PARX Full Card Tips, Analysis and Suggested Wagers
$100 Challenge – Suggested Wagers for PARX on a $100 Budget
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: Finger Lakes
Parx Plays and Picks
Race 1
4 – Rockin Cowboy – He has won two out of the last three races including the last one at PARX Racing, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters, and he has the highest speed figure at today’s distance.
5 – Kadens Courage – He is having a good year finishing in the money in 60% of the starts, winning 20% of the races and he shares the best dirt speed among today’s starters (tie) with Rockin Cowboy.
7 – San Antone – He drops in class today and has a has a high % winning trainer.
Longshot:
6 – Stay Hydrated – He drops in class today to the level of his last win.
Alternate:
8 – One Slick Start
Bet: $1.00 DD: #4,5,6,7 / #2,8
Race 2
2 – Big Ambition – She finished in the money in four out of four starts this year races, winning the last one and has a high % winning trainer.
8 – Carnelian – She finished 3rd vs tougher in her last race at the Fairgrounds, drops in class today and switches to a jockey who in the last 7 days has finished in the money in nine out of fourteen races, winning five.
4 – Be Water – She ran 2nd vs tougher in her last race, drops in class today and switches to a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
7 – All That Magic – She has a high % winning trainer, the shorter distance may be a plus and she has a good 4F workout on Apr-22.
Alternate:
1 – Mythreebutterflies
5 – Brooklyn Heights
Bet: $.50 Trifecta: 6,8/2,4,8/1,2,4,7,8
Race 3
2 – Boss Cara – She has finished in the money in 71% of the races at PARX Racing, winning 29% of the races and has done well at today’s distance finishing in the money in 66% of the races, winning 33% of the races and has a high % winning trainer.
7 – Epicurean – She ran 2nd vs similar (on Turf) in her last race, has a high % winning trainer and can improve while returning to Dirt.
5 – Vitaemi – She won her last race at PARX Racing, has the highest last race speed rating, and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters, and she has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
4 – Pontiffany – She won her last race at PARX Racing and has the highest last race speed rating.
Alternate:
1 – Take Charge Erica
Bet: $6.00 Win # 2
Race 4
2- Dixie’s Two Stents – He has finished in the money in five out of his last six races this year, winning two and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
4 – Midlaner – He ran 2nd in his last race, has the highest last race speed rating and has trainer/jockey combo who in the last 14 days has this record (5 2-0-1).
6 – My Last Mission – He comes in from Aqueduct to try PARX Racing, has a trainer who wins 34% of the races when bringing a horse back who was 90+ days away and has the highest speed figure at today’s distance.
Longshot:
7 – Iconic Legacy – He has finished in the money in five of his last five races, winning two and has the best dirt speed among today’s starters.
Alternate:
3 – Polar Wind
1 – Maxim Moment
Bet: – $.50 Pick 4 – 4th race # 2,3,4,6,7 – 5th race # 1,2,5,9 – 6th race #1,3,4,5 – 7th #7
Race 5
2 – Meru – He has been off for 8-months but has steadily been working out toward his return to the track, drops in class, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and has a trainer who wins 75% races when putting blinkers back on.
5 – Hope for Gold – He ran 2nd vs similar in his last race, has a high % winning trainer and has a jockey who in the last 7 days has this record (10 3-1-1).
1 – Natavalli’s Knight – He can improve at the shorter distance and has a high % winning jockey..
Longshot:
9 – Chain Reaction – He finished 3rd vs similar in his last race, switches to a high% trainer and has a high % winning jockey.
Alternate:
7 – Fire’s Finale
Bet: $1.00 DD: #1,2,5,9 / #1,3
Race 6
3 – Cartwheel – She finished 3rd vs similar in her last race, has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
1 – This Round’s Mine – She has finished in the money in six of her last seven races, winning four, drops in class today and has a high % winning jockey.
4 – Seamialaugh – She won her last race at PARX Racing and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
5 – Starship Blanca – She won her last race at PARX Racing, has the highest last race speed rating and has a high % winning trainer.
Alternate:
9 – Shirley Greene
1 – This Round’s Mine
Bet: $.50 Trifecta: 1,3/1,3,4,5/1,3,4,5
Race 7
7 – Chelsea Wall – She finished 3rd in her last race, has high % winning trainer Jamie Ness and high % winning jockey Ruben Silvera and has the highest speed figure at today’s distance.
2 – Tilsa – She won her last race at PARX Racing, switches to a high % winning trainer and high % winning jockey and this combo in the last 14 days has this record (5 2-2-0).
8 – Bucks Some – She ran 2nd vs similar in last race and has a high % winning jockey.
Longshot:
1 – Midtown Rose – She drops in class today; her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters and has a high % winning trainer.
Alternate:
4 – Sense a Million
6 – Confirmed Genius
Bet: – $.50 Pick 4 – 7th race # 1,2,7,8 – 8th race # 2,5- 9th race #1,3,7- 10th #4
Race 8
5 – Irish Cork – He won his last race at Laurel, has the highest last race speed rating and a high % winning trainer and jockey.
2 – Far Mo Power – He has won six out of twelve starts at PARX Racing, drops in class, his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters, and he has a good 5F workout on Apr-25.
1 – Irish Exit – He has won three races in a row at today’s distance, the rail post is winning at 21% clip, and he has a high % winning trainer.
Longshot:
6 – Simovitch – He won his last race, has a high % winning trainer who wins 23% of the Allowance races he has an entry in and has a bullet 4F workout on Apr-22.
Alternate:
4 – American Patrol
Bet: None
Race 9
7 – Breezy Gust – She won her last race at Laurel, has the highest last race speed rating. and drops in class today.
1 – Five Dreams – She won her last race at PARX Racing and has a high % winning trainer.
3 – Hopeful Treasure – She has a has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
4 – Spun and Won – She won her only start at PARX Racing and likes the distance.
Alternate:
2 – Noble Gaston
Bet: $.50 Trifecta: 1,3,4,7/1,7/1,3,4,7
Race 10
4 – Somebody – She ran 2nd vs similar in her last race and has the highest last race speed rating.
8 – Scotty – She switches to a high % winning jockey and drops in class today.
6 – Seat of Honor – She has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Longshot:
3 – Eddie’s Charge – She drops in class today and has a trainer who wins 17% of the claiming races he has an entry in.
Alternate:
1 – Illustrious
7 – Just Nod and Smile
Bet: $6.00 Win # 4
Rich’s Ranks
Race 1: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed – 36% w2w – PP: Mostly Fair, Little Discount 2/3
5 – KADENS COURAGE – better early and late in his last with similar fractions at 6f v 5 1/2f
4 – ROCKIN COWBOY – won two of his last three, stepping up in class
1 – E T’S CANDY MAN – overlay with a decent chance to get to the lead and good c-zone
3 – INDIRECTLY – if closers are the way again today, this one will may be coming the fastest of all
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Trifecta: 1,4,5/4,5/1,3,4,5,8
Race 2: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed – 36% w2w – PP: Mostly Fair, Little Discount 2/3
8 – CARNELIAN – track dropper, class dropper and TLRSP#
4 – BE WATER – been off for more than a year, was facing much better before going to the bench, steady works with a bullet at 3f and 6f work in there too – if she is ready
2 – BIG AMBITION – better ATB in last getting the maiden win in 6th try, but PARX 3/1-1-1 and weight break
7 – ALL THAT MAGIC – tough call over the 1, but should improve in 2nd up according to resume
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Pick 4: 4,8/4,5,7/2,3,4,8/2,5,6
Race 3: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed – 37% w2w – PP: Inside 3 and 8+ Bias, 4-7 Discount
5 – VITAEMI – won her last with ease with a peak speed number, last time she set a peak, followed it up with a better race
4 – PONTIFFANY – TLRSP# and stepping up in class, peak number, regressed following previous two peaks
7 – EPICUREAN – consistent performer who has raced competitively at this level while many others are stepping up
1 – TAKE CHARGE ERICA – tough call over the 2, but this one looks like it’s improving while the 2 is tiring
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Trifecta: 4,5/4,5,7/1,2,4,5,7
Race 4: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed – 36% w2w – PP: Mostly Fair, Little Discount 2/3
2 – DIXIE’S TWO STENTS – been off since July after coming in from Keeneland and California – class if he is ready, works are OK
8 – HONORARY DEGREE – came off the bench with better ATB#s, should be better in 2nd off a layoff
4 – MIDLANER – TLRSP# at this level in his last, probably the most consistent horse in the field
3 – POLAR WIND – comes in from Turfway Park, 1st off the claim for tr Lee Haleem – 32% off the claim and nice Parx work in last
Suggested Wager: $0.50Pick 4: 2,3,4,8/2,5,6/3/2,7
Race 5: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed – 36% w2w – PP: Mostly Fair, Little Discount 2/3
5 – HOPE FOR GOLD – improved 2/4f pace numbers and faster fractions, distance 6/1-2-1
6 – TACO BEAN – won 2 of 3 at Parx since coming from NYRA, tr Elliott Soto-Martinex winner 5/12 after winning the previous race
2 – MERU – comes in from Laurel/Monmouth after facing tougher, works are OK – tr Jorge Duarte, Jr winner 3/4 putting blinkers back on and 4/4 ITM
9 – CHAIN REACTION – carried his speed longer in his last, cutting back in distance could help fitness
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Trifecta: 2,5,6/5,6/2,5,6,7,9
Race 6: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed – 36% w2w – PP: Mostly Fair, Little Discount 2/3
3 – CARTWHEEL – Ness/Silveria – PARX 10/5-3-0, has some good late legs
1 – THIS ROUND’S MINE – drops in class, last was better than it ended with improved 2/4f pace#s, 50/50 in round two off the bench
5 – STARSHIP BLANCA – TLRSP# but is moving up in class, 3SP# increases
9 – SHIRLEY GREENE – tr Lee Haleem winner 23% in first outing with a new horse, Z pattern in last
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Trifecta: 1,3/1,3,5/1,3,4,5,9
Race 7: 6 ½ Furlongs – Bias: Early Speed – 37% w2w – PP: Inside 3 and 8+ Bias, 4-7 Discount
2 – TILSA – seen it too many times not to put this one first – overlay, top EP and C-Zone
7 – CHELSEA WALL – 5SP# increases, Ness/Silveria – TLRSP# and maybe drops in class from Stater Bred ALW 50k
5 – CAUSE I SAID – did beat top pick two back, considerably better through the first half mile in first race after the claim for tr Joseph Taylor who wins at 19% second off the claim vs 11% overall – Paco
4 – SENSE A MILLION – tough call over the 6, but a little more consistent, better Parx and Distance numbers with a little more upside
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Pick 4: 2,7/2,4,5/5,6/4,7
Race 8: 1 Mile 70 Yards – Bias: Tactical Speed – 29% w2w – PP: Strong Rail, 2-7 Fair, 8+ Penalty
2 – FAR MO POWER – double bullets getting prepped for today, PARX 12/6-3-1, won last two fresh off the bench
5 – IRISH CORK – another coming off the sidelines with some swift works, but usually needs one – Distance 12/4-1-4 – just 2 wins in 14 at any other distance
4 – AMERICAN PATROL – TR Cathal Lynch winner 33% in third off the break, drops in class, won last two with ease at this level
1 – IRISH EXIT – tough call over the 8, but can’t ignore rail bias and 8+ penalty
Suggested Wager: $2 Pick 3: 2/6,7/4
Race 9: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed – 36% w2w – PP: Mostly Fair, Little Discount 2/3
7 – BREEZY GUST – TLRSP# by a decent margin, only question is 1st up record, no wins in last 3
6 – WORD ON A WING – right distance 9/5-0-2, one win in 7 at any other, should be involved from start to finish
3 – HOPEFUL TREASURE – ran some strong fractions last out versus some pretty good horses
4 – SPUN AND WON – track dropper, won his lone race at PARX at this level, distance is right again 5/2-0-2, others 8/1-2-1
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Trifecta: 6,7/3,6,7/1,3,4,6,7
Race 10: 1 Mile 70 Yards – Bias: Tactical Speed – 29% w2w – PP: Strong Rail, 2-7 Fair, 8+ Penalty
4 – SOMEBODY – TLRSP# good chance to be better in the 3rd start after a layoff
7 – JUST NOD AND SMILE – sim says could be on the lead with top C-zone, can’t ignore these types
1 – ILLUSTRIOUS – drops in class and rides the strong rail, but PARX 4/0-0-0 and getting a weight break today
6 – SEAT OF HONOR – better chance of getting a better trip and better EP/LP combo over the 8
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Trifecta: 4,7/1,4,7/1,4,6,7,8
