Parx Full Card Tips, Analysis and Suggested Wagers
$100 Challenge – Suggested Wagers for Parx on a $100 Budget
Guaranteed Tip Sheet Free Track: Fort Erie
Parx Picks and Commentary
Terry “Hollywood” Hay’s Handicapping
Race 1
6 – Harp’s Hot Corner – He is a first – time starter whose Dam has 10 winners from 10 starters and 3 stakes winners, has a high % winning trainer and jockey and has a good 4F workout on May-16.
2 – Heavy Timber – He finished 4th in his last race as the favorite, has a high % jockey, blinkers added today and has a good 3F workout on May-13.
5 – Yo Yo Candy – He is a first – time starter whose Dam has 4 winners from 6 starters and has two good workouts in a row.
Longshot:
1 – Mr. Normandy – He is a first – time starter whose Dam has 1 winner from 2 starters and her breeding suits today’s sprint distance.
Alternate:
3 – Freedom Lives
Bet: $1.00 DD: 1,2,5,6/1,2,4
Race 2
4 – Seamialaugh – She drops in class today, has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
2 – Reiterate – She drops in class today and has the highest speed figure at today’s distance.
1 – Penance – She ran 2nd vs tougher in her last race, drops in class today and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Longshot:
7 – Smooth as Glass – She drops in class today and has trainer who wins 21% of the races in claiming races.
Alternate:
6 – Call the Po Po
3 – Mrs. Crews
Bet: $.50 Pick 4 –2nd race #1,2,4-3rd race #1,3,5,6-4th race#2,4-5th race#,7,10
Race 3
3 – Holy Moly Moses – He broke slow in his maiden race finishing 4th in the race and has a high % winning trainer.
6 – Finally Captured – He has the highest last race speed rating and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
1 – Liberty for All – He was off slow in his last race as the favorite and disappointed, should improve with Lasix added and has a good 5F workout on May-12.
Longshot:
5 – Upfor Parole – He has a trainer who wins 29% of the races when taking a horse from a maiden race to maiden claiming race.
Alternate:
2 – Uptown Shoes
4 – Carrickmacross
Bet: $.50 Trifecta: 1,3,6/1,3,6/1,3,5,6
Race 4
2 – What’s to Blame – He has won two races in a row at PARX Racing, was claimed by a trainer who wins 26% of the races in his 1st after claiming a horse and has a high % winning jockey.
4 – Somebody – He has also won two races in a row at PARX Racing and has a high % winning trainer.
3 – Runningforhome – He won his last race at PARX Racing and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
Longshot:
5 – Jump for Alex – He drops in class today, has the highest speed figure at today’s distance and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Alternate:
1 – Therisastormbrewin
6 – Mucho Macho Eddie
Bet: – $.50 Pick 4 – 4th race # 2,4 – 5th race #10 – 6th race #5,6,7 – 7th #1,2,7
Race 5
10 – White Lilacs – She has a perfect record at PARX Racing winning two out of two starts, drops in class today and can improve at the shorter distance.
8 – Distorted View – She drops in class today and her best turf speed is fastest among today’s starters.
5 – Cash On First – She can improve at the shorter distance and returning to Turf may also help.
Longshot:
1 – Misquillo – She finished 2nd in her last race has a high % winning trainer who wins 28% of races when taking a horse from dirt to turf.
Alternate:
6 – La Neblina
Bet: $8.00 Win: #10
Race 6
7 – Carmelina – She is a first – time starter, has a good 4F workout on May-16 and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
5 – Kiss for Luck – She is a first – time starter whose Dam has 5 winners from 5 starters and 2 stakes winners, has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
6 – Mii Amo – She has a high % winning trainer and blinkers are added today.
Longshot:
2 – Divine Magic – She showed an early foot in her debut race and faded at the end so adding blinkers today may help.
Alternate:
4 – One Eyed Jackie
1 – Wild Creation
Bet: None
Race 7
7 – Without a View – She is going for a 2nd win in a row and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
2 – Purrfect Mistress – She won her last race at PARX Racing and has the highest speed figure at today’s distance.
1 – Twirling Wind – She finished 3rd vs similar in her last race and the rail post is winning at 22% clip.
Longshot:
3 – Mazal Eighteen – She drops in class today, switches to a high % winning jockey and her best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Alternate:
4 – Don’t Tell Frankie
Bet: – $.50 Pick 4 – 7th #1,2,7 – 8th race # 6,7,9 – 9th race #1,2,7- 10th #2,4,9
Race 8
9 – Blunt Force – She finished 3rd vs similar in her last race, has a high % winning jockey and has the highest speed figure at today’s distance.
6 – Beyond a Million – She has won two of her last three races at PARX Racing and has a trainer who wins 50% of the races when taking a horse from a sprint-route-sprint.
7 – Valerie First – She finished in the money in five races out of her last five starts, winning two of the races and she has a high % winning trainer.
Longshot:
3 – Summary Judgment – She won her last race at PARX Racing.
Alternate:
4 – Lean On E
Bet: None
Race 9
1 – Palm Island – He won his last race at PARX Racing and has a high % winning trainer and jockey.
7 – Midlaner – He was bumped and did not finish his last race so I will throw that one out, prior to that he finished in the money in eight out of nine races, winning two races and has a high % winning trainer.
2 – Iconic Legacy – He has won three out of the last six starts at PARX Racing and his best dirt speed is fastest among today’s starters.
Longshot:
6 – Wizky’s On the Bay – He likes PARX Racing finishing in the money in 58% of the races and likes the distance finishing in the money in 85% of the races and winning 29% of the starts.
Alternate:
4 – Quick Return
3 – Commissioner G
Bet: None
Race 10
4 – Bustin Up – He won his last race at Tampa Bay Downs and switches to a high % winning jockey.
2 – Esor – He has won two races out of the last three races and a high % winning jockey.
9 – Our Mark Steven – He finished 3rd (on Dirt) in his last race, winning the prior race.
Longshot:
7 – Strawberry Cone – He won his last race at PARX Racing.
Alternate:
1 – Gambling Tzar
10 – Sovereign Change
Bet: None
Rich’s Ranks
Race 1: 4 ½ Furlongs – Bias: 1 Race won by a closer from PP 4-7
6 – HARP’S HOT CORNER – hanging my hat on May 9th work at Parx, 4f in 47.4 – fastest of 28
2 – HEAVY TIMBER – only experienced horse in the race – was 8/5 favorite, maybe improves in race #2
5 – YO YO CANDY – a pair of nice works getting prepped for today
7 – BALI AMOUR – we’ll go with the 7 over the 1 as the 7 has been working at Parx and the 1 at Penn
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Superfecta: 6/2,5/2,5,7/ALL
Race 2: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed – 37% w2w – PP: Outside in Bias, 8+ Bonus
4 – SEAMIALAUGH – down in class and last was better than the finish with better fractions
1 – PENANCE – TLRSP# and better ATB in first race off the claim for tr Angel Castillo Sanchez, maybe continued improvement today for new trainer
2 – REITERATE – down in class and consistent performer, some in race regression last out
3 – MRS. CREWS – last two workout were the best back to back works in more than 18-months – including bullet and go – we’ll take the flyer
Suggested Wager: $1 Key Box: 3/1,2,7
Race 3: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed – 37% w2w – PP: Outside in Bias, 8+ Bonus
1 – LIBERTY FOR ALL – flashed some EP in debut as 6/5 favorite – first Lasix and a pair of good, swift works between races
6 – FINALLY CAPTURED – TLRSP#, improved ATB and upped speed number in both after debut, maybe more in third start with PACO riding
3 – HOLY MOLY MOSES – Sofia Vives just keeps on winning – consistent effort in debut, 3 good works since debut,
5 – UPFOR PAROLE – tough call over the 2, but he is MSW and 2 been trying his luck in MCL with no luck
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Trifecta: 1,6/1,3,6/1,2,3,5,6
Race 4: 1 Mile 70 Yards – Bias: Tactical Speed – 29% w2w – PP: Rail Bonus, 2-7 Fair, 8+ Penalty
3 – RUNNINGFORHOME – I like it when the tr and owner are the same, especially when he has two horses in the same race and doesn’t own the other – #5
2 – WHAT’S TO BLAME – TLRSP# and 1st off the claim for tr Michael Simone – 26% winner, hasn’t come close to winning at this level of late
4 – SOMEBODY – won two in a row – both at today’s distance 5/2-1-1 – stepping up in class too
5 – JUMP FOR ALEX – tough call over the 1, both are running at the lowest level in last 10, but the 1 looks like it doesn’t care for Parx at all in the first two trips after dropping in from NYRA
Suggested Wager: $1 Exacta Key Box: 3/2,4,5
Race 5: 7 ½ F Turf – Bias – 1 Race Yesterday, won by Tactical Speed – PP: 4
10 – WHITE LILACS – been off since October, has won off the break, but never been off this long, two for two on Parx grass which includes the first off the bench W
8 – DISTORTED VIEW – lowest level in last 10 – Sofia – weight break, most consistent performer
1 – MISQUILLO – should be closing and has done OK on turf at this level
9 – MY MASTERPIECE also off since October, OK works and decent turf record
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Trifecta: 1,8,10/8,10/1,5,8,9,10
Race 6: 4 ½ Furlongs – Bias: 1 Race won by a closer from PP 4-7
7 – CARMELINA – best work series of 1st timers, like Aprill 22 work 3f in 35.2, suggests she get out quickly
5 – KISS FOR LUCK – second best works for 1st timers IMO, also has a fast 3f and nice 4f in 48.1 on May 9
2 – DIVINE MAGIC – showed some EP in debut and fades, going to try blinkers today
6 – MII AMO – Pennington and Serivs winner 6/12 together – would have like to see a maintenance work post debut
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Trifecta: 5,7/2,5,6,7/2,4,5,6,7
Race 7: 7 Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed – 32% w2w – PP: Strong Inside 3 Bias, 4-7 better than 8+
2 – PURRFECT MISTRESS – quicker fractions last out, distance 5/2-2-0 – stepping up a little in class
7 – WITHOUT A VIEW – same fractions early, faster fractions late at 7f v 6f with Sofia
3 – MAZAL EIGHTEEN – dropping in class, lowest level in last 10 – horse is all over the place – most upside and downside in the group
4 – DON’T TELL FRANKIE – of those left, the most success at the odd ball distance
Suggested Wager: $0.50 Pick 4: 2,3,7/4,6,9/1,2,4,7/4,5,10
Race 8: 7 Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed – 32% w2w – PP: Strong Inside 3 Bias, 4-7 better than 8+
6 – BEYOND A MILLION – TLRSP# – all or nothing at Parx – 14/6-0-0
9 – BLUNT FORCE – just missed at this level last out, distance 9/2-2-3, tr Michael Simone 29% second off the claim and 28% with BTN FAV
4 – LEAN ON E – drops in class, a ½ length from winning last two 1st up efforts
5 – FAST INTENTIONS – good overlay, 3SP# increases, better ATB in last
Race 9: 6 Furlongs – Bias: Tactical Speed – 37% w2w – PP: Outside in Bias, 8+ Bonus
7 – MIDLANER – probably top performer in the field, fell in its last race as the FAV – if he isn’t hurt
2 – ICONIC LEGACY – dropping off a win, trainer Linder Louis, Jr 2 for 2 on dropping in class off a win
1 – PALM ISLAND – coming off the maiden win after coming in from Monmouth and GP – out of the Todd Pletcher barn
4 – QUICK RETURN – track dropper from NYRA – bullet and go work at Parx before 1st Parx try
Race 10: 1 Mile 70 Yard Turf – Yesterday – Tactical Speed from PP 5
10 – SOVEREIGN CHANGE – won maiden in 6th try in first and only grass go, interesting that Paco is here and not on the 5, who he rode last out
4 – BUSTIN UP – comes in from a successful meet at Tampa and the Jose Delgado barn, missed by a nose in his lone Parx turf try
5 – BRINDISI – 3rd off the break, dropping in class and trying turf, tried this approach in last 3 race cycle, turf run didn’t go well but was versus 100k NGSTK company at Monmouth, this isn’t that
1 – GAMBLING TZAR – also coming in from Tampa, last was better than in looks with better early fractions
