Parx Full Card Tips, Analysis and Suggested Wagers
$100 Challenge – Suggested Wagers for Parx on a $100 Budget
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: Presque Isle Downs
Parx Picks and Comments
Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapping
Race 1
1 – Hip Hop Hooray – She has won the last two races in a row and is now going for a hat trick, has the highest last race speed rating, has a high % winning trainer.
7 – Back to D’ Future – She won last race at PARX Racing, switches to a high % winning trainer who wins 35% of the races when dropping a horse in class after claiming the horse, switches to a high % winning jockey and the trainer/jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (6 3-1-1).
2 – Wicked Lady – Her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
3 – Smarty Pants Sandy – She has a high % winning trainer.
Bet: $1.00 DD: 1,2,7/2,4,7
Race 2
4 – Surcharge – She comes in from Aqueduct to try PARX Racing, switches to a high % winning trainer who wins 23% of the races when dropping a horse down 2+ classes after claiming the horse.
7 – Coach Has Six Aces – She has a high % winning jockey Paco Lopez, has a high % winning trainer and the shorter distance may help.
2 – Wishing Ona Prayer – She has won two out of three career races; she appears to be able to lead or come from off the pace to win a race and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
5 – Boss Like Beth – She has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Alternate:
3 – Debbie’s Surprise
Bet: $.50 Pick 4 -2nd race #4,7 – 3rd race #2,3,4,6 – 4th race #4,6,8 – 5th race #3,6,7
Race 3
4 – Peyton’s College – She has won three races out of the last seven starts at PARX Racing, winning the last start, she has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and has a high % winning jockey.
3 – Dia de Sol – She has finished in the money in six races out of the last seven starts, winning two, drops in class today and has a high % winning trainer.
2 – Twirling Wind – She finished 3rd vs similar in her last race, has an early speed running style and can improve at the shorter distance.
Longshot:
6 – Mazal Eighteen – She ran 2nd vs similar in her last race, her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie) and she has a high % winning jockey who in the last 7 days has this record (15 4-3-0).
Alternate:
1 – Flava’s Dream
8 – Powwa of Love
Bet: None
Race 4
8 – Screen Saver – He has won the last two races in a row and is now going for a hat trick at PARX Racing, has high % winning trainer Jamie Ness and high % winning jockey Ruben Silvera.
6 – Hidden Promise – He takes a large drop-in class today and has a high % winning trainer.
4 – Celtic Treasure – He has won four races at PARX Racing and switches to a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
5 – Emperor’s Cause- He has won the last three races at PARX Racing and has a high % winning trainer.
Alternate:
1 – Indirectly
Bet: – $.50 Pick 4 – 4th race #4,6,8 – 5th race #3,6,7 – 6th race #4,9- 7th #6,7,8
Race 5
3 – Mantaketheblesings – He has finished in the money in his two career races at PARX Racing, finishing 3rd vs similar in his last race and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
7 – Lost and Confused – He is a first-time starter, has a high % winning trainer and a high % winning jockey and this trainer/jockey combo in the last 14 days has this record (16 4-3-2) and a good 4F workout on July-12.
6 – We Got Barnyard – He is a first-time starter whose Dam has 4 winners from 4 starters and has a bullet 5f workout on 05 July.
Longshot:
5 – Clancy O’Toole – He is a first-time starter, has a high % winning trainer and a bullet 5f workout on 05 July.
Alternate:
8 – Whiskeyromeosierra
9 – Jiggery Pokery
Bet: None
Race 6
9 – Dream Chaser – She finished 3rd (on Dirt) in her last race and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
4 – A Case of You – She finished 3rd (on Dirt) in her last race on the dirt, and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
6 – Lindalovesgold – She has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
3 – Gingers Wish – She has a win at PARX Racing.
Bet: None
Race 7
8 – Steal the Deal – She is a first-time starter whose Dam has 2 winners from 2 starters and 1 stakes winner, and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
7 – Velvet Vixen – She is a first-time starter whose Dam has 3 winners from 5 starters, and she has a high % winning trainer who wins 21% of the races with 1st time starters.
6 – Vanellope – She is a first-time starter whose Dam has 5 winners from 6 starters and her Sire wins 18% of the races with 1st time starters.
Longshot:
4 – Wild Creation – She in her debut race after taking up on the far turn and has a bullet 4f workout on July 11th.
Alternate:
2 – Little Coal
5 – Peach Tea
Bet: $.50 Pick 4 – 7th #2,4,5,6,7,8 – 8th race # 14 – 9th race # 7 – 10th # 8,9
Race 8
14 – Steely Danza – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race, he can either lead or come from off the pace to win a race, has the highest speed figure at today’s distance, he switches to a high % jockey.
11 – Fox Red – He has an early foot, has the highest last race speed rating (tie) and switches to a high % jockey.
7 – Tuff Constitution – He has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
6- Tuff Constitution – He has has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Bet: None
Race 9
7 – Bourbon Bon Bay – She is undefeated in 4 career starts, drops in class today and has a trainer who wins 35% of the races after winning its last race.
1 – Sweet Willemina – She finished 3rd vs tougher in her last race, drops in class today, the rail post is winning at a 18% clip and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
8 – Early Edition – She won three races in a row and then tried the turf with disappointing results and now returns to the dirt and to a sprint.
Longshot:
5 – Centre Court Champ – She loves being the bridesmaid finishing 2nd in five out of seven races in 2023 and she has the highest speed figure at today’s distance.
Alternate:
6 – Olivia Darling
4 – Shero
Bet: None
Race 10
8 – Excursion – He is always in the mix finishing in the money in his last five races, drops in class today and has a trainer who wins 40% of the races when dropping a horse down 2+ classes.
9 – Social Group – He drops in class today, his early speed running style helps his chances and should improve while returning to a route.
7 – Super Dude – He drops in class today, has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
2 – Scotty – He is returning to a route which may help, and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
10 – Plamen
1 – Call Fitzroy
Rich’s Ranks
Race 1: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed – 37% w2w – PP: Fairish 1-7, 8+ Bonus
1 – HIP HOP HOORAY – TLRSP# and 3rd up and winner two in a row
2 – WICKED LADY – Paco on the class drop, better ATB in last and 3sp# increases
7 – BACK TO D’ FUTURE – MCL win in 10th try, better 6f time by about 1 second, distance 6/1-4-0
3 – SMARTY PANTS SANDY – showed some signs of improvement in last and gets a weight break today
Race 2: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed – 37% w2w – PP: Fairish 1-7, 8+ Bonus
7 – COACH HAS SIX ACES – all or nothing horse, Paco rides at the lowest level of career – 1 scratching help
2 – WISHING ONA PRAYER – lowest level in career, winner at lone trip at the distance
4 – SURCHARGE – class and track dropper, June 14th work at Parx says she likes the track
5 – BOSS LIKE BETH – lone EP horse, should not be far off the pace, top LP and drops
Race 3: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed – 31% w2w – PP: Inside 3 Bias, 4-7 Discount, 8+ Fair
3 – DIA DE SOL – dropping in class after coming from TB and GP, tr Alfredo Velazquez 30% 2nd off the claim – cutting back to 6 1/2f might be the key – been running routes but might be a sprinter
4 – PEYTON’S COLLEGE – strong in the middle out last race, Parx 7/3-1-0, everywhere else 10/0-3-4
6 – MAZAL EIGHTEEN – should be pacesetter, best efforts come up front, more late energy in last
8 – POWWA OF LOVE – will also try to set the tone, weight break with Sofia
Race 4: 1 Mile – Bias: Early Speed – 38% w2w – PP: Inside Out Bias, Big Penalty 8+
8 – SCREEN SAVER – TLRSP# by a wide margin – EP horse with an aggressive LP edge vs this group, if he close into the stretch, tough to hold off
5 – EMPEROR’S CAUSE – winner 3 in a row – Parx 7/3-2-0 – ran 1m about 1 second faster
4 – CELTIC TREASURE – tough call over the 6, going to take Paco and the horse that’s done better at the distance
6 – HIDDEN PROMISE – ML fav but looks vulnerable
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Pick 4: 8/5,7,8/5,6,9/1,3,6,7,8
Race 5: 4 ½ Furlongs – Bias: 7 Races – 4 w2w – PP: 2 winners 2/3 – 5 from 4-7
8 – WHISKEYROMEOSIERRA – Top Pedigree and the July 5 work 3f in 35.2 is fast
7 – LOST AND CONFUSED – Silvera/Ness and probably the strongest Parx work
5 – CLANCY O’TOOLE -– bullet and go but Tr Daniel Velazquez light on winning MSW debuts
3 – MANTAKETHEBLESINGS – not far from winning both races so far – but had two chances to win already
Race 6: 1 1/16 Turf – OFF – maybe look like 1 Mile 70 Yards – Bias: Early Speed – 30% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2-7 Fair, 8+ Penalty
6 – LINDALOVESGOLD – going to be out front, likely better in 2nd up and a maintenance work between
9 – DREAM CHASER – Left Arrow Horse – Paco again, if the 6 isn’t first, this one will be – fast 6/1-2-1
5 – CARLOTUK – chance to improve in 3rd after a layoff, back class at GP
4 – A CASE OF YOU – likely to improve 2nd up
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Pick 5: 5,6,9/1,6,7,8/11,14/1,6,7/8,9
Race 7: 4 ½ Furlongs – Bias: 7 Races – 4 w2w – PP: 2 winners 2/3 – 5 from 4-7
8 – STEAL THE DEAL – June 16th work 4f in 48.2 is strong, tr Robert Reid Jr winner 24% MSW 1st timer
7 – VELVET VIXEN – tr Cathal Lynch hits at 22% with MSW 1st timers, good works pattern getting ready
6 – VANELLOPE – top pedigree with steady works
1 – MYGIRLISABOMB – June 3rd work, 3f in 35.3 is fast enough
3 – MY STARSHIP – drops in class and comes in from Belmont
Race 8: 5 Furlongs Turf – OFF
14 – STEELY DANZA – has a +14 Total Pace Edge as the lone EP – runs back two races, easy win
11 – FOX RED – third up, better late in last, Paco, 2sp# increases, tie TLRPS# with 14
7 – TUFF CONSTITUTION – fast track 4/1-1-1 coming off a race that was a lot better than it looks, similar times at 1m70y as 6f – both on turf
6 – O’BRIEN – all that’s left
Race 9: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed – 31% w2w – PP: Inside 3 Bias, 4-7 Discount, 8+ Fair
6 – OLIVIA DARLING – track and class dropper, blazing mid pace numbers – Paco in 3rd after a layoff
1 – SWEET WILLEMINA – winner 9/15 at Parx, down from NGST after running faster fractions
7 – BOURBON BON BAY – unbeaten in 4, all 1st up efforts like today,
5 – CENTRE COURT CHAMP – tough call over the 8, but a little better Parx and Distance numbers
Race 10: 1 Mile 70 Yards – Bias: Early Speed – 30% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2-7 Fair, 8+ Penalty
8 – EXCURSION – dropping in class, just missed at this level 2 back to the 9
9 – SOCIAL GROUP – should chase the pace at the start – all the speed is outside and is a concern, beat top pick 2 back
7 – SUPER DUDE – class dropper, weight break and cut back in distance helps
5 – ABUELO NUNO – can’t ignore lone P, going back to a route should help, plenty of back class
