks – She won her last race at Laurel, has a high % winning trainer and jockey and the combo in the last 14 days has this record (13 7-1-2).
Bet: $.50 Pick 5 – 6th race # 1,2,3,7 – 7th race #3,5,6- 8th race # 4 – 9th race #1,2,4,6- 10th #3
Race 7
6 – Scintillating Star – She has finished in the money in three out her four races at PARX Racing, winning one and running 2nd vs similar in her last race.
5 – Out Dancing – She finished 3rd vs similar in her last race at PARX Racing, has high % winning trainer who wins 29% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again and switches to a high % winning jockey.
3 – Et’s Moon Maiden – She finished 3rd vs tougher in her last race, drops in class today and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Longshot:
7 – Titanic Rose – She has finished in the money in twelve out of eighteen starts at PARX Racing, winning two.
Alternate:
1 – Coach Has Six Aces
Bet: – $.50 Pick 4 – 7th race #3,5,6- 8th race # 4,9 – 9th race #1,2,4,6- 10th #3,4
Race 8
4 – Starship Blanca – She got a slow break in her last race finishing 4th at PARX Racing at today’s distance, was claimed by a high % winning trainer who wins 21% of the races in the next race after claiming a horse.
9 – Powwa of Love – She ran 2nd vs similar in her last race and the distance should not be a problem.
5 – Lady Bernadette – She has an early foot and has two wins at PARX Racing.
Longshot:
6 – Hey Dewzpots – She finished 3rd vs similar in her last race.
Alternate:
2 – Frosted Wild Ride
Bet: $10.00 Win #4
Race 9
6 – Dancing On My Own – She has finished in the money in her three career races, winning one at PARX Racing and has a trainer/jockey combo who in the last 14 days has won three out of three races.
1 – Jezebel Jade – She had trouble in her last race which affected her finish, she has a has a high % winning trainer who wins 24% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
4 – Mia Tosca – She ran 2nd vs similar in her last race, has the highest last race speed rating and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
2 – Darling Donna – She has a high % winning trainer, the highest speed figure at today’s distance and a good 4F workout on Apr-03.
Bet: None
Race 10
3 – Jokemeister – He drops in class today, has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
4 – Flag – He has finished in the money in three out her four races at PARX Racing, winning two and he has a high % winning trainer.
2 – Mr. Tuttle – He finished in the money in five out of five races at today’s distance and has the highest last race speed rating (tie).
Longshot:
8 – Buster Bruno – He won his last race at PARX Racing.
Alternate:
7 – Formal Order
Bet: None
Rich’s Ranks
Race 1: 1 Mile 70 Yards – Bias: Early Speed – 32% w2w – PP: Strong Rail and inside out Bias
6 – JULIET’S MUSIC – potentially better in third start up, better early and late in last, faster fraction and sharp work between races
5 – MANI PEDI – considerably faster in her last race, ran second next out the last time she ran faster
7 – ABHAILE – might not look like it on paper, much better last out
4 – JUST STAY HOME – better early on her last race, catching a weight break today
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Trifecta: 5,6,7/5,6/4,5,6,7,8
Race 2: 1 Mile 70 Yards – Bias: Early Speed – 32% w2w – PP: Strong Rail and inside out Bias
3 – ESOR – TLRSP# and won by 19 – but MCL win – maintenance work since and likely better in 2nd up
1 – SENSIBLE JIM – can run OK off the bench, winner 3/10 1st after a claim for tr Elliott Soto-Martinez, rides the hot rail
11 – EMPEROR’S CAUSE – some better early fractions last out and then better pace numbers late
7 – EXCLUSIVE ORDER – tr Carlos Soto winner 26% second off the claim, faster late in most recent with better times
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Pick 4: 3/2,5/1,2,3,4/1,4,6
Race 3: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed – 35% w2w – PP: Mostly Fair 1-7, 8+ Small Bonus
2 – LONDON LADY – has a 15 point E/L edge and +8 LP, TLRSP#, Penn shipper but came from GP
5 – JAVA’S LUCKY LADY – Left Arrow – MSW dropper, could be close to the lead
1 – BODIL – comes back from GP after debuting at PARX, 12f of works, 2nd Lasix
3 – LUCKY BREEZE – another Penn shipper, could be lone E, 10 pound weight break
Suggested Wager: $3 Double: 2/1,4
Race 4: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed – 35% w2w – PP: Mostly Fair 1-7, 8+ Small Bonus
1 – THIS ROUND’S MINE – strong C-Zone and fair value for odds, can run well fresh, workouts don’t seem to matter
4 – CABRA CHICA – a lot better late last out, ran 6f more than 2 seconds faster
2 – TAKE CHARGE ERICA – better ATB in last, going a little longer this time should help
3 – TILSA – strong rally late in last, she too should benefit from an extra ½ furlongs today
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Trifecta: 1,2,4/1,4/1,2,3,4,5
Race 5: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed – 35% w2w – PP: Mostly Fair 1-7, 8+ Small Bonus
6 – ALMOND CIDER – drops back to a class where he kept coming close, should be close to the front, PARX 7/0-4-1
4 – CARPE ALL DAY – MSW dropper, been off since early December and been working out steadily since Jan 25
1 – RUN FOR KARL – TLRSP# and Chris P angle, a little better fractions and cuts back in distance
2 – SHARP SENSATION – 2nd try at PARX after track dropping, as close in the stretch and fades, 10 pound weight break today could help
Suggested Wager: $1 Double: 4,6/1,2,3
Race 6: 1 Mile 70 Yards – Bias: Early Speed – 32% w2w – PP: Strong Rail and inside out Bias
1 – FLASHNDYNAMITE – PARX 21/12-3-1 and Distance 12/7-2-0, has a +5 EP edge and hot rail
3 – BIG CHEEKS – cannot overlook Ness/Silvera coming in from Laurel, solid work since last
2 – ERIN’S ENTHUSIASM – 1st off the claim for Ness – 36% angle, but Silvera in on the 3
7 – AMBITIOUSLY PLACED – has some strong late race ability, long maintenance work since last effort
Suggested Wager: $1 Trifecta Key: 1/2,3,7
Race 7: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed – 40% w2w – PP: Inside 3 and 8+ Bonus. 4-7 Under Par
3 – ET’S MOON MAIDEN – a little quicker last out, TLRSP#, extra 1/2f could help
5 – OUT DANCING – BTN FAV – tr Jacinto Solis rebounds at 29% and the flip to Ruben Silvera signals Solis thinks she could be ready
6 – SCINTILLATING STAR – just missed at this level in last after holding the lead until late, good workout between races
1 – COACH HAS SIX ACES – back down in class to where she was claimed – concerned she is in for a price
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Pick 4: 3,5/2,4/1,4,6/3,4
Race 8: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed – 35% w2w – PP: Mostly Fair 1-7, 8+ Small Bonus
2 – FROSTED WILD RIDE – better ATB in last, ran 6f about 3 seconds faster, benefits from 10 scratching
4 – STARSHIP BLANCA – most consistent of the crew, catching a weight break today
7 – DON’T TELL FRANKIE – on paper looks like she should be the winner, way better in most recent outing but distance 5/0-0-0
9 – POWWA OF LOVE – best numbers at the distance, and fade late in last
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Trifecta: 2,4/2,4,7/1,2,4,7,9
Race 9: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed – 35% w2w – PP: Mostly Fair 1-7, 8+ Small Bonus
6 – DANCING ON MY OWN – can’t argue with Pennington/Servis combo – winner 10/19 and ITM 16/19 with a +4.06 ROI – Pennington off the 2
1 – JEZEBEL JADE – PARX 7/3-2-1, distance 5/2-2-0 and potentially better in 2nd off the bench
4 – MIA TOSCA – missed by a neck at the level, cuts back in distance to 6f where she is ½ (Dqd into first in the other), cut back in distance could help
14 – CHELSEA WALL – Ness/Silvera – 3rd after a layoff and 2nd after the claim
Suggested Wager: $2 Double: 1,6/3,4
Race 10: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed – 35% w2w – PP: Mostly Fair 1-7, 8+ Small Bonus
3 – JOKEMEISTER – lowest level of career, gets a weight break, wins, maybe easily at his best
4 – FLAG – Ness horse, interesting that neither Pennington or Silvera are on this one with a big drop
5 – MR. BRIGGS – may not look like it in the PPs, but last race was better than the previous effort
2 – MR. TUTTLE – better ATB in last, cut back in distance is key – distance 5/0-2-3
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Trifecta: 3,4/3,4,5/2,3,4,5,10
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