PARX Racing Horse Racing Tips, Commentary, Analysis and Suggested Wagers
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Free PARX Racing Racing Picks
Terry Hollywood Hay’s Picks:
PARX Racing – 8-20-2024
Race 1
3 – Awesomebrotherbill – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race, he has the highest last race speed rating and he can handle the distance.
5 – Lazaretto – He drops in class today and he has a high % winning trainer who wins 36% of the races when dropping a horse down 2+ classes and he has a high % winning jockey.
4 – Rejected Again – His early speed running style helps chances so the shorter distance should help, he has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and he has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
8 – We Ready – He finished 2nd in his last race and he has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
2 – If We Get Lucky
$.50 Pick 4: 3,5/1,3,4/5,7/3,7,8 – Cost $18.00
Race 2-Female
1 – Royal Upstart – She has finished in the money in four out of four starts at PARX Racing, the rail post is winning at a 23% clip and she has high % winning trainer who wins 25% of the races with horses in maiden claiming races.
3 – Moonlit Magic – She drops in class today, has the highest last race speed rating and has a high % winning jockey.
4 – Tan Pam – She has a trainer who wins 23% of the races when dropping a horse down 2+ classes and she has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
5 – Go Chloe Go – She drops in class today and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Alternate:
6 – Stay Opportunistic
2 – Udidn’tpay
Contest Pick: #1-3
The 1234 Pick 4
$.50 Pick 4: 1,3,4/7/7,8/1,3,5,8– Cost $12.00
Race 3
7 – Surfboard – He ran 2nd vs tougher in his last race, drops in class today, he has a trainer who wins17% of the claiming races he has a horse running in and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).
5 – Renegade Serenade – He has the highest last race speed; his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie) and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
1 – Bointheback – He has a high % winning trainer and he may improve while returning to dirt.
Longshot:
2 – Hermoso Hombre – He has a high % winning jockey.
Contest Pick: #7 – 5
Race 4-Female
7 – Ode to Edie – She won her debut race at PARX Racing and she has a high % winning trainer.
8 – Fast Gal – She has a high % winning trainer who wins 20% of the races when taking a horse from a Sprint to route.
3 – Miss Cinnamon – She has won two races out of the last four starts at PARX Racing and she has a high % winning trainer who wins 32% of the races in the 2nd race after claiming a horse.
Longshot:
10 – Noisy On the Bay – She has a high % winning jockey and can improve while returning to a route.
Contest Pick: #7 – 3
The No Favorite Pick 4
$.50 Pick 4: #3,7,8/1,3,8/1,3,6/1,2,4– Cost $40.50
Race 5
3 – Harrison C – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race and he has a high % winning jockey.
1 – First Squad – He drops in class today and has high % winning trainer Scott Lake and ridden by high % winning jockey Paco Lopez.
5 – Cisco Kid – He drops in class today and he has a high % winning trainer who wins 37% of the races when taking a horse from a maiden race to a maiden claiming race.
Longshot:
8 – Whoosh – He ran 2nd in his last race, and he has a high % winning trainer.
Alternate:
7 – I Can Do Magic
Contest Pick: #3 -1
Race 6
1 – Colonel Bob – He is a first-time starter whose Dam has 9 winners from 12 starters and he has high % winning trainer who wins 27% of the races with 1st time starter, he has a high % winning trainer jockey and he has a 4F workout on Aug-13.
5 – Play the Gray – He drops in class today; his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
3 – Analog Jones – He finished 3rd vs similar in his only start he has a high % winning trainer who wins 24% of the Maiden Sp Wt races he has a horse running in and he has a good 4F workout on Aug-13.
Longshot:
9 – Curious Soul – He has a high % winning trainer who wins 20% of the races in dirt starts and he has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
6- The Tire Man
2 – Mavis Mischief
$.50 Pick 4: 1,3,5,9/1,2/2,4,9,10/3,5,9 – Cost $48.00
Contest Pick: #1 – 5
Race 7-Female
2 – Battalia – She has won two races in a row and is now going for a hat trick and she has a high % winning trainer.
1 – Leviosa – She won his last two races at PARX Racing and she has a high % winning trainer.
6 – Cabra Chica – She drops in class today and likes the distance winning four races out of seven starts.
Longshot:
4 – Burning Embers – She likes PARX Racing, finishing in the money in 55% of the races, winning 23% of the races, the distance will not be a problem finishing in the money in 75% of the races, winning 25% of the races.
Alternate:
7 – Decoupage
8 – Seeking the Dream
Contest Pick: #1: #2-1
Bet: $10.00 Win & $20.00: #2
Race 8-Female
2 – Cause I Said – She has finished in the money in four out of her last five starts, winning three of the starts and finishing 3rd vs similar in her last race, she has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and she has a high % winning jockey.
4 – Gladriel – She has won two races out of the last four starts at PARX Racing and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
9 – Unadulterated – She won her last race at PARX and she has high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
10 – Our Uptown Girl – She has won two races out of the last three starts at PARX Racing and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
3 – Valiant Majesty
Contest Pick: #2 -4
Race 9
9 – El Hermano – He drops in class today, likes the distance and he has high % winning trainer.
5 – Trending Up – He drops in class today, has the highest last race speed rating (tie), switches to a high % trainer and he has high % winning jockey.
3 – Dad’s On a Roll – He drops in class today and switches to high % jockey Paco Lopez.
Longshot:
7 – Midnight Act – He has a high % trainer and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).
Alternate:
1 – Ahsad
Contest Pick: #3 – 9
Best Bet of the Day at PARX Racing – 7th Race -#2 – Battalia
Rich’s Picks:
Race 1: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed, 33% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus – Inside Out
3 – AWESOMEBROTHERBILL – 3rd off the bench should look a lot like the last – just missed, cutting back a half furlong helps
5 – LAZARETTO – bounce back coming on the big class drop
8 – WE READY – better EP in last and shown to be highly competitive at this level at Parx
4 – REJECTED AGAIN – should benefit from cutting back in distance and carrying less weight
Race 2: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed, 33% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus – Inside Out
3 – MOONLIT MAGIC – don’t really want the fav, only with a par race and 1 of 2 four YOs vs 3 YOs
1 – ROYAL UPSTART – the other 4 YO – PARX 4/0-2-2 after coming in from GP
4 – TAN PAM – Churchill track dropper – decent enough PARX works to consider
6 – STAY OPPORTUNISTIC
Race 3: 1 Mile 70 Yards – Bias: Early Speed, 39% w2w – PP: Almost All Fair
5 – RENEGADE SERENADE – should run away with this race – biggest class dropper, faster fractions last out
2 – HERMOSO HOMBRE – track dropper from GP that could steal this one on the lead as lone E
7 – SURFBOARD – speed figures and pace figures moving up in the last 2 starts
1 – BOINTHEBACK – Z pattern in last, first up – two reasons he is a better choice than the 6
Race 4: 1 Mile 70 Yards Turf – OFF – 1 Mile 70 Yards Bias: Early Speed, 39% w2w – PP: Almost All Fair
7 – ODE TO EDIE – most upside with only 1 race – dominating debut – 2nd race improvement could be another easy win
10 – NOISY ON THE BAY – probably facing the easiest comp of her short career
3 – MISS CINNAMON – first up with a pair of workouts – one of which is the best in more than a year
8 – FAST GAL – got to give PACO a chance, but so far the horse hasn’t responded to him
Race 5: 7 ½ Furlongs Turf – OFF – 1 Mile
5 – CISCO KID – MSW dropper that should be on the lead and 43% Q30
1 – FIRST SQUAD – PACO in a class dropper that race a Z pattern, 50/50 on second up
2 – AUDEN – track dropper with by far the most back class
7 – I CAN DO MAGIC – running at the lowest level of career – though they had something his fort two starts were NGSTKs
Race 6: 7 Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed, 21% w2w – PP: Inside 3 Edge, 4+ Penalty
1 – COLONEL BOB – first timer vs a bunch that haven’t come close to par 2.7
3 – ANALOG JONES – 2nd race improvement puts him in contentions
5 – PLAY THE GRAY – ML FAV – same story as the 3
7 – ARCH COMPETITOR – same story as the 3 and 5 but comes in from Monmouth
Race 7: 5 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 54% w2w – PP: Outside to Inside Bias
2 – BATTALIA – crushed in the last two – finding her form
6 – CABRA CHICA – ML FAV – fairly solid first up – distance works too 7/4-1-1
8 – SEEKING THE DREAM – runs well fresh too – strong chance to be pacesetter – best bias fit
1 – LEVIOSA – upped speed figure in last 3, dominating wins in three of last four races
Race 8: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed, 37% w2w – PP: Inside Out
4 – GLADRIEL – been facing tougher – repeat of her lone PARX run could be enough – bullet work says she likes the Bensalem course
2 – CAUSE I SAID – ML FAV – just needs to run back to her last PARX outing 2 back
10 – OUR UPTOWN GIRL – almost all of her races at this level fit and end ITM
3 – VALIANT MAJESTY – signs of life in her last with more ES – most back class
Race 9: 1 Mile 70 Yards Turf – OFF – 1 Mile 70 Yards Bias: Early Speed, 39% w2w – PP: Almost All Fair
9 – EL HERMANO – ML FAV – drops in class to lowest level in last 10 – comes off the bench OK
1 – AHSAD – maybe gets to the lead and never gives up
5 – TRENDING UP – class dropper on better fractions last out
3 – DAD’S ON A ROLL – can’t pass on PACO with a horse that just missed at this level in his last Parx effor
