PARX Racing Horse Racing Tips, Commentary, Analysis and Suggested Wagers
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Free PARX Racing Racing Picks
Terry Hollywood Hay’s Picks:
Race 1-Female
6 – Marion Grace – She has won two races in a row and is now going for a hat trick; she switches to a high % winning trainer and she has a high % winning jockey.
9 – Knock Out Kid – She won her last race and she has a high % winning jockey.
7 – Vanishing Faith – She drops in class today, has a trainer who wins 18% of the claiming races he has a horse running in and she has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
8 – Awesome Pal – She finished 3rd vs similar in her last race, her early speed running style helps her chances so the shorter distance will help.
Alternate:
1 – Starship Rogue
Race 2-Female
6 – Dixie Groove – She has finished in the money in her last five starts, winning two of the races and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
5 – Luli’s Dancer – She finished 3rd vs similar in her last race, her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
2 – Akna – She ran 2nd vs similar in her last race and she has the highest speed figure at today’s distance.
Longshot:
3 – Cici Unified – She switches to a high% trainer and she has three wins at PARX Racing.
Alternate:
4 – Bella Maria
1 – Cup of Life
$.50 Pick 4: #5,6/5,6/3,4/2,3,5 – Cost $12.00
Race 3
6 – Edge of Glory – He finished 4th in his last race at Laurel as the favorite but has a high % winning trainer who wins 30% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again, drops in class today, he has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
5 – Dudley Dickerson – He drops in class today and the distance will not be a problem.
3 – Shouldhavebeengone – His early speed running style helps chances and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
4 – Major Cam – His early speed running style helps chances and he has a high % winning trainer.
Alternate:
1- Tucker Road
2 – Tequilamademedoit
Race 4
4 – Borracho Concho – He may improve at the shorter distance as he has the highest speed figure at today’s distance, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
3 – Nuedorf – He finished 3rd vs similar in her last race he has a high % winning jockey.
2 – Checking Boxes – He finished 3rd in his last race, has a high % winning trainer and he has a good 4F workout Jul-03.
Longshot:
5 – Rabbit – He switches to a high % trainer and his best dirt speed is close to the avg winning speed.
Alternate:
1 – T’was the Night
$.50 Pick 4: #2,3,4,5/2,5/1,6,7/1,2,5,6 – Cost $48.00
Race 5-Female
5 – Fast Mule – She finished 3rd vs similar in his last race at PARX Racing as the favorite but has a high % winning trainer who wins 36% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again, and she has a high % winning jockey.
2 – Road to Dreams – She finished 2nd vs similar in his last race at PARX Racing, her first start on the turf and at today’s distance.
3 – Color Crush – She finished 3rd in his last race, her best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie) and she has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
9 – Catti La Belle – She won his last start at PARX Racing; she has a high % winning trainer who wins 21% of the races in the 1st race after claiming a horse.
Alternate:
10 – Solemn Oath
Bet: $16.00 Win: # 5
Race 6-Female
7 – Bucks Some – She was beaten only 2-lengths vs similar in last start and she has a high % winning jockey.
1 – Luna T– She ran 2nd vs similar in her last race, the rail post is winning at a 23% clip and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
6 – Mazal Eighteen – She won her last race; her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie) and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
4 – Captivating Cara – She has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).
Alternate:
5 – Gia’s Fuego
Race 7
1 – Lotta Charlie – He is a first–time starter whose Dam has 6 winners from 12 starters and he has high % winning trainer and jockey.
5 – Hidden Motive – He is a first–time starter whose Dam has 4 winners from 5 starters and 1 stakes winner, he has a high % winning trainer and jockey and he has a 4f bullet workout on July 4th.
6 – Cappetta – He is a first–time starter, he has a trainer who wins 21% of the races in debut maiden SpWt races, his breeding suits today’s sprint distance and he has a 4f bullet workout on Jun-29.
Longshot:
2 – Roxton – He is a first–time starter whose Dam has 1 winner from 2 starters and he has high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
3 – Day of Days
6 – Cappetta
$.50 Pick 4: All/3,6/1,9/6,9,10 – Cost $48.00
Race 8
3 – Shadow Box – He drops in class today; his early speed running style helps chances and the shorter distance should help and he has the highest speed figure at today’s distance.
6 – Mil Doscientos – He has two wins at PARX Racing and he can handle the distance.
1 – Modern Midas – He has a high % winning jockey, the rail post is winning at a 19% clip, he has the highest last race speed rating (tie) and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Longshot:
2 – Porsupuesto – He can handle PARX Racing, finishing in the money in 47% of the races, and the distance will not be a problem as he has finished in the money in 67% of the races.
Alternate:
4 – Rockin Freebee
5 – Summer Ash
Race 9-Female
1 – Confirmed Star – She finished in the money in four races of her last five starts, winning two of the races and she has high % winning trainer and jockey.
9 – True Phenomenon – She has won two races in a row and is now going for a hat trick and she has high % winning trainer.
2 – Sundria – She finished in the money in her five out of seven career races, winning two races, drops in class today and she has high % winning trainer.
Longshot:
5 – Summer’s Gift – She finished 4th in his last race as the favorite but has a high % winning trainer who wins 22% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again, and she has high % winning jockey.
Race 10-Female
9 – Indy’s Golden Girl – She ran 2nd vs similar in her last race, she has a high % winning trainer who wins 27% of the races in maiden claiming races.
10 – Dixie Music – She finished 2nd vs similar in her last race, she has the highest last race speed rating and he has a high % winning jockey.
6 – So Steady – She drops in class today, her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and she has a high % winning trainer.
Longshot:
3 – Be My Queen – She drops in class today and her early speed running style helps chances.
Alternate:
2 – The Last Jet
Best Bet of the Day at PARX Racing – 5th Race
5 – Fast Mule
Rich’s Picks:
Race 1: 5 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed, 55% w2w – PP: 1-3 Penalty, 4-7 Fair, 8+ Best
6 – MARION GRACE – top ES and LS – going to be 1/5
8 – AWESOME PAL – stayed closer longer in her last
3 – SEVEN YEARS LATER – major signs of life in her last in May, since two of her best works – upset coming?
7 – VANISHING FAITH – biggest class dropper and tough call over the 9
Race 2: 7 Furlongs – Bias: Stalkers, 18% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2/3 Best, 4+ Discount
6 – DIXIE GROOVE – cutting back to 7f from 1m70y could be key
2 – AKNA – most back class, potentially better in 2nd up and should be on the pace
5 – LULI’S DANCER – consistent performer also cutting back – but Distance 5/0-0-3
1 – CUP OF LIFE – could sneak out to the lead in the 3rd up
Race 3: 1 Mile 70 Yards – Bias: Early Speed, 40% w2w – PP: Rail Small Discount, 2/3 Small Bonus, 4-7 Small Discount, 8+ Small Bonus
– hard to see past the top 2 as they have way outperformed the rest
6 – EDGE OF GLORY – Ness/Silvera – dynamic jy/tr duo – drops in class – best PARX numbers and it’s not close
5 – DUDLEY DICKERSON – beat the top pick 2 races back, rerun and he win, but more inconsistent
3 – SHOULDHAVEBEENGONE – maybe gets to the lead and never gives it up
4 – MAJOR CAM – better from the middle out in his last – needs a better start
Race 4: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed, 35% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2/3 Fair, 4+ Discount Inside Better
3 – NUEDORF – top TOTAL PACE +5 – faster early at 6 1/2f v 6 last out, back to 6f helps
5 – RABBIT -3rd after a layoff and new barn hits at 20% off the claim
4 – BORRACHO CONCHO – also ran faster in his last, much better EP
1 – T’WAS THE NIGHT – another 5 horse race, can’t leave the longest shot out of my picks
Race 5: 1 Mile Turf – Bias: 1 Race won by Co-Pilot from the Rail
9 – CATTI LA BELLE – smashing win in last, off track and turf record says she should prosper today
5 – FAST MULE – last two turf races are close to what’s needed to win at this level
10 – SOLEMN OATH – won the last time PACO rode – likely better in 2nd up and has best turf back class
3 – COLOR CRUSH – Parx Turf – 4/0-0-3 – surely been facing better
Race 6: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Stalkers, 31% w2w – PP: Strong Rail Bonus, 2+ Inside Out Edge
7 – BUCKS SOME – lowest level in last 10 with better EP in last – do worry that she regressed a little in her last and tends to regress a few races in a row before a rebound
4 – CAPTIVATING CARA – beat the top pick in April – and unlike the 7 – improved in last and tends to stack improvements
6 – MAZAL EIGHTEEN – much better in her last race with PACO – w2w and geared down – could be LONE E if PACO takes her to the front again
1 – LUNA T -has the strong rail edge and is running the right distance for her 6/1-2-2
Race 7: 4 ½ Furlongs – Bias: 2 Races – 1 2w2 the other Closed, 1 win from 2/3 the other 4-7
6 – CAPPETTA – can’t ignore the bullet and go – 4f in 47.1 at PARX – best workout
5 – HIDDEN MOTIVE – another bullet and go – breeding and trainer for 1sters is excellent
2 – ROXTON – decent works, decent breeding and trainer
1 – LOTTA CHARLIE – same as the 2 but lower odds
Race 8: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed, 35% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2/3 Fair, 4+ Discount Inside Better
3 – SHADOW BOX – on the lead at the lowest level of his career, going to get bought, maybe needs a rest as the last two – ewww – but rebounded to win the only other time he had 2 bad in a row
1 – MODERN MIDAS – horse is headed in the right direction and jy/tr combo have a +4.20 ROI in a handful or races together – why not with the rail advantage
6 – MIL DOSCIENTOS – 3rd up, last was awful – problem for the ML fav is he tends to run a few bad ones in a row before coming back to form
2 – PORSUPUESTO – right distance for this guy – 12/2-5-3
Race 9: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed, 35% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2/3 Fair, 4+ Discount Inside Better
5 – SUMMER’S GIFT – taking a flyer, debut at Parx was stellar, tried AW at Turfway– something went wrong, nothing is wrong with a series of blistering works at PARX prepping
1 – CONFIRMED STAR – never off the board in 7 at Parx or the distance 4/1-3-0
2 – SUNDRIA – been off form almost a year, drops from a competitive NGST effort and June 15th works says she comes back firing
9 – TRUE PHENOMENON – proper distance 8/2-2-3 and one of the most consistent performers in the race
Race 10: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed, 35% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2/3 Fair, 4+ Discount Inside Better
10 – DIXIE MUSIC – top LRSP# +7 – better fractions at 7f vs 6f – cut back helps
3 – BE MY QUEEN – biggest class dropper – to the lead and never gives it up?
7 – NORHO’S GAMBLE – big early pace pop in his last – cutting back in distance helps as last race was his best race by a long way
6 – SO STEADY – tough call over the 9 – but the 9 is a Penn shipper and you know how I feel about that
