Saratoga Horse Racing Tips, Commentary, Analysis and Suggested Wagers
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: Belterra Park: https://www.guaranteedtipsheet.com/in…
Free Saratoga Racing Racing Picks
Terry Hollywood Hay’s Picks:
Saratoga – 7-24-2024
Race 1-Female
5 – Shakin the Belle – She ran 2nd vs similar in her last race, her early speed running style helps chances so the shorter distance should help and she has a high % winning jockey.
8 – Conniving – She has finished in the money in two races out of her last three starts and she has a high % winning jockey.
6 – Piccata Prince – She drops in class today; and she can improve while returning to dirt.
Longshot:
4 – Beach Blanket – She drops in class today; she has a high % winning trainer who wins 33% of the races when taking a horse down 2+ classes and she has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
7 – Cowboy Luke
Race 2-Female
10 – Out On Bail – She finished 3rd vs similar (on Dirt) in her last race, breeding suggests she will like the grass, she has a high % winning trainer and jockey and a bullet 4F workout on Jul-19.
7 – Pay the Juice – She is a first–time starter, and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey and a good 4F workout on Jul-17.
1 – Pandemic Hero – She is a first–time starter, the rail post is winning at a 20% clip, she has a high % winning trainer and jockey and the breeding suggests he will like the grass.
Longshot:
3 – Iron Max – She is a first–time starter, she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
9 – Army Proud
$.50 Pick 4: #1,3,7,9,10/3,6,7,9/5/1,6,7,8,9 – Cost $50.00
Race 3 -Female
7 – Malu – She won her last race at Saratoga and she a has a high % winning trainer who wins 23% of the races in the 1st race after claiming a horse and she a has a high % winning jockey.
9 – Chasing Daylight – She ran 2nd vs similar in her last race and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
6 – Mel’s Baby Sister – She ran 2nd vs similar in her last race at Saratoga, and she has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
3 – Echo in Eternity – She has a high % winning trainer and can improve while returning to dirt.
Alternate:
2- Duckphat
Race 4
5 – Barron’s Bounce – He drops in class today and he has high % winning trainer Linda Rice and he has high % winning jockey Irad Ortiz.
9 – Janssen – He drops in class today, can improve while returning to dirt and he has high % winning jockey.
10 – Irie Man – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race and he has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
8 – Stanley Rough – He ran 2nd vs tougher in his last race and he has high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
4 – Jake’s Orchard
Race 5
8 – Sanderson – He has a high % winning trainer who wins 25% of the claiming races he has a horse running in and he has a high % winning jockey and blinkers are added today.
9 – Union Express – He finished in the money in four races of his five career starts, finishing 3rd in his last race at Aqueduct and he has a good 4F workout on Jul-15.
6 – Scat Tu Tap – He finished in the money in two out of his last three races, winning one of the starts and he drops in class today.
Longshot:
1 – Internal Capital – He finished 3rd in his last race, should improve while returning to the Turf as his best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters and blinkers are added today.
Alternate:
Race 6-Female
7 – Overacting – She finished a disappointing 6th after being bumped at the start and experiencing other problems during her last race, finishing in the money in the previous four career races, winning two and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
3 – Spooky Lady – She finished in the money in eight races of her last ten starts, winning two of the races and she has a high % winning jockey.
5 – Spinning Colors – She has finished in the money in two races of her last three starts, winning two of the starts and she has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
6 – Can’t Fool Me – She won her last race at Aqueduct and best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie) her has a high % winning trainer.
Alternate:
14 – Cinderella’s Cause
2 – Im Just Kiddin
$.50 Pick 4: 2,3,5,6,7/1,4,5,6,8 /2/2,4,7,8 – Cost $50.00
Race 7
6 – Spirit Wind – He has won six out of eleven career races, winning the last start and he has high % winning trainer and he has high % winning jockey Mike Smith.
8 – Munnys Gold – He won his last race at Saratoga; his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and he has a high % trainer and jockey.
1 – Accede – He has won three races in a row, he has high % winning trainer and jockey and a good 4F workout on Jul-18.
Longshot:
4 – Clearly Unhinged – He has won two races in a row and is now going for a hat trick and he has high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
5 – Sterling Silver
7 – Hot Fudge
Bet: $10.00 Win: # 6 – $4.00 DD: 6/2
Race 8-Female
2 – Bourbon Day – She has won five out of the last ten races and she has high % winning trainer who wins 32% of the claiming races he has a horse running in and switches to a high % winning jockey.
13 – Mystic Night – She has a high % winning trainer who wins 23% of the races in the 1st race after claiming a horse and she a has a high % winning jockey and the highest speed figure at today’s distance.
11 – Paros – She won her last race at Aqueduct and she has high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
14 – Gun Maestro- She has won three races out of the last four starts and returning to a route may help.
Alternate:
4- American Diamond – She drops in class today, she has high % winning trainer and jockey.
5- Street Ready – She drops in class today, she has high % winning trainer and jockey and she has a bullet 5F workout on Jul-13.
Bet: $10.00 Win: # 2
Race 9 -Female
4 – Lucky and Gorgeous – She ran 2nd vs similar in her last race, she has the highest last race speed rating, her best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie) and she has high % winning jockey.
7 – Lu’s Redemption – She drops in class today, the trainer who wins 31% of the races in the 3rd race off a layoff and her best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).
2 – Quite Continental – She has high % winning trainer who wins 36% of the races when taking a horse from a maiden to a maiden claiming race and she has high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
8 – Rookie League – She drops in class today, she has high % winning trainer who wins 29% of the races in the 1st race at a route he runs a horse in and she has high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
12 – Malibu’s Dynamite
6 – Tongue Twister
Best Bet of the Day at PARX Racing –7th Race
6 – Spirit Wind
Rich’s Picks:
Race 1: 6 Furlongs – Bias: 10 Races, Tactical Speed, 4 w2w – PP: Rail Discount, 2/3 Bad, 4-7 Not Good Either, but better than 2/3, 8+ Best
1 – TWO TONS OF FUN – lone MSW dropper and chance to be better in 2nd up
5 – SHAKIN THE BELLE – should be forward and chance to go w2w
8 – CONNIVING – most consistent performer in the race
4 – BEACH BLANKET – most room to surprise in 2nd career start
Race 2: 5 ½ Furlongs Turf – Bias: 10 Races, Stalkers, 2 w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2-7 Not Good, 8+ Best
10 – OUT ON BAIL – July 19 work of 4f in 46.3 is about what he runs in races
7 – PAY THE JUICE – best combo of works, trainer and breeding for 1sters
8 – NONNO JOE – back bullet on June 26th of 4f in 47.2 says the talent is there
1 – PANDEMIC HERO – can’t pass on a Wesley Ward trainee debuting in short turf sprint
Race 3: 1 Mile – Bias: 8 Races, Closers, 0 w2w – PP: 1-3 Under Par, 4-7 Best, 8+ None
7 – MALU – Linda Rice claimed this horse for herself – better ATB in last
9 – CHASING DAYLIGHT – GREEN GO horse – probably a big favorite and out front
2 – DUCKPHAT – only horse with a PAR level race on her recent resume
4 – SCARLET’S DREAM – improved from start to finish in his last
Race 4: 1 Mile – Bias: 8 Races, Closers, 0 w2w – PP: 1-3 Under Par, 4-7 Best, 8+ None
2 – TWO JAY’S WAY – most potential in the race, 2nd race improvement borderline par for this level – bad start in last, strong LS relative to these – better start and he can win at a price
4 – JAKE’S ORCHARD – sort of a MSW dropper – Flakes, but did debut at MSW 88 at Toga last year
9 – JANSSEN – usually well bet, Z patter in last, same of better in 2nd up – a couple of 2nd and a 4th in three at this level
7 – FOUR EYES – hit the board in 4/8 on a fast track – with top fast dirt speed figure
Race 5: 1 1/16 Miles Inner Turf: 9 Races, Closers, 1 w2w – PP: Rail None, 2/3 almost Fair, 4-7 Best, 8+ Small Bonus
5 – BRAMITO – sloppy track record – both PAR for this level – turf breeding as good as any in first grass go
1A – DEVILSGOTACAUSE – either entry can win, prefer the 1A
1 – INTERNAL CAPITAL
8 – SANDERSON – 3SP# increases, just needs a little improvement from last, strong works since
4 – IMAGE OF QUALITY – finally healthy horse, making 2nd start for only the 2nd time as a 4 yo – excuses at the start of his last – plenty of LP and should be mid pack or better
Race 6: 1 1/16 Miles Turf – Bias: 3 Races, all Closers, 1 from Rail the other 2 from 8+
Almost All Can Win
5 – SPINNING COLORS – top TOTAL PACE +8 for the turf horses
6 – CAN’T FOOL ME – drops in class, 3rd up after 3SP# increases
3 – SPOOKY LADY – could be out front on an easy lead
9 – SNOWY EVENING – most consistent horse in the race
Race 7: 6 Furlongs – Bias: 10 Races, Tactical Speed, 4 w2w – PP: Rail Discount, 2/3 Bad, 4-7 Not Good Either, but better than 2/3, 8+ Best
8 – MUNNYS GOLD – Irad stays here instead of the 1 – taking Pletcher over Brown for a horse that won three in a row – tells you something
5 – STERLING SILVER – of the better closers in a race with a lot of speed – should get a good chance at a great trip
6 – SPIRIT WIND – definitely going to send – faced some of the best competition
1 – ACCEDE – want to rank higher – but the horse hasn’t responded to Flavien yet
Race 8: 1 1/16 Miles Inner Turf: 9 Races, Closers, 1 w2w – PP: Rail None, 2/3 almost Fair, 4-7 Best, 8+ Small Bonus
Another anybody can win race
2 – BOURBON DAY – knows how to win – distance 6/3-0-2 and fires after some rest
5 – AMERICAN DIAMOND – drops in class and likely to be better in the 2nd up race
4 – STREET READY – down from a Grade II, a pair of 2nd in two at Toga – a repeat of either wins
1 – TIBERIUS MERCURIUS – LP
Race 9: 1 1/16 Miles Turf – Bias: 3 Races, all Closers, 1 from Rail the other 2 from 8+
6 – TONGUE TWISTER – another finally healthy horse, making 2nd start for the first time – 3w though both turns last out – better trip today
4 – LUCKY AND GORGEOUS – small Z pattern in last and all but 1 of her 6 races good enough to win here
7 – LU’S REDEMPTION – pure MSW dropper – it and the 8 are the only ones – concerns about the 8 – Chad Brown giving up on a horse in the 2nd start that they paid $150k for?
10 – SAVING MEMORIES – 4 SP# increases and chance to build on career best race in 2nd up
