PARX Full Card Tips, Analysis and Suggested Wagers
$100 Challenge – Suggested Wagers for PARX on a $100 Budget
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: Arapahoe Park
Parx Picks and Comments
Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapping
Race 1
6 – Plenty of Time – He finished 3rd vs tougher in his last race, switches to a high% trainer who wins 35% of the races when dropping a horse off a claim, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie) and he has a high % jockey who in the last 7 days has this record (9 4-2-1).
7 – Marvelousmoondance – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race, has the highest last race speed rating and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).
1 – Dudley Dickerson – He has a high % winning trainer who wins 30% of the races when taking a horse from a maiden race to a maiden – claiming race, drops in class today and the post is winning at a 19% clip.
Longshot:
4 – Retweet – He has finished 2nd in his last two races, and he has a trainer who in the last 14 days has this record (11 4-2-0).
Alternate:
2 – Winged Foot
5 – Whiskey Prize
Bet: $1.00 DD: 1,4,6,7/3,8
Race 2
8 – News Box – He has won two out of the last three races, he has the highest last race speed rating and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
3 – Much Better – He drops in class today, he has the highest speed figure at today’s distance, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and has a high % winning trainer and jockey and this combo in the last 14 days has this record (10 5-1-0).
6 – My Devils Child – He has finished in the money in six out of his last six races, finishing 2nd only losing by a neck in his last race.
Longshot:
7 – Puttheglassdown – He finished 3rd in his last race, has the highest last race speed rating and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Alternate:
4 – Portal One
1 – Jarlian
Bet: $.50 Pick 4 -2nd race #3,8 – 3rd race #1,2,4,5 – 4th race #1,4,7 – 5th race #2,4
Race 3
2 – Lookinatlightening – She ran 2nd in her last race winning the race before that and has a high % winning trainer.
5 – Total Discretion – She finished 3rd in her last race and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
4 – Bet of the Century – She drops-in class today and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
1 – Riverview – She was claimed in her last race by a high % winning trainer who wins 35% of the races when dropping a horse off a claim, switches to a high % winning jockey and the rail post is winning at a 21% clip.
Alternate:
6 – Be Water
Bet: None
Race 4
1 – He’ssosubtle – He has been knocking at the door finishing 2nd vs similar in his last race as the favorite but has a has a high % winning trainer who wins 24% of the starts when bringing beaten favorite back to race again and has a high % winning jockey.
4 – Louie’s Law – He did not like the turf in his last race and moves back to the dirt, he has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
7 – Hornswoggle – He drops in class today; he has a high % winning trainer who wins 31% of the races when taking a horse down 2+ classes.
Longshot:
6 – Lawlessness – He drops in class today, switches to a high % winning jockey and as a high % winning trainer.
Bet: – $.50 Pick 4 – 4th race #1,4,7 – 5th race #2,4- 6th race #6 – 7th #4,7,8,9
Race 5
4 – Strawberry Cone – He won his last race at PARX Racing, has the highest last race speed rating and his highest speed figure at today’s distance.
2 – True Dakotan – He likes PARX Racing finishing in the money in 58% of his starts, winning 18% of the races and likes the distance, finishing in the money in 100% of the starts has a high % winning trainer.
7 – Splitzville – He is a closer who with a better start will close to try and win the race.
Longshot:
5 – Mr. Briggs – He ran 2nd in his last race and has a high % winning trainer.
Alternate:
3 – Meru
Bet: $1.00 Exacta 4/2,4,5,7
Race 6
6 – Iconic Legacy – He won his last race at PARX Racing, drops in class today and has a high % winning trainer who wins 100% of the races when he drops a horse off a win.
7 – Jump Shot – He finished 4th after having a wide trip going into the stretch in his last race and switches to a high % winning jockey.
5 – Masrour – He won his last race at PARX Racing, has the highest last race speed rating and a trainer and jockey combo who in the last 14 days has this record (3 2-0-0).
Longshot:
4 – Chain Reaction – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race.
Bet: $20.00 Win: #6
Race 7
9 – Neecie Marie – She has won two races out of her last three starts, has a high % winning trainer, switches to high % winning jockey Paco Lopez and her best turf speed are fastest among today’s starters.
7 – Istria – She ran 2nd in her last race as the favorite but has a high % winning trainer who wins 34% of the starts when bringing beaten favorite back to race again and has a high % jockey.
4 – On the Shortlist – She has won two races in a row and is going for a hat trick, and she has a high % winning trainer who wins 21% of the starts when shipping a horse in to run.
Longshot:
8 – Vanilla Bean – She has finished in the money in her last three races, winning the last one easily.
Alternate:
1 – Warrior’s Ransom
Bet: $.50 Pick 4 – 7th #7,9 – 8th race # 1,2 – 9th race # 3,4,7,8 – 10th # 2,5,9,10
Race 8
2 – Princess Sophie – She has finished in the money in nine races out of her twelve starts at PARX Racing, winning six of the races, and she has a high % winning trainer and a high % jockey.
1 – Beach Daze – She tried turf, was bumped and finished 9th and now returns to the dirt where she has done well at in the past and the rail post is winning at a 18% clip.
6 – Flashndynamite – She won her last race at Parx Racing, she has the highest speed figure at today’s distance, her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters, and she has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
7 – Cairo Sugar – She drops in class today, her early speed running style helps chances and she switches high % winning jockey.
Bet: None
Race 9
7 – Recycle – He ran 7th in his last race as the favorite but has a high % winning trainer who wins 25% of the starts when bringing beaten favorite back to race again, returns to Parx Racing where he is only a nose from winning his last two starts on the turf and his best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters.
4 – Windsor Gold – He finished in the money in his last six starts, winning two of the races and the shorter distance may be a plus.
3 – A Western Yarn – He had a terrible last race breaking out at the start, getting bumped and carried out so throw out that race, prior to that race he had won two out of three starts, drops in class today and has a bullet 4f workout on July 8th.
Longshot:
8 – Winnin’onweekends – He did not seem to like the mud and now back to a surface where he had just won by 17 lengths and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
9 – Mitropanos
Bet: None
Race 10
9 – Skyhook – He ran 4th in his last race, has a high % winning trainer and can improve with blinkers added today.
6 – Eddiemush – He switches to a high % winning trainer and switches to a high % winning jockey.
10 – The Grayt Pumpkin – He drops in class today and can improve while returning to dirt.
Longshot:
5 – Bubby Papermaker – He drops in class today, switches to a high % jockey and can improve while returning to dirt.
Bet: None
Rich’s Ranks
Race 1: 1 Mile – Bias: Early Sped – 38% w2w – PP: Inside 3 Edge, 4-7 Under Par, 8+ Penalty
2 – WINGED FOOT – MSW dropper that could be on the lead with 1st time Lasix
6 – PLENTY OF TIME – track dropper and class dropper, tr Micheal Pino 35% on claim and drop, Parx works have been really good
5 – WHISKEY PRIZE – 1st timer, tr Jamie Ness and jy Mychel Sanchez winner 9/17 together
7 – MARVELOUSMOONDANCE – TLRSP#, won at this level last out, DQd, 2nd by a neck in the prior start, but jy Mychel Sanchez gets off to ride the first timer 5
Suggested Wager: $1 Double 2,5,6/1,4,8
Race 2: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed – 37% w2w – PP: Fairish 1-7, 8+ Bonus
8 – NEWS BOX – TLRSP#, track and class dropper, a couple of decent works between races – top total pace by 6 points
1 – JARLIAN – last race was better than it looks with quicker times, was wide, move inside could help on drop
4 – PORTAL ONE – caught some really fast fractions last out, this one shouldn’t be as fast, most dangerous if she gets out towards the front at the jump
3 – MUCH BETTER – Ness/Silveria should be involved from the start in 3rd off the bench in lowest level in last 10
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Pick 4: 1,8/1,4,6/1,3,4,7/4,6
Race 3: 7 Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed – 31% w2w – PP: Strong Inside 3 Bias, Inside Out 4+
6 – BE WATER – expecting this one to be the pace setter, not sure extra distance helps
4 – BET OF THE CENTURY – TLRSP# and has some EP too, was better last in last – more stamina today
1 – RIVERVIEW – rides the hot rail, drop and claim fr tr Michael Pino, has some back speed and nice work since the claim
3 – REID’S FANGIRL – drops back to a class to a level where she very competitive for the win
Suggested Wager: $1 Exacta: 1,3,4,6/4,6
Race 4: 1 Mile 70 Yards – Bias: Early Speed – 30% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2-7 Fair, 8+ Penalty
1 – HE’SSOSUBTLE – faster fractions at 1 1/16 v 1m70y, cut back in distance helps
4 – LOUIE’S LAW – lowest level in last 10 and has the most back class
3 – GIMMEBACKMYBULLETS – Small drop, likely pacesetter and tied for the top Total Pace
7 – HORNSWOGGLE – Paco on a big class dropper and track dropper
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Pick 4: 1/4,6/5,6/4,6,7,8,9
Race 5: 7 Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed – 31% w2w – PP: Strong Inside 3 Bias, Inside Out 4+
4 – STRAWBERRY CONE – TLRSP# in blowout win, strange drop in class
6 – CAUSES TROUBLE – a nose and a neck away from winning last two at this level, distance is concern
2 – TRUE DAKOTAN – SIM favorite, strong c-zone, cut back in distance where he is 3/0-3-0
8 – KEFI – has some of his best works between races and catches a weight break
Suggested Wager: $1 Exacta: 2,4,6,8/4,6
Race 6: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed – 31% w2w – PP: Inside 3 Bias, 4-7 Discount, 8+ Fair
5 – MASROUR – come off the bench from a 7 month rest and won by 18 with TLRSP# – could improve in round two off the bench
6 – ICONIC LEGACY – better times at 6 1/2f v 6 – distance 9/4-3-0 – drops off a win
1 – REJECTED AGAIN – better ATB in last and still has more upside
7 – JUMP SHOT – faster fractions at 7f v 6, has plenty of back class
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Trifecta: 5,6/1,5,6/1,5,6,7
Race 7: 1 1/16 Miles Turf – Bias: just 2 races, Closers – 0w2w – PP: 1 win from the rail the other 8+
9 – NEECIE MARIE – won with Paco two back, Paco gets back on, drops in class
7 – ISTRIA – by far best speed numbers after switching to grass, a pair of 2nds in two on Parx grass
4 – ON THE SHORTLIST –unbeaten in 2 on grass, we love Erin McClellan around here, but Penn Shipper
8 – VANILLA BEAN – tough call over the 6, but 3 SP# increases vs the 6 regressing badly last out
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Trifecta: 4,7,9/7,9/4,6,7,8,9
Race 8: 1 Mile 70 Yards – Bias: Early Speed – 30% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2-7 Fair, 8+ Penalty
2 – PRINCESS SOPHIE – faster fractions in last, 3rd off the break, distance 6/2-3-0
6 – FLASHNDYNAMITE – TLRSP# in May, pair of OK works since, beast at the distance 14/8-3-0
1 – BEACH DAZE – down from a trio of NGSTK races at Monmouth, rides hot rail, Parx 11/3-5-1
7 – CAIRO SUGAR – drops from 100 NGSTK – much better times last out
Race 9: 7 ½ Furlongs Turf – 1 Race won from Closer on the Rail
10 – JOHN DUTTON – TLRSP# at this level in first trip on turf, missed by a neck, two works between
11 – ROYAL KING – Michael Maker entered 4 at Parx won with 2, been facing tougher
4 – WINDSOR GOLD – first on turf, off track record suggests he will like turf
8 – WINNIN’ONWEEKENDS – drops from 100K NGSTK – light switch horse, when on won easy, when off way back
Suggested Wager: $1 Exacta: 4,8,10,11/10,11
Race 10: 7 Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed – 31% w2w – PP: Strong Inside 3 Bias, Inside Out 4+
9 – SKYHOOK – 3rd up, big improvement in last, should be part of EP
4 – JSK PHARAOH’SREIGN – showed speed two back, move to inside 3 draw could help
6 – EDDIEMUSH – Paco rides in 2nd race at Parx after track dropping
10 – THE GRAYT PUMPKIN – probably the biggest class dropper
Suggested Wager: $1 Exacta: 4,5,6,9,10/4,9
