Parx Full Card Tips, Analysis and Suggested Wagers
$100 Challenge – Suggested Wagers for Parx on a $100 Budget
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: Fort Erie
Parx Racing Picks and Commentary
Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapping
Race 1
2 – Shackle Cat – He has an early foot so the shorter distance should be a plus, switches to a high % winning jockey and has a high % winning trainer.
1 – Positively Awesome – He finished 3rd vs tougher in his last race, the rail post is winning at 18% clip, he has the highest last race speed rating and the highest speed figure at today’s distance.
5 – R Goodtime Charlie – He likes the track finishing in the money in 46% of the starts winning 13% of the races and the distance is not a problem as he has finished in the money in 50% of the starts winning 50% of the races.
Longshot:
3 – Trigger Pull – He drops in class today and is a closer so the speed in the race may help.
Alternate:
4 – Fearless Fly
7 – Pointer
Bet: $1.00 DD: 1,2,5/1,5,6
Race 2
6 – Excursion – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race, has a high % winning trainer, switches to a high % winning jockey and has bullet 4F workout on May-31).
5 – Grit’n’grind – He has the highest speed figure at today’s distance, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters, and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
1 – Social Group – He ran 2nd vs tougher in his last race, the rail post is winning at 19% clip and drops in class today.
Longshot:
8 – Amount – He won his last race at Delaware Park and drops in class today.
Alternate:
7 – Mucho Macho Eddie
2 – Outrageous Bet
Bet: $.50 Pick 4 –2nd race #1,5,6 – 3rd race #3,4,6 – 4th race #2,5 – 5th race # 5,8
Race 3
3 – Sharp Sensation – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race and has the highest last race speed rating.
4 – Book Marker – He is a first-time starter but has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
6 – Just Divine – He may improve in the second start since layoff and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Longshot:
5 – Bubby Papermaker – He drops in class today and can improve while returning to a sprint.
Alternate:
2 – Vindicato
1 – Jsk Pharaoh’sreign
Bet: None
Race 4
2 – Peyton’s College – She has the highest speed figure at today’s distance, has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
5 – America’s Pride – She ran 2nd vs similar in her last race as the favorite but has a high % winning trainer who wins 28% of the races with a beaten favorite who returns to race again and has the highest last race speed rating.
9 – Nana’s Boopa – She won her last race at PARX Racing and drops in class today.
Longshot:
3 – Rolin N Controlin – She likes the track finishing in the money in 55% of the starts winning 22% of the races and has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
1 – Johnnyslittlegirl
8 – Shania Sea
Bet: – $.50 Pick 4 – 4th race # 2,5 – 5th race # 5,8 – 6th race #2,5,7 – 7th #5,6,7,8
Race 5
5 – Mister J T – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race, has a high % winning trainer and high % winning jockey.
8 – Mr. Tuttle – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race and has a high % winning jockey.
1 – Mischievous Juan – He drops in class today; the rail post is winning at a 18% clip and has a trainer who wins 50% of the races in the first race when taking a horse from a sprint-route-sprint.
Longshot:
3 – Catching Cupid – He drops in class today, has a high % winning trainer who wins 27% of the races in the second race after claiming a horse, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and blinkers added today.
Bet: $.50 Trifecta: 1,5,8/1,5,8/1,3,5,8
Race 6
7 – She’s Awesome – She ran 2nd vs similar in her last start and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
5 – Worst Behaviour – She drops in class today, switches to a high % winning jockey and Lasix & blinkers are added.
2 – Olympic Artist – She ran 2nd vs similar in her last start, she has a high % winning trainer and switches a high % winning to jockey.
Longshot:
3 – Two Sides of Love – She has a high % winning trainer and should improve while returning to dirt.
Alternate:
1 – Practical Rachel
Bet: None
Race 7
8 – White Lilacs – She won her last race easily at PARX Racing, has a high % winning trainer who wins 50% of the races in turf starts and has a high % winning jockey.
7 – Amaterasu – She finished in the money in her last four starts, winning two of the races and has the highest last race speed rating.
5 – Erin’s Enthusiasm – She comes in from Pimlico to try PARX Racing and has a high % winning trainer who wins 28% of the races when taking a horse from a route to a sprint.
Longshot:
6 – Awesomenewyear – She drops in class today; her best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters, and she has a high % winning trainer who wins 22% of the races when taking a horse from a route to a sprint.
Alternate:
10 – Peyton Elizabeth
Bet: $.50 Pick 4 – 7th race #5,6,7,8 – 8th race # 3,5- 9th race # 2,4,5,9 – 10th #7,8
Race 8
5 – Peak of Chic – She has won her last five starts, has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
3 – Cabra Chica – She ran 2nd vs similar in her last race and she has a high % winning trainer.
1 – Boss Cara – She has won two out of the last four races and has a high % winning trainer.
Longshot:
2 – Afleet Diva – She has won her last two races in a row and is going for a hat trick and has a trainer who wins 46% of the races with a horse that won their last race.
Alternate:
6 – Baci
4 – Miss Loyalty
Bet: $10.00 Win: #5
Race 9
2 – Hidden Cache – She has finished in the money in all of her eight career races, winning two of the races and she has a high % winning jockey.
4 – Our Uptown Girl – She won her last race at PARX Racing, has a high % winning trainer and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).
9 – Schnuer Will – She is always in the mix finishing in the money in her last eight starts, winning three of the races and returning to a sprint should help.
Longshot:
5 – Rolls Royce Joyce – She was bumped at the start and finished 5th in her last race and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
1 – Cause I Said
3 – Shetalkstomuch
Bet: None
Race 10
7 – Golden Haven – She drops in class today, switches to a high % winning jockey and has a trainer who wins 21% of the races when taking a horse from a maiden to a maiden claiming race.
8 – Queen of the Dance – She drops in class today; her breeding suggests she will like the grass, her Dam has 3 winners from 4 starters (but 0 Turf winners) and a trainer who wins 23% of the races when taking a horse from a maiden to a maiden claiming race.
4 – Fancy Scepter – She has a high % winning jockey, can improve at the shorter distance and her best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Longshot:
9 – Cape Neddick – She finished 3rd in her last race at PARX Racing.
Alternate:
12 – Civil Notion
Rich’s Ranks
Race 1: 5 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed – 31% w2w – PP: Inside 3 Bias, 4-7 Penalty, 8+ Fair
1 – POSITIVELY AWESOME – better ATB in his last with TLRSP, catches 18% rail – drops
2 – SHACKLE CAT – PACO rides, winning at 38%, plenty of EP, won 2 of last 3 first up efforts – down from 5k nw 2 – +5 EP
5 – R GOODTIME CHARLIE – could benefit from cutting back from 7f with EP
7 – POINTER – Sofia rides = weight break and ran better fractions at 6f vs 5 1/2f
Suggested Wagers: $0.50 Trifecta: 1,2/1,2,5/1,2,5,7
Race 2: 1 Mile 70 Yards – Bias: Early Speed – 29% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2-7 Fair, 8+ Penalty
1 – SOCIAL GROUP – TLRSP# and drops in class, much better late in last
6 – EXCURSION – consistent performer – Z pattern in last and has a bullet work since
5 – GRIT’N’GRIND – first off the claim – 15% winner for tr Guadalupe Guerrero, top C-zone by wide margin
3 – KITH – strong chance to be pacesetter, Mondays tend to favor speed, 2sp# increases in a row
Suggested Wagers: $0.50 Pick 4: 1,6/1,3,5/2,5,8/1,3,5
Race 3: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed – 37% w2w – PP: Fairish 1-7, 8+ Bonus
4 – BOOK MARKER – we’ll give the first timer a shot because none of the experienced types have shown much so far
1 – JSK PHARAOH’SREIGN – lightly raced with faster fractions at 6 ½ v 6f, better 2/4 pace#s too – cut back helps
3 – SHARP SENSATION – TLRSP#, most upside from previous performances, but 12 chances to win – lone P
2 – VINDICATO – tough call over the 6, but top C-zone and should be forwardly placed
Race 4: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed – 37% w2w – PP: Fairish 1-7, 8+ Bonus
2 – PEYTON’S COLLEGE – drops in class – top EP/LP race, similar fractions at 6 1/2f vs 6f
5 – AMERICA’S PRIDE – TLRSP#, last race was the same as the winning effort the race before
8 – SHANIA SEA – going to take a flyer with the strong EP and C-zone
9 – NANA’S BOOPA – Charles drops in class after winning last out with Z Pattern
Suggested Wagers: $0.50 Pick 4: 2,5,8/1,4,5/2,5/6,8,10
Race 5: 5 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed – 31% w2w – PP: Inside 3 Bias, 4-7 Penalty, 8+ Fair
5 – MISTER J T – plenty of EP and held speed longer last out, a little better late in last
1 – MISCHIEVOUS JUAN – third after a layoff, big drop in class – has some back speed
3 – CATCHING CUPID – lone EP horse in a balanced field, decent drop in class
8 – MR. TUTTLE –
Race 6: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed – 37% w2w – PP: Fairish 1-7, 8+ Bonus
2 – OLYMPIC ARTIST – TLRSP# in first race at Parx – should be better in 3rd up
5 – WORST BEHAVIOUR – plenty of EP and gets 1st Lasix – usually a good combo
7 – SHE’S AWESOME – very consistent performer, distance 6/0-4-0 – fades late
3 – TWO SIDES OF LOVE – comes in from PIM – lots of EP here too, really fast fractions last out
Race 7: 7 1/2 Furlongs Turf – Bias: 8 Races 50/50 – 3 w2w – PP: None from Inside 3, 4-7 Bonus, 8+ Fair
8 – WHITE LILACS – w2w in last – won all three races with Paco Lopez piloting – all on Parx grass
10 – PEYTON ELIZABETH – drops in class back to where she was claimed and won , runs well off the sidelines, turf is the question
6 – AWESOMENEWYEAR – been strong on PARX grass, 6/1-3-1, big drop in class here, likely better in 2nd up
5 – ERIN’S ENTHUSIASM – track dropper, class dropper – Pennington and Ness
Suggested Wagers: $0.50 Pick 4: 6,8,10/2,3,5/1,2,4/4,7,8
Race 8: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed – 37% w2w – PP: Fairish 1-7, 8+ Bonus
5 – PEAK OF CHIC – overlay, likely pacesetter, tie top C-Zone, TLRPS#
2 – AFLEET DIVA – my favorite type, all or nothing – Parx 5/3-0-0, Distance 7/4-0-0
3 – CABRA CHICA – strong overlay, PARX 8/2-2-2,
6 – BACI – tough call over the 1, but 1 has been regressing and this one could improve in round two off the sideline
Race 9: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed – 34% w2w – PP: Inside 3 Bias, 4-7 Discount, 8+ Close to Fair
4 – OUR UPTOWN GIRL – TLRSP# – been close in most PARX efforts 13/3-6-0
2 – HIDDEN CACHE – been off since January – 1st up record is no wins in three, but record 8/2-3-3
1 – CAUSE I SAID – not sure what happened in her last effort, but record says she is likely to bounce back after a poor performance
6 – THAT’STONY’SSISTER – won her last, went to the bench in April, some really nice works getting prepped and won debut – this is the first time she comes back after a layoff
Race 10: 7 1/2 Furlongs Turf – Bias: 8 Races 50/50 – 3 w2w – PP: None from Inside 3, 4-7 Bonus, 8+ Fair
4 – FANCY SCEPTER – likely pacesetter, strong C-zone, overlay – drops in class
8 – QUEEN OF THE DANCE – +9 EP/LP edge – comes in from PID and MSW dropper, 26% for tr Michael Stidham
7 – GOLDEN HAVEN – third off the break, drops in class and track dropper
6 – DONS LAST CALL – tough call over the rest, but we’ll roll with the top C-zone
