PARX Racing Horse Racing Tips, Commentary, Analysis and Suggested Wagers
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: Fort Erie – https://www.guaranteedtipsheet.com/index.aspx?afid=hrt
Free PARX Racing Picks
Terry’s Picks:
PARX Racing – 8-18-2025
Race 1–
12 – El Medianoche: Winner of two out of his last three starts, finishing second in his most recent race, and is paired with a high percentage winning jockey.
11 – Wyatt Hunter: Boasts both a high percentage winning trainer and jockey. His early speed running style suits the shorter distances, making today’s conditions favorable.
7 – Save a Prayer: Coming off a win at PARX Racing receiving the highest last race speed rating and trained by a high percentage winning trainer.
Longshot:
4 – One Last Kiss: Features a high percentage winning trainer, switches to a high percentage winning jockey, and benefits from a rail post that is winning at a 20% clip.
Alternates:
2 – My Kid Syd
1 – Ortho Star
Race 2-Female
8 – Photo Finish: Photo Finish showed competitive spirit in her last start, finishing only 1-3/4 lengths behind tougher competition. She also drops in class today, making conditions more favorable. In addition, she boasts a high-percentage winning trainer and jockey and recently recorded a bullet four-furlong workout on August 10, suggesting she is in prime condition.
12 – Never Sway: Never Sway enters this race following a victory in her most recent start. She is guided by a high-percentage winning trainer and jockey, which adds confidence to her chances for another strong performance.
11 – Shetalkstomuch: Shetalkstomuch has finished in the money in six out of her last ten starts and securing two victories during that span. She has a high-percentage winning trainer and jockey and likes the distance.
Longshot:
1 – Pearls and Heels: Pearls and Heels has a notable record, with two wins in her last four starts. She drops in class today and benefits from the advantageous rail post, which is producing winners at a 20% rate. Additionally, she earned the highest last race speed rating and is backed by a high-percentage winning trainer and jockey, making her a compelling longshot.
Alternates
10 – Awesome Annmarie
$.50 Pick 4: 1,8,11,12/2,3,9,10/1,5,9/2,11 – Cost $48.00
Race 3
3 – Extrasexymcsteemee: He comes into this race after finishing second in his most recent start, where he ran as the favorite. His connections inspire confidence, as his trainer has a notable track record winning 28% of the time when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again. Coupled with a high-percentage winning jockey, these factors make Extrasexymcsteemee a strong contender.
2 – Pastero: Pastero has shown consistency, finishing in the money in two out of his three career starts. His trainer has a 28%-win rate when dropping a horse in class after claiming it, suggesting this move could set Pastero up for success. He is also paired with a high percentage winning jockey, further improving his prospects.
9 – Lord Seabee: Lord Seabee has repeatedly demonstrated competitiveness at this level, finishing third in each of his last two races against similar competition. The presence of a high-percentage winning jockey adds to the appeal of this consistent performer.
Longshot:
10 – Airman Trevor: Airman Trevor is a compelling longshot option. He finished second in his last race and earned the highest speed rating last race. His early speed running style is likely to play to his advantage in this field, making him a horse to watch for a possible upset.
Alternate:
8 – Keeping the Faith – He has a high % winning trainer and a good jockey.
1 – Dats My Pharaoh
Race 4-Female
1 – Nit Witness: Nit Witness enters this race following a strong performance, having finishing second in her most recent start as the favorite. She is guided by a high-percentage winning trainer who excels in this scenario, boasting a 31%-win rate when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again. Additionally, Nit Witness benefits from the services of a high percentage winning jockey, further strengthening her chances for a successful outing.
5 – West Side Diva: West Side Diva is another contender with several positive factors in her favor. Her trainer wins 24% of the time when employing second-time Lasix, a notable advantage for horses making this adjustment. The addition of blinkers today could further enhance her performance. Like her rivals, she is paired with a high percentage winning jockey, making her a horse to watch in this race.
9 – Instant Vision: Instant Vision comes into this event after finishing second in her last race. Her early speed running style is expected to be a key asset, allowing her to establish a favorable position early. She too is partnered with a high-percentage winning jockey, which increases her prospects in a competitive field.
Longshot:
10 – Tiggy Thunder: Tiggy Thunder stands out as a longshot with potential upside. She has demonstrated ability at PARX Racing, finishing second in one of her two starts there. With high-percentage winning jockey Paco Lopez in the saddle, Tiggy Thunder could surprise at longer odds.
Alternate:
11 – Sweet Distraction
8 – Cruise Missile
$.50 Pick 4: 1,5,9,10/2,3,2,11/3,4/3,4 – Cost $40.00
Race 5-Female
2 – Kates Warriorheart: Kates Warriorheart has shown remarkable consistency throughout her career, finishing in the money in six out of her six career starts and capturing one victory. She is trained by a high-percentage winning trainer, which further enhances her prospects for a strong performance in this race.
11 – Brooklyn Rhapsody: Brooklyn Rhapsody enters this race with a proven record of competitiveness, having finished in the money in four of her last five starts and winning two of those races. Her trainer maintains an impressive 33%-win rate when dropping a horse off a win, suggesting a strategic advantage. Additionally, Brooklyn Rhapsody boasts the fastest dirt speed among today’s starters, making her a significant threat in the field.
6 – Alyvia’s Girl: Alyvia’s Girl comes off a second-place finish in her most recent outing and holds the highest last race speed rating among the field. She benefits from the expertise of a high-percentage winning trainer and will have the added advantage of switching to a high-percentage winning jockey today. These factors position her as a strong contender in the lineup.
Longshot:
3 – Miss Raucus: Miss Raucus stands out as a potential longshot with promising credentials. She has claimed victory in two of her last three starts and is guided by a high-percentage winning trainer. The race distance is not anticipated to pose any challenges for her, making her an intriguing option for those seeking value at longer odds.
Alternate:
5 – Spooky Gal
10 – Fifty Nine Fifty
Race 6
4 – Vanzzy: Vanzzy has demonstrated impressive consistency, finishing in the money in eight out of ten starts and securing two victories. With both a high-percentage winning trainer and jockey guiding him, Vanzzy is well-positioned for another strong performance in this race.
3 – Greener Pastures: Greener Pastures emerges as a compelling longshot. He is coming off a victory at PARX Racing and holds the highest speed figure at today’s distance. Notably, his best dirt speed is the fastest among today’s starters. With the added advantage of a high-percentage winning trainer and jockey.
6 – Prince Colton: Prince Colton has demonstrated a strong affinity for PARX Racing, consistently performing at a high level at this track. He has finished in the money in an impressive 74% of his starts here, showcasing both reliability and competitiveness. Notably, he has also managed to secure victory in 26% of these outings, further underscoring his effectiveness at this venue.
Longshot:
8 – Midnight Award: Midnight Award stands out as a compelling longshot contender in this field. Over his career, he has demonstrated reliability by finishing in the money in eight out of nineteen starts. This consistent performance highlights his ability to compete at this level and suggests he could outperform expectations at longer odds. Additionally, Midnight Award is under the guidance of a high percentage winning trainer, further enhancing his profile and making him an interesting option for those seeking value in this race.
$.50 Pick 4: 3,4 /3,4,8,9/1,3,7,9,11,13/6,10 – Cost $48.00
Race 7
3 – Bottles: Bottles enters the race with momentum, having won his previous start. He is guided by a high-percentage winning trainer and jockey, which adds further confidence to his potential for another strong showing in this event.
4 – Zanduhoc: Zanduhoc was competitive in his last outing on turf, finishing just two lengths behind the winner. His early speed running style gives him an advantage, especially when returning to dirt, where he possesses the fastest speed figure among today’s starters at this surface.
9 – Heat Alert: Heat Alert presents an intriguing longshot value. He crossed the finish line first in his most recent race but was demoted to third place due to interference in the stretch. Despite this setback, he is supported by a high-percentage winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
8 – River’s Gamble: River’s Gamble presents an intriguing longshot value. He crossed the finish line third in his most recent race. He is supported by a high-percentage winning trainer and jockey, making him a potential contender at longer odds.
Alternate:
5 – Guaio
Race 8
1 – Fluff the Pillow: Fluff the Pillow has shown a strong affinity for PARX Racing, consistently performing at a high level. He has finished in the money in every race at this track, underscoring his reliability. With a win rate of 50% from his starts, he is a proven contender. His trainer boasts a 22%-win rate when dropping a horse down two or more classes, a strategic move that could further improve his chances in this event. Additionally, Fluff the Pillow will be guided by a high-percentage winning jockey, and he draws the rail post, which is currently yielding winners at a solid 19% clip.
3 – Wynn Giant: Wynn Giant enters the race following a victory at PARX Racing, demonstrating that he is in good form. He benefits from the guidance of a high-percentage winning trainer and jockey, both of whom have a history of success at this venue. Wynn Giant has also proven he can handle the distance, making him a strong candidate for another top performance.
13 – New Commission: New Commission comes into this race after finishing second against tougher competition in his last outing. With a class drop today, he faces an easier field, which could play to his advantage and increase his prospects for a strong finish.
Longshot:
7 – Grand Daniel: Grand Daniel offers long-shot value, having secured two victories in his last three starts at PARX Racing. His trainer has an 18%-win rate in dirt races when entering a horse, which bodes well for his chances in this event. The presence of a high-percentage winning jockey further enhances Grand Daniel’s potential to surprise at longer odds.
Alternate:
9 – Dreaming of Gerry
11 – Hey Porter
16 – Mose Perfect
Race 9–Female
6 – Chelsea Wall: Chelsea Wall is aiming for her fourth consecutive victory, having already secured three wins during her current streak. She is trained by a high-percentage winning trainer, who achieves victory 33% of the time when entering a horse off a win. For this race, Chelsea Wall will be ridden by Paco Lopez, a jockey known for his high winning percentage, which further strengthens her prospects.
10 – Sheza Bernardini: Sheza Bernardini comes into this race having won her last two starts and will be seeking a third straight victory. She is supported by both a high-percentage winning trainer and jockey, a combination that enhances her chances of continuing her winning form.
2 – Mavilus: Mavilus has a proven affinity for PARX Racing, finishing in the money in 67% of her races at this venue and winning 33% of those starts. She has placed in races over this distance 71% of the time, with a win rate of 36%.
Longshot:
3 – Penny Polka: Penny Polka has a proven affinity for PARX Racing, finishing in the 3rd in her only start at PARX Racing. She drops in class today and her early speed running style will help her chances. These consistent performances make Mavilus a noteworthy longshot in today’s event.
$.50 Pick 4: 2,3,6,10 /6,9,10/6,12/4,7,8,10 – Cost $48.00
Race 10–Female
9 – Old Head: Old Head has demonstrated remarkable consistency, finishing in the money in nine out of ten starts and securing victory in two of those races. She will be ridden by Paco Lopez, a high-percentage winning jockey, which further enhances her chances of success.
10 – Denali Rae: Denali Rae enters this race after winning her last two consecutive races and is now aiming for a hat trick. With both a high-percentage winning trainer and jockey in her corner, she is well-positioned to continue her strong performance.
6 – Could Be a Cougar: Could Be a Cougar benefits from a trainer who wins 42% of races when dropping horses down two or more classes. She is also paired with a high-percentage winning jockey and recently posted an impressive 4-furlong workout on August 7, indicating readiness for today’s competition.
Longshot:
2 – Goldieness: Goldieness is coming off a win at PARX Racing and boasts a high-percentage winning trainer. The race distance is expected to suit her well, making her a notable long-shot contender in this field.
Alternate:
5 – Chipotle Pepper
1 – Creative Copy
Race 11
12 – Retribution: Retribution has demonstrated notable consistency in his career, finishing in the money in three of his four starts and securing victory in one of those races. He is trained by a high-percentage winning trainer, who boasts a 27%-win rate in Non-Graded Stake races, and is paired with a high-percentage winning jockey, both factors that enhance his chances in this event.
6 – Kentucky Outlaw: Kentucky Outlaw has been competitive throughout his career, winning three out of six starts. He drops in class for this race, which could play to his advantage. Notably, he holds the fastest dirt speed figure among today’s starters and is supported by both a high-percentage winning trainer and jockey, making him a formidable contender.
9 – Doroteo: Doroteo enters this race with momentum, having won his most recent start. With both a high-percentage winning trainer and jockey guiding him, his chances for another strong performance are promising.
Longshot:
11 – Cool Intentions: Cool Intentions has shown consistency, finishing in the money in five out of his eight career starts. He is trained by a high percentage winning trainer, making him a notable longshot to consider in this field.
Bet: $40.00 Win: 12 – $10.00 – Exacta: 12/6,9,11 – $5.00 Exacta Box: 6,9,12
Race 12
7 – Tatum: Tatum is dropping in class for today’s race, a move that could lead to improvement, especially as he returns to dirt. With both a high-percentage winning trainer and jockey in his corner, he has the potential to deliver a competitive performance.
4 – Ava K’s Boy: Ava K’s Boy has demonstrated a strong affinity for PARX Racing, finishing in the money in 82% of his starts at this venue and winning 32% of those races. He is guided by a high percentage winning trainer, making him a reliable contender in this field.
8 – Nuedorf: Nuedorf presents as a notable longshot, having won two of his last three starts. He is paired with both a high-percentage winning trainer and jockey, and his recent four-furlong workout on August 9 indicates solid preparation for today’s race.
Longshot:
10 – Full Irish: Full Irish drops in class for today’s race. He finished in 2nd in his only start at PARX Racing, and likes the distance.
Alternate:
11 – Fast Bo
Best Bet of the Day at PARX Racing – 11th Race – #12 – Retribution
Rich’s Picks:
Race 1: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 35% w2w – PP: Inside 3 Bonus, 4+ Discount
12 – EL MEDIANOCHE – SIM FAV – Top Total Pace +8 – by far best PAR+ and Paco
7 – SAVE A PRAYER – better ATB in last – weight break – 5 way improvement
11 – WYATT HUNTER – plenty of upside potential
15 – IRISH TENOR – only YES Horse and track dropper – pacesetter
$0.50 Trifecta Box: 7,11,12,15
Race 2: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Stalkers, 32% w2w – PP: Inside Out
8 – PHOTO FINISH – should be forward – bullet work between race – Ness and Paco
9 – POPOVER GAL – has a win a second in two on a wet track with best numbers
12 – NEVER SWAY – not sure if she is a track dropper, but distance 4/3-1-0 – Top TP
11 – SHETALKSTOMUCH – biggest class dropper and biggest in race edge – 2 lengths LS
$0.50 Pick 4: 8,9,11,12/2,4,6,10/1,8,9/6,11
Race 3: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Stalkers, 32% w2w – PP: Inside Out
10 – AIRMAN TREVOR – TLRSP# +5 and Top TP – 3sp# increases – class dropper
4 – CHARTAGE – first timer versus vs mostly noes – and 1 yes that’s been off more than a year
2 – PASTERO – on a day like today – got to have Paco – class dropper
6 – RICKIE’S KIN – only MSW dropper with 2nd race upside
$0.50 Trifecta Box: 2,4,6,10
Race 4: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Stalkers, 32% w2w – PP: Inside Out
1 – NIT WITNESS – 2nd race PARABILITY – Rodriquez and Ness – rail edge
9 – INSTANT VISION – Parx 5/0-4-0 better EP in last
8 – CRUISE MISSILE – Track Dropper – Yes horse and class dropper
10 – TIGGY THUNDER – only 3rd race – rerun debut with some upside with Paco
$0.50 Pick 4: 1,9/2,4,6,10,11/3,4/3,4,8,9,12
$8 Win: 1
Race 5: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 35% w2w – PP: Inside 3 Bonus, 4+ Discount
11 – BROOKLYN RHAPSODY – Only Yes horse – SIM FAV – Top TP – won only Parx race
6 – ALYVIA’S GIRL – just missed in her last – has a maintenance work – 2nd up – could be a little drop or nice upside
10 – FIFTY NINE FIFTY – better ATB in last – proper distance 5/1-3-0 – others 4/0-0-1
2 – KATES WARRIORHEART – never off the board in 6 races – 4 at the distance -2nd up
$0.50 Trifecta Box: 3,6,10,11
Race 6: 1 Mile 70 Yards – Bias: Early Speed, 30% w2w – PP: Inside Out
4 – VANZZY – SIM FAV -class dropper – Paco – Parx 6/2-2-1
3 – GREENER PASTURES – Hugo Padilla tr and owner – faster last out – 2nd up
6 – PRINCE COLTON – Lone E potential and pacesetter
7 – SILENT MODE – Top TP and best C ZONE by a decent margin – huge win in last
$0.50 Pick 4: 3,4/3,4,8,12/1,3/1,3,16,17 (9,11)
$8 Win: 4
Race 7: 7 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 39% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2/3 Best, 4+ Discount, Inside Out
3 – BOTTLES – winner 3/3 on and off track – just 1 in 6 on any other – SIM FAV
4 – ZANDUHOC – big chance to be on the lead – Top TP and YES horse – 2nd up
12 – HEAVEN’S GOT FIRE – YES horse – faster in last – off track 6/1-4-0
8 – RIVER’S GAMBLE – Paco – 3SP# increases – Better ATB and drops
$0.50 Trifecta Box: 3,4,8,12
Race 8: 1 Mile 70 Yards – Bias: Early Speed, 30% w2w – PP: Inside Out
16 – MOSE PERFECT – class dropper – better fractions and Top PAR+
3 – WYNN GIANT – solid on an off track 5/1-2-1 – good works between races
17 – SELF TAUGHT – Paco – 2nd up – resume says he will be better
1 – FLUFF THE PILLOW – consistent and nose away from winning both at Parx
9 – DREAMING OF GERRY – if 16 or 17 scratches
11 – HEY PORTER
Race 9: 1 Mile 70 Yards – Bias: Early Speed, 30% w2w – PP: Inside Out
6 – CHELSEA WALL – Paco – 3SP# increases – Small Z in last
2 – MAVILUS – SIM FAV – Top TP, Top PAR+ by a decent margin and class dropper
10 – SHEZA BERNARDINI – Track dropper and winner 2/3 at the distance
7 – HI HEELED WARRIOR – off track 5/3-1-1 – if she can get off to a decent start
$0.50 Pick 4: 2,6,10/1,6,9/6,11,12/4,7,8
Race 10: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 35% w2w – PP: Inside 3 Bonus, 4+ Discount
9 – OLD HEAD – Paco again – hope he has a big day – strong 1st up like today – Top PAR+
1 – CREATIVE COPY – rail bonus – Z Pattern -consistent performer
6 – COULD BE A COUGAR – stopped in last – ignore – strong work between races
10 – DENALI RAE – winner 2 in a row – and ITM 6/7 on an off track
$0.50 Trifecta Box: 1,6,9,10
Race 11: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Stalkers, 32% w2w – PP: Inside Out
6 – KENTUCKY OUTLAW – two blowout wins at Parx – Speed and Kendrick
12 – RETRIBUTION – TLRSP# +3 and Top TP more than a length – better fractions drops
11 – COOL INTENTIONS – Paco – track dropper – definitely faced better – but lost to top pick
8 – FIRE PIT – 2nd up – two easy wins in 3 at Parx – 2nd up – 2 nice works between races
$0.50 Trifecta Box: 6,8,11,12
Race 12: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 35% w2w – PP: Inside 3 Bonus, 4+ Discount
8 – NUEDORF – rerun last race and it’s a wrap
4 – AVA K’S BOY – should be better in 2nd up – highly consistent – ITM 6/8 on off
7 – TATUM – last run on an off track would do
10 – FULL IRISH – could be pacesetter and as much upside as any
$0.50 Trifecta Box: 4,8,7,10
