Parx Horse Racing Picks, Comments, Analysis and Suggested Wagers
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Terry Hollywood Hay’s Picks
Race 1-Female
2 – Sense a Million – She finished 3rd vs similar in her last race, she has the highest last race speed rating, she has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).
6 – Mazal Eighteen – She drops in class today; she switches to a high % jockey and she has a high % winning trainer.
1 – She’s Got Game – She has finished in the money in four out eight starts at PARX Racing, winning two of the races, the rail post is winning at a 22% clip and she has a high % winning trainer.
Longshot:
5 – Starship Rogue – She ran 2nd vs similar in her last race and she has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
4 – Anna Rocks
Race 2
1 – Milano – He finished 3rd vs tougher in his last race as the favorite but has a high % winning trainer who wins 30% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again, he has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
5 – Jay’s Delight – He drops in class today, should improve while returning to dirt and switches to high % jockey Paco Lopez.
2 – Shouldhavebeengone – He drops in class today and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
3 – Wilkinson Warrior – He has a high % winning jockey and the distance will not be a problem.
Alternate:
4 – Thtwasthenthisisnw
$.50 Pick 4: #1,2,3,4,5, /3/2/1,2,3,4,6,5,7 – Cost $17.50
Race 3
5 – Wizard Serrat – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race, he has the highest last race speed rating and has a high % winning trainer who wins 21% of the claiming races he has a horse running in and has a high % winning jockey.
3 – Doctor Doom – He can improve while returning to a route, switches to a high % winning trainer and has a high % winning jockey.
6 – Hurricane Highway – He has finished in the money in nine out sixteen starts at PARX Racing, winning two of the races and drops in class today.
Longshot:
1 – Seven Is a Breeze – He has a high % winning trainer who wins 18% of the claiming races he has a horse running in and the distance will not be a problem.
Alternate:
2- Et’s Magic Man
4 – Long Gray Line
Race 4
2 – Stavros – He won his last race at Delaware Park; he has a high % winning trainer and jockey and this combo in the last 14 days has this record (11 5-2-0).
3 – Whiskey Prize – He drops in class today and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
4 – Major Cam – He finished 3rd vs similar in last race, he can improve at the shorter distance, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie) and he has a high % winning trainer.
Longshot:
1 – Imagine This – He drops in class today, his highest speed figure at today’s distance and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
5 – Tequilamademedoit
6 – Food Foodie
$.50 Pick 4: #2,3,4 /2,4,5,7/1,4/1,6 – Cost $24.00
Race 5
2 – Smarten Up – He has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and has a high % winning trainer who wins 21% of the claiming races he has a horse running in and has a high % winning jockey.
7 – Itwasthedevilsidea – He likes PARX Racing, finishing in the money in 64% of the races and winning 14% of the races and the distance will not be a problem as he has won 70% of the races, winning 10% of the races.
4 – Social Group – He has a high % winning jockey and can handle the distance.
Longshot:
5 – Jebologist – He drops in class today and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Alternate:
6 – Teewinot Pass
1 – Indoctrinate
Race 6-Female
1 – Just Stay Home – She won her last race at PARX Racing; she has the highest last race speed rating and has a high % winning trainer who wins 38% of the routes he has a horse running in and has a high % winning jockey.
4 – Princess Sophie – Her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
3 – Beyond a Million – She finished 3rd vs similar in her last race and she has a high % winning trainer.
Longshot:
6 – Classy Miss – She likes PARX Racing, finishing in the money in 44% of the races and winning 19% of the races and she can go the distance.
Alternate:
2 – Canoodle
5 – Creme Caramel
$.50 Pick 4: #1,3,4,6/1,2,6 /6,7/1,3,6 – Cost $36.00
Race 7
6 – Chip’s Friend – He won his last race at PARX Racing and he has a high % winning trainer who wins 66% of the races when dropping a horse off win and has a high % winning jockey.
1 – Wynn Giant – He has a win out of three starts at PARX Racing and the distance will not be a problem.
2 – Dad’s On a Roll – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
3 – Runnin Joke – He has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and he has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
5 – Forever Wicked
Race 8-Female
7 – Goldieness – She drops in class today, she has a high % winning trainer who wins 28% of the races in the 2nd start with this trainer, can improve while returning to a route, she has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
6 – Dixie Groove – She has won two out of the last three races, finishing 3rd vs similar in her last race and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
1 – Luli’s Dancer – She ran 2nd in her last race and she has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
4 – A Bit Bad N Boujee – She ran 3rd vs similar in her last race and he has a high % and jockey.
Alternate:
2 – Liplock
3 – Sirenetta
$.50 Pick 4: # 1,4,6,7/1,3,6/1,5,7,9/1,4 – Cost $48.00
Race 9-Female
1 – Collin’s Grey Lady – She drops in class today, the rail post is winning at a 22% clip, she has a trainer who wins 23% of the races he has a horse running in the 2nd race after claiming a horse and she has a high % winning jockey.
3 – Wishing Ona Prayer – She drops in class today; she has won 31% of the races at PARX Racing and the distance will not be a problem as she has won 40% of the races.
6 – Phancy Philly – She can improve while returning to a sprint and she has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
5 – Awesome Pal – She finished 3rd vs similar in her last race and has the highest last race speed rating.
Alternate:
3 – Wishing Ona Prayer
2 – Melodia
Race 10
5 – Motskari – He has won two out of the last three races, running 2nd vs tougher in his last race, he has a high % winning trainer who wins 40% of the races in the 1st start with this trainer and he has a high % winning jockey.
7 – I Feelucky Tonite – He is knocking at the door finishing 3rd in his last three starts and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
1 – Dance a Dini – He has the highest last race speed rating (tie), the rail post is winning at a 24% clip and he has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
9 – Rush Center – He finished 2nd vs similar in his last race as the favorite but has a high % winning trainer who wins 26% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again and he has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
Race 11-Female
1 – Dreamwithinadream – She finished 2nd in her last race, the rail post is winning at a 22% clip, her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie) and she has a high % winning traine and jockey.
4 – Myheartwillgoon – She finished 4th in her last race as the favorite but has a high % winning trainer who wins 19% of the races when bringing a beaten favorite back to race again and blinkers are added today.
6 – Crack the Code – She has finished in the money in two of her last three starts, her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).
Longshot:
8 – Whoosh – She finished 3rd vs similar in her last race at PARX Racing and she can improve while returning to a sprint.
Bet: $7.00 Win: # 1
Alternate:
2 – Star of Caesarea
3 – Carry Grant
Best Bet of the Day at PARX Racing – 11th Race
1 – Dreamwithinadream
Rich’s Picks
Race 1: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Stalkers, 28% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2/3 Under Par, 4-7 Fair, 8+ Under Par
2 – SENSE A MILLION – much better late in last, work since and a weight break
6 – MAZAL EIGHTEEN – doesn’t look like it on paper – should be forward on a decent drop
1 – SHE’S GOT GAME – big improvement in her last, maybe more to come in 3rd up
7 – MADAME ROUGE – down in class after being better early and late – Z Pattern
Race 2: 1 Mile 70 Yards – Bias: Early Speed, 42% w2w – PP: Rail Discount, 2/3 Bonus, 4-7 Almost Fair, 8+ Bonus
1 – MILANO – drops in class after +8 TLRSP#
4 – THTWASTHENTHISISNW – has the parability – signs of life, much better middle out
2 – SHOULDHAVEBEENGONE – down in class with better 2/4f pace#s
3 – WILKINSON WARRIOR – same story as the 2, been off since April, would like more than 1 work
Race 3: 1 Mile 70 Yards – Bias: Early Speed, 42% w2w – PP: Rail Discount, 2/3 Bonus, 4-7 Almost Fair, 8+ Bonus
5 – WIZARD SERRAT – upped SP# in last four with TLRSP#+5
1 – SEVEN IS A BREEZE – top TOTAL PACE +8 – should be much closer to the front versus these
6 – HURRICANE HIGHWAY – may not look like it, but better fractions last out
2 – ET’S MAGIC MAN – big chance to be pacesetter, 10 pound weight break,
Race 4: 1 Mile 70 Yards – Bias: Early Speed, 42% w2w – PP: Rail Discount, 2/3 Bonus, 4-7 Almost Fair, 8+ Bonus
2 – STAVROS – just needs to rerun his last race, resume says 3rd up could be better, a lot better
3 – WHISKEY PRIZE – very consistent, drops back to a class where he finished 2nd
4 – MAJOR CAM – some early pace and getting a weight break today
6 – FOOD FOODIE – could surprise in his second start at Parx after track dropping from Laurel
Race 5: 1 Mile 70 Yards – Bias: Early Speed, 42% w2w – PP: Rail Discount, 2/3 Bonus, 4-7 Almost Fair, 8+ Bonus
5 – JEBOLOGIST – top ES and LP with +10 TOTAL PACE – can’t pass what you cannot catch
6 – TEEWINOT PASS – expecting a better race in 2nd up, TLRSP#+7
1 – INDOCTRINATE – better pace turn to finish line, could be better in 2nd up
2 – SMARTEN UP – drops in class and has more than enough back class, 3rd up could be better
4 – SOCIAL GROUP –
7 – ITWASTHEDEVILSIDEA
3 – RELISHMENT
Race 6: 1 Mile 70 Yards – Bias: Early Speed, 42% w2w – PP: Rail Discount, 2/3 Bonus, 4-7 Almost Fair, 8+ Bonus
1 – JUST STAY HOME – 3SP# increases, TLRSP+6, resume says better in 2nd up
2 – CANOODLE – top TOTAL PACE +11 – should be close to the front and the most LP by a length
4 – PRINCESS SOPHIE – much better pace and fractions in first off the claim for tr Kathleen Demasi
3 – BEYOND A MILLION – weight break and has strong LP by a wide margin for these at times
Race 7: 1 Mile 70 Yards – Bias: Early Speed, 42% w2w – PP: Rail Discount, 2/3 Bonus, 4-7 Almost Fair, 8+ Bonus
1 – WYNN GIANT – better fractions last out, highly consistent with occasional upside pop
6 – CHIP’S FRIEND – drops off a wire to wire win – a little faster at 1 mile than 7f in prior start
2 – DAD’S ON A ROLL – just missed last out at this level – will make a lot of noise late
7 – SAILOR’S RETURN – usually pairs strong efforts, last was the first, it’s today or nada
Race 8: 1 Mile 70 Yards – Bias: Early Speed, 42% w2w – PP: Rail Discount, 2/3 Bonus, 4-7 Almost Fair, 8+ Bonus
7 – GOLDIENESS – way too much early speed not to consider on top
6 – DIXIE GROOVE – very consistent with numbers that win at the this level – ran a lot faster in last
1 – LULI’S DANCER – much better pace and fractions in last – TLRSP#+3
2 – LIPLOCK – lots of late speed in last two and – and should be right off the pace here
Race 9: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Stalkers, 28% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2/3 Under Par, 4-7 Fair, 8+ Under Par
5 – AWESOME PAL – TLRSP# +12, weight break, CV suggests 3rd up will look a lot like the 2nd up
1 – COLLIN’S GREY LADY – drops in class – speed and fade at a route, cut back in distance and rail+
6 – PHANCY PHILLY – maybe a tough troubled trip in her last – talking off some distance could help
3 – WISHING ONA PRAYER – down in class in first up – all or nothing type 14/4-0-1, 10 lbs off
Race 10: 1 Mile – Bias: Early Speed, 49% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2/3 Fair, 4-7 Discount, 8+ Best
1 – DANCE A DINI – similar fractions at 1m70 as 1m – maintenance work between
9 – RUSH CENTER – should be a good stalking position and has the most LS for the those mid-forward – lone E – lookout if he gets the early lead
7 – I FEELUCKY TONITE – left arrow horse with fairly aggressive ES edge
5 – MOTSKARI – lone PC horse – drops in class and drops in from Tampa
Race 11: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Stalkers, 28% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2/3 Under Par, 4-7 Fair, 8+ Under Par
1 – DREAMWITHINADREAM – TLRSP+6, better EP and fractions in last
2 – STAR OF CAESAREA – track dropper with some strong PARX works, hidden horse for the course
4 – MYHEARTWILLGOON – speed of the speed and if it’s a speed bias, could be out by more than a length – 7 pound weight break in 3rd up
8 – WHOOSH – might not look like it in the PP, but ran a much better race in his last and 7 pounds off
