PARX Full Card Tips, Analysis and Suggested Wagers
$100 Challenge – Suggested Wagers for PARX on a $100 Budget
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: Thistledown
Parx Picks and Plays
Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapping
Race 1
5 – Cinnamon Dream – She won her last race, has the highest last race speed rating, has a high % winning trainer, and likes the distance.
3 – Pop the Clutch – She drops in class today, can improve while returning to a route and has a trainer who wins 21% of the races in the 2nd race after claiming a horse.
6 – Diane’s Comet – She finished a disappointing finish in last her race but has an excuse as she came very wide into the stretch, and she has a high % winning trainer.
Longshot:
2 – A Bit Bad N Boujee – She drops in class today and likes finishing 2nd at PARX Racing.
Alternate:
7 – Advocate Harbor
Bet: – $.50 Pick 5 – 1st race #3,5,6- 2nd race # 7– 3rd race # 1,2,6 – 4th race #1,2 – 4th race #4,6
Race 2
7 – Jovial – He ran 2nd in his last race, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters, and he has the highest last race speed rating.
6 – Strawberry Cone – He has a high % winning trainer and jockey and this combo in the last 14 days has won three out of five starts and he has a good 4F workout on Apr-15.
1 – Triple Americano – He finished 3rd in his last race, and he has the highest speed figure at today’s distance.
Longshot:
5 – Wheresthepassion – He had trouble in his last race but has an excuse as he steadied after start. He likes being the bridesmaid finishing 2nd or 3rd in ten of his starts at PARX Racing.
Alternate:
2 – Wegottaguy
4 – Duck Ducky Goose
Bet: $6.00 Win #7
Race 3
6 – Wagon Boss – He won his last race at PARX Racing; he has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
1 – What’s to Blame – He won his last race at PARX Racing; the rail post is winning at 21% clip, and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
2 – Petulant Delight – He won his last race at PARX Racing, and he has the highest speed figure at today’s distance.
Longshot:
5 – Excursion – He will be closing to try and catch the leaders to win the race and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
3 – Awesummer
4 – Acker
Bet: $6.00 Win # 6
Race 4
2- Verdandi – She drops down in class and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
1 – Random Luck– She ran 2nd in her last race and has a high % winning trainer.
6 – Angelofthegalaxy – She won her last race at PARX Racing earning the highest last race speed rating.
Longshot:
4 – Vanishing Faith – She ran 3rd in her last race and has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Alternate:
5 – Nana’s Boopa
3 – Queen Lucky
Bet: None
Race 5
6 – True Dakotan– He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race, has a high % winning trainer and the distance will not be a problem.
4 – Cape Hedge – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race and has finished in the money in three out of six races, winning two at today’s distance.
2 – Commissioner Dave – He highest speed figure at today’s distance.
Longshot:
7 – D Black Mamba – He has a high% jockey and returning to a route should help.
Alternate:
8 – Dadashev
Bet: None
Race 6
6 – Good Culture – He has been a bridesmaid the last three races and finally gets married today, earned the highest last race speed rating and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
4 – Moon Dog – He finished 5th in his last race after going against allowance company as the favorite but has a trainer who wins 23% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again and has the highest speed figure at today’s distance.
2 – Doctor Doom – He won his last race at PARX Racing, has a high % winning trainer who in the last 14 days has this record (6 2-2-0) and distance will not be a problem.
Longshot:
5 – Large – He switches to a high % winning jockey and can improve while returning to a route.
Alternate:
3 – Tycoon
Bet: $.50 Pick 5 – 6th race #2,4,6 – 7th race # 4,5,6 – 8th race # 1 – 9th race #2,3,4,6,7 – 10th #9,10
Race 7
4 – Distractandattack – He finished 3rd vs tougher in his last race, has a high % winning jockey and he has the highest last race speed rating.
6 – Hibachi – He ran 2nd vs similar in last race and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
5 – Ilovecharlybrown – His drops in class today, switches to a high% trainer and the shorter distance should help.
Longshot:
1 – Ahsad – He drops in class today, the rail post is winning at 21% clip, he has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and the shorter distance will help.
Alternate:
7 – Don’t Recall
Bet: – $.50 Pick 4 – 7th race # 4,5,6 – 8th race # 1 – 9th race #2,3,4,6,7 – 10th #9,10
Race 8
1 – He’s Incredible – He has won ten out of twenty-one races at PARX Racing, has a high % winning trainer, he has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).
2 – Big Brown Shoes – He is another entry that has won two races in a row at PARX Racing and now going for a hat trick and the distance is something he can handle.
5 – Hushion – He ran 2nd vs tougher in last race, drops in class today and has the highest speed figure at today’s distance.
Longshot:
3 – Lazaretto – He won his last race at PARX Racing and has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
6 – Jump Shot
Bet: $10.00 Win # 1
Race 9
7 – Candy for Carmel – He has won his last three races in a row and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
3 – Hoopla – He has finished in the money in five out of his last six races at PARX Racing, winning one, has a high % winning trainer and can improve at the shorter distance.
6 – Brett’s World – His best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie) and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey and the combo in the last 14 days has this record (10 3-1-1).
Longshot:
2 – Roan Mountain – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race, has the highest last race speed rating and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).
Alternate:
4 – Kobe B
1 – Irish Honor
Bet: None
Race 10
10 – Portal One – He has finished in the money in 57% of the races at PARX Racing, winning 43% of the races and has done well at today’s distance finishing in the money in 69% of the races, winning 38% of the races and drops in class today.
9 – Puttheglassdown – He finished 2nd in his last race only losing by a nose, has a high % winning trainer, has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
8 – Loverboy Lou – He won his last race at PARX Racing and has a high % winning trainer.
Longshot:
11 – The Big Bluff – He ran 2nd vs tougher in his last race, drops in class today and he has the highest last race speed rating.
Alternate:
1 – We Ready
3 – Dalton
Bet: None
Rich’s Ranks
Race 1: 1 Mile 70 Yards – Bias: Tactical Speed – 30% w2w – PP: Strong Rail, 2-7 Fair, 8+ Penalty
This race looks open, so let’s not settle for low odds
4 – GONE DREAMING – strong chance to get the lead, high comfort zone, prefer better SIM odds, ran better mid and late in last
5 – CINNAMON DREAM – has the top numbers at the distance, strong C-zone and overlay
3 – POP THE CLUTCH – but distance 2/0-1-1 and dropping in class here
2 – A BIT BAD N BOUJEE – small drop from NW4 to NW3
Suggested Wager: $1 Exacta Key Box: 4/2,3,5
Race 2: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed – 35% w2w – PP: 1-7 Fair, 8+ a Little Bonus
6 – STRAWBERRY CONE – interesting that he is shortening up, previous 6 races were all 7f – Definity quick enough to be out front, brisk maintenance work between races and big pop in only other 2nd up
7 – JOVIAL – money burner, 2x BTN FAV in last pair, TLRSP# – has an occasional race where he pops
3 – HEATED BATTLE – Sofia Vives won both mounts yesterday – this one will be a bomb, but after the first two, feel like not much difference in the rest
5 – WHERESTHEPASSION – the only one be better ATB in last, regularly ITM at the distance 8/1-2-2
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Pick 4: 3,6,7/1/1,2,4/4,6,7
Race 3: 1 Mile 70 Yards – Bias: Tactical Speed – 30% w2w – PP: Strong Rail, 2-7 Fair, 8+ Penalty
1 – WHAT’S TO BLAME – a different horse in the first start for Jamie Ness, see if he can repeat – note that Silvera rode the 5 and 6 in their last races.
6 – WAGON BOSS – cutting a little distance after going w2w at 1 1/16 miles, 2SP# increases in row
5 – EXCURSION – coming off a 7500n1y win – small drop in class here? 3SP# increases
2 – PETULANT DELIGHT – probably should be higher but pair of works are OK and finished well behind top two when the met
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Trifecta: 1,5,6/1,6/1,2,4,5,6
Race 4: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed – 35% w2w – PP: 1-7 Fair, 8+ a Little Bonus
Another race where the favorites are beyond vulnerable
2 – VERDANDI – times say this one is capable of beating most of this field by more than 5 lengths
4 – VANISHING FAITH – this the only other to achieve a comparable 6f time, could be on the lead, strong C-zone and overlay
1 – RANDOM LUCK – if the 4 doesn’t run to her potential – this one was better ATB on last and drops in class
5 – NANA’S BOOPA – tough call over the 6, but we’ll trust the C-Zone and overlay combo
6 – ANGELOFTHEGALAXY
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Pick 4: 2,4/4,6,7/4,5,6/4
Race 5: 1 1/16 Miles – Bias: Tactical Speed – 8/20 w2w – PP: Inside 3 Bias, 4-7 way Under Par, 8+ Big Bonus
6 – TRUE DAKOTAN – 4SP# increases, just missed last out, similar times at 7f as 6 1/2f
4 – CAPE HEDGE – better fractions at 1 1/16 miles than 1m70y – 3SP# increases – distance 6/2-1-0
7 – D BLACK MAMBA – top C-Zone and overlay, maybe forwardly placed
8 – DADASHEV – should be on the lead and try to hold on late
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Trifecta: 4,6,7/4,6/4,5,6,7,8
Race 6: 1 Mile 70 Yards – Bias: Tactical Speed – 30% w2w – PP: Strong Rail, 2-7 Fair, 8+ Penalty
6 – GOOD CULTURE – Parx 8/1-5-0, exploded late in his last with TLRSP and consistent high end performer
4 – MOON DOG – probably ran too fast last out, been regressing, maybe set for a rebound
5 – LARGE – Strongest C-zone and could be on the front, slight overlay
2 – DOCTOR DOOM – stepping up in class, early times at 1M70y were similar to 6 1/2f
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Trifecta: 4,5,6/4,6/2,3,4,5,6
Race 7: 7 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed – 36% w2w – PP: Strong Inside 3, Penalty 4+
4 – DISTRACTANDATTACK – class dropper, just missed at CLM 7500n1y, TLRSP# – better fractions at 7f vs 6f
6 – HIBACHI – some of the best Parx #s and better ATB in last, could continue to move forward here
2 – EMPIRE’S SCORE – best combination of early speed, C-Zone and overlay
1 – AHSAD – strong chance to be on the lead with a chance to get a good trip, rail hits and drops in class
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Pick 4: 2,4,6/1,2,6/2,7/5,7,9,10
Race 8: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed – 35% w2w – PP: 1-7 Fair, 8+ a Little Bonus
1 – HE’S INCREDIBLE – breaks sharply, gets to the lead with a strong mid move -TLRSP#
6 – JUMP SHOT -Silvestre Gonzalez and tr Lee Haleem winner 5/6 together, two works between races
2 – BIG BROWN SHOES – 4SP# increases, stronger fractions at 7f v 6f
5 – HUSHION – tough call over the 3, but has higher spikes and is an overlay
Suggested Wager: $1 Exacta Key Box: 6/1,2
Race 9: 1 Mile 70 Yards – Bias: Tactical Speed – 30% w2w – PP: Strong Rail, 2-7 Fair, 8+ Penalty
7 – CANDY FOR CARMEL – unbeaten in 3 at Parx/Distance, none were close, and dropping in class, but not in for a price
2 – ROAN MOUNTAIN – top PARX#s by a wide margin, going to be rolling at the end with strong LP and TLRSP
3 – HOOPLA – likely pacesetter, tends to fade late, cutting back a little in distance today could help
4 – KOBE B – this race will likely look a lot like the last race, maybe a touch better in round 2 off the bench
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Trifecta: 2,7/2,3,4,6,7/2,3,7
Race 10: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed – 35% w2w – PP: 1-7 Fair, 8+ a Little Bonus
7 – LITTLE HARBOUR – running at the lowest level in last 10, 3rd off the break and last didn’t count – comment – very bad start and lost any chance
9 – PUTTHEGLASSDOWN – better ATB on and putting Paco on today – his only mount – you know he’ll be aggressive looking for the win
5 – IMA PHAROAH – last race was better than it looks with similar fractions as his prior race win
10 – PORTAL ONE – tough call over the 8 and 11, but won the last 4 times he ran anywhere near this level
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Trifecta: 7,9/5,7,8,9,10/5,7,9
