PARX Racing Horse Racing Tips, Commentary, Analysis and Suggested Wagers
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Free PARX Racing Racing Picks
Terry Hollywood Hay’s Picks:
PARX Racing – 12-10-2024
Race 1 -Female
3 – Factor U and Me In – She has finished in the money in her last four starts, winning one race and she has a high % winning jockey.
2 – Dunphy – She returns to PARX Racing where she won her last race, her early speed running style helps chances so the shorter distance should help and she has a high % winning trainer.
8 – Nuedorf – She likes PARX Racing finishing in the money in 57% of the races, winning 19% of the starts, and distance will not be a problem as he has finished in the money in 55% of the races, winning 27% of the starts.
Longshot:
6 – Warrior’s Vow – She has the highest speed figure at today’s distance, her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and she has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
7 – Mister Moore
Race 2 -Female
3 – Fridayswithmurray – She has finished 3rd in her last race, she has a high % winning trainer who wins 47% of the races when taking a horse up 2+ classes, she can improve while returning to a route and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).
4 – Encrypt – She drops in class today, has the highest last race speed rating (tie), and she has a high % winning trainer who wins 20% of the races when taking a horse from a sprint to a route.
6 – Okie Den Den – She has a high % winning jockey and a good prime power number.
Longshot:
1 – Ohio Joe – She is a first-time starter whose Dam has 1 winner from 1 starter, she has a trainer who wins 20% of the 2YO races she has a horse running in and she has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
2 – Steel N Cents
$.50 Pick 4: 1,2,3,4,6/1,3,6/2,6/3,5,6 – Cost $45.00
Race 3 -Female
6 – Rumint – She finished 3rd in her last race as the favorite but has a high % winning trainer who wins 30% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).
3 – Bythenumbers – She has finished in the money in two races out of her four starts at PARX Racing, winning one race and she has a high % winning trainer.
1 – Tootsie Toes – She ran 2nd vs similar in her last race, she has the highest last race speed rating and she has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
2 – Far Heart – The longer distance offers hope for improvement, she has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).
Alternate:
5 – Louella Street – Her early speed running style helps chances.
4 – Kestenna
Race 4
6 – Vanellope – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race at PARX Racing, he has the highest last race speed rating and he has a high % winning jockey.
2 – Noisy On the Bay – He has finished in the money in seven races out of his nine starts at PARX Racing, winning one race and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
4 – Lady Robo – He finished 3rd in his last race at PARX Racing and he is one for one at today’s distance.
Longshot:
3 – Jess’s Moment – He has finished in the money in his last five starts, winning the last race and he can handle the distance.
Alternate:
5 – She’sallatwitter
$.50 Pick 4: #2,3,4,6/3,5,6/1,2,5,6/6,7 – Cost $48.00
Race 5-Female
3 – Master of Tweets – She ran 2nd vs similar in her last race and she has a high % winning trainer who wins 21% of the maiden claiming races he has a horse competing in and she has a high % winning jockey.
6 – Son of Thor – She drops in class today, she has a trainer who wins 22% of the 1st time maiden claiming races a horse he trains competes in and she has a high % winning jockey.
5 – Don’t Doubt Declan – She is a first-time starter whose breeding suits today’s sprint distance and she has been steadily working out for her debut race.
Longshot:
1 – Chilling Time – She drops in class today and the rail post is winning at a 19% clip.
Alternate:
4 – Three Wells
Race 6
5 – Last Romance – He won his last race at PARX Racing, he has a high % winning trainer and jockey and this combo in the last 14 days has this (21 8-3-3).
1 – El Hermano – He likes PARX Racing finishing in the money in 59% of the races, winning 24% of the starts, and distance will not be a problem as he has finished in the money in 59% of the races, winning 24% of the starts.
2 – Assembly Point – He ran 2nd vs tougher in last race, drops in class today, he has the highest last race speed rating (tie) and he has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
6 – Rackataptap – He won his last race at PARX Racing and he has a high % winning trainer.
Alternate:
7 – Singinthruthestorm
3 – Dad’s On a Roll
Race 7
6 – Designated – He has won two races in a row and now goes for a hat trick, he has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and he has a high % winning jockey.
7 – Annieworkstoomuch – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race, he has a trainer who wins 20% of the races in the second race a horse has after claiming the horse and his early speed running style helps chances so he can improve at the shorter distance.
4 – Xtra Extraordinary – He has a trainer who wins 18% of the sprints a horse he trains competes in and he has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
1 – Melody’s Kiss – She has a trainer who wins 19% of the races when taking a horse from a sprint- route-sprint, the rail post is winning at a19% clip, he can improve while returning to a sprint and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and jockey.
Alternate:
2 – Survival Rose
3 – Chit Chat Chub
$.50 Pick 4: #4,6,7/1,2,3,4,5/3,6/4,6,9 – Cost $45.00
Race 8-Female
1 – Action Hero – She ran 2nd vs similar in last race, the rail post is winning at a19% clip and she has a high % winning jockey.
2 – Jackson Road – She has a high % winning trainer who wins 20% of the races when taking a horse from a route to a sprint and her early speed running style helps her chances so the shorter distance can help.
3 – Carcharoth – She has a high % winning trainer 20% of the races after a horse he trains takes a 46–90-day break and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Longshot:
4 – Dirty Harry – She won her last race.
Alternate:
5 – Hero’s Spirit
6 – Humble Joe
Race 9-Female
6 – Quick Tempo – She has finished in the money in eight races out of his last ten starts at PARX Racing, winning five races and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
3 – Traders Luck – She finished 2nd in her last race as the favorite but has a high % winning trainer who wins 19% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again and she has a high % winning jockey.
2 – Practical Coach – She ran 2nd vs similar in her last race and she has a high % winning trainer.
Longshot:
5 – Roan Burgundy – She ran 2nd vs similar in her last race, winning the prior race and she has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
4 – Aggrandize
1 – Speedy Bolt
Bet: $20.00 Win & $25.00 Place: #6 – $10.00 Exacta Box: #3,6 – $5.00 Exacta: 6/2,3,5 – $5.00 DD: 3,6/6,9
Race 10-Female
9 – Geebert – She has won 19% of her starts at PARX Racing, has the highest last race speed rating, drops in class today and she has a high % winning trainer who wins 23% of the races when dropping a horse down 2+ classes.
6 – Harley’s Charly – She has won two of his last four races at PARX Racing, drops in class today, she has a trainer who wins 33% of the races when dropping a horse down 2+ classes.
4 – Lookin’ Super – She won her last race at PARX Racing, she has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and she has a high % winning trainer.
Longshot:
2 – My Devils Child – She has finished in the money in 45% of the races at PARX Racing, drops in class today and she has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
3 – Petulant Delight
7 – Justinspeightofit
Best Bet of the Day at PARX Racing – 9th Race – #6 – Quick Tempo
Rich’s Picks:
Race 1: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Stalkers, 36% w2w – PP: Inside Out
8 – NUEDORF – TLRSP# +10 – missed by a neck last out – better ATB and drops
2 – DUNPHY – lowest level in last 10, better EP and Fractions last out – Ness/Silvera
3 – FACTOR U AND ME IN – does his best work forward and should be upfront today
6 – WARRIOR’S VOW – better fractions last out and cuts in distance today helps
Race 2: 1 Mile – Bias: Early Speed, 37% w2w – PP: Small Inside 3 Bias, 4-7 A little Under Par, 8+ Best
4 – ENCRYPT – 2nd Race improvement in MSW drop
1 – OHIO JOE – none of the others have a PAR race – got to take the 2.6 first timer
3 – FRIDAYSWITHMURRAY – Ness/Silvera with chance to be better in 2nd up for the first time
6 – OKIE DEN DEN – could be the pacesetter and chance to hold speed longer in 2nd up – 50 Q30
Race 3: 1 Mile 70 Yards – Bias: Early Speed, 38% w2w – PP: Inside 3 Bonus, 4-7 Discount, 8+ Almost Fair
6 – RUMINT – Top TOTAL PACE +8 – strong chance to lead – Ness/Silvera
2 – FAR HEART – the only other with a PAR race on the recent resume – this is the Distance 4/2-1-1 – any other 12/0-0-0
3 – BYTHENUMBERS – Z pattern with a little better fractions early in last
1 – TOOTSIE TOES – better ATB – a little better fractions in last
Race 4: 1 Mile 70 Yards – Bias: Early Speed, 38% w2w – PP: Inside 3 Bonus, 4-7 Discount, 8+ Almost Fair
2 – NOISY ON THE BAY – only horse with a par race on her recent resume – consistent performer
6 – VANELLOPE – TLRSP# +4 – will be coming at the end and ran 2 seconds faster last out
4 – LADY ROBO – going to be on the lead – 38 Q30 – with 3SP# increases
3 – JESS’S MOMENT – better ATB in last – will be closing and ITM 5/6 since coming from Gulfstream
Race 5: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Stalkers, 36% w2w – PP: Inside Out
3 – MASTER OF TWEETS – slowly improving and TLRSP#+5
5 – DON’T DOUBT DECLAN – none in here have hit par – first timer that might have some early pop
6 – SON OF THOR – pure MSW dropper – the only one in the field – run back to debut is a winner
2 – MOONCHILL – overlay and high odds, why not where anything can happen
Race 6: 1 Mile 70 Yards – Bias: Early Speed, 38% w2w – PP: Inside 3 Bonus, 4-7 Discount, 8+ Almost Fair
5 – LAST ROMANCE – Sanchez/Ness – showed elite level late pace in last in first for Ness off the claim
2 – ASSEMBLY POINT – 3SP# increases – 2nd by a head in last and drops in class here
1 – EL HERMANO – will be rolling at the end and Top TOTAL PACE +5
6 – RACKATAPTAP – all or nothing at the distance 6/3-0-0 – winner 2/3 at PARX since track dropping from CD and Oaklawn
Race 7: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Stalkers, 36% w2w – PP: Inside Out
7 – ANNIEWORKSTOOMUCH – missed by a neck last out and cut back in distance helps here
6 – DESIGNATED – winner 2 in a row – PARX 8/4-1-1 – just 1 more win in 13 elsewhere
1 – MELODY’S KISS – drops in class in the 3rd up – won last 3rd up and drops in class here
2 – SURVIVAL ROSE – consistent performer that hit the board in 7/10 at the distance
Race 8: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed, 35% w2w – PP: Inside Out
2 – JACKSON ROAD – Top TOTAL PACE +6, just needs to run back to October 24th start
3 – CARCHAROTH – lowest level of career and decent works prepping
1 – ACTION HERO – better ATB in last and very consistent performer
6 – HUMBLE JOE – will be closing – just needs to run back 3 races to score here
Race 9: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed, 35% w2w – PP: Inside Out
6 – QUICK TEMPO – Top TOTAL PACE +5 – Pace Setter with 31 Q30 – TLRSP#+7
3 – TRADERS LUCK – 3rd up and just needs to run back to first up – should be a rebound race in 3rd up
2 – PRACTICAL COACH – highly consistent performer – much better EP in last
1 – SPEEDY BOLT – tough call over the 5 – but average race is better
Race 10: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Stalkers, 36% w2w – PP: Inside Out
9 – GEEBERT – drops to lowest level in last 10 – will be coming at the end
5 – JEBOLOGIST – should be forward all the way around the track
7 – JUSTINSPEIGHTOFIT – better middle out in last
4 – LOOKIN’ SUPER – is a consistent performer – a head away from winning last 2
