Parx Full Card Tips, Analysis and Suggested Wagers
$100 Challenge – Suggested Wagers for Parx on a $100 Budget
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: Thistledown
Parx Horse Racing Picks and Comments
Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapping
Race 1
2 – Knock Out Kid – She drops off claim, has the highest speed figure at today’s distance, switches to a high % jockey and the trainer/jockey combo in last 14 days has won three out of five races.
5 – Boca Royalty – She has finished in the money in her last three races, finishing 3rd vs similar in her last race.
3 – Seamialaugh – She ran 2nd vs similar in her last race and has the highest Prime Power number.
Longshot:
7 – Lulinda’s Heart – She finished 5th in her last race taking up sharply at the 3/8’s pole which affected her run, and she has a high % winning trainer.
Alternate:
1 – Shiny Penny
6 – Sugar Streak
Bet: $1.00 DD: 2,3,5,7/4,6
Race 2
4 – Jebologist – He drops in class today and has a high % winning trainer who wins 27% of the races when his horses are in a claiming race and the shorter distance will only help.
6 – Hornbeam – He has finished in the money in eight out of his last nine races, finishing 3rd vs similar in his last race.
3 – Cousin Andrew – He won his last race at PARX Racing, has the highest last race speed rating and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
2 – Bailey – He has a high % winning jockey, can improve at the shorter distance as he has the highest speed figure at today’s distance.
Alternate:
5 – Lazaretto
Bet: $.50 Pick 4 -2nd race #4,6 – 3rd race #2,4 – 4th race #1,4 – 5th race #1,4,6,7,9
Race 3
4 – Bet On Drama – She drops in class today, has the highest last race speed rating, her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and has a trainer who wins 18% of the maiden – claiming races he has an entry in.
2 – Little Doyle – She ran 2nd vs similar in her last race, should improve while returning to a sprint and has a high % winning trainer who in the last 14 days has this record (6 2-1-0).
3 – Anacarava – She should improve while returning to dirt, drops in class today and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
5 – Only Girl – Her best dirt speed is faster than the avg winning speed.
Alternate:
6 – Cousin Marie
1 – No Sugar Please
Bet: None
Race 4
1 – Sir Cupid – He has finished in the money in six out of his last seven races, winning one of the races and has the highest last race speed rating.
4 – Vindicato – He won his last race at PARX Racing and has a high % jockey.
3 – Lucky Mucho Man – He finished 3rd in his last race and has the second highest Prime Power number.
Longshot:
7 – Wispering Springs – He has the highest speed figure at today’s distance, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters, and he has a good 4F workout July-11.
Alternate:
6 – Duck Ducky Goose
Bet: – $.50 Pick 4 – 4th race #1 – 5th race #1,4,6,9 – 6th race #9,11,14 – 7th #2,3,4,6,7 9
Race 5
6 – Warrior’s Ransom – He has won two races in a row going for a hat trick and has a high % winning trainer who in the last 14 days has this record (30 11-5-6).
9 – Distorted View – He won his last race at PARX Racing, has the highest last race speed rating and his best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters.
4 – Catalon – He has finished in the money in eight out of his last ten races, winning three, drops in class today and has a high % winning trainer.
Longshot:
1 – Majestic Creed – He ran 2nd (on Dirt) in his last race.
Bet: None
Race 6
9 – Dalton – She has finished in the money in four out of her last five races starts.
14 – Fast Breakin Cash – She won her last race at PARX Racing, has the highest last race speed rating and has a high % winning trainer and jockey and this combo in the last 14 days has won four races out of six starts.
11 – Mischievous Juan – She has won the last two races in a row and is now going for a hat trick.
Longshot:
4 – French Toast – She does well on the dirt winning three races out of seven starts.
Bet: None
Race 7
3 – Jeanne Marie – She ran 2nd vs similar in her only start, has a high % winning trainer and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
6 – Jody’s Ruby – She finished 3rd vs similar in her only start and has a high % winning trainer and switches to a high % jockey.
2 – Bay Bay Birdie – She is a first-time starter whose Dam has 4 winners from 4 starters and breeding suits today’s sprint distance.
Longshot:
4 – Normandy Life – She is a first-time starter who has a high % winning jockey and a bullet 4f workout on July 11th.
Alternate:
7 – One Eyed Jackie
9 – Ringer Card
Bet: $.50 Pick 4 – 7th #2,3,4,6 – 8th race # 1,2 – 9th race # 4,9 – 10th # 1,4,7,9
Race 8
1 – Out Dancing – She has won three out of the last four races, the rail post is winning at an 18% clip, and she has a high % winning trainer and a high % jockey.
2 – Golden Tabby – She has won six out of nine starts at PARX Racing and has a high % winning trainer whose horses win 26% of the races in the first start with the trainer after being claimed.
8 – Peyton Elizabeth – She won her last race at PARX Racing, her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie), she has a high % winning trainer and jockey and this combo in last 14 days has won four races out of six starts.
Longshot:
9 – Mia Tosca – She finished 3rd in her last race and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
7 – Single Lady
4 – Cartouche
Bet: None
Race 9
9 – Far Mo Power – He ran 2nd in his last race as the favorite but has a high % winning trainer who wins 24% of the starts when bringing beaten favorite back to race again, has the highest last race speed rating and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s.
4 – Irish Exit – He likes the track finishing in the money in 86% of the races and winning 31% of the starts and likes the distance finishing in the money in 81% of the races and winning 45% of the starts.
7 – Too Boss – His drops in class today and has won three races out six starts at PARX Racing.
Longshot:
1 – Eloquist – He is eligible to improve in 2nd start since layoff, the rail post is winning at a 19% clip, he has a bullet 4F workout on July-10 and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
6 – Market Maven
Bet: None
Race 10
1 – Sophos – He has won two out of the last three races, the rail post is winning at 18% clip and the distance will not be a problem.
4 – Little Harbour – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race as the favorite but has a trainer who wins 33% of the starts when bringing beaten favorite back to race again and has the highest last race speed rating.
9 – Osprey – He drops in class today, has a high % winning trainer and switches to a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
7 – One Slick Start – He won his last race at PARX Racing and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
8 – Manolete
5 – Jw’s Third Mischie
Rich’s Ranks
Race 1: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed – 31% w2w – PP: Inside 3 Bias, 4-7 Discount, 8+ Fair
2 – KNOCK OUT KID – has back speed, dropping multiple classes, 36% vs 31% for tr Michael Pino
3 – SEAMIALAUGH – just missed at this level in 1st up, maybe better in round 2 off the bench
5 – BOCA ROYALTY – better 6f final time by about a ½ second, going an extra ½ f helps today
8 – GAVICHI – strongest EP/C-zone combo
Suggested Wager: $1 Double: 2/2,3,4,6,7
Race 2: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed – 37% w2w – PP: Fairish 1-7, 8+ Bonus
4 – JEBOLOGIST – lowest level in last 10, weight break for a Ness horse that was better ATB in last
3 – COUSIN ANDREW – smoked in 1st up with better late run, TLRPS# and resume says export more in round two off the bench
2 – BAILEY – not the most successful at PARX, but should be on the front foot, Mychel Sanchez rides here instead of the 7
7 – GENGHIS – tough call over the 6, but has better chance of being forward, decent work between races
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Pick 4: 2,3,4/2,3,4,6,7/1,7/1
Race 3: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed – 37% w2w – PP: Fairish 1-7, 8+ Bonus
2 – LITTLE DOYLE – shows EP and cutting back from a mile should help late stamina
3 – ANACARAVA – only true class dropper in the field as all the rest have tried this level already
4 – BET ON DRAMA – TLRPSP#, dropping in a little in class but has been at this level before 0-26
6 – COUSIN MARIE – top C-zone by a long shot
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Trifecta: 2,3/2,3,4,6,7/2,3,4
Race 4: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed – 37% w2w – PP: Fairish 1-7, 8+ Bonus
1 – SIR CUPID – TLRSP# by a decent margin, but nothing others haven’t reached, most consistent in the race
7 – WISPERING SPRINGS – this one is likely to be the pacesetter and has a fast work on July 11
4 – VINDICATO – coming off the maiden win in first race at PARX – won with some left in the tank
3 – LUCKY MUCHO MAN – same owner/trainer – Z Pattern in last
Suggested Wager: $1 Exacta Key Box: 7/1,3,4
Race 5: 7 ½ Turf – OFF – 1 Mile – Bias: Early Speed – 44% w2w – PP: Inside Out Bias
1 – MAJESTIC CREED – 3rd off the break and move to dirt helps post, late time she ran 1 mile on dirt won by 15
4 – CATALON – drops in class, should be on the gas from go
9 – DISTORTED VIEW – TLRSP# and in 3rd off the bench, was a lot better in last time wise
6 – WARRIOR’S RANSOM – trainer wanted in this race MTO, a neck from winning three on a row on dirt
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Trifecta: 1,4/1,4,6,9,7/1,4,9
Race 6: 7 ½ Turf – OFF – 1 Mile – Bias: Early Speed – 44% w2w – PP: Inside Out Bias
13 – RON DON SCORESE – lowest level in last 10 – consistently strong SP#s for this group, off track 8/3-2-3
14 – FAST BREAKIN CASH – down in class, two big wins in row, Jamie Ness and Mychel Sanchez winner 8/15 together – outside post could hurt
3 – AMIGOS GUITAR – might not deserve to be rated this high – but you cannot ignore inside speed at 1 mile dirt
11 – MISCHIEVOUS JUAN – lone PC type with plenty of speed in front – extra distance is going to help
Race 7: 4 ½ Furlongs – Bias: 6 Races – 4 w2w – PP: 1 winner 2/3 – 5 from 4-7
3 – JEANNE MARIE – TLRSP# – decently bet in debut, maintenance work between races
6 – JODY’S RUBY – Paco Lopez gets on today, finished behind top pick in last – decent work between races
2 – BAY BAY BIRDIE – decent works for debut – tr Robert Reid Jr wins at 24% starting in MSW
4 – NORMANDY LIFE – bullet and go, but at Penn
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Pick 4: 2,3,6/1,2,8/6,7,9/4,5,7,9
Race 8: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed – 31% w2w – PP: Inside 3 Bias, 4-7 Discount, 8+ Fair
2 – GOLDEN TABBY – PC type that could be pacesetter if need be, 3rd off the bench, 1st off the claim tr Lee Hasleem, 27% v 16% overall
1 – OUT DANCING – TLRSP# on hot rail, all or nothing type – Parx 12/5-0-1, Distance 7/4-0-1
8 – PEYTON ELIZABETH – Lone EP, 3rd up for that Ness/Sanchez combo again, cut back in distance should help
9 – MIA TOSCA – been heading the wrong way, but PARX 10/3-2-4 – Tom type horse
Race 9: 1 Mile 70 Yards – Bias: Early Speed – 30% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2-7 Fair, 8+ Penalty
9 – FAR MO POWER – TLRSP# , resume says better in round 2 off the bench, by far lowest level in last 10
6 – MARKET MAVEN – right distance 4/3-0-1, won with ease in two at close to this level
7 – TOO BOSS – dropping from a couple of NGSTK races, PARX 6/3-1-0, Distance 3/2-0-0 – don’t see tr Todd Pletcher running many at Parx
4 – IRISH EXIT – considerably better in 2nd half of last race, maybe shows more in 2nd up
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Superfecta: 6,9/6,9/1,4,7,8,10/4,7
Race 10: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed – 31% w2w – PP: Inside 3 Bias, 4-7 Discount, 8+ Fair
9 – OSPREY – Paco hops on today, all or nothing at Parx 8/3-0-0, down in class in 2nd up, won with ease last time close to this level
7 – ONE SLICK START – distance 6/2-2-2, better ATB in last
4 – LITTLE HARBOUR – TLRSP# – better times at 6 1/2f v 6f – top Total Pace horse
5 – JW’S THIRD MISCHIE – shot at being a lone E – drops in class in 2nd off the claim for tr Alfredo Velazquez – winner 6/20
