PARX Full Card Tips, Analysis and Suggested Wagers
$100 Challenge – Suggested Wagers for PARX on a $100 Budget
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: Mountaineer Park
Parx Picks and Plays
Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapping
Race 1
4 – Seiver – She finished 3rd vs similar in her last race, her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
2 – Fancy Scepter – She finished 2nd in her last race and has a high % winning jockey.
7 – Island Belle – She drops in class today and has a trainer who wins 17% of the races in routes.
Longshot:
6 – Milwaukee Bay – She ran 2nd in her last two races and switches to a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
1 – Heart Light
Bet: $1.00 DD: #2,4,7 / #6,8
Race 2
6 – Must Be Love – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters, he has the highest last race speed rating and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
8 – Et’s Toy Soldier – He won his last race at PARX Racing and has a jockey who in the last 7 days has finished in the money in five out of his ten races, winning three.
2 – In Spades – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
5 – Destin’s Mission – He won his last race at PARX Racing easily and only needs to repeat that performance.
Alternate:
1 – Late to the Show
4 – Coffee With Alex
Bet: $.50 Trifecta: 6,8/2,6,8/1,2,5,6,8
Race 3
1 – Tempted to Touch – I am throwing out her last race as she came wide into the stretch, the rail post is winning at 21% clip, switches to a high % jockey and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
2 – Jump a Fox – She drops in class today and has a decent 4f ft workout on April 21st.
4 – Tempest Rising – She has the highest last race speed rating, and her best dirt speed is close to the avg winning speed.
Longshot:
3 – Elevenmonthslater – She switches to a high % winning jockey and has a good 3f ft workout on April 05th.
Alternate:
5 – End of the Rainbow
6 – Charlize Chub
Bet: None
Race 4
1- Fuego Sos – He is a first-time starter whose Dam has 6 winners from 8 starters and has a trainer who wins 33% of the races with 1st time starters.
6 – Heavy Timber – He is a first-time starter, has a high % winning trainer and jockey and has a good 4F workout on Apr-22.
2 – Incitatusway – He is a first-time starter whose Dam has 2 winners from 2 starters and has a good 3F workout on Apr-22.
Longshot:
7 – Factor U and Me In – He is a first-time starter whose Dam has 2 winners from 4 starters.
Alternate:
4 – Rebel Invasion
Bet: – $.50 Pick 4 – 4th race # 1,2,4,5,6,7 – 5th race # 4,5 – 6th race #2,3- 7th #1,6
Race 5
4 – Rolin N Controlin– She has won three out of her last four races, has a high % winning trainer and jockey and the distance will not be a problem.
5 – Scarf – She finished 3rd vs similar in her last race and has a trainer who wins 27% of the races with a horse’s 1st start with this trainer.
6 – Without a View – She likes PARX Racing and switches to a high % jockey.
Longshot:
3 – Another Saucy Six – She has finished in the money in five out of her last six races, winning one and finishing 2nd vs similar in her last race.
Alternate:
1 – Bella Maria
Bet: None
Race 6
3 – Moving in Stereo – She finished 3rd vs tougher in her last race, has the highest last race speed rating (tie), has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
2 – Purrfect Mistress – She has an early foot and will try to lead to the finish line and drops in class today.
5 – Miss Alex – She switches to a high % jockey.
Longshot:
6 – Risen Change – She finished 3rd vs similar in her last race and finished 2nd or 3rd in a lot of races so she would be good to use in the exotics.
Alternate:
1 – Pearlbdancing
Bet: None
Race 7
6 – Dudley Dickerson – He comes in from Aqueduct after finishing 2nd only losing by a neck with a trainer who wins 18% of the races when shipping a horse in to run.
1 – Marvelousmoondance – He has finished in the money in eight out of his last ten races, finishing 3rd vs similar in his last race, the rail post is winning at 21% clip and should improve while returning to a route.
4 – Supreme Being – He switches to a high % jockey, should improve while returning to dirt and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Longshot:
7 – Beyond Best – He has the highest last race speed rating (tie) and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Bet: $.50 Pick 5 – 7th race #6- 8th race # 8 – 9th race # 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8 – 10th race #4- 11th #1,2,3,4,6,9,10-
Bet: $8.00 Win # 6
Race 8
8 – Bullet Butch – He drops in class today, can improve while returning to a sprint, has a high % winning trainer and jockey and has a good 4F workout on April -25th.
3 – Beachwalker – He has been knocking at the door finishing 3rd vs similar in his last race and has a trainer who wins 25% of the races when taking a horse from a route to a sprint.
5 – Ruffy – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race, has the highest last race speed rating and has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
2 – Louie’s Law – He closed to win his last race at PARX Racing and switches to a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
6 – Meet the Elite
1 – Ouch Ouch Ouch
Bet: – $.50 Pick 4 – 8th race # 8 – 9th race # 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8 – 10th race #4- 11th #1,2,3,4,6,9,10
Race 9
2 – Speightful Miss – She is a first-time starter who has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
8 – Mii Amo – She is a first-time starter whose Dam has 8 winners from 10 starters and has a high % winning jockey who in the last 7 days has this record (14 4-2-2).
6 – Kristinachrysalis – She is a first-time starter, and she has a bullet 4f ft workout on Apr.22nd.
Longshot:
4 – One Eyed Jackie – She is a first-time starter whose Dam has 2 winners from 3 starters and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Alternate:
1 – Troubled Dreams
7 – She Speaks
Bet: None
Race 10
4 – Big Cheeks – She has won two races in a row and is going for a hat trick and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
6 – Baby Gundin – She closed to win her 2nd race in a row in her last race receiving the highest last race speed rating.
2 – Nurturing – She drops in class today; her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and her early speed running style helps chances.
Longshot:
1 – Far Heart – She is another entry who has won two races in a row and is going for a hat trick and the rail post is winning at 20% clip.
Alternate:
7 – Anna Rocks
3 – Madame Rouge
Bet: None
Race 11
3 – Dizzy Gillespie – He finished 2nd vs similar in his last race and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
2 – Tactical Plan – He drops in class today and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters (tie).
10 – Positively Awesome – He drops in class today and has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
4 – R Goodtime Charlie – He showed some early speed in his first race back after a 9-month break and may improve in his 2nd start since the layoff as he has the highest speed figure at today’s distance.
Alternate:
6 – Pointer
Bet: None
Rich Rank’s
Race 1: 1 Mile 70 Yards – Bias: Tactical Speed – 29% w2w – PP: Strong Rail, 2-7 Fair, 8+ Penalty
Pace: Should favor forwardly places horses
4 – SEIVER – had the TLRSP# by a wide margin, the others will have to come up of this one fall, history says she should be as good in the second off the bench as the first
2 – FANCY SCEPTER – hasn’t won yet, but could be pacesetter with strong C-Zone
6 – MILWAUKEE BAY – ran better times last out, a pair of maintenance works since and Sofia Vives rides and she’s been hot
7 – ISLAND BELLE – chance for the early lead with strong C-zone
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Trifecta: 2,4/2,4,6/2,3,4,6,7
Race 2: 5 ½ Furlongs – Bias: 50/50 – 34% w2w – PP: Strong Inside 3, Under Par 4-7, 8+ Fair
Pace: Plenty that want to be upfront, speed of the speed and late legs
6 – MUST BE LOVE – TLRSP# by a decent margin, held speed longer and likely ups it in second after a layoff
8 – ET’S TOY SOLDIER – was better ATB with much faster fractions and potentially better in R3 off the bench
1 – LATE TO THE SHOW – gets the high win rate rail, faster fractions in last and resume is 50/50 improves in round two off the bench
5 – DESTIN’S MISSION – is coming off a wire to wire win to get the maiden in the 4th try, maybe better in round two off the bench
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Pick 4: 6/4/1,2,5,6,7/1,3,4,5
Race 3: 1 Mile 70 Yards – Bias: Tactical Speed – 29% w2w – PP: Strong Rail, 2-7 Fair, 8+ Penalty
Pace: Mostly off the pace horses, being upfront should be an advantage
4 – TEMPEST RISING – Biggest class dropper coming off the TLRPS#, Z pattern,
3 – ELEVENMONTHSLATER – better ATB in last drops in class too, but has not won at this level either
1 – TEMPTED TO TOUCH – finished well beaten 2nd the last two times she ran at this level
2 – JUMP A FOX – mystery horse, only two races, neither were good, but most lightly raced
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Trifecta: 3,4/1,3,4/1,2,3,4,5
Race 4: 2 Furlongs – Bias: No Races
2 – INCITATUSWAY – been working at Belmont most likely versus better horses, like the April 22nd work, one of two horses with a regular Parx rider
5 – AMIRATI – bullet and go at Belmont – by far top Pedigree#s – trainer Amira Chichakly’s #s concerning
6 – HEAVY TIMBER – most expensive horse in the field and Pennignton, the top PRX rider in here for sure
1 – FUEGO SOS – really like our good friend Tyler Conner, like the rail, but not a fan of Penn Shippers
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Trifecta: 2,5,6/2,5/1,2,5,6,7
Race 5: 7 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed – 36% w2w – PP: Strong Inside 3 Bias, 4+ Under Par
Pace: No real frontrunner types, early speed should be beneficial
4 – ROLIN N CONTROLIN – PARX 7/2-2-1, Distance 3/2-1-0
1 – BELLA MARIA – biggest drop in class, was much better 2/4f pace#s – rail helps
3 – ANOTHER SAUCY SIX – might not look so good on paper, but beat a lot in here when matched up
5 – SCARF –with a shot to get the lead
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Trifecta: 1,4/1,3,4/1,2,3,4,5
Race 6: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed – 36% w2w – PP: Mostly Fair, Little Discount 2/3
Pace: A couple that haven’t been close, winner should come from 1-4
3 – MOVING IN STEREO – been running up against stronger quality at CLM12.5 n3L – if she can run back to either of her prior two races = win
2 – PURRFECT MISTRESS – another 12.5 n3 dropper, really strong EP in last, if she can hold on
6 – RISEN CHANGE – more consistent performer than the rest
5 – MISS ALEX – primary beneficiary of the 4 scratching – could be pacesetter
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Trifecta: 2,3/2,3,6/1,2,3,5,6
Race 7: 1 Mile 70 Yards – Bias: Tactical Speed – 29% w2w – PP: Strong Rail, 2-7 Fair, 8+ Penalty
Pace: None that showed speed before, get out front and you might not get caught
1 – MARVELOUSMOONDANCE – Been knocking at the door, Parx 10/0-6-2, Distance 5/0-4-0, maybe the rail is the difference maker
7 – BEYOND BEST – always well bet, came back after more than a year off to run TLRSP# for this crew, did regress in only 2nd up, but tr Scott Lake 23% winner 2nd start with a new horse
6 – DUDLEY DICKERSON – looks like AQ track dropper, but Parx 2/0-0-0 at this level, was better ATB on last and a Parx maintenance work
4 – SUPREME BEING – overlay before all the scratches
Suggested Wager: $5 Win: 1
Race 8: 7 Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed – 36% w2w – PP: Strong Inside 3 Bias, 4+ Under Par
Pace: Most of the horse are versatile, but not many with a ton of EP, edge frontrunners
5 – RUFFY – aggressive EP and strong mid move in last at the is level, 3SP# increases in a row, TLRSP#
8 – BULLET BUTCH – running at his lowest level of career, 5 YO with only 7 races, looks talented, but lack of races and in for a price says the horse has issues – looking to win and sell IMO
6 – MEET THE ELITE – steps up after winning coming off the bench, strong work between and resume says he should be better in round two off the bench
2 – LOUIE’S LAW – major overlay with strong C-Zone, tr Scott Lake went to Ruben Silvera here for a reason
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Trifecta: 2,5,6,8/1,2,6/2,6/2,4,10
Race 9: 4 ½ Furlongs: Bias – No races
1 – TROUBLED DREAMS – Tr Brittany Russell wins and the Delaware work 1/61 with rail, She’s here to win
2 – SPEIGHTFUL MISS – Pennington and tr John Servis win at 41% together, OK works
6 – KRISTINACHRYSALIS – bullet and go work and worked well at Laurel too
8 – MII AMO – decent works at Parx
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Trifecta: 1,2,6/1,2/1,2,5,6,8
Race 10: 1 Mile – Bias: Early Sped – 53% w2w – Rail Bonus, Inside Out Bias 2+
Pace: Balanced – best horse should win
2 – NURTURING – down in class and could have a strong EP edge over the rest
6 – BABY GUNDIN – winner of 2 straight, much faster early fractions last out, cutting back from 1m7y could help
4 – BIG CHEEKS – Silvera/Ness – won his lone trip at PARX with ease, stepping up in class here
1 – FAR HEART – won her last by 14 and the one before that by 9, taking another step up the ladder here
Suggested Wager: $1 Double: 2/1,2,3,4,6,10
Race 11: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed – 36% w2w – PP: Mostly Fair, Little Discount 2/3
Pace: Mostly horses that want to be mid pack and back, could favor EP
10 – POSITIVELY AWESOME – should be on the lead with strong C-Zone
3 – DIZZY GILLESPIE – TLRSP#. Better 2/4f#s in last, weight break
4 – R GOODTIME CHARLIE – not sure what happened in the last race as FAV, started fast, gave up, let’s see if he bounces back today
2 – TACTICAL PLAN – more consistent than the rest – dropping in class and a return to form
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Trifecta: 2,3,10/3,10/1,2,3,4,10
